IODP Expedition 361 – Southern African Climates and Agulhas LGM Density Profile

IODP Expedition 361 drilled six sites (U1474 – U1479) on the southeast African margin and the Indian-Atlantic ocean gateway from 30 January to 31 March 2016. The sites, situated in the Mozambique Channel, Natal Valley, Agulhas Plateau, and Cape Basin, were targeted to reconstruct the history of the Greater Agulhas Current System over the past ~5 Ma. More specifically, the main objectives of Expedition 361 were: (i) to establish the sensitivity of the Agulhas Current to climate change during the Plio-Pleistocene in association with transient to long-term changes of high-latitude climates, tropical heat budgets, and the monsoon system; (ii) to determine the dynamics of the Indian-Atlantic gateway circulation in association with changing wind fields and migrating ocean fronts; (iii) to examine the connection of the Agulhas leakage and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation; (iv) to address the influence of the Agulhas Current on African terrestrial climates, notably rainfall patterns and river runoff, and potential links to hominid evolution. Additionally, the expedition set out to fulfill the needs of the Ancillary Project Letter, consisting of high-resolution interstitial water samples aiming at constraining the temperature and salinity profiles of the ocean during the Last Glacial Maximum. In total, 5175 m of core was recovered (average recovery 102 %) from a region poorly represented in the database of drill sites for scientific purposes. Physical property records derived from core-logging of the recovered sequences allowed complete spliced stratigraphic sections to be generated that span the interval of 0 to between ~0.13 and 7 Ma. A high-resolution program of interstitial water samples was carried out at Sites U1474, U1475, U1476, and U1478. The expedition made major strides toward fulfilling the scientific objectives despite of ~11 days of lost operational time due to weather conditions, a medical evacuation, and delays in attaining the necessary permissions to operate in Mozambique exclusive economic zone waters. Site U1474 (3034 meters below sea level [mbsl]), located in the northernmost Natal Valley, consists of eight holes ranging in penetration depth from 3.1 to 254.1 m drilling depth below seafloor (dsf). A total of 910.8 m of sediment was recovered, predominantly consisting of foraminifer-bearing clay with nannofossils. Based on the shipboard bio- and magnetistratigraphic datums, the sedimentary sequence extends back to the late Miocene (~6.2 Ma). This record represents the only site situated beneath the main flow of the fully constituted Agulhas Current and therefore provides the opportunity for high-resolution climate reconstructions of Agulhas Current warm-water transports and upstream variability that may allow the identification of connections between Agulhas leakage and its headwater variability. It also holds significant potential to investigate the connections between southern African terrestrial climates and southeast Indian Ocean heat budgets and the links to the cultural evolution of early modern humans. Site U1475 (2669 mbsl), located on the southwestern flank of the Agulhas Plateau, consists of six holes ranging in penetration depth from 1.5 to 277.0 m dsf. A total of 1015.9 m of sediment was recovered, predominantly consisting of nannofossil ooze. Shipboard bio- and magnetistratigraphic data suggest that the sedimentary sequence extends back to the late Miocene (~7 Ma). This record provides the opportunity for high-resolution climate reconstructions of the Agulhas Return Current and connections with the Sub-Tropical Front, productivity, and deep-water circulation. Site U1476 (2165 mbsl), located at the northern entrance of the Mozambique Channel, consists of five holes ranging in penetration depth from 5.7 to 234.8 m dsf. A total of 873.8 m of sediment was recovered, predominantly consisting of foraminifer-rich nannofossil ooze. The sedimentary sequence extends back to the late Miocene (~6.9 Ma), as inferred from the shiboard bio- and magnetostratigraphic data. The site boasts excellent biostratigraphy and notably cyclic physical properties. It therefore provides the opportunity for high-resolution reconstructions of tropical faunal assemblages, which will allow identification of connections be¬tween Agulhas leakage and its headwater variability. It also holds significant potential to investigate the connections between southern African terrestrial climates and southeast Indian Ocean heat budgets and thermocline and deep-water variability with likely links to the development of the Indonesian Throughflow as well as aridification of east Africa. Because of the excellent preservation of foraminifers, this an ideal site for a long record of surface-ocean pH from boron isotopes. Site U1477 (429 mbsl), located in the western Mozambique Channel east of the Zambezi River delta, consists of three holes ranging in penetration depth from 119.4 to 181.2 m dsf. A total of 490.0 m of sediment was recovered, predominantly consisting of sandy clay with foraminifers and nannofossils. Based on correlations to a nearby 14C dated cores and two biostratigrahic markers, the sedimentary sequence extends back to the Late Pleistocene (~0.13 Ma). The extreme accumulation rate (~1 m/ky) at this site provides the opportunity for exceptionally high resolution reconstructions of terrestrial climate and thermocline characteristics during the last glacial cycle. Site U1478 (488 mbsl), located in the western Mozambique Channel east of the Limpopo River delta, consists of four holes ranging in penetration depth from 216.0 to 248.4 m dsf. A total of 922.1 m of sediment was recovered, predominantly consisting of sand or clayey/sandy silt with foraminifers and nannofossils. The shipboard age-model suggests that the sedimentary sequence extends back to the Pliocene (~4 Ma). This record provides the opportunity for high-resolution climate reconstructions of faunal, biogeochemical, and terrigenous tracers that are characteristic of the upper reaches of the Agulhas Current warm-water transports that will allow connections between Agul¬has leakage and its headwater variability. The site also holds significant potential to investigate the connections between southern African terrestrial climates and southeast Indian Ocean heat budgets, and examine the relationship between such climate variability and early human evolution. Site U1479 (2615 mbsl), located in Cape Basin, consists of nine holes ranging in penetration depth from 1.0 to 300.7 m dsf. A total of 963.1 m of sediment was recovered, predominantly consisting of nannofossil ooze with or without foraminifers. According to the shipboard bio- and magnetostratigraphy-based age model, the sedimentary sequence extends back to the late Miocene (~7 Ma). This record represents the only site situated in the immediate Agulhas leakage pathway. It will therefore provide the opportunity for high-resolution climate reconstructions of the leakage and temporal comparisons with deep-water circulation

