What do we know and when do we know it?

Two essential aspects of virtual screening are considered: experimental design and performance metrics. In the design of any retrospective virtual screen, choices have to be made as to the purpose of the exercise. Is the goal to compare methods? Is the interest in a particular type of target or all targets? Are we simulating a ‘real-world’ setting, or teasing out distinguishing features of a method? What are the confidence limits for the results? What should be reported in a publication? In particular, what criteria should be used to decide between different performance metrics? Comparing the field of molecular modeling to other endeavors, such as medical statistics, criminology, or computer hardware evaluation indicates some clear directions. Taken together these suggest the modeling field has a long way to go to provide effective assessment of its approaches, either to itself or to a broader audience, but that there are no technical reasons why progress cannot be made

A risk prediction model for the assessment and triage of women with hypertensive disorders of pregnancy in low-resourced settings: the miniPIERS (Pre-eclampsia Integrated Estimate of RiSk) multi-country prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Pre-eclampsia/eclampsia are leading causes of maternal mortality and morbidity, particularly in low- and middle- income countries (LMICs). We developed the miniPIERS risk prediction model to provide a simple, evidence-based tool to identify pregnant women in LMICs at increased risk of death or major hypertensive-related complications. METHODS AND FINDINGS: From 1 July 2008 to 31 March 2012, in five LMICs, data were collected prospectively on 2,081 women with any hypertensive disorder of pregnancy admitted to a participating centre. Candidate predictors collected within 24 hours of admission were entered into a step-wise backward elimination logistic regression model to predict a composite adverse maternal outcome within 48 hours of admission. Model internal validation was accomplished by bootstrapping and external validation was completed using data from 1,300 women in the Pre-eclampsia Integrated Estimate of RiSk (fullPIERS) dataset. Predictive performance was assessed for calibration, discrimination, and stratification capacity. The final miniPIERS model included: parity (nulliparous versus multiparous); gestational age on admission; headache/visual disturbances; chest pain/dyspnoea; vaginal bleeding with abdominal pain; systolic blood pressure; and dipstick proteinuria. The miniPIERS model was well-calibrated and had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC ROC) of 0.768 (95% CI 0.735-0.801) with an average optimism of 0.037. External validation AUC ROC was 0.713 (95% CI 0.658-0.768). A predicted probability ≥25% to define a positive test classified women with 85.5% accuracy. Limitations of this study include the composite outcome and the broad inclusion criteria of any hypertensive disorder of pregnancy. This broad approach was used to optimize model generalizability. CONCLUSIONS: The miniPIERS model shows reasonable ability to identify women at increased risk of adverse maternal outcomes associated with the hypertensive disorders of pregnancy. It could be used in LMICs to identify women who would benefit most from interventions such as magnesium sulphate, antihypertensives, or transportation to a higher level of care

The European multicenter trial on the safety and efficacy of guided oblique lumbar interbody fusion (GO-LIF)

Background: Because of the implant-related problems with pedicle screw-based spinal instrumentations, other types of fixation have been tried in spinal arthrodesis. One such technique is the direct trans-pedicular, trans-discal screw fixation, pioneered by Grob for spondylolisthesis. The newly developed GO-LIF procedure expands the scope of the Grob technique in several important ways and adds security by means of robotic-assisted navigation. This is the first clinical trial on the GO-LIF procedure and it will assess safety and efficacy. Methods/Design: Multicentric prospective study with n = 40 patients to undergo single level instrumented spinal arthrodesis of the lumbar or the lumbosacral spine, based on a diagnosis of: painful disc degeneration, painful erosive osteochondrosis, segmental instability, recurrent disc herniation, spinal canal stenosis or foraminal stenosis. The primary target criteria with regards to safety are: The number, severity and cause of intra-and perioperative complications. The number of significant penetrations of the cortical layer of the vertebral body by the implant as recognized on postoperative CT. The primary target parameters with regards to feasibility are: Performance of the procedure according to the preoperative plan. The planned follow-up is 12 months and the following scores will be evaluated as secondary target parameters with regards to clinical improvement: VAS back pain, VAS leg pain, Oswestry Disability Index, short form - 12 health questionnaire and the Swiss spinal stenosis questionnaire for patients with spinal claudication. The secondary parameters with regards to construct stability are visible fusion or lack thereof and signs of implant loosening, implant migration or pseudarthrosis on plain and functional radiographs. Discussion: This trial will for the first time assess the safety and efficacy of guided oblique lumbar interbody fusion. There is no control group, but the results, the outcome and the rate of any complications will be analyzed on the background of the literature on instrumented spinal fusion. Despite its limitations, we expect that this study will serve as the key step in deciding whether a direct comparative trial with another fusion technique is warranted

The Warden Attitude: An investigation of the value of interaction with everyday wildlife

Using a discrete choice experiment, we elicit valuations of engagement with ‘everyday wildlife’ through feeding garden birds. We find that bird-feeding is primarily but not exclusively motivated by the direct consumption value of interaction with wildlife. The implicit valuations given to different species suggest that people prefer birds that have aesthetic appeal and that evoke human feelings of protectiveness. These findings suggest that people derive wellbeing by adopting a warden-like role towards ‘their’ wildlife. We test for external validity by conducting a hedonic analysis of sales of bird food. We discuss some policy implications of the existence of warden attitudes

Social validity of randomised controlled trials in health services research and intellectual disabilities: a qualitative exploration of stakeholder views

