Comparison of techniques for handling missing covariate data within prognostic modelling studies: a simulation study

Background: There is no consensus on the most appropriate approach to handle missing covariate data within prognostic modelling studies. Therefore a simulation study was performed to assess the effects of different missing data techniques on the performance of a prognostic model. Methods: Datasets were generated to resemble the skewed distributions seen in a motivating breast cancer example. Multivariate missing data were imposed on four covariates using four different mechanisms; missing completely at random (MCAR), missing at random (MAR), missing not at random (MNAR) and a combination of all three mechanisms. Five amounts of incomplete cases from 5% to 75% were considered. Complete case analysis (CC), single imputation (SI) and five multiple imputation (MI) techniques available within the R statistical software were investigated: a) data augmentation (DA) approach assuming a multivariate normal distribution, b) DA assuming a general location model, c) regression switching imputation, d) regression switching with predictive mean matching (MICE-PMM) and e) flexible additive imputation models. A Cox proportional hazards model was fitted and appropriate estimates for the regression coefficients and model performance measures were obtained. Results: Performing a CC analysis produced unbiased regression estimates, but inflated standard errors, which affected the significance of the covariates in the model with 25% or more missingness. Using SI, underestimated the variability; resulting in poor coverage even with 10% missingness. Of the MI approaches, applying MICE-PMM produced, in general, the least biased estimates and better coverage for the incomplete covariates and better model performance for all mechanisms. However, this MI approach still produced biased regression coefficient estimates for the incomplete skewed continuous covariates when 50% or more cases had missing data imposed with a MCAR, MAR or combined mechanism. When the missingness depended on the incomplete covariates, i.e. MNAR, estimates were biased with more than 10% incomplete cases for all MI approaches. Conclusion: The results from this simulation study suggest that performing MICE-PMM may be the preferred MI approach provided that less than 50% of the cases have missing data and the missing data are not MNAR

Modelling information literacy for classrooms of the future

Although numerous models exist to support the development of information literacy skills, most were designed to support 20th-century technologies and pedagogies. It is widely accepted that information literacy models needs to adapt and develop in response to changes in both technology and pedagogy, but the nature of this development is, as yet, uncertain. iTEC (Innovative Technologies for Engaging Classrooms) is a major EU-funded project attempting to bring about transformation in learning and teaching through the strategic application of learning technology. In this article, findings from the evaluation of iTEC are used to consider how effectively information literacy models which are currently available can support emerging technologically-engaged pedagogies. These findings suggest that an information literacy model for the 21st century needs to be flexible, suited to collaborative work and most importantly acknowledge and support students as creators of knowledge, not simply consumers

Classical kinetic energy, quantum fluctuation terms and kinetic-energy functionals

We employ a recently formulated dequantization procedure to obtain an exact expression for the kinetic energy which is applicable to all kinetic-energy functionals. We express the kinetic energy of an N-electron system as the sum of an N-electron classical kinetic energy and an N-electron purely quantum kinetic energy arising from the quantum fluctuations that turn the classical momentum into the quantum momentum. This leads to an interesting analogy with Nelson's stochastic approach to quantum mechanics, which we use to conceptually clarify the physical nature of part of the kinetic-energy functional in terms of statistical fluctuations and in direct correspondence with Fisher Information Theory. We show that the N-electron purely quantum kinetic energy can be written as the sum of the (one-electron) Weizsacker term and an (N-1)-electron kinetic correlation term. We further show that the Weizsacker term results from local fluctuations while the kinetic correlation term results from the nonlocal fluctuations. For one-electron orbitals (where kinetic correlation is neglected) we obtain an exact (albeit impractical) expression for the noninteracting kinetic energy as the sum of the classical kinetic energy and the Weizsacker term. The classical kinetic energy is seen to be explicitly dependent on the electron phase and this has implications for the development of accurate orbital-free kinetic-energy functionals. Also, there is a direct connection between the classical kinetic energy and the angular momentum and, across a row of the periodic table, the classical kinetic energy component of the noninteracting kinetic energy generally increases as Z increases.Comment: 10 pages, 1 figure. To appear in Theor Chem Ac

