Ultrasound-detectable grey scale synovitis predicts future fulfilment of the 2010 ACR/EULAR RA classification criteria in patients with new-onset undifferentiated arthritis

Objective: To determine the clinical outcomes for patients with new-onset undifferentiated arthritis (UA), not fulfilling the 2010 American College of Rheumatology (ACR)/European League Against Rheumatism (EULAR) rheumatoid arthritis (RA) classification criteria, and the clinical and imaging predictors of disease progression in these patients. Methods: A prospective observational study was conducted in treatment-naïve UA patients. Baseline ultrasound involved semiquantitative assessment of grey scale (GS) synovitis and power Doppler activity (PD) at 26 joints. Outcomes were fulfilment of 2010 RA criteria (joint involvement determined clinically) and initiation of methotrexate over 12 months. Cox proportional hazards analysis was used to investigate predictors of outcome. Results: Of 60 patients, 13(22%) progressed to RA and 32(53%) ever received methotrexate. Analyses of predictors of outcome were conducted in the subgroup (n=41) of patients with complete baseline data. The presence of GS was associated with progression to RA and methotrexate use: HRs (95% CI) were 1.25(1.07 to 1.45) and 1.16(1.02 to 1.32), respectively, for the number of joints with GS≥ grade 2 after adjustment for swollen joints. PD was not predictive in the low levels at which it was observed. Progression to RA was also associated with fulfilment of the 2010 criteria using ultrasound synovitis for enumerating joint involvement, higher baseline disability and radiographic erosion. Conclusions: This is the first report of ultrasound findings in early UA (defined by presence of clinical synovitis and non-fulfilment of 2010 RA criteria). A significant proportion of patients with UA progressed to RA and/or required methotrexate. GS synovitis was predictive of disease progression

Post-treatment follow-up study of abdominal cystic echinococcosis in Tibetan communities of northwest Sichuan Province, China

Background: Human cystic echinococcosis (CE), caused by the larval stage of Echinococcus granulosus, with the liver as the most frequently affected organ, is known to be highly endemic in Tibetan communities of northwest Sichuan Province. Antiparasitic treatment with albendazole remains the primary choice for the great majority of patients in this resource-poor remote area, though surgery is the most common approach for CE therapy that has the potential to remove cysts and lead to complete cure. The current prospective study aimed to assess the effectiveness of community based use of cyclic albendazole treatment in Tibetan CE cases, and concurrently monitor the changes of serum specific antibody levels during treatment. Methodology/Principal Findings: Ultrasonography was applied for diagnosis and follow-up of CE cases after cyclic albendazole treatment in Tibetan communities of Sichuan Province during 2006 to 2008, and serum specific IgG antibody levels against Echinococcus granulosus recombinant antigen B in ELISA was concurrently monitored in these cases. A total of 196 CE cases were identified by ultrasound, of which 37 (18.9%) showed evidence of spontaneous healing/involution of hepatic cyst(s) with CE4 or CE5 presentations. Of 49 enrolled CE cases for treatment follow-up, 32.7% (16) were considered to be cured based on B-ultrasound after 6 months to 30 months regular albendazole treatment, 49.0% (24) were improved, 14.3% (7) remained unchanged, and 4.1% (2) became aggravated. In general, patients with CE2 type cysts (daughter cysts present) needed a longer treatment course for cure (26.4 months), compared to cases with CE1 (univesicular cysts) (20.4 months) or CE3 type (detached cyst membrane or partial degeneration of daughter cysts) (9 months). In addition, the curative duration was longer in patients with large (.10 cm) cysts (22.3 months), compared to cases with medium (5– 10 cm) cysts (17.3 months) or patients with small (,5 cm) cysts (6 months). At diagnosis, seven (53.8%) of 13 cases with CE1 type cysts without any previous intervention showed negative specific IgG antibody response to E. granulosus recombinant antigen B (rAgB). However, following 3 months to 18 months albendazole therapy, six of these 7 initially seronegative CE1 cases sero-converted to be specific IgG antibody positive, and concurrently ultrasound scan showed that cysts changed to CE3a from CE1 type in all the six CE cases. Two major profiles of serum specific IgG antibody dynamics during albendazole treatment were apparent in CE cases: (i) presenting as initial elevation followed by subsequent decline, or (ii) a persistent decline. Despite a decline, however, specific antibody levels remained positive in most improved or cured CE cases. Conclusions: This was the first attempt to follow up community-screened cystic echinococcosis patients after albendazole therapy using ultrasonography and serology in an endemic Tibetan region. Cyclic albendazole treatment proved to be effective in the great majority of CE cases in this resource-poor area, but periodic abdominal ultrasound examination was necessary to guide appropriate treatment. Oral albendazole for over 18 months was more likely to result in CE cure. Poor drug compliance resulted in less good outcomes. Serology with recombinant antigen B could provide additional limited information about the effectiveness of albendazole in CE cases. Post-treatment positive specific IgG antibody seroconversion, in initially seronegative, CE1 patients was considered a good indication for positive therapeutic efficacy of albendazole