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) are the gold standard of evidence-based practice in medicine but they have had limited influence in the field of intellectual disabilities. Previous literature suggests that participants and professionals have limited tolerance for this type of research methodology. However, it is not known how well service users, carers and other health professionals understand and accept the need for RCTs, and why it is important for individuals with intellectual disabilities to be included in this kind of research.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We examined individual perceptions of RCTs in 51 participants (18 carers, 6 service users and 27 professionals) using semi-structured interviews. A framework approach was adopted in the analysis of data.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We found that participants had concerns about capacity and resource allocation but held positive views towards this type of research methodology. Understanding of the principles behind RCTs was poor amongst service users and a minority of carers, but mediated by previous exposure to research for professionals.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The social validity of RCTs in intellectual disabilities may be compromised by lack of understanding of the design and the on-going concerns about obtaining informed consent especially in incapacitated adults. However, the overall finding that the need for this form of research was seen in a positive light suggests that there is a turning point in the perceptions of stakeholders working in intellectual disabilities services. We recommend that researchers include on-going education on RCT design during trials, tailoring it to all stakeholders with emphasis on strong service user and care involvement. This could be a pivotal element in improving acceptability of, and recruitment to RCTs.</p

Using principal component analysis to develop a single-parameter screening tool for metabolic syndrome

Abstract Background Metabolic syndrome (MS) is an important current public health problem faced worldwide. To prevent an "epidemic" of this syndrome, it is important to develop an easy single-parameter screening technique (such as waist circumference (WC) determination recommended by the International Diabetes Federation). Previous studies proved that age is a chief factor corresponding to central obesity. We intended to present a new index based on the linear combination of body mass index, and age, which could enhance the area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) for assessing the risk of MS. Methods The labour law of the Association of Labor Standard Law, Taiwan, states that employers and employees are respectively obligated to offer and receive routine health examination periodically. Secondary data analysis and subject's biomarkers among five high-tech factories were used in this study between 2007 and 2008 in northern Taiwan. The subjects included 4712 males and 4196 females. The first principal component score (FPCS) and equal-weighted average (EWA) were determined by statistical analysis. Results Most of the metabolic and clinical characteristics were significantly higher in males than in females, except high-density lipoprotein cholesterol level. The older group (>45 years) had significantly lower values for height and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol level than the younger group. The AUCs of FPCS and EWA were significantly larger than those of WC and waist-to-height ratio. The low specificities of EWA and FPCS were compensated for by their substantially high sensitivities. FPCS ≥ 0.914 (15.4%) and EWA ≥ 8.8 (6.3%) were found to be the most prevalent cut off points in males and females, respectively. Conclusions The Bureau of Health Promotion, Department of Health, Taiwan, had recommended the use of WC ≥ 90 cm for males and ≥ 80 cm for females as singular criteria for the determination of central obesity instead of multiple parameters. The present investigation suggests that FPCS or EWA is a good predictor of MS among the Taiwanese. However, the use of FPCS is not computationally feasible in practice. Therefore, we suggest that EWA be used in clinical practice as a simple parameter for the identification of those at risk of MS.</p

The Role of Imported Cases and Favorable Meteorological Conditions in the Onset of Dengue Epidemics

Dengue/dengue hemorrhagic fever is the world's most widely spread mosquito-borne arboviral disease and threatens more than two-thirds of the world's population. Cases are mainly distributed in tropical and subtropical areas in accordance with vector habitats for Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus. However, the role of imported cases and favorable meteorological conditions has not yet been quantitatively assessed. This study verified the correlation between the occurrence of indigenous dengue and imported cases in the context of weather variables (temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, etc.) for different time lags in southern Taiwan. Our findings imply that imported cases have a role in igniting indigenous outbreaks, in non-endemics areas, when favorable weather conditions are present. This relationship becomes insignificant in the late phase of local dengue epidemics. Therefore, early detection and case management of imported cases through timely surveillance and rapid laboratory-diagnosis may avert large scale epidemics of dengue/dengue hemorrhagic fever. An early-warning surveillance system integrating meteorological data will be an invaluable tool for successful prevention and control of dengue, particularly in non-endemic countries

oA novel nonparametric approach for estimating cut-offs in continuous risk indicators with application to diabetes epidemiology

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Epidemiological and clinical studies, often including anthropometric measures, have established obesity as a major risk factor for the development of type 2 diabetes. Appropriate cut-off values for anthropometric parameters are necessary for prediction or decision purposes. The cut-off corresponding to the Youden-Index is often applied in epidemiology and biomedical literature for dichotomizing a continuous risk indicator.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Using data from a representative large multistage longitudinal epidemiological study in a primary care setting in Germany, this paper explores a novel approach for estimating optimal cut-offs of anthropomorphic parameters for predicting type 2 diabetes based on a discontinuity of a regression function in a nonparametric regression framework.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The resulting cut-off corresponded to values obtained by the Youden Index (maximum of the sum of sensitivity and specificity, minus one), often considered the optimal cut-off in epidemiological and biomedical research. The nonparametric regression based estimator was compared to results obtained by the established methods of the Receiver Operating Characteristic plot in various simulation scenarios and based on bias and root mean square error, yielded excellent finite sample properties.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>It is thus recommended that this nonparametric regression approach be considered as valuable alternative when a continuous indicator has to be dichotomized at the Youden Index for prediction or decision purposes.</p