Warrant Economics, Call-Put Policy Options and the Fallacies of Economic Theory

In this paper we aim to trace the roots of the ongoing economic mayhem and to unmask the chorus of the tragedy which plays on the world stage. The main thesis of our work is that, despite the triumphant rhetoric praising the merits of perfect competition, the global fields of the dysfunctional market system have mushroomed in what we call Warrant Economics for the Free-Market Aristocracy. Warrant Economics unfolds in two symbiotic tenets that constitute the subtle architecture of the neoliberal edifice: (i) the systemic creation and preservation of inequality via Call-Put policy options, and (ii) the systemic exploitation of inequality via novel and toxic forms of securitisation. In effect, the power structure of insiders’ capitalism that we describe, trough the costless appropriation of an intricate cobweb of Call-Put structures, has distorted competition and accelerated economic concentration. We view the income distribution effect, which favours the top 1%, and the business concentration effect, which gravitates competition towards oligopolistic/monopolistic industries, as the two sides of the Warrant Economics coin. We argue that the Warrant Economics state of capitalism has been legitimised by a degenerating research programme blossomed under the fallacy that economics is the “physics of society”. In this faculty of thought, we perceive the Great Recession as a symptom of Warrant Economics, rather than as a tsunami-like event.income distribution, monopoly, securitisation, Call-Put policy options, Warrant Economics, Great Recession, sovereign debt

Warrant Economics, Call-Put Policy Options and the Fallacies of Economic Theory

In this paper we aim to trace the roots of the ongoing economic mayhem and to unmask the chorus of the tragedy which plays on the world stage. The main thesis of our work is that, despite the triumphant rhetoric praising the merits of perfect competition, the global fields of the dysfunctional market system have mushroomed in what we call Warrant Economics for the Free-Market Aristocracy . Warrant Economics unfolds in two symbiotic tenets that constitute the subtle architecture of the neoliberal edifice: (i) the systemic creation and preservation of inequality via Call-Put policy options, and (ii) the systemic exploitation of inequality via novel and toxic forms of securitisation. In effect, the power structure of insiders' capitalism that we describe, through the costless appropriation of an intricate cobweb of Call-Put structures, has distorted competition and accelerated economic concentration. We view the income distribution effect, which favours the top 1%, and the business concentration effect, which gravitates competition towards oligopolistic/monopolistic industries, as the two sides of the Warrant Economics coin. We argue that the Warrant Economics state of capitalism has been legitimised by a degenerating research programme blossomed under the fallacy that economics is the "physics of society". In this faculty of thought, we perceive the Great Recession as a symptom of Warrant Economics, rather than as a tsunami-like event.Warrant Economics, Call-Put policy options, Securitisation, Monopoly, Income distribution, Great Recession, Sovereign debt

Modelling the Yield Curve: A Two Components Approach

Using parametric return autocorrelation tests and non parametric variance ratio statistics show that the UK and US short-term interest rates are unit root processes with significant mean reverting components. Congruent with this empirical evidence, we develop a new continuous time term structure model which assumes that the dynamics of the instantaneous interest rate are given by the joint effect of a (stationary) mean reverting component and a (nonstationary) martingale component. We provide a closed-form solution for the equilibrium yield curve when the temporary component is modelled as an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process and the permanent component is modelled as an Arithmetic Brownian motion process.Term structure, Mean reversion, Random walk, Brownian motion, Variance ratio, Linear regression

Should the rich be taxed more? the fiscal inequality coefficient

Altres ajuts: ECO2016-75623-RThis paper holistically adressthe effective (relative) income tax contribution of a given income (or wealth) group. The widely acclaimed standard in public policy is the absolute benefaction of a given income group in filling up the fiscal coffers. Instead, we focus on the ratio of the average income tax rate of an income group divided by the percentage of national income (or wealth) appropiated by the same income group. In turn, we develop the Fiscal Inequality Coefficient wich compares the effective percentage income tax payments of pairs of income (or wealth) groups. Using data for the US, we concentrate on pairs such as the Bottom 90? versus Top 10%, Bottom 99% versus Top 1% and Bottom 99.9% versus Top 0.1%. We conclude that policy makers with strong social conscience should re-evaluate the progresivity of the income tax system and make the richest echelons of the income and wealth distributions pay a fairer and higher tax

The Greek dra(ch)ma: 5 years of austerity. The three economists’ view and a comment.