Pragmatic randomised controlled trial of very early etanercept and MTX versus MTX with delayed etanercept in RA: the VEDERA trial

Objectives: We sought to confirm in very early rheumatoid arthritis (ERA) a much greater superiority (30%) of first-line etanercept+methotrexate (ETN+MTX) over treat-to-target MTX (MTX-TT) than previously reported in ERA (14%); and explore whether ETN following initial MTX secures a comparable response to first-line ETN+MTX. Methods: Pragmatic, open-label, randomised controlled trial of treatment-naïve ERA (≤12 months symptom), Disease Activity Score 28 joint (DAS28)-erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR) ≥3.2, rheumatoid factor (RF)+/−anticitrullinated peptide antibody (ACPA) positive or ultrasound power Doppler (PD) if RF and ACPA negative. Subjects were randomised 1:1 to ETN+MTX; or MTX-TT, escalated to ETN if week 24 DAS28-ESR ≥2.6 and intramuscular corticosteroid at protocolised time points. Primary endpoint of week 48 DAS28ESR remission with clinical and imaging secondary endpoints. Results: We randomised 120 patients, 60 to each arm (71% female, 73% RF/84% ACPA positive, median (IQR) symptom duration 20.3 (13.1, 30.8) weeks; mean (SD) DAS28 5.1 (1.1)). Remission rates with ETN+MTX and MTX-TT, respectively, were 38% vs 33% at week 24; 52% vs 38% at week 48 (ORs 1.6, 95% CI 0.8 to 3.5, p=0.211). Greater, sustained DAS28-ESR remission observed with ETN+MTX versus MTX-TT (42% and 27%, respectively; p=0.035). PD was fully suppressed by week 48 in over 90% in each arm. Planned exploratory analysis revealed OR 2.84, 95% CI 0.8 to 9.6) of achieving remission after 24 weeks of ETN administered first line compared with administered post-MTX. Conclusions: Compared with remission rates typically reported with first-line tumour necrosis factor inhabitor+MTX versus MTX-TT, we did not demonstrate a larger effect in very ERA. Neither strategy conferred remission in the majority of patients although ultrasound confirmed local inflammation suppression. Poorer ETN response following failure of MTX-TT is also suggested. Trial registration number: NCT0243318

Utility of salt-marsh foraminifera, testate amoebae and bulk-sediment δ13C values as sea-level indicators in Newfoundland, Canada

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Elsevier via the DOI in this record.We investigated the utility of foraminifera, testate amoebae and bulk-sediment δ 13 C measurements for reconstructing Holocene relative sea level from sequences of salt-marsh sediment in Newfoundland, Canada. Modern, surface sediment was collected along transects from low to supra-tidal elevations in eastern (at Placentia) and western (at Hynes Brook and Big River) Newfoundland. Consistent with previous work, low-diversity assemblages of foraminifera display an almost binary division into a higher salt-marsh assemblage dominated by Jadammina macrescens and Balticammina pseudomacrescens and a lower salt-marsh assemblage comprised of Miliammina fusca. This pattern and composition resembles those identified at other high latitude sites with cool climates and confirms that foraminifera are sea-level indicators. The lowest occurrence of testate amoebae was at approximately mean higher high water. The composition of high salt-marsh testate amoebae assemblages (Centropyxis cassis type, Trinema spp., Tracheleuglypha dentata type, and Euglypha spp.) in Newfoundland was similar to elsewhere in the North Atlantic, but preservation bias favors removal of species with idiosomic tests over those with xenosomic tests. The mixed high salt-marsh plant community in Newfoundland results in bulk surface-sediment δ 13 C values that are typical of C 3 plants, making them indistinguishable from freshwater sediment. Therefore we propose that the utility of this proxy for reconstructing RSL in eastern North America is restricted to the coastline between Chesapeake Bay and southern Nova Scotia. Using a simple, multi-proxy approach to establish that samples in three radiocarbon-dated sediment cores formed between the lowest occurrence of testate amoebae and the highest occurrence of foraminifera, we generated three example late Holocene sea-level index points at Hynes Brook.This work was supported by NSF awards OCE-1458921, OCE-1458904 and EAR-1402017 and the Robert L. Nichols student research fund of the Department of Earth and Ocean Sciences at Tufts University. Foraminiferal data from Hynes Brook and Big River were collected as part of a series of projects including “Ocean-climate variability and sea level in the North Atlantic region since AD 0” funded by the Dutch National Research Programme (NRP) on Global air pollution and Climate Change; “Coastal Records” funded by the Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam and “Simulations, Observations & Palaeoclimatic data: climate variability over the last 500 years” funded by the European Union

