Enfoques recientes para modelizar el riesgo de tormentas y fuego en los bosques europeos y su integración

The aim of this paper is to discuss the different recently developed empirical and mechanistic modelling approaches for assessing the risk of wind and fire damage to forests. Additionally the work will explore possible ways to integrate these approaches, including feedback mechanisms, into growth and yield models and decision support tools used in forestry. The integration of mechanistic and empirical storm risk models, as well as an empirical/mechanistic fire risk model into growth simulators is demonstrated and future challenges and options for risk modelling and for creating complex decision support tools, including growth simulators, meteorological components and risk modules, are discussed.El objetivo de este trabajo es analizar los diferentes modelos empíricos y mecanicistas que se han desarrollado recientemente para evaluar el riesgo de daños por el viento y el fuego en los bosques. Además, el trabajo explora las posibles formas de integrar estos enfoques, incluyendo mecanismos de retroalimentación, en los modelos de crecimiento y produccion y en las herramientas de apoyo a la toma de decisiones utilizadas en el sector forestal. Se muestra la integración de modelos mecanicistas y empíricos de riesgo a tormentas, así como un modelo empírico/mecanicista de riesgo de incendio en los simuladores de crecimiento y se discuten los retos futuros y las opciones para la modelización de riesgos y para la creación de complejas herramientas de apoyo a la toma de decisiones, incluyendo simuladores de crecimiento, componentes meteorológicos y módulos de riesgo

Local Optical Spectroscopy in Quantum Confined Systems: A Theoretical Description

A theoretical description of local absorption is proposed in order to investigate spectral variations on a length scale comparable with the extension of the relevant quantum states. A general formulation is derived within the density-matrix formalism including Coulomb correlation, and applied to the prototypical case of coupled quantum wires. The results show that excitonic effects may have a crucial impact on the local absorption with implications for the spatial resolution and the interpretation of near-field optical spectra.Comment: To appear in Phys. Rev. Lett. - 11 pages, 3 PostScript figures (1 figure in colors) embedded. Uses RevTex, and psfig style

Spatio-temporal dynamics of quantum-well excitons

We investigate the lateral transport of excitons in ZnSe quantum wells by using time-resolved micro-photoluminescence enhanced by the introduction of a solid immersion lens. The spatial and temporal resolutions are 200 nm and 5 ps, respectively. Strong deviation from classical diffusion is observed up to 400 ps. This feature is attributed to the hot-exciton effects, consistent with previous experiments under cw excitation. The coupled transport-relaxation process of hot excitons is modelled by Monte Carlo simulation. We prove that two basic assumptions typically accepted in photoluminescence investigations on excitonic transport, namely (i) the classical diffusion model as well as (ii) the equivalence between the temporal and spatial evolution of the exciton population and of the measured photoluminescence, are not valid for low-temperature experiments.Comment: 8 pages, 6 figure

Ab initio calculations for bromine adlayers on the Ag(100) and Au(100) surfaces: the c(2x2) structure

Ab initio total-energy density-functional methods with supercell models have been employed to calculate the c(2x2) structure of the Br-adsorbed Ag(100) and Au(100) surfaces. The atomic geometries of the surfaces and the preferred bonding sites of the bromine have been determined. The bonding character of bromine with the substrates has also been studied by analyzing the electronic density of states and the charge transfer. The calculations show that while the four-fold hollow-site configuration is more stable than the two-fold bridge-site topology on the Ag(100) surface, bromine prefers the bridge site on the Au(100) surface. The one-fold on-top configuration is the least stable configuration on both surfaces. It is also observed that the second layer of the Ag substrate undergoes a small buckling as a consequence of the adsorption of Br. Our results provide a theoretical explanation for the experimental observations that the adsorption of bromine on the Ag(100) and Au(100) surfaces results in different bonding configurations.Comment: 10 pages, 4 figure, 5 tables, Phys. Rev. B, in pres

Prealignment B(E2)-anomaly in 124Xe

Lifetimes of 17 levels of 124Xe were measured using the Recoil Distance Doppler Shift method. An anomalous E2-reduction was observed, starting at Iπ = 8+ and Iπ = 5+ in the groundstate and in the quasi-gamma band respectively. This anomaly is discussed in terms of the Interacting Boson Model

Local optical spectroscopy of semiconductor nanostructures in the linear regime

We present a theoretical approach to calculate the local absorption spectrum of excitons confined in a semiconductor nanostructure. Using the density-matrix formalism, we derive a microscopic expression for the nonlocal susceptibility, both in the linear and nonlinear regimes, which includes a three-dimensional description of electronic quantum states and their Coulomb interaction. The knowledge of the nonlocal susceptibility allows us to calculate a properly defined local absorbed power, which depends on the electromagnetic field distribution. We report on explicit calculations of the local linear response of excitons confined in single and coupled T-shaped quantum wires with realistic geometry and composition. We show that significant interference effects in the interacting electron-hole wave function induce new features in the space-resolved optical spectra, particularly in coupled nanostructures. When the spatial extension of the electromagnetic field is comparable to the exciton Bohr radius, Coulomb effects on the local spectra must be taken into account for a correct assignment of the observed features

