Tärkeiden ilmastonmuutosta ja -vaihteluita aiheuttavien prosessien mallintaminen

Greenhouse gas warming, internal climate variability and aerosol climate effects are studied and the importance to understand these key processes and being able to separate their influence on the climate is discussed. Aerosol-climate model ECHAM5-HAM and the COSMOS millennium model consisting of atmospheric, ocean and carbon cycle and land-use models are applied and results compared to measurements. Topics at focus are climate sensitivity, quasiperiodic variability with a period of 50-80 years and variability at other timescales, climate effects due to aerosols over India and climate effects of northern hemisphere mid- and high-latitude volcanic eruptions. The main findings of this work are 1) pointing out the remaining challenges in reducing climate sensitivity uncertainty from observational evidence, 2) estimates for the amplitude of a 50-80 year quasiperiodic oscillation in global mean temperature ranging from 0.03 K to 0.17 K and for its phase progression as well as the synchronising effect of external forcing, 3) identifying a power law shape S(f) ∝ f−α for the spectrum of global mean temperature with α ∼ 0.8 between multidecadal and El Nino timescales with a smaller exponent in modelled climate without external forcing, 4) separating aerosol properties and climate effects in India by season and location 5) the more efficient dispersion of secondary sulfate aerosols than primary carbonaceous aerosols in the simulations, 6) an increase in monsoon rainfall in northern India due to aerosol light absorption and a probably larger decrease due to aerosol dimming effects and 7) an estimate of mean maximum cooling of 0.19 K due to larger northern hemisphere mid- and high-latitude volcanic eruptions. The results could be applied or useful in better isolating the human-caused climate change signal, in studying the processes further and in more detail, in decadal climate prediction, in model evaluation and in emission policy design in India and other Asian countries.Ilmastonmuutosta ja ilmastonvaihteluita tutkittiin erilaisilla ilmastomalleilla, päätyökalujen ollessa Max Planck Institutilla kehitetty aerosolimalli ja ilmastojärjestelmämalli, joita ajetaan supertietokoneilla. Aiheet liittyivät ilmaston lämpenemiseen kasvihuonekaasujen takia, ilmaston sisäiseen vaihteluun sekä pienhiukkasten ilmastovaikutuksiin. Väitöskirjan päätuloksia: 1) Ilmaston herkkyys, eli maapallon keskilämpötilan kohoaminen hiilidioksidipitoisuuden kaksinkertaistuessa, on edelleen epävarma suure ja etenkin suurten arvojen poissulkeminen on vaikeaa havaintojen perusteella. Tämän takia tietyllä hiilidioksidipitoisuudella ilmaston lämpeneminen on jollakin todennäköisyydellä parasta arviota huomattavasti voimakkaampaa, 2) Maapallon ilmasto näyttäisi mittausten ja mallikokeiden perusteella muuttuvan n. 65 vuoden (50-80) kvasisäännöllisissä heilahteluissa (muiden muutosten ja vaihteluiden lisäksi). Heilahtelun amplitudi on todennäköisesti n. 0,05-0,15 astetta maapallon keskilämpötilassa ja fysikaaliset syyt liittyvät valtamerten hitaaseen dynamiikkaan, 3) Käytetty ilmastojärjestelmämalli simuloi ilmastonvaihtelut mittauksiin verrattuna hyvin eri taajuuksilla noin 65 vuoden heilahteluista 3-7 vuoden El Nino -heilahteluihin, 4) Intian ja Kiinan pienhiukkasten jakaumat ajan, paikan, hiukkasen koon ja kemiallisen koostumuksen suhteen mallisimulaatioissa nykypäästöillä sekä eräitä tulevaisuusskenaarioita käyttäen, 5) Jos pienhiukkanen muodostuu kaasusta ilmakehässä, se näyttäisi ainakin Intiassa ja Kiinassa kulkeutuvan keskimäärin kauemmaksi lähdealueistaan kuin suoraan poltto- tai mekaanisissa prosesseissa syntyvät pienhiukkaset, 6) Pohjois-Intian monsuunisateet vähenevät mallisimulaatioiden perusteella pienhiukkasten valoa himmentävästä vaikutuksesta johtuen, vaikka valon absorptio lisää sitä, 7) Arviot tietynsuuruisten pohjoisen pallonpuoliskon keski- ja korkeiden leveysasteiden tulivuorenpurkausten keskimäärin aiheuttamille ilmastovaikutuksille, mm. maksimiviileneminen 0,19 astetta pallonpuoliskon keskilämpötilassa.Uppvärmning av klimatet p.g.a. växthusgaser, intern variabilitet av klimatet och klimateffekter av aerosoler studeras och vikten av att förstå och kunna kvantifiera dessa processer diskuteras. Aerosolklimatmodellen ECHAM5-HAM och COSMOS-milleniummodellen, som består av atmosfär-, ocean- och landsanvändnings- och kolkretsloppsmodeller, tillämpas och resultat jämförs med observationer. Ämnen som avhandlingen koncentrerar sig på är klimatkänsligheten, kvasiperiodisk variabilitet med en period på 50-80 år och variabilitet med andra tidsskalor, klimateffekter och egenskaper av aerosoler i Indien och klimateffekter av vulkanutbrott vid höga och medelhöga breddgrader av det norra halvklotet. De viktigaste upptäckterna i denna avhandling är 1) påvisandet av de återstående utmaningarna i att minska osäkerheten av klimatkänsligheten uppskattad från observationer, 2)uppskattningar av amplituden av en kvasi-periodisk 50-80 årig oskillation i den globala medeltemperaturen från 0,03 K till 0,17 K samt för dess fasutveckling och den synkroniserande effekten av yttre drivningar, 3) igenkännande av ett potenslagsformat spektrum S(f) ∝ f−α för den globala medeltemperaturen med α ∼ 0.8 mellan tidsskalor av flera decennier och El Nino -tidsskalor samt en mindre exponent i simulationer utan yttre drivning, 4)åtskiljning av aerosols egenskaper och klimateffekter i Indien på basen av plats och årstid, 5) en mera effektiv spridning av primära sulfataerosoler än sekundära kolaerosoler i simulationerna, 6) en ökning i monsunsnederbörden i Indien p.g.a. absorption av ljus av aerosoler och en sannolikt större minskning p.g.a. mattning av ljus av aerosoler och 7) en uppskattning på 0,19 K för den maximala kylningen p.g.a. större vulkanutbrott på höga och medelhöga breddgrader av det norra halvklotet. Resultaten kan vara nyttiga i isolering av klimatföränd-ringssignalen orsakad av människor, i noggrannare och mer detaljerade studier av processerna, i klimatprognoser med årtiondeskala, i värdering av modeller och som stöd för politisk beslutsfattning i samband med partikelutsläpp i Indien och andra länder

