Probability: modeling and applications to random processes

This is a review of the book "Probability: Modeling and Applications to Random Processes" by Gregory K. Miller

Prediction of the ballistic limit of an aluminium sandwich panel

This paper presents research on modelling the impact of a 150g projectile on a 35mm thick aluminium sandwich panel. The objective of the work is a predictive modelling capability for the ballistic limit of the panel. A predictive modelling capability supports the design of capture and deorbit missions for large items of space debris such as satellites and rocket upper stages. A detailed explicit finite element model was built using the LSDYNA software and results were compared with experimental data for the projectile exit velocity to establish key parameters. The primary parameters influencing the model behaviour were the strength and failure of the aluminium face sheets and the friction between projectile and panel. The model results showed good agreement with experimental results for ogive nose projectiles, but overestimated the exit velocity for flat nose projectiles.This work was funded by the European Space Agency under a contract with Airbus Defence and Space

Global trends of habitat destruction and consequences for parrot conservation

Human advance on natural habitats is a major cause of biodiversity loss. This transformation process represents a profound change in wooded environments, disrupting original communities of flora and fauna. Many species are highly dependent on forests, especially parrots (Psittaciformes) with almost a third of their species threatened by extinction. Most parrot species occur in tropical and subtropical forests, and given the forest dependence of most species, this is the main reason why habitat loss has been highlighted as the main threat for the group. Such habitat loss acts in synergy with other important threats (e.g., logging and poaching), which become especially problematic in certain developing countries along tropical latitudes. In this study, we used available information on parrot distributions, species traits, IUCN assessment, habitat loss and timber extraction for different periods, and distribution of protected areas, to determine conservation hotspots for the group, and analyze potential changes in the conservation status of these species. We detected four conservation hotspots for parrots: two in the Neotropics and two in Oceania, all of them facing different degrees of threat in regard of current habitat loss and agricultural trends. Our results suggest that the future of the group is subject to policymaking in specific regions, especially in the northeastern Andes and the Atlantic Forest. In addition, we predicted that agricultural expansion will have a further negative effect on the conservation status of parrots, pushing many parrot species to the edge of extinction in the near future. Our results have conservation implications by recommending protected areas in specific parrot conservation hotspots. Our recommendations to mitigate conservation risks to this group of umbrella species would also benefit many other coexisting species as well.Fil: Vergara Tabares, David Lautaro. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Córdoba. Instituto de Diversidad y Ecología Animal. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas Físicas y Naturales. Instituto de Diversidad y Ecología Animal; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas Físicas y Naturales. Centro de Zoología Aplicada; ArgentinaFil: Cordier, Javier Maximiliano. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Córdoba. Instituto de Diversidad y Ecología Animal. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas Físicas y Naturales. Instituto de Diversidad y Ecología Animal; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas Físicas y Naturales. Centro de Zoología Aplicada; ArgentinaFil: Landi, Marcos Alejandro. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Córdoba. Instituto de Diversidad y Ecología Animal. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas Físicas y Naturales. Instituto de Diversidad y Ecología Animal; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas Físicas y Naturales. Centro de Zoología Aplicada; ArgentinaFil: Olah, George. Wildlife Messengers; Estados UnidosFil: Nori, Javier. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Córdoba. Instituto de Diversidad y Ecología Animal. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas Físicas y Naturales. Instituto de Diversidad y Ecología Animal; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas Físicas y Naturales. Centro de Zoología Aplicada; Argentin