In this paper, we summarize the opinion of three renowned economists,namely Paul De Grauwe, Paul Krugman and Joseph Stiglitz, on the Eurozone crisis as well as on the Greek case. All three expressed in one way or another their reservations about the single currency. On the one hand, De Grauwe and Stiglitz highlighted the design failures of the Eurozone, and on the other Krugman argued that the creation of the common currency was a terrible mistake. In support of their claims we provide evidence of the negative consequences of the austerity measures that were implemented by the troika on the Greek economy for a period covering 2010-2014. After five years of austerity, Greece among others experienced significant deflationary dynamics, deep recession, high unemployment rates that are among the highest in Europe, and an increase of the percentage of the people at risk of poverty or social exclusion. More specifically, GDP per capita growth shrank on average by 5.85 percent in the period 2010-2013 while the unemployment rate reached 25.5 percent in 2015. Even more remarkable is the fact that the youth unemployment rate reached 52.4 percent in 2014. Finally, 14 percent of the population cannot meet its medical needs due to the high cost of treatment

The Legacy of a Fractured Eurozone: The Greek Dra(ch)ma

This paper addresses neoliberal origins of the acute geoeconomic and social crisis that was inflicted on Greece since 2010 with the unleashing of the 3 consecutive bailout plans and the implementation of fierce austerity policies. We further scrutinize the composition of the soaring Greek debt and most importantly, the unsettling utilization of the troika loans for the 2010–15 period. For the first time in the literature, we provide evidence that the vast bulk of the loans went overwhelmingly not to benefiting a “profligate” Greek state but to avoiding the write-downs of bad loans made by reckless creditors (mainly, German and French banks) to the Greek government and private banks. We propose the temporary adoption of a parallel currency in the form of government IOUs, together with other drastic measures to reboot the ailing Greek economy inside the Eurozone

Should the Rich be Taxed More? The Fiscal Inequality Coefficient

This paper holistically addresses the effective (relative) income tax contribution of a given income (or, wealth) group. The widely acclaimed standard in public policy is the absolute benefaction of a given income group in filling up the fiscal coffers. Instead, we focus on the ratio of the average income tax rate of an income group divided by the percentage of national income (or wealth) appropriated by the same income group. In turn, we develop the Fiscal Inequality Coefficient which compares the effective percentage income tax payments of pairs of income (or wealth) groups. Using data for the US, we concentrate on pairs such as the Bottom 90% versus Top 10%, Bottom 99% versus Top 1%, and Bottom 99.9% versus Top 0.1%. We conclude that policy makers with a strong social conscience should re-evaluate the progressivity of the income tax system and make the richest echelons of the income and wealth distributions pay a fairer and higher tax

Convexity Adjustment for Constant maturity Swaps in a Multi-Curve Framework

In this paper we propose a double curving setup with distinct forward and discount curves to price constant maturity swaps (CMS). Using separate curves for discounting and forwarding, we develop a new convexity adjustment, by departing from the restrictive assumption of a flat term structure, and expand our setting to incorporate the more realistic and even challenging case of term structure tilts. We calibrate CMS spreads to market data and numerically compare our adjustments against the Black and SABR (stochastic alpha beta rho) CMS adjustments widely used in the market. Our analysis suggests that the proposed convexity adjustment is significantly larger compared to the Black and SABR adjustments and offers a consistent and robust valuation of CMS spreads across different market conditions

Self-affinity in financial asset returns

We test for departures from normal and independent and identically distributed (NIID) log returns, for log returns under the alternative hypothesis that are self-affine and either long-range dependent, or drawn randomly from an L-stable distribution with infinite higher-order moments. The finite sample performance of estimators of the two forms of self-affinity is explored in a simulation study. In contrast to rescaled range analysis and other conventional estimation methods, the variant of fluctuation analysis that considers finite sample moments only is able to identify both forms of self-affinity. When log returns are self-affine and long-range dependent under the alternative hypothesis, however, rescaled range analysis has higher power than fluctuation analysis. The techniques are illustrated by means of an analysis of the daily log returns for the indices of 11 stock markets of developed countries. Several of the smaller stock markets by capitalization exhibit evidence of long-range dependence in log returns