On Bayesian Search for the Feasible Space Under Computationally Expensive Constraints

We are often interested in identifying the feasible subset of a decision space under multiple constraints to permit effective design exploration. If determining feasibility required computationally expensive simulations, the cost of exploration would be prohibitive. Bayesian search is data-efficient for such problems: starting from a small dataset, the central concept is to use Bayesian models of constraints with an acquisition function to locate promising solutions that may improve predictions of feasibility when the dataset is augmented. At the end of this sequential active learning approach with a limited number of expensive evaluations, the models can accurately predict the feasibility of any solution obviating the need for full simulations. In this paper, we propose a novel acquisition function that combines the probability that a solution lies at the boundary between feasible and infeasible spaces (representing exploitation) and the entropy in predictions (representing exploration). Experiments confirmed the efficacy of the proposed function

Different genes interact with particulate matter and tobacco smoke exposure in affecting lung function decline in the general population

BACKGROUND: Oxidative stress related genes modify the effects of ambient air pollution or tobacco smoking on lung function decline. The impact of interactions might be substantial, but previous studies mostly focused on main effects of single genes. OBJECTIVES: We studied the interaction of both exposures with a broad set of oxidative-stress related candidate genes and pathways on lung function decline and contrasted interactions between exposures. METHODS: For 12679 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), change in forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV(1)), FEV(1) over forced vital capacity (FEV(1)/FVC), and mean forced expiratory flow between 25 and 75% of the FVC (FEF(25-75)) was regressed on interval exposure to particulate matter >10 microm in diameter (PM10) or packyears smoked (a), additive SNP effects (b), and interaction terms between (a) and (b) in 669 adults with GWAS data. Interaction p-values for 152 genes and 14 pathways were calculated by the adaptive rank truncation product (ARTP) method, and compared between exposures. Interaction effect sizes were contrasted for the strongest SNPs of nominally significant genes (p(interaction)>0.05). Replication was attempted for SNPs with MAF<10% in 3320 SAPALDIA participants without GWAS. RESULTS: On the SNP-level, rs2035268 in gene SNCA accelerated FEV(1)/FVC decline by 3.8% (p(interaction) = 2.5x10(-6)), and rs12190800 in PARK2 attenuated FEV1 decline by 95.1 ml p(interaction) = 9.7x10(-8)) over 11 years, while interacting with PM10. Genes and pathways nominally interacting with PM10 and packyears exposure differed substantially. Gene CRISP2 presented a significant interaction with PM10 (p(interaction) = 3.0x10(-4)) on FEV(1)/FVC decline. Pathway interactions were weak. Replications for the strongest SNPs in PARK2 and CRISP2 were not successful. CONCLUSIONS: Consistent with a stratified response to increasing oxidative stress, different genes and pathways potentially mediate PM10 and tobac smoke effects on lung function decline. Ignoring environmental exposures would miss these patterns, but achieving sufficient sample size and comparability across study samples is challengin

Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses: The PRISMA Statement

David Moher and colleagues introduce PRISMA, an update of the QUOROM guidelines for reporting systematic reviews and meta-analyse

Further investigation of confirmed urinary tract infection (UTI) in children under five years: a systematic review.

Background: Further investigation of confirmed UTI in children aims to prevent renal scarring and future complications. Methods: We conducted a systematic review to determine the most effective approach to the further investigation of confirmed urinary tract infection (UTI) in children under five years of age. Results: 73 studies were included. Many studies had methodological limitations or were poorly reported. Effectiveness of further investigations: One study found that routine imaging did not lead to a reduction in recurrent UTIs or renal scarring. Diagnostic accuracy: The studies do not support the use of less invasive tests such as ultrasound as an alternative to renal scintigraphy, either to rule out infection of the upper urinary tract (LR- = 0.57, 95%CI: 0.47, 0.68) and thus to exclude patients from further investigation or to detect renal scarring (LR+ = 3.5, 95% CI: 2.5, 4.8). None of the tests investigated can accurately predict the development of renal scarring. The available evidence supports the consideration of contrast-enhanced ultrasound techniques for detecting vesico-ureteric reflux (VUR), as an alternative to micturating cystourethrography (MCUG) (LR+ = 14.1, 95% CI: 9.5, 20.8; LR- = 0.20, 95%CI: 0.13, 0.29); these techniques have the advantage of not requiring exposure to ionising radiation. Conclusion: There is no evidence to support the clinical effectiveness of routine investigation of children with confirmed UTI. Primary research on the effectiveness, in terms of improved patient outcome, of testing at all stages in the investigation of confirmed urinary tract infection is urgently required

