Assimilation of reprocessed ERS scatterometer data into ECMWF weather analysis on the Mediterranean Sea

International audienceSince the launch of ERS-1 in 1991 and ERS-2 in 1995, carrying a C-band Scatterometer, a data set of more than thirteen years of backscattered signal from the Earth surface is available for exploitation. With its global coverage, day or night and all-weather operation, ERS Scatterometer data offer unique opportunity for long-term studies and research. To fulfill the needs of the scientific community, the European Space Agency (ESA) has developed the project: Advanced Scatterometer Processing System (ASPS). Main scope of the project is to provide with state-of-the-art algorithm, high quality and homogenous Scatterometer measurements (sigma nought) of the Earth surface and high quality wind field over the Oceans by re-processing the entire ERS mission. Additional scope is to provide on experimental basis scientific products in high resolution tailored for the emerging Scatterometer application on Ice and Land. The ASPS project is now in a pre-operational phase and the scope of the paper is to give to the scientific community an overview of the ASPS data and show the assimilation of the data into the ECMWF weather analysis system. ASPS data hopefully will help the scientific community to better understand and monitor the Earth's climate changes and to protect our environment

The role of the stratospheric polar vortex for the austral jet response to greenhouse gas forcing

Future shifts of the austral midlatitude jet are subject to large uncertainties in climate model projections. Here we show that, in addition to other previously identified sources of inter-model uncertainty, changes in the timing of the stratospheric polar vortex breakdown modulate the austral jet response to greenhouse gas forcing during summertime (December-February). The relationship is such that a larger delay in vortex breakdown favors a more poleward jet shift, with an estimated 0.7-0.8-degree increase in jet shift per 10 days delay in vortex breakdown. The causality of the link between the timing of the vortex breakdown and the tropospheric jet response is demonstrated through climate modeling experiments with imposed changes in the seasonality of the stratospheric polar vortex. The vortex response is estimated to account for about 30% of the inter-model variance in the shift of the summertime austral jet, and about 45% of the mean jet shift

On the effect of ensemble size on the discrete and continuous ranked probability scores

Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological SocietyFour recent papers have investigated the effects of ensemble size on the Brier score (BS) and discrete ranked probability score (RPS) attained by ensemble-based probabilistic forecasts. The connections between these papers are described and their results are generalized. In particular, expressions, explanations and estimators for the expected effect of ensemble size on the RPS and continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) are obtained. Copyright (c) 2008 Royal Meteorological Society

An improved estimate of daily precipitation from the ERA5 reanalysis

Precipitation is an essential climate variable and a fundamental part of theglobal water cycle. Given its importance to society, precipitation is oftenassessed in climate monitoring activities, such as in those led by the Coperni-cus Climate Change Service (C3S). To undertake these activities, C3S predomi-nantly uses ERA5 reanalysis precipitation. Research has shown that short-range forecasts for precipitation made from this reanalysis can provide valu-able estimates of the actual (observed) precipitation in extratropical regionsbut can be less useful in the tropics. While some of these limitations will bereduced with future reanalyses because of the latest advancements, there ispotentially a more immediate way to improve the precipitation estimate.This is to use the precipitation modelled in the Four-Dimensional Variational(4D-Var) data assimilation window of the reanalysis, and it is the aim of thisstudy to evaluate this approach. Using observed 24-h precipitation accumula-tions at 5637 stations from 2001 to 2020, results show that smaller root-mean-square errors (RMSEs) and mean absolute errors are generally foundby using the ERA5 4D-Var precipitation. For example, for all available daysfrom 2001 to 2020, 87.5% of stations have smaller RMSEs. These improvementsare driven by reduced random errors in the 4D-Var precipitation because it isbetter constrained by observations, which are themselves sensitive to orinfluence precipitation. However, there are regions (e.g., Europe) where largerbiases occur, and via the decomposition of the Stable Equitable Error inProbability Space score, this is shown to be because the 4D-Var precipitationhas a wetter bias on ‘dry’ days than the standard ERA5 short-range forecasts.The findings also highlight that the 4D-Var precipitation does improve thediscrimination of ‘heavy’ observed events. In conclusion, an improved ERA5precipitation estimate is largely obtainable, and these results could proveuseful for C3S activities and for future reanalyses, including ERA

Airmass analysis of the processes driving the progression of the Indian summer monsoon