Challenges in assessing the sunscreen-melanoma association

Source at https://doi.org/10.1002/ijc.31997.Whether sunscreen use affects melanoma risk has been widely studied with contradictory results. To answer this question we performed a systematic review of all published studies, accounting for sources of heterogeneity and bias. We searched for original articles investigating the sunscreen‐melanoma association in humans to February 28, 2018. We then used random‐effects meta‐analysis to combine estimates of the association, stratified by study design. Stratified meta‐analysis and meta‐regression were used to identify sources of heterogeneity. We included 21,069 melanoma cases from 28 studies published 1979–2018: 23 case–control (11 hospital‐based, 12 population‐based), 1 ecological, 3 cohort and 1 randomised controlled trial (RCT). There was marked heterogeneity across study designs and among case–control studies but adjustment for confounding by sun exposure, sunburns and phenotype systematically moved estimates toward decreased melanoma risk among sunscreen users. Ever‐ vs. never‐use of sunscreen was inversely associated with melanoma in hospital‐based case–control studies (adjusted odds ratio (OR) = 0.57, 95%confidence interval (CI) 0.37–0.87, Pheterogeneity Pheterogeneity Pheterogeneity = 0.236). The association differed by latitude (Pinteraction = 0.042), region (Pinteraction = 0.008), adjustment for naevi/freckling (Pinteraction = 0.035), and proportion of never‐sunscreen‐users (Pinteraction = 0·012). Evidence from observational studies on sunscreen use and melanoma risk was weak and heterogeneous, consistent with the challenges of controlling for innate confounding by indication. The only RCT showed a protective effect of sunscreen

Resistance to wheat rusts identified in wheat/Amblyopyrum muticum chromosome introgressions

© 2020 The Authors. Crop Science © 2020 Crop Science Society of America Wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) rusts are a worldwide production problem. Plant breeders have used genetic resistance to combat these fungi. However, single-gene resistance is rapidly overcome as a result of frequent occurrence of new virulent fungal strains. Thus, a supply of new resistance sources is continually needed, and new resistance sources are limited within hexaploid wheat genetic stocks. Wild relatives are able to be a resource for new resistance genes but are hindered because of chromosome incapability with domesticated wheats. Twenty-eight double-haploid hexaploid wheat/Amblyopyrum muticum (Boiss.) Eig introgression lines, with introgressions covering the majority of the T genome, were evaluated for resistance to Puccinia triticina Erikss., P. graminis Pers.:Pers. f.sp. tritici Erikss. & E. Henning, and P. striiformis Westend. f.sp. tritici Erikss. At the seedling level, four lines were resistant to races of P. triticina, six lines were resistant to P. graminis, and 15 lines were resistant to P. striiformis. At the adult stage, 16 lines were resistant to P. triticina. Line 355 had resistance to all three rusts and line 161 had resistance to all tested races of P. triticina. Some of these lines will require further work to reduce the size of the introgressed segment; however, lines 92 and 355 have very small fragments and can be used directly as new resistance donors

Evolution of breeding plumages in birds: A multiple-step pathway to seasonal dichromatism in New World warblers (Aves: Parulidae)

Ecology and Evolution published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd Many species of birds show distinctive seasonal breeding and nonbreeding plumages. A number of hypotheses have been proposed for the evolution of this seasonal dichromatism, specifically related to the idea that birds may experience variable levels of sexual selection relative to natural selection throughout the year. However, these hypotheses have not addressed the selective forces that have shaped molt, the underlying mechanism of plumage change. Here, we examined relationships between life-history variation, the evolution of a seasonal molt, and seasonal plumage dichromatism in the New World warblers (Aves: Parulidae), a family with a remarkable diversity of plumage, molt, and life-history strategies. We used phylogenetic comparative methods and path analysis to understand how and why distinctive breeding and nonbreeding plumages evolve in this family. We found that color change alone poorly explains the evolution of patterns of biannual molt evolution in warblers. Instead, molt evolution is better explained by a combination of other life-history factors, especially migration distance and foraging stratum. We found that the evolution of biannual molt and seasonal dichromatism is decoupled, with a biannual molt appearing earlier on the tree, more dispersed across taxa and body regions, and correlating with separate life-history factors than seasonal dichromatism. This result helps explain the apparent paradox of birds that molt biannually but show breeding plumages that are identical to the nonbreeding plumage. We find support for a two-step process for the evolution of distinctive breeding and nonbreeding plumages: That prealternate molt evolves primarily under selection for feather renewal, with seasonal color change sometimes following later. These results reveal how life-history strategies and a birds\u27 environment act upon multiple and separate feather functions to drive the evolution of feather replacement patterns and bird coloration