An experimental investigation into the dimensional error of powder-binder three-dimensional printing

This paper is an experimental investigation into the dimensional error of the rapid prototyping additive process of powder-binder three-dimensional printing. Ten replicates of a purpose-designed part were produced using a three-dimensional printer, and measurements of the internal and external features of all surfaces were made using a general purpose coordinate measuring machine. The results reveal that the bases of all replicates (nominally flat) have a concave curvature, producing a flatness error of the primary datum. This is in contrast to findings regarding other three-dimensional printing processes, widely reported in the literature, where a convex curvature was observed. All external surfaces investigated in this study showed positive deviation from nominal values, especially in the z-axis. The z-axis error consisted of a consistent positive cumulative error and a different constant error in different replicates. By compensating for datum surface error, the average total height error of the test parts can be reduced by 25.52 %. All the dimensional errors are hypothesised to be explained by expansion and the subsequent distortion caused by layer interaction during and after the printing process

Improving the use of research evidence in guideline development: 8. Synthesis and presentation of evidence

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization (WHO), like many other organisations around the world, has recognised the need to use more rigorous processes to ensure that health care recommendations are informed by the best available research evidence. This is the eighth of a series of 16 reviews that have been prepared as background for advice from the WHO Advisory Committee on Health Research to WHO on how to achieve this. OBJECTIVES: We reviewed the literature on the synthesis and presentation of research evidence, focusing on four key questions. METHODS: We searched PubMed and three databases of methodological studies for existing systematic reviews and relevant methodological research. We did not conduct systematic reviews ourselves. Our conclusions are based on the available evidence, consideration of what WHO and other organisations are doing and logical arguments. KEY QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS: We found two reviews of instruments for critically appraising systematic reviews, several studies of the importance of using extensive searches for reviews and determining when it is important to update reviews, and consensus statements about the reporting of reviews that informed our answers to the following questions. How should existing systematic reviews be critically appraised? • Because preparing systematic reviews can take over a year and require capacity and resources, existing reviews should be used when possible and updated, if needed. • Standard criteria, such as A MeaSurement Tool to Assess Reviews (AMSTAR), should be used to critically appraise existing systematic reviews, together with an assessment of the relevance of the review to the questions being asked. When and how should WHO undertake or commission new reviews? • Consideration should be given to undertaking or commissioning a new review whenever a relevant, up-to-date review of good quality is not available. • When time or resources are limited it may be necessary to undertake rapid assessments. The methods that are used to do these assessments should be reported, including important limitations and uncertainties and explicit consideration of the need and urgency of undertaking a full systematic review. • Because WHO has limited capacity for undertaking systematic reviews, reviews will often need to be commissioned when a new review is needed. Consideration should be given to establishing collaborating centres to undertake or support this work, similar to what some national organisations have done. How should the findings of systematic reviews be summarised and presented to committees responsible for making recommendations? • Concise summaries (evidence tables) of the best available evidence for each important outcome, including benefits, harms and costs, should be presented to the groups responsible for making recommendations. These should include an assessment of the quality of the evidence and a summary of the findings for each outcome. • The full systematic reviews, on which the summaries are based, should also be available to both those making recommendations and users of the recommendations. What additional information is needed to inform recommendations and how should this information be synthesised with information about effects and presented to committees? • Additional information that is needed to inform recommendations includes factors that might modify the expected effects, need (prevalence, baseline risk or status), values (the relative importance of key outcomes), costs and the availability of resources. • Any assumptions that are made about values or other factors that may vary from setting to setting should be made explicit. • For global guidelines that are intended to inform decisions in different settings, consideration should be given to using a template to assist the synthesis of information specific to a setting with the global evidence of the effects of the relevant interventions