Mapping allergenic pollen vegetation in UK to study environmental exposure and human health

Allergenic pollen is produced by the flowers of a number of trees, grasses and weeds found throughout the UK. Exposure to such pollen grains can exacerbate pollen-related asthma and allergenic conditions such as allergic rhinitis (hay fever). Maps showing the location of these allergenic taxa have many applications: they can be used to provide advice on risk assessments; combined with health data to inform research on health impacts such as respiratory hospital admissions; combined with weather data to improve pollen forecasting systems; or as inputs to pollen emission models. In this study we present 1 km resolution maps of 12 taxa of trees, grass and weeds found in the UK. We have selected the main species recorded by the UK pollen network. The taxa mapped in this study were: Alnus (alder), Fraxinus (ash), Betula (birch), Corylus (hazel), Quercus (oak), Pinus (pine) and Salix (willow), Poaceae (grass), Artemisia (mugwort), Plantago (plantain), Rumex (dock, sorrels) and Urtica (nettle). We also focus on one high population centre and present maps showing local level detail around the city of London. Our results show the different geographical distributions of the 12 taxa of trees, weeds and grass, which can be used to study plants in the UK associated with allergy and allergic asthma. These maps have been produced in order to study environmental exposure and human health, although there are many possible applications. This novel method not only provides maps of many different plant types, but also at high resolution across regions of the UK, and uniquely present 12 key plant taxa using a consistent methodology. To consider the impact on human health due to exposure of the pollen grains, it is important to consider the timing of pollen release, and its dispersal, as well as the effect on air quality, which is also discussed here

Climate, Environmental and Socio-Economic Change: Weighing Up the Balance in Vector-Borne Disease Transmission