Foreword: Empirical Research and the Issue of Jury Competence

Estimates from an extended Kalman filter (EKF) is used in an Iterative Learning Control (ILC) algorithm applied to a realistic two-link robot model with flexible joints. The angles seen from the arm side of the joints (arm angles) are estimated by an EKF in two ways: 1) using  measurements of angles seen from the motor side of the joints (motor angles), which normally  are the only measurements available in commercial industrial robot systems, 2) using both motor- angle and tool-acceleration measurements. The estimates are then used in an ILC algorithm. The results show that the actual arm angles are clearly improved compared to when only motor angles are used in the ILC update, even though model errors are introduced

The treatment of depression in clinical practice : A public health perspective

Depression is a major public health problem with a reported point prevalence of 5%. Depressive illness causes great suffering and disability. Effective treatment with antidepressant drugs has been available for more than 40 years. Although there has been an increase in the use of antidepressant drugs, the prevalence of their reported use among depressed individuals is between 7% and 19.7%. The principal aim of this project was to investigate the evidence for the rational use of antidepressant medication for the treatment of depression in the general population. Information about the use of antidepressants and other medication was collected from an individual-based prescription database. All the individuals included in the study were selected from this prescription database, and they were representative of the population in Jämtland county, Sweden. Medical records were used to identify indications for and the effect of antidepressant medication. The suicide cases and the controls were obtained from Statistics Sweden and the population census register, respectively. Psychiatric records were used to obtain information about received psychiatric care. Forensic toxicological analysis of the suicide cases was retrieved from the National Board of Forensic Medicine to determine to what extent the purchased medication was in the blood stream at the time of death. For a screening of depression, a questionnaire was mailed and individuals who screened positive were interviewed face-to-face for a psychiatric diagnosis of depression. The data from the prescription database was compared with the other sources of information. The incidence of dispensed antidepressant drugs doubled between 1991 and 1996. In 995 and 1996, the majority of dispensations were serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs). More than onethird did not renew their dispensation regardless type of antidepressant. For the SSRIs, more often than for the tricyclic antidepressants (TCAs), recommended doses were prescribed. Significantly more SSRI than TCA treatments continued for at least 6 months. Depression was the indication for 82% and 23% of the SSRI and TCA treatments, respectively. Twice as many SSRI-as TCA-treated depressive cases were successful. Suicide cases were dispensed drugs twice as often as the controls, and three times more suicides received psychiatric care and half of them were clinically depressed. During the 3 months prior to death 36% of the suicide cases were dispensed a psychotropic and 12% an antidepressant. About one-third of the psychotropic drugs were retrieved in post-mortem toxicology. One-quarter of the 4.5% depressed individuals in the population at study were dispensed antidepressant medication, which is a 1.2% prevalence rate for acute therapy. The prevalence rate of continuation therapy was 1.3%. In conclusion, almost every 20th individual was currently depressed but not more than one in four was prescribed an antidepressant. Modem antidepressants were mainly prescribed for the treatment of depression at recommended doses and more often, compared to the old antidepressants, provided a successful outcome. Few, if any, suicides were taking a course of antidepressants at the time of death. The increased use of antidepressants has been an improvement which has been of benefit for people afflicted with depression and may have prevented a number of suicides

