The open future, bivalence and assertion

It is highly intuitive that the future is open and the past is closed—whereas it is unsettled whether there will be a fourth world war, it is settled that there was a first. Recently, it has become increasingly popular to claim that the intuitive openness of the future implies that contingent statements about the future, such as ‘there will be a sea battle tomorrow,’ are non-bivalent (neither true nor false). In this paper, we argue that the non-bivalence of future contingents is at odds with our pre-theoretic intuitions about the openness of the future. These are revealed by our pragmatic judgments concerning the correctness and incorrectness of assertions of future contingents. We argue that the pragmatic data together with a plausible account of assertion shows that in many cases we take future contingents to be true (or to be false), though we take the future to be open in relevant respects. It follows that appeals to intuition to support the non-bivalence of future contingents is untenable. Intuition favours bivalence

Precis of epistemic angst:Book Symposium: Duncan Pritchard, Epistemic Angst (Princeton University Press, 2015, xiii + 236 pages)

ABSTRACT This book symposium features three critical pieces dealing with Duncan Pritchard's book, 'Epistemic Angst'; the symposium also contains Pritchard's replies to his critics

Modal Ω-Logic: Automata, Neo-Logicism, and Set-Theoretic Realism

This essay examines the philosophical significance of $\Omega$-logic in Zermelo-Fraenkel set theory with choice (ZFC). The duality between coalgebra and algebra permits Boolean-valued algebraic models of ZFC to be interpreted as coalgebras. The modal profile of $\Omega$-logical validity can then be countenanced within a coalgebraic logic, and $\Omega$-logical validity can be defined via deterministic automata. I argue that the philosophical significance of the foregoing is two-fold. First, because the epistemic and modal profiles of $\Omega$-logical validity correspond to those of second-order logical consequence, $\Omega$-logical validity is genuinely logical, and thus vindicates a neo-logicist conception of mathematical truth in the set-theoretic multiverse. Second, the foregoing provides a modal-computational account of the interpretation of mathematical vocabulary, adducing in favor of a realist conception of the cumulative hierarchy of sets

Parity-violating Electron Deuteron Scattering and the Proton's Neutral Weak Axial Vector Form Factor

We report on a new measurement of the parity-violating asymmetry in quasielastic electron scattering from the deuteron at backward angles at Q2= 0.038 (GeV/c)2. This quantity provides a determination of the neutral weak axial vector form factor of the nucleon, which can potentially receive large electroweak corrections. The measured asymmetry A=-3.51 +/- 0.57(stat) +/- 0.58(sys)ppm is consistent with theoretical predictions. We also report on updated results of the previous experiment at Q2=0.091 (GeV/c)2, which are also consistent with theoretical predictions.Comment: 4 pages, 2 figures, submitted to Phys. Rev. Let

Parity-violating Electron Deuteron Scattering and the Proton's Neutral Weak Axial Vector Form Factor

We report on a new measurement of the parity-violating asymmetry in quasielastic electron scattering from the deuteron at backward angles at Q2= 0.038 (GeV/c)2. This quantity provides a determination of the neutral weak axial vector form factor of the nucleon, which can potentially receive large electroweak corrections. The measured asymmetry A=-3.51 +/- 0.57(stat) +/- 0.58(sys)ppm is consistent with theoretical predictions. We also report on updated results of the previous experiment at Q2=0.091 (GeV/c)2, which are also consistent with theoretical predictions.Comment: 4 pages, 2 figures, submitted to Phys. Rev. Let

Can we derive an 'exchange rate' between descriptive and preference-based outcome measures for stroke? Results from the transfer to utility (TTU) technique

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Stroke-specific outcome measures and descriptive measures of health-related quality of life (HRQoL) are unsuitable for informing decision-makers of the broader consequences of increasing or decreasing funding for stroke interventions. The quality-adjusted life year (QALY) provides a common metric for comparing interventions over multiple dimensions of HRQoL and mortality differentials. There are, however, many circumstances when – because of timing, lack of foresight or cost considerations – only stroke-specific or descriptive measures of health status are available and some indirect means of obtaining QALY-weights becomes necessary. In such circumstances, the use of regression-based transformations or mappings can circumvent the failure to elicit QALY-weights by allowing predicted weights to proxy for observed weights. This regression-based approach has been dubbed 'Transfer to Utility' (TTU) regression. The purpose of the present study is to demonstrate the feasibility and value of TTU regression in stroke by deriving transformations or mappings from stroke-specific and generic but descriptive measures of health status to a generic preference-based measure of HRQoL in a sample of Australians with a diagnosis of acute stroke. Findings will quantify the additional error associated with the use of condition-specific to generic transformations in stroke.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We used TTU regression to derive empirical transformations from three commonly used descriptive measures of health status for stroke (NIHSS, Barthel and SF-36) to a preference-based measure (AQoL) suitable for attaching QALY-weights to stroke disease states; based on 2570 observations drawn from a sample of 859 patients with stroke.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Transformations from the SF-36 to the AQoL explained up to 71.5% of variation in observed AQoL scores. Differences between mean predicted and mean observed AQoL scores from the 'severity-specific' item- and subscale-based SF-36 algorithms and from the 'moderate to severe' index- and item-based Barthel algorithm were neither clinically nor statistically significant when 'low severity' SF-36 transformations were used to predict AQoL scores for patients in the NIHSS = 0 and NIHSS = 1–5 subgroups and when 'moderate to severe severity' transformations were used to predict AQoL scores for patients in the NIHSS ≥ 6 subgroup. In contrast, the difference between mean predicted and mean observed AQoL scores from the NIHSS algorithms and from the 'low severity' Barthel algorithms reached levels that could mask minimally important differences on the AQoL scale.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>While our NIHSS to AQoL transformations proved unsuitable for most applications, our findings demonstrate that stroke-relevant outcome measures such as the SF-36 and Barthel Index can be adequately transformed to preference-based measures for the purposes of economic evaluation.</p

