Evaluation of ECMWF medium-range ensemble forecasts of precipitation for river basins

Providing probabilistic forecasts using Ensemble Prediction Systems has become increasingly popular in both the meteorological and hydrological communities. Compared to conventional deterministic forecasts, probabilistic forecasts may provide more reliable forecasts of a few hours to a number of days ahead, and hence are regarded as better tools for taking uncertainties into consideration and hedging against weather risks. It is essential to evaluate performance of raw ensemble forecasts and their potential values in forecasting extreme hydro-meteorological events. This study evaluates ECMWF's medium-range ensemble forecasts of precipitation over the period 1 January 2008 to 30 September 2012 on a selected midlatitude large-scale river basin, the Huai river basin (ca. 270 000 km2) in central-east China. The evaluation unit is sub-basin in order to consider forecast performance in a hydrologically relevant way. The study finds that forecast performance varies with sub-basin properties, between flooding and non-flooding seasons, and with the forecast properties of aggregated time steps and lead times. Although the study does not evaluate any hydrological applications of the ensemble precipitation forecasts, its results have direct implications in hydrological forecasts should these ensemble precipitation forecasts be employed in hydrology

A RAMP marker linked to the tobacco black shank resistant gene

Bulk segregant analysis (BSA) and randomly amplified microsatellite polymorphism (RAMP) were employed to analyze F2 individuals of the Yunyan 317×Hubei 517 to screen and characterize molecularmarkers linked to black shank resistant gene. A total of 800 arbitrary decamer oligonucleotide primerpairs were used for RAMP analysis. Primer pair GT (CA) 4/S89, producing one RAMP marker GT (CA)4/S89550, was tightly linked to the black shank resistant gene. Results of Southern blot suggest that the fragment GT (CA) 4/S89550 was existed in Yunyan 317 and resistant plants, and absent in Hubei 517.Linkage analysis was carried out using marker GT (CA) 4/S89550 on 752 black shank high-resistant individuals of F2 progenies from crossing between Yunyan 317 and Hubei 517. Our results indicated thatthe genetic distances between GT (CA) 4/S89550 and black shank resistant gene was 1.4cM

DAMA/LIBRA results and perspectives

The DAMA/LIBRA experiment, running at the Gran Sasso National Laboratory of the I.N.F.N. in Italy, has a sensitive mass of about 250 kg highly radiopure NaI(Tl). It is mainly devoted to the investigation of Dark Matter (DM) particles in the Galactic halo by exploiting the model independent DM annual modulation signature. The present DAMA/LIBRA experiment and the former DAMA/NaI one (the first generation experiment having an exposed mass of about 100 kg) have released so far results corresponding to a total exposure of 1.17 ton yr over 13 annual cycles. They provide a model independent evidence of the presence of DM particles in the galactic halo at 8.9 sigma C.L.. A short summary of the obtained results is presented and future perspectives of the experiment mentioned.Comment: 12 pages, Proceed. of the 15th Bled Workshop "What Comes Beyond Standard Models" (December 2012), Vol. 13, No.

Multimodality Treatment for Early-Stage Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Bridging Therapy for Liver Transplantation

Purpose: To evaluate the efficiency of a multimodality approach consisting of transcatheter arterial chemoembolization (TACE) and radiofrequency ablation (RFA) as bridging therapy for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) awaiting orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT) and to evaluate the histopathological response in explant specimens. Materials and Methods: Between April 2001 and November 2011, 36 patients with 50 HCC nodules (1.4-5.0 cm, median 2.8 cm) on the waiting list for liver transplantation were treated by TACE and RFA. The drop-out rate during the follow-up period was recorded. The local efficacy was evaluated by histopathological examination of the explanted livers. Results: During a median follow-up time of 29 (4.0-95.3) months the cumulative drop-out rate for the patients on the waiting list was 0, 2.8, 5.5, 11.0, 13.9 and 16.7% at 3, 6, 12, 24, 36 and 48 months, respectively. 16 patients (with 26 HCC lesions) out of 36(44.4%) were transplanted by the end of study with a median waiting list time of 13.7 (2.5-37.8) months. The histopathological examination of the explanted specimens revealed a complete necrosis in 20 of 26 HCCs (76.9%), whereas 6 (23.1%) nodules showed viable residual tumor tissue. All transplanted patients are alive at a median time of 29.9 months. Imaging correlation showed 100% specificity and 66.7% sensitivity for the depiction of residual or recurrent tumor. Conclusion: We conclude that TACE.combined with RFA could provide an effective treatment to decrease the drop-out rate from the OLT waiting list for HCC patients. Furthermore, this combination therapy results in high rates of complete tumor necrosis as evaluated in the histopathological analysis of the explanted livers. Further randomized trials are needed to demonstrate if there is a benefit in comparison with a single-treatment approach. copyright (C) 2012 S. Karger AG, Base

Efficient calculation of higher-order optical waveguide dispersion

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)An efficient numerical strategy to compute the higher-order dispersion parameters of optical waveguides is presented. For the first time to our knowledge, a systematic study of the errors involved in the higher-order dispersions' numerical calculation process is made, showing that the present strategy can accurately model those parameters. Such strategy combines a full-vectorial finite element modal solver and a proper finite difference differentiation algorithm. Its performance has been carefully assessed through the analysis of several key geometries. In addition, the optimization of those higher-order dispersion parameters can also be carried out by coupling to the present scheme a genetic algorithm, as shown here through the design of a photonic crystal fiber suitable for parametric amplification applications. (C) 2010 Optical Society of America181919522+Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)FAPESP [05/51689-2, 06/50912-2

Optimized T1- and T2-weighted volumetric brain imaging as a diagnostic tool in very preterm neonates.