Arguably one of the most important effects of climate change is the potential impact on human health. While this is likely to take many forms, the implications for future transmission of vector-borne diseases (VBDs), given their ongoing contribution to global disease burden, are both extremely important and highly uncertain. In part, this is owing not only to data limitations and methodological challenges when integrating climate-driven VBD models and climate change projections, but also, perhaps most crucially, to the multitude of epidemiological, ecological and socio-economic factors that drive VBD transmission, and this complexity has generated considerable debate over the past 10-15 years. In this review, we seek to elucidate current knowledge around this topic, identify key themes and uncertainties, evaluate ongoing challenges and open research questions and, crucially, offer some solutions for the field. Although many of these challenges are ubiquitous across multiple VBDs, more specific issues also arise in different vector-pathogen systems

Pollen exposure and hospitalization due to asthma exacerbations: daily time series in a European city.

Exposure to pollen can contribute to increased hospital admissions for asthma exacerbation. This study applied an ecological time series analysis to examine associations between atmospheric concentrations of different pollen types and the risk of hospitalization for asthma in London from 2005 to 2011. The analysis examined short-term associations between daily pollen counts and hospital admissions in the presence of seasonal and long-term patterns, and allowed for time lags between exposure and admission. Models were adjusted for temperature, precipitation, humidity, day of week, and air pollutants. Analyses revealed an association between daily counts (continuous) of grass pollen and adult hospital admissions for asthma in London, with a 4-5-day lag. When grass pollen concentrations were categorized into Met Office pollen 'alert' levels, 'very high' days (vs. 'low') were associated with increased admissions 2-5 days later, peaking at an incidence rate ratio of 1.46 (95%, CI 1.20-1.78) at 3 days. Increased admissions were also associated with 'high' versus 'low' pollen days at a 3-day lag. Results from tree pollen models were inconclusive and likely to have been affected by the shorter pollen seasons and consequent limited number of observation days with higher tree pollen concentrations. Future reductions in asthma hospitalizations may be achieved by better understanding of environmental risks, informing improved alert systems and supporting patients to take preventive measures

Global decadal variability of plant carbon isotope discrimination and its link to gross primary production

Carbon isotope discrimination (Δ13C) in C3 woody plants is a key variable for the study of photosynthesis. Yet how Δ13C varies at decadal scales, and across regions, and how it is related to gross primary production (GPP), are still incompletely understood. Here we address these questions by implementing a new Δ13C modelling capability in the land-surface model JULES incorporating both photorespiratory and mesophyll-conductance fractionations. We test the ability of four leaf-internal CO2 concentration models embedded in JULES to reproduce leaf and tree-ring (TR) carbon isotopic data. We show that all the tested models tend to overestimate average Δ13C values, and to underestimate interannual variability in Δ13C. This is likely because they ignore the effects of soil water stress on stomatal behavior. Variations in post-photosynthetic isotopic fractionations across species, sites and years, may also partly explain the discrepancies between predicted and TR-derived Δ13C values. Nonetheless, the “least-cost” (Prentice) model shows the lowest biases with the isotopic measurements, and lead to improved predictions of canopy-level carbon and water fluxes. Overall, modelled Δ13C trends vary strongly between regions during the recent (1979–2016) historical period but stay nearly constant when averaged over the globe. Photorespiratory and mesophyll effects modulate the simulated global Δ13C trend by 0.0015 ± 0.005‰ and –0.0006 ± 0.001‰ ppm−1, respectively. These predictions contrast with previous findings based on atmospheric carbon isotope measurements. Predicted Δ13C and GPP tend to be negatively correlated in wet-humid and cold regions, and in tropical African forests, but positively related elsewhere. The negative correlation between Δ13C and GPP is partly due to the strong dominant influences of temperature on GPP and vapor pressure deficit on Δ13C in those forests. Our results demonstrate that the combined analysis of Δ13C and GPP can help understand the drivers of photosynthesis changes in different climatic regions

