The Retail FX Trader: Random Trading and the Negative Sum Game

With the internet boom of early 2000 making access to trading the Foreign Exchange (FX) market far simpler for members of the general public, the growth of 'retail' FX trading continues, with daily transaction volumes as high as $200 billion. Potential new entrants to the retail FX trading world may come from the recent UK pension deregulations, further increasing the volumes. The attraction of FX trading is that it offers high returns and whilst it has been understood that it is high-risk in nature, the rewards are seen as being commensurately high for the 'skilled and knowledgeable' trader who has an edge over other market participants. This paper analyses a number of independent sources of data and previous research, to examine the profitability of the Retail FX trader and compares the results with that of a simulated random trading models. This paper finds evidence to suggest that whilst approximately 20% of traders can expect to end up with a profitable account, around 40% might expect their account to be subject to a margin call. This paper finds a strong correlation between the overall profitability of traders and impact of the cost of the bid-ask spread, whilst finding little if any evidence that retail FX traders, when viewed as a group, are achieving results better than that from random trading

Effect of active immunization against growth hormone releasing factor on concentrations of somatotropin and insulin-like growth factor I in lactating beef cows

Two experiments were conducted to determine the effects of immunoneutralization of growth hormone-releasing factor [GRF(1–29)-NH2] on concentrations of somatotropin (ST) and insulin-like growth factor I (IGF-I) in lactating beef cows. In Experiment 1, multiparous Hereford cows were immunized against 2 mg GRF(1–29)-(Gly)4-Cys-NH2 conjugated to human serum albumin (GRFi, n=3) or 2 mg human serum albumin (HSAi, n=3) at 52 ± 1 d prior to parturition. Boosters (1 mg) were administered on days 12, 40 and 114 postpartum (pp). Serum samples were collected at 15-min intervals for 5 hr on days 18, 46 and 120 pp, followed by administration (IV) of an opioid agonist (FK33-824; 10 μg/kg) and an antagonist (naloxone; .5 mg/kg) at hours 5 and 7, respectively. A GRF-analog ([desamino-Tyr1, D-Ala2, Ala15] GRF (1–29)-NH2; 3.5 μg/kg) and arginine (.5 g/kg) were administered at hour 10 on days 47 and 121, respectively. Percentage binding of [125I]GRF (1:100 dilution of serum) 28 d after primary immunization was greater in GRFi (14.3 ± 4.9) than in HSAi (.7 ± .3) cows. Binding increased to 29.3 ± 6.5% after first booster in GRFi cows. Episodic release of ST was abolished by immunization against GRF; concentration and frequency of release of ST were lower (P125I]GRF, absence of pulsatile release of ST, low concentrations of ST and IGF-I and failure of ST to increase after IV opioid agonist or arginine

Differences in risk behaviours and HIV status between primary amphetamines and opioid injectors in Estonia and Russia

Background and objective People who inject drugs (PWID) account for over half of new HIV infections in Eastern Europe and central Asia, where opioids continue to be the dominant illicit drugs injected. Stimulants including amphetamines (ATS) have been associated with HIV infection risk in several settings. We sought to examine whether primary ATS injection was associated with greater HIV risk, compared to opioid injection in two European locales with significant HIV epidemics. Methods PWID in Kohtla-Järve and St. Petersburg were recruited using respondent-driven sampling in 2012–2013. Survey data on demographic characteristics, service use, injecting and sexual risk behaviours and HIV-status (and HCV in Kohtla-Järve) were compared between primary opioid and ATS injectors using logistic regression models. Results Of 591 injectors recruited in Kohtla-Järve and 811 in St. Petersburg, 195 (33%) and 27 (4%) primarily injected ATS in each city. In both cities, ATS injectors were younger than opioid injectors, initiated injection later, injected less frequently and were more likely to have been paid for sex. In both cities, PWID had high levels of multiple sex partners. In Kohtla-Järve, ATS-injectors had lower odds of back-loading and greater odds of polydrug use than opioid-injectors. In St. Petersburg, where over half of PWID reported unsafe sharing practices, ATS-injectors were less likely to report these practices. ATS-injection was negatively associated with being HIV positive in Kohtla-Järve (aOR = 0.6; 95%CI: 0.5–0.8) and St. Petersburg (aOR = 0.3; 95%CI: 0.1–0.7). ATS-injection was negatively associated with HCV-reactivity in Kohtla-Järve (aOR = 0.5; 95%CI: 0.3–0.6). Conclusions In both locations, primary ATS injection was associated with lower injecting risk behaviours, lower odds of HIV and being paid for sex compared to opioid injection. Interventions targeting the characteristics and needs of ATS injectors are needed to increase contact with services and reduce sexual and injecting risk. Harm reduction services, including sexual risk reduction, need to be expanded for all PWID in St. Petersburg

Alpha B-crystallin protects retinal tissue during Staphylococcus aureus-induced endophthalmitis