A Fraudulent Affair : - Municipalities Victimization of Invoice Fraud

Det nuvarande kunskapsläget gällande fakturabedrägerier är tunt, och särskilt sådana som drabbar välfärdssystemet. Denna uppsats syftar till att öka kunskapen om fakturabedrägerier som drabbar kommuner i Skåne och deras förutsättningar att arbeta med detta. Frågeställningarna ämnar undersöka hur kommunernas fakturakontroll går till, deras upplevda problembild, hur de upptäcker och hanterar fakturabedrägerier, samt om det finns några skillnader och/eller likheter i skånska kommuners arbete med detta. Detta undersöks genom semistrukturerade intervjuer samt genom en dokumentanalys av styrdokument. I resultatet framkom att kommunerna inte upplevde sig själva som utsatta för fakturabedrägerier men att de ändå tog upp exempel där de blev utsatta för erbjudandefakturor och fakturabedrägeri efter kontakt. Om detta beror på att de inte upptäcker fakturabedrägerier eller om utsattheten är väldigt låg går inte att utröna. Kommunerna hade olika organisationer, med både centraliserade och decentraliserade arbetssätt. Det förstnämnda gav ett övergripande perspektiv för kommunen men det sistnämnda gjorde informationsvägarna inom förvaltningen kortare. Vidare forskning bör fokusera på vilken organisationsform som är mest fördelaktig för kommunernas arbete mot bedrägeri samt hur de bör väga kontrollkostnad mot kontrollnytta.The existing knowledge of invoice fraud is limited, especially regarding fraud against the welfare system. This thesis aims to enhance the knowledge of invoice fraud against municipalities in the Skåne region and their qualifications to deal with fraud. The research questions aim to clarify the municipalities' current issues with invoice fraud, how they detect and deal with invoice fraud, how the chain of control works inside municipalities and if there are any similarities or differences between municipalities and their work. These questions were explored through semi-structured interviews and a document analysis of control documents. The results showed that municipalities did not see invoice fraud as a problem but did bring up examples of fraud being committed against them. If this experience is a result of a low detection rate of fraud or if the number of fraud attempts are low can not be determined. The municipalities had different organizational structures with both centralized and decentralized structure. The first structure gave a helicopter perspective over the organization while the other gave shorter information channels inside the organization. Future work should focus on organization structure and how it can be optimized in municipalities work against fraud and further how control cost and control benefits should be weighed against each other.

A Fraudulent Affair : - Municipalities Victimization of Invoice Fraud

Det nuvarande kunskapsläget gällande fakturabedrägerier är tunt, och särskilt sådana som drabbar välfärdssystemet. Denna uppsats syftar till att öka kunskapen om fakturabedrägerier som drabbar kommuner i Skåne och deras förutsättningar att arbeta med detta. Frågeställningarna ämnar undersöka hur kommunernas fakturakontroll går till, deras upplevda problembild, hur de upptäcker och hanterar fakturabedrägerier, samt om det finns några skillnader och/eller likheter i skånska kommuners arbete med detta. Detta undersöks genom semistrukturerade intervjuer samt genom en dokumentanalys av styrdokument. I resultatet framkom att kommunerna inte upplevde sig själva som utsatta för fakturabedrägerier men att de ändå tog upp exempel där de blev utsatta för erbjudandefakturor och fakturabedrägeri efter kontakt. Om detta beror på att de inte upptäcker fakturabedrägerier eller om utsattheten är väldigt låg går inte att utröna. Kommunerna hade olika organisationer, med både centraliserade och decentraliserade arbetssätt. Det förstnämnda gav ett övergripande perspektiv för kommunen men det sistnämnda gjorde informationsvägarna inom förvaltningen kortare. Vidare forskning bör fokusera på vilken organisationsform som är mest fördelaktig för kommunernas arbete mot bedrägeri samt hur de bör väga kontrollkostnad mot kontrollnytta.The existing knowledge of invoice fraud is limited, especially regarding fraud against the welfare system. This thesis aims to enhance the knowledge of invoice fraud against municipalities in the Skåne region and their qualifications to deal with fraud. The research questions aim to clarify the municipalities' current issues with invoice fraud, how they detect and deal with invoice fraud, how the chain of control works inside municipalities and if there are any similarities or differences between municipalities and their work. These questions were explored through semi-structured interviews and a document analysis of control documents. The results showed that municipalities did not see invoice fraud as a problem but did bring up examples of fraud being committed against them. If this experience is a result of a low detection rate of fraud or if the number of fraud attempts are low can not be determined. The municipalities had different organizational structures with both centralized and decentralized structure. The first structure gave a helicopter perspective over the organization while the other gave shorter information channels inside the organization. Future work should focus on organization structure and how it can be optimized in municipalities work against fraud and further how control cost and control benefits should be weighed against each other.