Health-related Quality of Life among hospitalized older people awaiting residential aged care

BACKGROUND: Health related quality of life (HRQoL) in very late life is not well understood. The aim of the present study was to assess HRQoL and health outcomes at four months follow-up in a group of older people awaiting transfer to residential aged care. METHODS: Secondary analysis of data from a randomized controlled trial conducted in three public hospitals in Adelaide. A total of 320 patients in hospital beds awaiting a residential aged care bed participated. Outcome measurements included HRQoL (Assessment of Quality of Life; AQoL), functional level (Modified Barthel Index), hospital readmission rates, survival, and place of residence at four months follow-up. RESULTS: In this frail group the median AQoL was poor at baseline (median 0.02; 95%CI -0.01 - 0.04) and at follow-up (0.05; 95%CI 0.03 - 0.06). On leaving hospital, more than one third of participants who were moving for the first time into nursing home care rated themselves in a state worse than death (AQoL < or = 0.0). Poor HRQoL at discharge from hospital (AQoL < or = 0.0) was a significant predictor of mortality (HR 1.7; 95%CI 1.2 - 2.7), but not hospital readmission nor place of residence at four months follow-up. Improved function was a predictor of improved HRQoL among the surviving cohort. CONCLUSION: People making the transition to residential aged care from hospital have very poor HRQoL, but small gains in function seem to be related to improvement. While functional gains are unlikely to change discharge destination in this frail group, they can contribute to improvements in HRQoL. These gains may be of great significance for individuals nearing the end of life and should be taken into account in resource allocation.Lynne C. Giles, Graeme Hawthorne and Maria Crott

Transformations in network governance: the case of migration intermediaries

types: Article"This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies on 3 February 2015 available online: http://wwww.tandfonline.com/10.1080/1369183X.2014.1003803Market liberalisation has fundamentally changed state interventions in the supply of services and supportive infrastructure across a range of public services. While this trend has been relatively well documented, there has been a dearth of research into the changing nature of state interventions in migration and mobility. Indeed the increasing presence of migration intermediaries to service the many and varied needs of migrant workers, particularly skilled migrants, remains significantly under-researched both theoretically and empirically. In providing an analysis of the location, role and changing nature of migration intermediaries, we highlight the implications of commercially-driven governance structures. In particular we suggest that the shift from government to network governance has important implications for skilled migration including: inequities in access to information regarding the process of migration and labour market integration; and, greater dependence on (largely unregulated) private intermediaries. Accordingly, we present empirical examples of migration intermediaries to illustrate their role and the relationship with and implications of their exchange with migrants

New MACRO results on atmospheric neutrino oscillations

The final results of the MACRO experiment on atmospheric neutrino oscillations are presented and discussed. The data concern different event topologies with average neutrino energies of ~3 and ~50 GeV. Multiple Coulomb Scattering of the high energy muons in absorbers was used to estimate the neutrino energy of each event. The angular distributions, the L/E_nu distribution, the particle ratios and the absolute fluxes all favour nu_mu --> nu_tau oscillations with maximal mixing and Delta m^2 =0.0023 eV^2. A discussion is made on the Monte Carlos used for the atmospheric neutrino flux. Some results on neutrino astrophysics are also briefly discussed.Comment: Invited Paper at the NANP03 Int. Conf., Dubna, 200

The modern pollen-vegetation relationship of a tropical forest-savannah mosaic landscape, Ghana, West Africa

Transitions between forest and savannah vegetation types in fossil pollen records are often poorly understood due to over-production by taxa such as Poaceae and a lack of modern pollen-vegetation studies. Here, modern pollen assemblages from within a forest-savannah transition in West Africa are presented and compared, their characteristic taxa discussed, and implications for the fossil record considered. Fifteen artificial pollen traps were deployed for 1 year, to collect pollen rain from three vegetation plots within the forest-savannah transition in Ghana. High percentages of Poaceae and Melastomataceae/Combretaceae were recorded in all three plots. Erythrophleum suaveolens characterised the forest plot, Manilkara obovata the transition plot and Terminalia the savannah plot. The results indicate that Poaceae pollen influx rates provide the best representation of the forest-savannah gradient, and that a Poaceae abundance of >40% should be considered as indicative of savannah-type vegetation in the fossil record