The Indian summer monsoon is a vital source of water and a cause of severe impacts for more than a billion people in the Indian subcontinent. The INCOMPASS project investigates the mechanisms driving its onset and progression through an observational field campaign supplemented by high‐resolution numerical simulations for the 2016 season using UK Met Office models. A 4.4 km resolution convection‐permitting limited‐area model simulation (driven at its boundaries by a daily‐initialised global model) is used in this study, and verified against observations, along with short‐lead‐time operational global forecasts. These data show that the monsoon progression towards northwest India in June 2016 is a non‐steady process, modulated by the interaction between moist low‐level southwesterly flow from the Arabian Sea and a northwesterly incursion of descending dry air from western and central Asia. The location and extent of these two flows are closely linked to midlatitude dynamics, through the southward propagation of potential vorticity streamers and the associated formation of cyclonic circulations in the region where the two airmasses interact. Particular focus is devoted to the use of Lagrangian trajectories to characterise the evolution of the airstreams and complement the Eulerian monsoon progression analysis. The trajectories confirm that the interaction of the two airstreams is a primary driver of the general moistening of the troposphere associated with monsoon progression. They also indicate the occurrence of local diabatic processes along the airstreams, such as turbulent mixing and local evaporation from the Arabian Sea, in addition to moisture transport from remote sources. In summary, this combined Eulerian–Lagrangian analysis reveals the non‐steady nature of monsoon progression towards northwest India. This process is driven by the interaction of different airmasses and influenced by a synergy of factors on a variety of scales, such as midlatitude dynamics, transient weather systems and local diabatic processes

Comparison of Geophysical Model Functions for SAR Wind Speed Retrieval in Japanese Coastal Waters

Abstract: This work discusses the accuracies of geophysical model functions (GMFs) for retrieval of sea surface wind speed from satellite-borne Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images in Japanese coastal waters characterized by short fetches and variable atmospheric stability conditions. In situ observations from two validation sites, Hiratsuka and Shirahama, are used for comparison of the retrieved sea surface wind speeds using CMOD (C-band model)4, CMOD_IFR2, CMOD5 and CMOD5.N. Of all the geophysical model functions (GMFs), the latest C-band GMF, CMOD5.N, has the smallest bias and root mean square error at both sites. All of the GMFs exhibit a negative bias in the retrieved wind speed. In order to understand the reason for this bias, all SAR-retrieved wind speeds are separated into two categories: onshore wind (blowing from sea to land) and offshore wind (blowing from land to sea). Only offshore winds were found to exhibit the large negative bias, and short fetches from the coastline may be a possible reason for this. Moreover, it is clarified that in both the unstable and stable conditions, CMOD5.N has atmospheric stability effectiveness, and can keep the same accuracy with CMOD5 in the neutral condition. In short, at the moment, CMOD5.N is thought to be the most promising GM

Observed transport variability of the Atlantic Subtropical Cells and their impact on tropical sea-surface temperature variability

The Atlantic Subtropical Cells (STCs) are shallow wind-driven overturning circulations connecting the tropical upwelling areas with the subtropical subduction regions. In both hemispheres they are characterized by equatorward transport at thermocline level, upwelling at the equator and poleward Ekman transport in the surface layer. STCs are suggested to impact sea surface temperature variability in tropical upwelling regions on interannual to decadal time scales through the variability either in STC transport and/or hydrographic properties. Here we present a 21st century mean state of the horizontal branches of the Atlantic STCs. Argo float data and repeated ship sections show that the equatorward part of the STCs can be observed between the 26.0 kg m-3 isopycnal and a seasonally varying upper boundary (30-70 m). Transport estimates within this layer reveal that the southern hemisphere contributes about 3 times more to the transport convergence between 10°N and 10°S than the northern hemisphere. In contrast, poleward transports in the surface layer driven by the Ekman divergence are rather symmetric. Overall, a residual transport of about 3 Sv remains. This missing transport could either be linked to diapycnal transport across the 26.0 kg m-3 isopycnal, as part of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation which partly upwells in the tropics, or to uncertainties of the transport estimates, particularly at the western boundary at 10°N. From 2010 to 2017, both Ekman divergence and thermocline layer convergence between 10°N and 10°S suggest an increase in STC transport with a dominating contribution from the northern hemisphere. The observations further show opposing thermocline layer transports at the western boundary and in the interior basin that are partly compensating each other. Implications of the increase in STC transport and variability of the STC hydrographic variability in the tropical Atlantic will be discussed

Anisotropic etching of platinum electrodes at the onset of cathodic corrosion

Catalysis and Surface Chemistr