Assessing the value of integrating national longitudinal shopping data into respiratory disease forecasting models

The COVID-19 pandemic led to unparalleled pressure on healthcare services. Improved health-care planning in relation to diseases affecting the respiratory system has consequently become a key concern. We investigated the value of integrating sales of non-prescription medications commonly bought for managing respiratory symptoms, to improve forecasting of weekly registered deaths from respiratory disease at local levels across England, by using over 2 billion transactions logged by a UK high street retailer from March 2016 to March 2020. We report the results from the novel AI (Artificial Intelligence) explainability variable importance tool Model Class Reliance implemented on the PADRUS model (Prediction of Amount of Deaths by Respiratory disease Using Sales). PADRUS is a machine learning model optimised to predict registered deaths from respiratory disease in 314 local authority areas across England through the integration of shopping sales data and focused on purchases of non-prescription medications. We found strong evidence that models incorporating sales data significantly out-perform other models that solely use variables traditionally associated with respiratory disease (e.g. sociodemographics and weather data). Accuracy gains are highest (increases in R² (coefficient of determination) between 0.09 to 0.11) in periods of maximum risk to the general public. Results demonstrate the potential to utilise sales data to monitor population health with information at a high level of geographic granularity

Prospective Validation of Pooled Prognostic Factors in Women with Advanced Cervical Cancer Treated with Chemotherapy with/without Bevacizumab: NRG Oncology/GOG Study

PURPOSE: In the randomized phase III trial, Gynecologic Oncology Group (GOG) protocol 240, the incorporation of bevacizumab with chemotherapy significantly increased overall survival (OS) in women with advanced cervical cancer. A major objective of GOG-240 was to prospectively analyze previously identified pooled clinical prognostic factors known as the Moore criteria. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: Potential negative factors included black race, performance status 1, pelvic disease, prior cisplatin, and progression-free interval <365 days. Risk categories included low-risk (0-1 factor), mid-risk (2-3 factors), and high-risk (4-5 factors). Each test of association was conducted at the 5% level of significance. Logistic regression and survival analysis was used to determine whether factors were prognostic or could be used to guide therapy. RESULTS: For the entire population (n = 452), high-risk patients had significantly worse OS (P < 0.0001). The HRs of death for treating with topotecan in low-risk, mid-risk, and high-risk subsets are 1.18 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.63-2.24], 1.11 (95% CI, 0.82-1.5), and 0.84 (95% CI, 0.50-1.42), respectively. The HRs of death for treating with bevacizumab in low-risk, mid-risk, and high-risk subsets are 0.96 (95% CI, 0.51-1.83; P = 0.9087), 0.673 (95% CI, 0.5-0.91; P = 0.0094), and 0.536 (95% CI, 0.32-0.905; P = 0.0196), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first prospectively validated scoring system in cervical cancer. The Moore criteria have real-world clinical applicability. Toxicity concerns may justify omission of bevacizumab in some low-risk patients where survival benefit is small. The benefit to receiving bevacizumab appears to be greatest in the moderate- and high-risk subgroups (5.8-month increase in median OS)

Diversity of symptom phenotypes in SARS-CoV-2 community infections observed in multiple large datasets

Variability in case severity and in the range of symptoms experienced has been apparent from the earliest months of the COVID-19 pandemic. From a clinical perspective, symptom variability might indicate various routes/mechanisms by which infection leads to disease, with different routes requiring potentially different treatment approaches. For public health and control of transmission, symptoms in community cases were the prompt on which action such as PCR testing and isolation was taken. However, interpreting symptoms presents challenges, for instance in balancing sensitivity and specificity of individual symptoms with the need to maximise case finding, whilst managing demand for limited resources such as testing. For both clinical and transmission control reasons, we require an approach that allows for the possibility of distinct symptom phenotypes, rather than assuming variability along a single dimension. Here we address this problem by bringing together four large and diverse datasets deriving from routine testing, a population-representative household survey and participatory smartphone surveillance in the United Kingdom. Through use of cutting-edge unsupervised classification techniques from statistics and machine learning, we characterise symptom phenotypes among symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 PCR-positive community cases, making comparisons across datasets and by age bands. While we observe separation due to the total number of symptoms experienced by cases, we also see a separation of symptoms into gastrointestinal, respiratory and other types, and different symptom co-occurrence patterns at the extremes of age. In this way, we are able to demonstrate the deep structure of symptoms of COVID-19 without usual biases due to study design.Comment: 52 pages; 25 figure