The effects of supernovae on the dynamical evolution of binary stars and star clusters

In this chapter I review the effects of supernovae explosions on the dynamical evolution of (1) binary stars and (2) star clusters. (1) Supernovae in binaries can drastically alter the orbit of the system, sometimes disrupting it entirely, and are thought to be partially responsible for `runaway' massive stars - stars in the Galaxy with large peculiar velocities. The ejection of the lower-mass secondary component of a binary occurs often in the event of the more massive primary star exploding as a supernova. The orbital properties of binaries that contain massive stars mean that the observed velocities of runaway stars (10s - 100s km s$^{-1}$) are consistent with this scenario. (2) Star formation is an inherently inefficient process, and much of the potential in young star clusters remains in the form of gas. Supernovae can in principle expel this gas, which would drastically alter the dynamics of the cluster by unbinding the stars from the potential. However, recent numerical simulations, and observational evidence that gas-free clusters are observed to be bound, suggest that the effects of supernova explosions on the dynamics of star clusters are likely to be minimal.Comment: 16 pages, to appear in the 'Handbook of Supernovae', eds. Paul Murdin and Athem Alsabti. This version replaces an earlier version that contained several typo

Psychometrische Prüfung des deutschsprachigen „Neurologischen Fragebogens zur Müdigkeit bei Multipler Sklerose (NFI-MS-G)“ bei Rehabilitanden mit Multipler Sklerose (Psychometric Evaluation of the ‘German Neurological Fatigue Index for Multiple Sclerosis (NFI-MS-G)’ in a Sample of Rehabilitation Patients with Multiple Sclerosis)

Purpose The purpose of this study was to provide a patient-reported outcome measure for people with multiple sclerosis (MS) comprehensively reflecting the construct of fatigue and developed upon the assumptions of the Rasch model. The Neurological Fatigue Index – Multiple Sclerosis (NFI-MS) is based on both a medical and patient-described symptom framework of fatigue and has been validated. Therefore, in this study the German version of the NFI-MS (NFI-MS-G) consisting of a physical and cognitive subscale and a summary scale was validated. Method In this bi-centre-study, 309 people with MS undergoing outpatient rehabilitation or being≥2 months before or after their inpatient rehabilitation completed the German NFI-MS-G twice within 14–21 days together with other questionnaires. Correlation with established questionnaires and Rasch analysis were used for its validation. Additionally, psychometric properties of known-groups validity, internal consistency, test-retest reliability, measurement precision and readability were tested. Finally, the English NFI-MS and German NFI-MS-G were compared with each other to equate the language versions. Results The NFI-MS-G showed good internal construct validity, convergent and known-groups validity and internal consistency (Cronbach’s alpha 0.84–0.93). The physical subscale showed minor local dependencies between items 1 and 7, 2 and 3 and 4 to 6, that could be treated by combining the respective items to testlets. Unidimensionality was found for the physical and cognitive subscales but not for the summary scale. Replacing the summary scale, a 2-domains subtest measuring the higher-order construct of fatigue was created. Good test-retest reliability (Lin’s concordance correlation coefficient of 0.86–0.90) and low floor and ceiling effects were demonstrated. The NFI-MS-G was found easily readable and invariant across groups of gender, age, disease duration, timepoint and centre. Conclusion The German version of the NFI-MS comprehensively represents the construct of fatigue and has adequate psychometric properties. The German version differs from the English original version with respect to a lack of unidimensionality of the summary scale and minor local dependencies of the physical subscale that could be canceled out using a testlet analysis

Multiple Imputation Ensembles (MIE) for dealing with missing data

Missing data is a significant issue in many real-world datasets, yet there are no robust methods for dealing with it appropriately. In this paper, we propose a robust approach to dealing with missing data in classification problems: Multiple Imputation Ensembles (MIE). Our method integrates two approaches: multiple imputation and ensemble methods and compares two types of ensembles: bagging and stacking. We also propose a robust experimental set-up using 20 benchmark datasets from the UCI machine learning repository. For each dataset, we introduce increasing amounts of data Missing Completely at Random. Firstly, we use a number of single/multiple imputation methods to recover the missing values and then ensemble a number of different classifiers built on the imputed data. We assess the quality of the imputation by using dissimilarity measures. We also evaluate the MIE performance by comparing classification accuracy on the complete and imputed data. Furthermore, we use the accuracy of simple imputation as a benchmark for comparison. We find that our proposed approach combining multiple imputation with ensemble techniques outperform others, particularly as missing data increases