Comparison of imputation methods for handling missing covariate data when fitting a Cox proportional hazards model: a resampling study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The appropriate handling of missing covariate data in prognostic modelling studies is yet to be conclusively determined. A resampling study was performed to investigate the effects of different missing data methods on the performance of a prognostic model.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Observed data for 1000 cases were sampled with replacement from a large complete dataset of 7507 patients to obtain 500 replications. Five levels of missingness (ranging from 5% to 75%) were imposed on three covariates using a missing at random (MAR) mechanism. Five missing data methods were applied; a) complete case analysis (CC) b) single imputation using regression switching with predictive mean matching (SI), c) multiple imputation using regression switching imputation, d) multiple imputation using regression switching with predictive mean matching (MICE-PMM) and e) multiple imputation using flexible additive imputation models. A Cox proportional hazards model was fitted to each dataset and estimates for the regression coefficients and model performance measures obtained.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>CC produced biased regression coefficient estimates and inflated standard errors (SEs) with 25% or more missingness. The underestimated SE after SI resulted in poor coverage with 25% or more missingness. Of the MI approaches investigated, MI using MICE-PMM produced the least biased estimates and better model performance measures. However, this MI approach still produced biased regression coefficient estimates with 75% missingness.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Very few differences were seen between the results from all missing data approaches with 5% missingness. However, performing MI using MICE-PMM may be the preferred missing data approach for handling between 10% and 50% MAR missingness.</p

Why is adolescent drinking declining? A systematic review and narrative synthesis

Background: Adolescent drinking has declined across many developed countries from the turn of the century. The aim of this review is to explore existing evidence examining possible reasons for this decline. Methods: We conducted systematic searches across five databases: Medline, PsycINFO, CINAHL, Informit Health and Scopus. Studies were included if association between declining alcohol consumption and potential explanatory factors were measured over time. Narrative synthesis was undertaken due to substantial methodological heterogeneity in these studies. Results: 17 studies met the inclusion criteria. Five studies found moderate evidence for changes in parental practices as a potential cause for the decline. Five studies that examined whether alcohol policy changes influenced the decline found weak evidence of association. Three studies explored whether alcohol use has been substituted by illicit substances but no evidence was found. Two studies examined the effect of a weaker economy; both identified increase in adolescent alcohol use during times of economic crisis. One study indicated that changes in exposure to alcohol advertising were positively associated with the decline and another examined the role of immigration of non-drinking populations but found no evidence of association. One study tested participation in organised sports and party lifestyle as a potential cause but did not use robust analytical methods and therefore did not provide strong evidence of association for the decline. Conclusions: The most robust and consistent evidence was identified for shifts in parental practices. Further research is required using robust analytical methods such as ARIMA modelling techniques and utilising cross-national data

A chronometric exploration of high-resolution ‘sensitive TMS masking’ effects on subjective and objective measures of vision

Transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) can induce masking by interfering with ongoing neural activity in early visual cortex. Previous work has explored the chronometry of occipital involvement in vision by using single pulses of TMS with high temporal resolution. However, conventionally TMS intensities have been high and the only measure used to evaluate masking was objective in nature. Recent studies have begun to incorporate subjective measures of vision, alongside objective ones. The current study goes beyond previous work in two regards. First, we explored both objective vision (an orientation discrimination task) and subjective vision (a stimulus visibility rating on a four-point scale), across a wide range of time windows with high temporal resolution. Second, we used a very sensitive TMS-masking paradigm: stimulation was at relatively low TMS intensities, with a figure-8 coil, and the small stimulus was difficult to discriminate already at baseline level. We hypothesized that this should increase the effective temporal resolution of our paradigm. Perhaps for this reason, we are able to report a rather interesting masking curve. Within the classical-masking time window, previously reported to encompass broad SOAs anywhere between 60 and 120 ms, we report not one, but at least two dips in objective performance, with no masking in-between. The subjective measure of vision did not mirror this pattern. These preliminary data from our exploratory design suggest that, with sensitive TMS masking, we might be able to reveal visual processes in early visual cortex previously unreported

Molecular and cellular mechanisms underlying the evolution of form and function in the amniote jaw.