Optimization of PCR conditions to amplify microsatellite loci in the bunchgrass lizard (Sceloporus slevini) genomic DNA

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Microsatellites, also called Simple Sequence Repeats (SSRs), repetitions of nucleotide motifs of 1-5 bases, are currently the markers of choice due to their abundant distribution in the genomes, and suitability for high-throughput analysis. A total of five different primer pairs were optimized for polymerase chain reaction (PCR) to amplify microsatellite loci in total genomic DNA of bunchgrass lizards (<it>Sceloporus slevini</it>) collected from three sites in southeastern Arizona; the Sonoita Plain, Chiricahua Mountains and Huachuca Mountains.</p> <p>Findings</p> <p>The primers used for current investigation were originally designed for the Eastern Fence Lizard (<it>Sceloporus undulatus</it>). Five primer pairs were selected based on annealing temperatures for optimizing the PCR conditions to amplify with bunchgrass lizards. Different concentrations of DNA and annealing temperature were optimized. While keeping other reagents constant, a DNA concentration, 37.5 ng in the final reaction volume and PCR conditions of an initial denaturation of 94°C for five minutes, an annealing temperature of 55°C and final extension of 72°C for four minutes gave the best amplification for all the primer pairs.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Modifying the standard protocol for annealing temperatures and final extension time increases the success of cross amplification of specific microsatellite loci in the bunchgrass lizard. A loading volume of 5 ul DNA at a concentration of 10 ng/ul and a 2% agarose for gel electrophoresis were observed the best for cross amplification of selected five primer pairs on bunch grass lizard.</p> <p>Trial Registration</p> <p>The research was conducted with Arizona Game and Fish Department scientific collecting permits SP565256, SP657407 & SP749119 to Dr. Christian A d'Orgeix.</p

The process of updating engineering management science in an Australian regional university excellence in developing e-learning

The aim of this paper is to share the processes in revising the courseware of the course of Engineering Management Science coded as ENG4004, in the Bachelor of Engineering (Mechanical, Mechatronics, Electrical and Electronic, Computer Systems, Instrumentation and Control), Bachelor of Engineering Technology (Mechanical, Building and Construction Management) programs offered by the University of Southern Queensland (USQ), a regional Australian University with excellence in developing e-learning (Good University Guides 2001; Morgan 1997). The paper describes how the authors review the courseware of the course. The needs for the review are also explained. The assessments of the course were also studied and revised. The authors also estimated the costs involved in reviewing the course. At the same time, the paper also predicts the benefits that will be offered to students and the community including employers who are going to employ USQ graduates. It is finally concluded that the review is worthwhile and the actual costs to the university are minimal

Characterization of deposits formed on diesel injectors in field test and from thermal oxidative degradation of n-hexadecane in a laboratory reactor

Solid deposits from commercially available high-pressure diesel injectors (HPDI) were analyzed to study the solid deposition from diesel fuel during engine operation. The structural and chemical properties of injector deposits were compared to those formed from the thermal oxidative stressing of a diesel fuel range model compound, n-hexadecane at 160°C and 450 psi for 2.5 h in a flow reactor. Both deposits consist of polyaromatic compounds (PAH) with oxygen moieties. The similarities in structure and composition of the injector deposits and n-hexadecane deposits suggest that laboratory experiments can simulate thermal oxidative degradation of diesel in commercial injectors. The formation of PAH from n-hexadecane showed that aromatization of straight chain alkanes and polycondensation of aromatic rings was possible at temperatures as low as 160°C in the presence of oxygen. A mechanism for an oxygen-assisted aromatization of cylcoalkanes is proposed