Phylogenetic Distinctiveness of Middle Eastern and Southeast Asian Village Dog Y Chromosomes Illuminates Dog Origins

Modern genetic samples are commonly used to trace dog origins, which entails untested assumptions that village dogs reflect indigenous ancestry or that breed origins can be reliably traced to particular regions. We used high-resolution Y chromosome markers (SNP and STR) and mitochondrial DNA to analyze 495 village dogs/dingoes from the Middle East and Southeast Asia, along with 138 dogs from >35 modern breeds to 1) assess genetic divergence between Middle Eastern and Southeast Asian village dogs and their phylogenetic affinities to Australian dingoes and gray wolves (Canis lupus) and 2) compare the genetic affinities of modern breeds to regional indigenous village dog populations. The Y chromosome markers indicated that village dogs in the two regions corresponded to reciprocally monophyletic clades, reflecting several to many thousand years divergence, predating the Neolithic ages, and indicating long-indigenous roots to those regions. As expected, breeds of the Middle East and East Asia clustered within the respective regional village dog clade. Australian dingoes also clustered in the Southeast Asian clade. However, the European and American breeds clustered almost entirely within the Southeast Asian clade, even sharing many haplotypes, suggesting a substantial and recent influence of East Asian dogs in the creation of European breeds. Comparison to 818 published breed dog Y STR haplotypes confirmed this conclusion and indicated that some African breeds reflect another distinct patrilineal origin. The lower-resolution mtDNA marker consistently supported Y-chromosome results. Both marker types confirmed previous findings of higher genetic diversity in dogs from Southeast Asia than the Middle East. Our findings demonstrate the importance of village dogs as windows into the past and provide a reference against which ancient DNA can be used to further elucidate origins and spread of the domestic dog

Effect of a low fat versus a low carbohydrate weight loss dietary intervention on biomarkers of long term survival in breast cancer patients ('CHOICE'): study protocol

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Weight loss in overweight or obese breast cancer patients is associated with an improved prognosis for long term survival. However, it is not clear whether the macronutrient composition of the chosen weight loss dietary plan imparts further prognostic benefit. A study protocol is presented for a dietary intervention to investigate the effects of weight loss dietary patterns that vary markedly in fat and carbohydrate contents on biomarkers of exposure to metabolic processes that may promote tumorigenesis and that are predictive of long term survival. The study will also determine how much weight must be lost for biomarkers to change in a favorable direction.</p> <p>Methods/Design</p> <p>Approximately 370 overweight or obese postmenopausal breast cancer survivors (body mass index: 25.0 to 34.9 kg/m²) will be accrued and assigned to one of two weight loss intervention programs or a non-intervention control group. The dietary intervention is implemented in a free living population to test the two extremes of popular weight loss dietary patterns: a high carbohydrate, low fat diet versus a low carbohydrate, high fat diet. The effects of these dietary patterns on biomarkers for glucose homeostasis, chronic inflammation, cellular oxidation, and steroid sex hormone metabolism will be measured. Participants will attend 3 screening and dietary education visits, and 7 monthly one-on-one dietary counseling and clinical data measurement visits in addition to 5 group visits in the intervention arms. Participants in the control arm will attend two clinical data measurement visits at baseline and 6 months. The primary outcome is high sensitivity C-reactive protein. Secondary outcomes include interleukin-6, tumor necrosis factor-α, insulin-like growth factor-1 (IGF), IGF binding protein-3, 8-isoprostane-F2-alpha, estrone, estradiol, progesterone, sex hormone binding globulin, adiponectin, and leptin.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>While clinical data indicate that excess weight for height is associated with poor prognosis for long term survival, little attention is paid to weight control in the clinical management of breast cancer. This study will provide information that can be used to answer important patient questions about the effects of dietary pattern and magnitude of weight loss on long term survival following breast cancer treatment.</p> <p>Clinical Trial Registration</p> <p>CA125243</p