Strong glacial-interglacial variability in upper ocean hydrodynamics, biogeochemistry, and productivity in the southern Indian Ocean

In the southern Indian Ocean, the position of the subtropical front - the boundary between colder, fresher waters to the south and warmer, saltier waters to the north - has a strong influence on the upper ocean hydrodynamics and biogeochemistry. Here we analyse a sedimentary record from the Agulhas Plateau, located close to the modern position of the subtropical front and use alkenones and coccolith assemblages to reconstruct oceanographic conditions over the past 300,000 years. We identify a strong glacial-interglacial variability in sea surface temperature and productivity associated with subtropical front migration over the Agulhas Plateau, as well as shorter-term high frequency variability aligned with variations in high latitude insolation. Alkenone and coccolith abundances, in combination with diatom and organic carbon records indicate high glacial export productivity. We conclude that the biological pump was more efficient and strengthened during glacial periods, which could partly account for the reported reduction in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. Migration of the Subtropical Front during glacial and interglacial periods resulted in variability in the strength of the biological pump in the Southern Ocean sector of the Indian Ocean, according to sedimentary records from the Agulhas Plateau.This work used samples and data provided by the IODP. We are thankful for the support from the crew of the R/V JOIDES Resolution and IODP staff. This work is funded through the Universidad de Salamanca Postdoctoral Contract supported by the Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades Grant RTI2018-099489-B-I00 and the German Science Foundation (DFG) Research Center/Cluster of Excellence ‘The Ocean in the Earth System' (MARUM; Grant No. 49926684). We acknowledge financial support from the National Science Foundation of the US under Award No. 1737218 (M.A.B), the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme under the Marie Sklodowska Curie Grant Agreement No. 799531 (M.S.P.), and the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation Grant CTM2017-89711-C2-1-P, co-funded by the European Union through FEDER funds (F.J.J.E.

Spatio‐Temporal Variations in Carbon Isotope Discrimination Predicted by the JULES Land Surface Model

Stable carbon isotopes in plants can help evaluate and improve the representation of carbon and water cycles in land-surface models, increasing confidence in projections of vegetation response to climate change. Here, we evaluated the predictive skills of the Joint UK Land Environmental Simulator (JULES) to capture spatio-temporal variations in carbon isotope discrimination (Δ13C) reconstructed by tree rings at 12 sites in the United Kingdom over the period 1979–2016. Modeled and measured Δ13C time series were compared at each site and their relationships with local climate investigated. Modeled Δ13C time series were significantly correlated (p < 0.05) with tree-ring Δ13C at eight sites, but JULES underestimated mean Δ13C values at all sites, by up to 2.6‰. Differences in mean Δ13C may result from post-photosynthetic isotopic fractionations that were not considered in JULES. Inter-annual variability in Δ13C was also underestimated by JULES at all sites. While modeled Δ13C typically increased over time across the UK, tree-ring Δ13C values increased only at five sites located in the northern regions but decreased at the southern-most sites. Considering all sites together, JULES captured the overall influence of environmental drivers on Δ13C but failed to capture the direction of change in Δ13C caused by air temperature, atmospheric CO2 and vapor pressure deficit at some sites. Results indicate that the representation of carbon-water coupling in JULES could be improved to reproduce both the trend and magnitude of interannual variability in isotopic records, the influence of local climate on Δ13C, and to reduce uncertainties in predicting vegetation-environment interactions

The last 1 million years of the extinct genus Discoaster: Plio–Pleistocene environment and productivity at Site U1476 (Mozambique Channel)