BACKGROUND: T1- and T2-W MR sequences used for obtaining diagnostic information and morphometric measurements in the neonatal brain are frequently acquired using different imaging protocols. Optimizing one protocol for obtaining both kinds of information is valuable. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether high-resolution T1- and T2-W volumetric sequences optimized for preterm brain imaging could provide both diagnostic and morphometric value. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Thirty preterm neonates born between 24 and 32 weeks' gestational age were scanned during the first 2 weeks after birth. T1- and T2-W high-resolution sequences were optimized in terms of signal-to-noise ratio, contrast-to-noise ratio and scan time and compared to conventional spin-echo-based sequences. RESULTS: No differences were found between conventional and high-resolution T1-W sequences for diagnostic confidence, image quality and motion artifacts. A preference for conventional over high-resolution T2-W sequences for image quality was observed. High-resolution T1 images provided better delineation of thalamic myelination and the superior temporal sulcus. No differences were found for detection of myelination and sulcation using conventional and high-resolution T2-W images. CONCLUSION: High-resolution T1- and T2-W volumetric sequences can be used in clinical MRI in the very preterm brain to provide both diagnostic and morphometric information

Staff perspectives on the feasibility of a clinical pathway for anxiety and depression in cancer care, and mid-implementation adaptations.

BACKGROUND: Clinical pathways (CPs) are intended to standardise and improve care but do not always produce positive outcomes, possibly because they were not adapted to suit the specific context in which they were enacted. This qualitative study aimed to explore staff perspectives of implementation of a CP for routine screening, assessment, referral and management of anxiety and depression (the ADAPT CP) for patients with cancer, focussing on perceived feasibility of the CP and negotiated adaptations made during the implementation phase. METHODS: The ADAPT CP was implemented in 12 urban and regional oncology services in Australia. Services were randomised to receive core versus enhanced implementation strategies. Core sites received support until implementation commencement and could access progress reports. Enhanced sites received proactive, ongoing support during the 12-month implementation. Purposively selected staff were interviewed prior to implementation (n = 88) and 6 months later, half-way through the implementation period (n = 89). Monthly meetings with lead multi-disciplinary teams at the eight enhanced sites were recorded. Data were thematically analysed. RESULTS: Six overarching themes were identified: ADAPT is of high value; timing for introducing the CP and screening is difficult; online screening is challenging; a burden too much; no-one to refer patients to; and micro-logistics are key. While early screening was deemed desirable, diverse barriers meant this was complex, with adaptations made to time and screening location. Online screening prompted by email, seen as time-saving and efficient, also proved unsuccessful in some services, with adaptations made to in-clinic or phone screening, or repeated email reminders. Staff negative attitudes to ADAPT, time constraints, and perceived poor fit of ADAPT to work roles and flows, all impacted implementation, with key tasks often devolving to a few key individuals. Nevertheless, services remained committed to the ADAPT CP, and worked hard to create, review and adapt strategies to address challenges to optimise success. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates the interactive nature of health service change, with staff actively engaging with, forming views on, and problem-solving adaptations of the ADAPT CP to overcome barriers. Obtaining staff feedback is critical to ensure health service change is sustainable, meaningful and achieves its promise of improving patient outcomes. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The study was registered prospectively with the ANZCTR on 22/3/2017. Trial ID ACTRN12617000411347

Measurement of the Branching Fraction of J/psi --> pi+ pi- pi0

Using 58 million J/psi and 14 million psi' decays obtained by the BESII experiment, the branching fraction of J/psi --> pi+ pi- pi0 is determined. The result is (2.10+/-0.12)X10^{-2}, which is significantly higher than previous measurements.Comment: 9 pages, 8 figures, RevTex

First observation of psi(2S)-->K_S K_L

The decay psi(2S)-->K_S K_L is observed for the first time using psi(2S) data collected with the Beijing Spectrometer (BESII) at the Beijing Electron Positron Collider (BEPC); the branching ratio is determined to be B(psi(2S)-->K_S K_L) = (5.24\pm 0.47 \pm 0.48)\times 10^{-5}. Compared with J/psi-->K_S K_L, the psi(2S) branching ratio is enhanced relative to the prediction of the perturbative QCD ``12%'' rule. The result, together with the branching ratios of psi(2S) decays to other pseudoscalar meson pairs (\pi^+\pi^- and K^+K^-), is used to investigate the relative phase between the three-gluon and the one-photon annihilation amplitudes of psi(2S) decays.Comment: 5 pages, 4 figures, 2 tables, submitted to Phys. Rev. Let