ILC Applied to a Flexible Two-Link Robot Model using Sensor-Fusion-Based Estimates

Estimates from an extended Kalman filter (EKF) is used in an Iterative Learning Control (ILC) algorithm applied to a realistic two-link robot model with flexible joints. The angles seen from the arm side of the joints (arm angles) are estimated by an EKF in two ways: 1) using  measurements of angles seen from the motor side of the joints (motor angles), which normally  are the only measurements available in commercial industrial robot systems, 2) using both motor- angle and tool-acceleration measurements. The estimates are then used in an ILC algorithm. The results show that the actual arm angles are clearly improved compared to when only motor angles are used in the ILC update, even though model errors are introduced

Temperature-Dependent Optical Properties of Flexible Donor - Acceptor Polymers

Optical properties of five donor acceptor polymers of interest for light-harvesting in organic photovoltaic devices have been studied experimentally and computationally. Experimentally recorded absorption spectra in solution of the five polymers are shown to be significantly temperature-dependent. The polymers were subjected to a first-principles computational treatment using density functional theory optimizations and excitation calculations. For two of the polymers, APFO-3 and PTI-1, a methodology that accounts for a thermally induced distribution of conformations based on Boltzmann statistics is applied to produce size- and temperature-converged optical results. This provides a deeper understanding of the temperature dependence of optical properties and improves the computational predictions of absorption wavelength and intensity at experimentally accessible temperatures, as compared to results from traditional quantum chemical calculations based on optimized polymers. Together, the combined experimental and computational temperature studies elucidate and quantify the significant influence of structural flexibility on the optical absorption properties of typical donor acceptor polymers

Temperature-Dependent Optical Properties of Flexible Donor–Acceptor Polymers

Optical properties of five donor–acceptor polymers of interest for light-harvesting in organic photovoltaic devices have been studied experimentally and computationally. Experimentally recorded absorption spectra in solution of the five polymers are shown to be significantly temperature-dependent. The polymers were subjected to a first-principles computational treatment using density functional theory optimizations and excitation calculations. For two of the polymers, APFO-3 and PTI-1, a methodology that accounts for a thermally induced distribution of conformations based on Boltzmann statistics is applied to produce size- and temperature-converged optical results. This provides a deeper understanding of the temperature dependence of optical properties and improves the computational predictions of absorption wavelength and intensity at experimentally accessible temperatures, as compared to results from traditional quantum chemical calculations based on optimized polymers. Together, the combined experimental and computational temperature studies elucidate and quantify the significant influence of structural flexibility on the optical absorption properties of typical donor–acceptor polymers

Observing continental boundary-layer structure and evolution over the South African savannah using a ceilometer

The atmospheric boundary layer (BL) is the atmospheric layer coupled to the Earth's surface at relatively short timescales. A key quantity is the BL depth, which is important in many applied areas of weather and climate such as air-quality forecasting. Studying BLs in climates and biomes across the globe is important, particularly in the under-sampled southern hemisphere. The present study is based on a grazed grassland-savannah area in northwestern South Africa during October 2012-August 2014. Ceilometers are probably the cheapest method for measuring continuous aerosol profiles up to several kilometers above ground and are thus an ideal tool for long-term studies of BLs. A ceilometer-estimated BL depth is based on profiles of attenuated backscattering coefficients from atmospheric aerosols; the sharpest drop often occurs at BL top. Based on this, we developed a new method for layer detection that we call the signal-limited layer method. The new algorithm was applied to ceilometer profiles which thus classified BL into classic regime types: daytime convective mixing, and a double layer at night of surface-based stable with a residual layer above it. We employed wavelet fitting to increase successful BL estimation for noisy profiles. The layer-detection algorithm was supported by an eddy-flux station, rain gauges, and manual inspection. Diurnal cycles were often clear, with BL depth detected for 50% of the daytime typically being 1-3 km, and for 80% of the night-time typically being a few hundred meters. Variability was also analyzed with respect to seasons and years. Finally, BL depths were compared with ERA-Interim estimates of BL depth to show reassuring agreement