Bacterial infections of the eye highlight a dilemma that is central to all immune-privileged sites. On the one hand, immune privilege limits inflammation to prevent bystander destruction of normal tissue and loss of vision. On the other hand, bacterial infections require a robust inflammatory response for rapid clearance of the pathogen. We demonstrate that the retina handles this dilemma, in part, by activation of a protective heat shock protein. During Staphylococcus aureus-induced endophthalmitis, the small heat shock protein αB-crystallin is upregulated in the retina and prevents apoptosis during immune clearance of the bacteria. In the absence of αB-crystallin, mice display increased retinal apoptosis and retinal damage. We found that S. aureus produces a protease capable of cleaving αB-crystallin to a form that coincides with increased retinal apoptosis and tissue destruction. We conclude that αB-crystallin is important in protecting sensitive retinal tissue during destructive inflammation that occurs during bacterial endophthalmitis

Delta-Decision Procedures for Exists-Forall Problems over the Reals

Solving nonlinear SMT problems over real numbers has wide applications in robotics and AI. While significant progress is made in solving quantifier-free SMT formulas in the domain, quantified formulas have been much less investigated. We propose the first delta-complete algorithm for solving satisfiability of nonlinear SMT over real numbers with universal quantification and a wide range of nonlinear functions. Our methods combine ideas from counterexample-guided synthesis, interval constraint propagation, and local optimization. In particular, we show how special care is required in handling the interleaving of numerical and symbolic reasoning to ensure delta-completeness. In experiments, we show that the proposed algorithms can handle many new problems beyond the reach of existing SMT solvers

Profitable failure: antidepressant drugs and the triumph of flawed experiments

Drawing on an analysis of Irving Kirsch and colleagues? controversial 2008 article in PLoS [Public Library of Science] Medicine on the efficacy of SSRI antidepressant drugs such as Prozac, I examine flaws within the methodologies of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) that have made it difficult for regulators, clinicians and patients to determine the therapeutic value of this class of drug. I then argue, drawing analogies to work by Pierre Bourdieu and Michael Power, that it is the very limitations of RCTs ? their inadequacies in producing reliable evidence of clinical effects ? that help to strengthen assumptions of their superiority as methodological tools. Finally, I suggest that the case of RCTs helps to explore the question of why failure is often useful in consolidating the authority of those who have presided over that failure, and why systems widely recognized to be ineffective tend to assume greater authority at the very moment when people speak of their malfunction

Bi-allelic JAM2 Variants Lead to Early-Onset Recessive Primary Familial Brain Calcification.

Primary familial brain calcification (PFBC) is a rare neurodegenerative disorder characterized by a combination of neurological, psychiatric, and cognitive decline associated with calcium deposition on brain imaging. To date, mutations in five genes have been linked to PFBC. However, more than 50% of individuals affected by PFBC have no molecular diagnosis. We report four unrelated families presenting with initial learning difficulties and seizures and later psychiatric symptoms, cerebellar ataxia, extrapyramidal signs, and extensive calcifications on brain imaging. Through a combination of homozygosity mapping and exome sequencing, we mapped this phenotype to chromosome 21q21.3 and identified bi-allelic variants in JAM2. JAM2 encodes for the junctional-adhesion-molecule-2, a key tight-junction protein in blood-brain-barrier permeability. We show that JAM2 variants lead to reduction of JAM2 mRNA expression and absence of JAM2 protein in patient's fibroblasts, consistent with a loss-of-function mechanism. We show that the human phenotype is replicated in the jam2 complete knockout mouse (jam2 KO). Furthermore, neuropathology of jam2 KO mouse showed prominent vacuolation in the cerebral cortex, thalamus, and cerebellum and particularly widespread vacuolation in the midbrain with reactive astrogliosis and neuronal density reduction. The regions of the human brain affected on neuroimaging are similar to the affected brain areas in the myorg PFBC null mouse. Along with JAM3 and OCLN, JAM2 is the third tight-junction gene in which bi-allelic variants are associated with brain calcification, suggesting that defective cell-to-cell adhesion and dysfunction of the movement of solutes through the paracellular spaces in the neurovascular unit is a key mechanism in CNS calcification

Evaluation of Needle Exchange Programs

Needle exchange programs exist in every major population area in the United States and in many other countries. Some operate legally under emergency health decrees issued by local departments of health, with the stated intention of risk reduction through the removal of used injection equipment from use by injection drug users. It is theorized that this results in a reduced transmission of human immunodeficiency virus, hepatitis, and, possibly, other blood-borne diseases. Needle exchange programs also offer access to drug treatment programs for the participants. It is a difficult but necessary task to evaluate these programs. This article examines examples of evaluations attempted in the past and discusses the challenges of such evaluations. Experimental evaluations, economic program analysis, legal aspects, and risk–benefit assessment along with ethical aspects are considered. An outline of program evaluation is proposed. Needle exchange programs offer an opportunity to encourage risk reduction and to offer counseling and access to health care for individuals at high risk. It is essential that such programs demonstrate their effectiveness. Assumptions of efficacy are insufficient for health care in the twenty-first century