Intra-hour cloud index forecasting with data assimilation

We introduce a computational framework to forecast cloud index (CI)fields for up to one hour on a spatial domain that covers a city. Such intra-hour CI forecasts are important to produce solar power forecasts of utility scale solar power and distributed rooftop solar. Our method combines a 2D advection model with cloud motion vectors (CMVs)derived from a mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP)model and sparse optical flow acting on successive, geostationary satellite images. We use ensemble data assimilation to combine these sources of cloud motion information based on the uncertainty of each data source. Our technique produces forecasts that have similar or lower root mean square error than reference techniques that use only optical flow, NWP CMV fields, or persistence. We describe how the method operates on three representative case studies and present results from 39 cloudy days

Women's secure hospital services: national bed numbers and distribution.

A mapping exercise as part of a pathway study of women in secure psychiatric services in the England and Wales was conducted. It aimed to (i) establish the extent and range of secure service provision for women nationally and (ii) establish the present and future care needs and pathways of care of women mentally disordered offenders (MDO) currently in low, medium and enhanced medium secure care. The study identified 589 medium secure beds, 46 enhanced medium secure beds (WEMSS) and 990 low secure beds for women nationally. Of the 589 medium secure beds, the majority (309, 52%) are in the NHS and under half (280, 48%) are in the independent sector (IS). The distribution of low secure beds is in the opposite direction, the majority (745, 75%) being in the IS and 254 (25%) in the NHS. Medium secure provision for women has grown over the past decade, but comparative data for low secure provision are not available. Most women are now in single sex facilities although a small number of mixed sex units remain. The findings have implications for the future commissioning of secure services for women

Assessing the implementation of BIM – an information systems approach

Much attention has been paid to measuring the perceived benefits of Building Information Modelling (BIM). Yet despite an increase its adoption throughout the construction industry, important links between implementation, support and benefits are yet to be explored. We examine the constitutive elements of the BIM implementation process of two case studies implementing and using BIM: The first is a large urban regeneration project and the second is a healthcare project. A well-recognised model of system success is mobilised from the field of information systems (IS) to reveal that irrespective of project size and type, BIM benefits are confined to technically discrete productivity and efficiency gains when there is limited focus on the organisational aspects of BIM adoption. This paper focuses on the disconnections between organisational and project level BIM implementation using the DeLone and McLean Model as an analytical framework to systematically examine the benefits of BIM to each project in relation to the implementation approach employed. This study highlights the significance of these interdependencies and argues for a more comprehensive approach to BIM benefits capture that recognises this to usefully inform implementation strategy development

Consequences of Biomarker Analysis on the Cost-Effectiveness of Cetuximab in Combination with FOLFIRI as a First-Line Treatment of Metastatic Colorectal Cancer: Personalised Medicine at Work

Background Therapies may be more efficacious when targeting a patient subpopulation with specific attributes, thereby enhancing the cost-effectiveness of treatment. In the CRYSTAL study, patients with metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) were treated with cetuximab plus FOLFIRI or FOLFIRI alone until disease progression, unacceptable toxic effects or withdrawal of consent. Objective To determine if stratified use of cetuximab based on genetic biomarker detection improves cost-effectiveness. Methods We used individual patient data from CRYSTAL to compare the cost-effectiveness, cost per life-year (LY) and cost per quality-adjusted LY (QALY) gained of cetuximab plus FOLFIRI versus FOLFIRI alone in three cohorts of patients with mCRC: all randomised patients (intent-to-treat; ITT), tumours with no detectable mutations in codons 12 and 13 of exon 2 of the KRAS protein (‘KRAS wt’) and no detectable mutations in exons 2, 3 and 4 of KRAS and exons 2, 3 and 4 of NRAS (‘RAS wt’). Survival analysis was conducted using RStudio, and a cost-utility model was modified to allow comparison of the three cohorts. Results The deterministic base-case ICER (cost per QALY gained) was £130,929 in the ITT, £72,053 in the KRAS wt and £44,185 in the RAS wt cohorts for cetuximab plus FOLFIRI compared with FOLFIRI alone. At a £50,000 willingness-to-pay threshold, cetuximab plus FOLFIRI has a 2.8, 20 and 63% probability of being cost-effective for the ITT, KRAS wt and RAS wt cohorts, respectively, versus FOLFIRI alone. Conclusion Screening for mutations in both KRAS and NRAS may provide the most cost-effective approach to patient selection

A measurement of the 4He(g,n) reaction from 23 < Eg < 70 MeV

A comprehensive set of 4He(g,n) absolute cross-section measurements has been performed at MAX-lab in Lund, Sweden. Tagged photons from 23 < Eg < 70 MeV were directed toward a liquid 4He target, and neutrons were identified using pulse-shape discrimination and the Time-of-flight Technique in two liquid-scintillator detector arrays. Seven-point angular distributions have been measured for fourteen photon energies. The results have been subjected to complementary Transition-coefficient and Legendre-coefficient analyses. The results are also compared to experimental data measured at comparable photon energies as well as Recoil-Corrected Continuum Shell Model, Resonating Group Method, and Effective Interaction Hyperspherical-Harmonic Expansion calculations. For photon energies below 29 MeV, the angle-integrated data are significantly larger than the values recommended by Calarco, Berman, and Donnelly in 1983.Comment: 16 pages, 14 figures, some more revisions, submitted to Physical Review

Measurements of 12C(&#8594;γ,pp) photon asymmetries for Eγ= 200–450 MeV

The 12C (&#8594;γ ,pp) reaction has been studied in the photon energy range 200-450 MeV at the Mainz microtron MAMI-C, where linearly polarised photons were energy-tagged using the Glasgow-Mainz Tagged Photon Spectrometer and protons were detected in the Crystal Ball detector. The photon asymmetry Σ has been measured over a wider Eγ range than previous measurements. The strongest asymmetries were found at low missing energies where direct emission of nucleon pairs is expected. Cuts on the difference in azimuthal angles of the two ejected protons increased the magnitude of the observed asymmetries. At low missing energies the Σ data exhibit a strong angular dependence, similar to deuteron photodisintegration

Transcriptional repressor ZEB2 promotes terminal differentiation of CD8⁺ effector and memory T cell populations during infection

ZEB2 is a multi-zinc-finger transcription factor known to play a significant role in early neurogenesis and in epithelial-mesenchymal transition-dependent tumor metastasis. Although the function of ZEB2 in T lymphocytes is unknown, activity of the closely related family member ZEB1 has been implicated in lymphocyte development. Here, we find that ZEB2 expression is up-regulated by activated T cells, specifically in the KLRG1(hi) effector CD8(+) T cell subset. Loss of ZEB2 expression results in a significant loss of antigen-specific CD8(+) T cells after primary and secondary infection with a severe impairment in the generation of the KLRG1(hi) effector memory cell population. We show that ZEB2, which can bind DNA at tandem, consensus E-box sites, regulates gene expression of several E-protein targets and may directly repress Il7r and Il2 in CD8(+) T cells responding to infection. Furthermore, we find that T-bet binds to highly conserved T-box sites in the Zeb2 gene and that T-bet and ZEB2 regulate similar gene expression programs in effector T cells, suggesting that T-bet acts upstream and through regulation of ZEB2. Collectively, we place ZEB2 in a larger transcriptional network that is responsible for the balance between terminal differentiation and formation of memory CD8(+) T cells