A detailed paleoenvironment reconstruction from the Mozambique Channel, western Indian Ocean, based on the calcareous nannoplankton assemblages was conducted for the interval between 2.85 and 1.85 Myr. This study covers the period during which the successive extinction of the last five species of discoasters occurred. New productivity data obtained from the abundances of the Discoaster species (Discoaster brouweri, D. triradiatus, D. pentaradiatus, D. surculus, and D. tamalis) and other indicative calcareous nannoplankton taxa showed abundance variations, which were at paced with the 100, 41, and 23 kyr astronomical periodicities. A shift in the productivity and water-column stratification proxies occurred at ~2.4 Ma, after the onset of the Northern Hemisphere glaciation. Here we propose that the variability recorded at International Ocean Discovery Program Site U1476 reflects the interplay between forcing associated with warm tropical Pacific and cold southern ocean influences. The former is shown by consistent occurrence of warm water taxa (Calcidiscus leptoporus, Oolithotus spp., Rhabdosphaera clavigera, Syracosphaera spp., Umbellosphaera spp.), typical of Indonesian Throughflow surface waters. On the other hand, the occurrence of Coccolithus pelagicus indicates the influence of cold, nutrient-rich sub-Antarctic surface waters. A more mixed water column initiated at ~2.4 Ma, and a consequent productivity increase led to the gradual reduction of the Discoaster species, until their extinction at 1.91 Ma. This period was characterized by the low values of the Florisphaera profunda index and high abundances of upper photic zone flora, indicative of nutrient-rich surface water conditions. High productivity at the location during this period could have also been amplified by localized upwelling events driven by the Mozambique Channel eddies

Conducting robust ecological analyses with climate data

Although the number of studies discerning the impact of climate change on ecological systems continues to increase, there has been relatively little sharing of the lessons learnt when accumulating this evidence. At a recent workshop entitled ‘Using climate data in ecological research’ held at the UK Met Office, ecologists and climate scientists came together to discuss the robust analysis of climate data in ecology. The discussions identified three common pitfalls encountered by ecologists: 1) selection of inappropriate spatial resolutions for analysis; 2) improper use of publically available data or code; and 3) insufficient representation of the uncertainties behind the adopted approach. Here, we discuss how these pitfalls can be avoided, before suggesting ways that both ecology and climate science can move forward. Our main recommendation is that ecologists and climate scientists collaborate more closely, on grant proposals and scientific publications, and informally through online media and workshops. More sharing of data and code (e.g. via online repositories), lessons and guidance would help to reconcile differing approaches to the robust handling of data. We call on ecologists to think critically about which aspects of the climate are relevant to their study system, and to acknowledge and actively explore uncertainty in all types of climate data. And we call on climate scientists to make simple estimates of uncertainty available to the wider research community. Through steps such as these, we will improve our ability to robustly attribute observed ecological changes to climate or other factors, while providing the sort of influential, comprehensive analyses that efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change so urgently require

Multisectoral Climate Impact Hotspots in a Warming World

The impacts of global climate change on different aspects of humanity's diverse life-support systems are complex and often difficult to predict. To facilitate policy decisions on mitigation and adaptation strategies, it is necessary to understand, quantify, and synthesize these climate-change impacts, taking into account their uncertainties. Crucial to these decisions is an understanding of how impacts in different sectors overlap, as overlapping impacts increase exposure, lead to interactions of impacts, and are likely to raise adaptation pressure. As a first step we develop herein a framework to study coinciding impacts and identify regional exposure hotspots. This framework can then be used as a starting point for regional case studies on vulnerability and multifaceted adaptation strategies. We consider impacts related to water, agriculture, ecosystems, and malaria at different levels of global warming. Multisectoral overlap starts to be seen robustly at a mean global warming of 3 degC above the 1980-2010 mean, with 11% of the world population subject to severe impacts in at least two of the four impact sectors at 4 degC. Despite these general conclusions, we find that uncertainty arising from the impact models is considerable, and larger than that from the climate models. In a low probability-high impact worst-case assessment, almost the whole inhabited world is at risk for multisectoral pressures. Hence, there is a pressing need for an increased research effort to develop a more comprehensive understanding of impacts, as well as for the development of policy measures under existing uncertainty