‘It's all the way you look at it, you know’: reading Bill ‘Bojangles’ Robinson's film career

This paper engages with a major paradox in African American tap dancer Bill ‘Bojangles’ Robinson's film image – namely, its concurrent adherences to and contestations of dehumanising racial iconography – to reveal the complex and often ambivalent ways in which identity is staged and enacted. Although Robinson is often understood as an embodiment of popular cultural imagery historically designed to dehumanise African Americans, this paper shows that Robinson's artistry displaces these readings by providing viewing pleasure for black, as much as white, audiences. Robinson's racially segregated scenes in Dixiana (1930) and Hooray for Love (1935) illuminate classical Hollywood's racial codes, whilst also showing how his inclusion within these otherwise all-white films provides grounding for creative and self-reflexive artistry. The films' references to Robinson's stage image and artistry overlap with minstrelsy-derived constructions of ‘blackness’, with the effect that they heighten possible interpretations of his cinematic persona by evading representational conclusion. Ultimately, Robinson's films should be read as sites of representational struggle that help to uncover the slipperiness of performances of African American identities in 1930s Hollywood

LSST Science Book, Version 2.0

A survey that can cover the sky in optical bands over wide fields to faint magnitudes with a fast cadence will enable many of the exciting science opportunities of the next decade. The Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) will have an effective aperture of 6.7 meters and an imaging camera with field of view of 9.6 deg^2, and will be devoted to a ten-year imaging survey over 20,000 deg^2 south of +15 deg. Each pointing will be imaged 2000 times with fifteen second exposures in six broad bands from 0.35 to 1.1 microns, to a total point-source depth of r~27.5. The LSST Science Book describes the basic parameters of the LSST hardware, software, and observing plans. The book discusses educational and outreach opportunities, then goes on to describe a broad range of science that LSST will revolutionize: mapping the inner and outer Solar System, stellar populations in the Milky Way and nearby galaxies, the structure of the Milky Way disk and halo and other objects in the Local Volume, transient and variable objects both at low and high redshift, and the properties of normal and active galaxies at low and high redshift. It then turns to far-field cosmological topics, exploring properties of supernovae to z~1, strong and weak lensing, the large-scale distribution of galaxies and baryon oscillations, and how these different probes may be combined to constrain cosmological models and the physics of dark energy.Comment: 596 pages. Also available at full resolution at http://www.lsst.org/lsst/sciboo

Safety, pharmacodynamics, and antiviral activity of selgantolimod in viremic patients with chronic hepatitis B virus infection

Background &amp; Aims: Novel finite therapies for chronic hepatitis B (CHB) are needed, since lifelong treatment is usually required with current available oral antivirals. This phase II study (NCT03615066) evaluated the safety, pharmacodynamics, and antiviral activity of selgantolimod (a Toll-like receptor 8 agonist [TLR8]) with tenofovir alafenamide (TAF). Methods: Viremic patients with CHB not receiving treatment were stratified by HBeAg status and randomized 2:2:1 to TAF 25 mg/day with selgantolimod 3 mg orally once weekly (QW), selgantolimod 1.5 mg QW, or placebo. Combination therapy continued until week (W)24, followed by TAF monotherapy until W48; patients then discontinued TAF and were followed until W96 (treatment-free follow-up [TFFU] period). The primary efficacy endpoint was the proportion with ≥1 log10 IU/ml HBsAg decline at W24. Results: Sixty-seven patients received study drug; 27 were followed during TFFU. Nausea, headache, vomiting, fatigue, and dizziness were the most common adverse events. Most adverse events were grade 1. Alanine aminotransferase flares were not observed up to W48. Four patients experienced alanine aminotransferase and hepatitis flares during TFFU; all had HBV DNA increases. Selgantolimod increased serum cytokines and chemokines and redistributed several circulating immune cell subsets. No patients achieved the primary efficacy endpoint. Mean HBsAg changes were −0.12, −0.16, and −0.12 log10 IU/ml in the selgantolimod 3 mg, selgantolimod 1.5 mg, and placebo groups, respectively, at W48; HBV DNA declined in all groups by ≥2 log10 IU/ml as early as W2, with all groups rebounding to baseline during TFFU. No HBsAg or HBeAg loss or seroconversion was observed throughout TFFU. Conclusions: Selgantolimod up to 3 mg was safe and well tolerated. Pharmacodynamics and antiviral activity in viremic patients support continued study of selgantolimod in combination CHB therapies. Impact and implications: Novel therapeutics for chronic HBV infection are needed to achieve a functional cure. In this study, we confirmed the safety and tolerability of selgantolimod (formerly GS-9688, a TLR8) when administered with tenofovir alafenamide over 24 weeks in viremic patients with chronic HBV infection. Overall, declines in HBsAg levels with selgantolimod treatment were modest; subgroup analysis indicated that patients with alanine aminotransferase levels greater than the upper limit of normal had significantly greater declines compared to those with normal alanine aminotransferase levels (–0.20 vs. –0.03 log10 IU/ml; p &lt;0.001). These findings suggest a potential differential response to selgantolimod based on patients’ baseline HBV-specific immune response, which should be considered in future investigations characterizing the underlying mechanisms of selgantolimod treatment and in HBV cure studies using similar immunomodulatory pathways. Clinical trial number: NCT03615066 be found at https://www.gileadclinicaltrials.com/transparency-policy/.</p