Gewalt in der Schule

Vortrag auf der Tagung Bindung, Trauma und soziale Gewalt , 3.-5.12.2004 in Frankfurt am Main

Is there an association between seeing incidents of alcohol or drug use in films and young Scottish adults' own alcohol or drug use? A cross sectional study

<p>Background: As the promotion of alcohol and tobacco to young people through direct advertising has become increasingly restricted, there has been greater interest in whether images of certain behaviours in films are associated with uptake of those behaviours in young people. Associations have been reported between exposure to smoking images in films and smoking initiation, and between exposure to film alcohol images and initiation of alcohol consumption, in younger adolescents in the USA and Germany. To date no studies have reported on film images of recreational drug use and young people's own drug use.</p> <p>Methods: Cross sectional multivariable logistic regression analysis of data collected at age 19 (2002-4) from a cohort of young people (502 boys, 500 girls) previously surveyed at ages 11 (in 1994-5), 13 and 15 in schools in the West of Scotland. Outcome measures at age 19 were: exceeding the 'sensible drinking' guidelines ('heavy drinkers') and binge drinking (based on alcohol consumption reported in last week), and ever use of cannabis and of 'hard' drugs. The principle predictor variables were an estimate of exposure to images of alcohol, and of drug use, in films, controlling for factors related to the uptake of substance use in young people.</p> <p>Results: A third of these young adults (33%) were classed as 'heavy drinkers' and half (47%) as 'binge drinkers' on the basis of their previous week's consumption. Over half (56%) reported ever use of cannabis and 13% ever use of one or more of the 'hard' drugs listed. There were linear trends in the percentage of heavy drinkers (p = .018) and binge drinkers (p = 0.012) by film alcohol exposure quartiles, and for ever use of cannabis by film drug exposure (p = .000), and for ever use of 'hard' drugs (p = .033). The odds ratios for heavy drinking (1.56, 95% CI 1.06-2.29 comparing highest with lowest quartile of film alcohol exposure) and binge drinking (1.59, 95% CI 1.10-2.30) were attenuated by adjustment for gender, social class, family background (parental structure, parental care and parental control), attitudes to risk-taking and rule-breaking, and qualifications (OR heavy drinking 1.42, 95% CI 0.95-2.13 and binge drinking 1.49, 95% CI 1.01-2.19), and further so when adjusting for friends' drinking status (when the odds ratios were no longer significant). A similar pattern was seen for ever use of cannabis and 'hard' drugs (unadjusted OR 1.80, 95% CI 1.24-2.62 and 1.57, 95% CI 0.91-2.69 respectively, 'fully' adjusted OR 1.41 (0.90-2.22 and 1.28 (0.66-2.47) respectively).</p> <p>Conclusions: Despite some limitations, which are discussed, these cross-sectional results add to a body of work which suggests that it is important to design good longitudinal studies which can determine whether exposure to images of potentially health-damaging behaviours lead to uptake of these behaviours during adolescence and early adulthood, and to examine factors that might mediate this relationship.</p&gt

Contributions of a global network of tree diversity experiments to sustainable forest plantations

status: publishe

Preventing Violence in Seven Countries: Global Convergence in Policies

Do governments take the measures that are supported by the best scientific evidence available? We present a brief review of the situation in: Australia, Canada, Germany, the Netherlands, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Our findings show surprisingly similar developments across countries. While all seven countries are moving towards evidence-based decision making regarding policies and programs to prevent violence, there remain a number of difficulties before this end can be achieved. For example, there continue to be few randomized controlled trials or rigorous quasi-experimental studies on aggression and violence. Results from experimental research are essential to both policy makers and researchers to determine the effectiveness of programs as well as increase our knowledge of the problem. Additionally, all noted that media attention for violence is high in their country, often leading to management by crisis with the result that policies are not based on evidence, but instead seek to appease public outrage. And perhaps because of attendant organizational problems (i.e., in many countries violence prevention was not under the guise of one particular agency or ministry), most have not developed a coordinated policy focusing on the prevention of violence and physical aggression. It is hypothesized that leaders in democratic countries, who must run for election every 4 to 6 years, may feel a need to focus on short-term planning rather than long-term preventive policies since the costs, but not the benefits for the latter would be incurred while they still served in office. We also noted a general absence of expertise beyond those within scientific circles. The need for these ideas to be more widely accepted will be an essential ingredient to real and sustaining change. This means that there must be better communication and increased understanding between researchers and policy makers. Toward those ends, the recent establishment of the Campbell Collaboration, formed to provide international systematic reviews of program effectiveness, will make these results more available and accessible to politicians, administrators and those charged with making key policy decision