The COVID‐19 Yorkshire Rehabilitation Scale (C19‐YRS): application and psychometric analysis in a post‐COVID‐19 syndrome cohort

As our understanding of the nature and prevalence of post-coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) syndrome (PCS) is increasing, a measure of the impact of COVID-19 could provide valuable insights into patients' perceptions in clinical trials and epidemiological studies as well as routine clinical practice. To evaluate the clinical usefulness and psychometric properties of the COVID-19 Yorkshire Rehabilitation Scale (C19-YRS) in patients with PCS, a prospective, observational study of 187 consecutive patients attending a post-COVID-19 rehabilitation clinic was conducted. The C19-YRS was used to record patients' symptoms, functioning, and disability. A global health question was used to measure the overall impact of PCS on health. Classical psychometric methods (data quality, scaling assumptions, targeting, reliability, and validity) were used to assess the C19-YRS. For the total group, missing data were low, scaling and targeting assumptions were satisfied, and internal consistency was high (Cronbach's α = 0.891). Relationships between the overall perception of health and patients' reports of symptoms, functioning, and disability demonstrated good concordance. This is the first study to examine the psychometric properties of an outcome measure in patients with PCS. In this sample of patients, the C19-YRS was clinically useful and satisfied standard psychometric criteria, providing preliminary evidence of its suitability as a measure of PCS

Clinician-facilitated physical activity intervention versus pulmonary rehabilitation for improving physical activity in COPD: a feasibility study

Pulmonary rehabilitation (PR) may not suit all individuals with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and may not result in increased physical activity. Higher levels of physical activity are associated with reduced mortality and morbidity. The aim of this study was to assess the feasibility of conducting a trial to investigate the effectiveness of a clinician-facilitated physical activity intervention (PAI) versus PR in improving physical activity in patients with COPD referred to PR. In this randomised controlled mixed methods feasibility study, all patients referred to PR who were eligible and willing were assessed at baseline and then randomised to the PAI or to PR. The assessments were repeated post-intervention and at 3-month follow-up. The main outcome was step count measured by Actigraph. Semi-structured interviews were conducted post-intervention. The N = 50 patients; mean (SD) age, 64.1(8.6) years, 24M were recruited and randomised; N = 23 (PAI) and n = 26 (PR): one patient was excluded from the analysis as that person did not meet the GOLD diagnostic criteria. Key feasibility criteria were met; recruitment was 11%, dropouts in PAI were 26% (n = 6) and 50% (n = 13/26) PR. Participants in both groups experienced a range of health benefits from their respective programmes. The PAI appears to be effective in increasing step counts in people with COPD: mean change (standard deviation) [confidence interval] for the PAI group was 972.0(3230.3)[–1080.3 to 3024.4], n = 12 and 4.3(662.7)[-440.9 to 449.5], n = 11 for the PR group. The PAI met all domains of fidelity. This study provides key information to inform a future-randomised controlled trial in physical activity

Molecular identification of adenoviruses associated with respiratory infection in Egypt from 2003 to 2010.

BACKGROUND: Human adenoviruses of species B, C, and E (HAdV-B, -C, -E) are frequent causative agents of acute respiratory infections worldwide. As part of a surveillance program aimed at identifying the etiology of influenza-like illness (ILI) in Egypt, we characterized 105 adenovirus isolates from clinical samples collected between 2003 and 2010. METHODS: Identification of the isolates as HAdV was accomplished by an immunofluorescence assay (IFA) and confirmed by a set of species and type specific polymerase chain reactions (PCR). RESULTS: Of the 105 isolates, 42% were identified as belonging to HAdV-B, 60% as HAdV-C, and 1% as HAdV-E. We identified a total of six co-infections by PCR, of which five were HAdV-B/HAdV-C co-infections, and one was a co-infection of two HAdV-C types: HAdV-5/HAdV-6. Molecular typing by PCR enabled the identification of eight genotypes of human adenoviruses; HAdV-3 (n = 22), HAdV-7 (n = 14), HAdV-11 (n = 8), HAdV-1 (n = 22), HAdV-2 (20), HAdV-5 (n = 15), HAdV-6 (n = 3) and HAdV-4 (n = 1). The most abundant species in the characterized collection of isolates was HAdV-C, which is concordant with existing data for worldwide epidemiology of HAdV respiratory infections. CONCLUSIONS: We identified three species, HAdV-B, -C and -E, among patients with ILI over the course of 7 years in Egypt, with at least eight diverse types circulating