Safety, pharmacodynamics, and antiviral activity of selgantolimod in viremic patients with chronic hepatitis B virus infection

Background &amp; Aims: Novel finite therapies for chronic hepatitis B (CHB) are needed, since lifelong treatment is usually required with current available oral antivirals. This phase II study (NCT03615066) evaluated the safety, pharmacodynamics, and antiviral activity of selgantolimod (a Toll-like receptor 8 agonist [TLR8]) with tenofovir alafenamide (TAF). Methods: Viremic patients with CHB not receiving treatment were stratified by HBeAg status and randomized 2:2:1 to TAF 25 mg/day with selgantolimod 3 mg orally once weekly (QW), selgantolimod 1.5 mg QW, or placebo. Combination therapy continued until week (W)24, followed by TAF monotherapy until W48; patients then discontinued TAF and were followed until W96 (treatment-free follow-up [TFFU] period). The primary efficacy endpoint was the proportion with ≥1 log10 IU/ml HBsAg decline at W24. Results: Sixty-seven patients received study drug; 27 were followed during TFFU. Nausea, headache, vomiting, fatigue, and dizziness were the most common adverse events. Most adverse events were grade 1. Alanine aminotransferase flares were not observed up to W48. Four patients experienced alanine aminotransferase and hepatitis flares during TFFU; all had HBV DNA increases. Selgantolimod increased serum cytokines and chemokines and redistributed several circulating immune cell subsets. No patients achieved the primary efficacy endpoint. Mean HBsAg changes were −0.12, −0.16, and −0.12 log10 IU/ml in the selgantolimod 3 mg, selgantolimod 1.5 mg, and placebo groups, respectively, at W48; HBV DNA declined in all groups by ≥2 log10 IU/ml as early as W2, with all groups rebounding to baseline during TFFU. No HBsAg or HBeAg loss or seroconversion was observed throughout TFFU. Conclusions: Selgantolimod up to 3 mg was safe and well tolerated. Pharmacodynamics and antiviral activity in viremic patients support continued study of selgantolimod in combination CHB therapies. Impact and implications: Novel therapeutics for chronic HBV infection are needed to achieve a functional cure. In this study, we confirmed the safety and tolerability of selgantolimod (formerly GS-9688, a TLR8) when administered with tenofovir alafenamide over 24 weeks in viremic patients with chronic HBV infection. Overall, declines in HBsAg levels with selgantolimod treatment were modest; subgroup analysis indicated that patients with alanine aminotransferase levels greater than the upper limit of normal had significantly greater declines compared to those with normal alanine aminotransferase levels (–0.20 vs. –0.03 log10 IU/ml; p &lt;0.001). These findings suggest a potential differential response to selgantolimod based on patients’ baseline HBV-specific immune response, which should be considered in future investigations characterizing the underlying mechanisms of selgantolimod treatment and in HBV cure studies using similar immunomodulatory pathways. Clinical trial number: NCT03615066 be found at https://www.gileadclinicaltrials.com/transparency-policy/.</p

The Accuracy of Clinical Staging of Stage I-IIIa Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer : An Analysis Based on Individual Participant Data