The amniote jaw complex is a remarkable amalgamation of derivatives from distinct embryonic cell lineages. During development, the cells in these lineages experience concerted movements, migrations, and signaling interactions that take them from their initial origins to their final destinations and imbue their derivatives with aspects of form including their axial orientation, anatomical identity, size, and shape. Perturbations along the way can produce defects and disease, but also generate the variation necessary for jaw evolution and adaptation. We focus on molecular and cellular mechanisms that regulate form in the amniote jaw complex, and that enable structural and functional integration. Special emphasis is placed on the role of cranial neural crest mesenchyme (NCM) during the species-specific patterning of bone, cartilage, tendon, muscle, and other jaw tissues. We also address the effects of biomechanical forces during jaw development and discuss ways in which certain molecular and cellular responses add adaptive and evolutionary plasticity to jaw morphology. Overall, we highlight how variation in molecular and cellular programs can promote the phenomenal diversity and functional morphology achieved during amniote jaw evolution or lead to the range of jaw defects and disease that affect the human condition

Testimonial Injustice and Vulnerability: A Qualitative Analysis of Participation in the Court of Protection

This article explores participation in Court of Protection (COP) proceedings by people considered vulnerable. The paper is based on original data obtained from observing COP proceedings and reviewing COP case files. It is argued that the observed absence of the subject of proceedings is a form of testimonial injustice, that is, a failure to value a person in their capacity as a giver of knowledge. The issue of competence to give evidence is considered but it is argued that it is not the formal evidential rules that prohibit a vulnerable adult from giving evidence. Instead, it is the result of a persistent assumption that they are inherently vulnerable and therefore lack credibility as a knowledge giver. This assumption results in the voices of vulnerable adults being routinely absent from legal proceedings. It is argued that having a voice in the courtroom is essential and has a number of intrinsic and instrumental benefits. The paper concludes with a discussion about the implications of the research, including the current trend towards the increased use of special measures, and recommends a presumption in favour of the subject of COP proceedings giving evidence

Climate Influence on Deep Sea Populations

Dynamics of biological processes on the deep-sea floor are traditionally thought to be controlled by vertical sinking of particles from the euphotic zone at a seasonal scale. However, little is known about the influence of lateral particle transport from continental margins to deep-sea ecosystems. To address this question, we report here how the formation of dense shelf waters and their subsequent downslope cascade, a climate induced phenomenon, affects the population of the deep-sea shrimp Aristeus antennatus. We found evidence that strong currents associated with intense cascading events correlates with the disappearance of this species from its fishing grounds, producing a temporary fishery collapse. Despite this initial negative effect, landings increase between 3 and 5 years after these major events, preceded by an increase of juveniles. The transport of particulate organic matter associated with cascading appears to enhance the recruitment of this deep-sea living resource, apparently mitigating the general trend of overexploitation. Because cascade of dense water from continental shelves is a global phenomenon, we anticipate that its influence on deep-sea ecosystems and fisheries worldwide should be larger than previously thought

Protocol for a randomized controlled trial of a specialized health coaching intervention to prevent excessive gestational weight gain and postpartum weight retention in women: the HIPP study

BackgroundPregnancy is a time of significant physiological and physical change for women. In particular, it is a time at which many women are at risk of gaining excessive weight. We describe the rationale and methods of the Health in Pregnancy and Post-birth (HIPP) Study, a study which aims primarily to determine the effectiveness of a specialized health coaching (HC) intervention during pregnancy, compared to education alone, in preventing excessive gestational weight gain and postpartum weight retention 12 months post birth. A secondary aim of this study is to evaluate the mechanisms by which our HC intervention impacts on weight management both during pregnancy and post birth.Methods/DesignThe randomized controlled trial will be conducted with 220 women who have a BMI &gt; 18.5 (American IOM cut-off for normal weight), are 18 years of age or older, English speaking, no history of disordered eating or diabetes and are less than 18 weeks gestation at recruitment. Women will be randomly allocated to either a specialized HC intervention group or an Education Alone group. Our specialized HC intervention has two components: (1) one-on-one sessions with a Health Coach, and (2) two by two hour educational group sessions led by a Health Coach. Women in the Education Alone group will receive two by two hour educational group sessions with no HC components. Body Mass Index, waist circumference, and psychological factors including motivation, readiness to change, symptoms of depression and anxiety, and body dissatisfaction will be assessed at baseline (14-16 weeks gestation), and again at follow-up: 32 weeks gestation, 6 weeks, 6 months and 12 months postpartum.DiscussionOur study responds to the urgent need to design effective interventions in pregnancy to prevent excessive gestational weight gain and postpartum weight retention. Our pregnancy HC intervention is novel and innovative and has been designed to be easily adopted by health professionals who work with pregnant women, such as obstetricians, midwives, allied health professionals and health psychologists. <br /