BACKGROUND: Clinical staging of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) helps determine the prognosis and treatment of patients; few data exist on the accuracy of clinical staging and the impact on treatment and survival of patients. We assessed whether participant or trial characteristics were associated with clinical staging accuracy as well as impact on survival. METHODS: We used individual participant data from randomized controlled trials (RCTs), supplied for a meta-analysis of preoperative chemotherapy (+/- radiotherapy) vs surgery alone (+/- radiotherapy) in NSCLC. We assessed agreement between clinical TNM (cTNM) stage at randomization and pathologic TNM (pTNM) stage, for participants in the control group. RESULT: Results are based on 698 patients who received surgery alone (+/- radiotherapy) with data for cTNM and pTNM stage. Forty-six percent of cases were cTNM stage I, 23% were cTNM stage II, and 31% were cTNM stage IIIa. cTNM stage disagreed with pTNM stage in 48% of cases, with 34% clinically understaged and 14% clinically overstaged. Agreement was not associated with age (P = .12), sex (P = .62), histology (P = .82), staging method (P = .32), or year of randomization (P = .98). Poorer survival in understaged patients was explained by the underlying pTNM stage. Clinical staging failed to detect T4 disease in 10% of cases and misclassified nodal disease in 38%. CONCLUSION: This study demonstrates suboptimal agreement between clinical and pathologic staging. Discrepancies between clinical and pathologic T and N staging could have led to different treatment decisions in 10% and 38% of cases, respectively. There is therefore a need for further research into improving staging accuracy for patients with stage I-IIIa NSCLC.Peer reviewe

Bevacizumab for advanced cervical cancer: patient-reported outcomes of a randomised, phase 3 trial (NRG Oncology–Gynecologic Oncology Group protocol 240)

Background: GOG 240 was a practice-changing randomised phase 3 trial that concluded that chemotherapy plus bevacizumab for advanced cervical cancer significantly improves overall and progression-free survival, and the proportion of patients achieving an overall objective response, compared with chemotherapy alone. In this study, we aimed to analyse patient-reported outcomes in GOG 240. Methods: Eligible adult participants (aged ≥18 years) had primary stage IVB or recurrent or persistent carcinoma of the cervix with measurable disease and GOG performance status of 0-1. Participants were randomly assigned by web-based permuted block randomisation (block size 4) in a 1:1:1:1 ratio to the four treatment groups: cisplatin (50 mg/m2 intravenously on day 1 or 2 of the treatment cycle) and paclitaxel (135 mg/m2 intravenously over 24 h or 175 mg/m2 intravenously over 3 h on day 1), with or without bevacizumab (15 mg/kg intravenously on day 1 or 2), or paclitaxel (175 mg/m2 over 3 h on day 1) and topotecan (0·75 mg/m2 for 30 min on days 1-3) with or without bevacizumab (15 mg/kg intravenously on day 1). Treatment assignment was concealed at randomisation (everyone was masked to treatment assignment, achieved by the use of a computer encrypted numbering system at the National Cancer Institute) and became open-label when each patient was registered to the trial. Treatment cycles were repeated every 21 days until disease progression or unacceptable toxicity, whichever occurred first. The coprimary endpoints of the trial were overall survival and safety; the primary quality-of-life endpoint was the score on the Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy-Cervix Trial Outcome Index (FACT-Cx TOI). For our analysis of patient-reported outcomes, participants were assessed before treatment cycles 1, 2, and 5, and at 6 and 9 months after the start of cycle 1, with the FACT-Cx TOI, items from the FACT-GOG-Neurotoxicity subscale, and a worst pain item from the Brief Pain Inventory. All patients who completed baseline quality-of-life assessments and at least one further follow-up assessment were evaluable for quality-of-life outcomes. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00803062. Findings: Between April 6, 2009, and Jan 3, 2012, a total of 452 patients were enrolled in the trial, of whom 390 completed baseline quality-of-life assessment and at least one further assessment and were therefore evaluable for quality-of-life outcomes. In these patients, patient-reported outcome completion declined from 426 (94%) of 452 (at baseline) to 193 (63%) of 307 (9 months post-cycle 1), but completion rates did not differ significantly between treatment regimens (p=0·78). The baseline FACT-Cx TOI scores did not differ significantly between patients who received bevacizumab versus those who did not (p=0·27). Compared with patients who received chemotherapy alone, patients who received chemotherapy plus bevacizumab reported FACT-Cx TOI scores that were an average of 1·2 points lower (98·75% CI -4·1 to 1·7; p=0·30). Interpretation: Improvements in overall survival and progression-free survival attributed to the incorporation of bevacizumab into the treatment of advanced cervical cancer were not accompanied by any significant deterioration in health-related quality of life. Patients responding to anti-angiogenesis therapy who maintain an acceptable quality of life could be suitable at progression for treatment with other novel therapies that might confer additional benefit. Funding: National Institutes of Health