Assessing uncertainties in flood forecasts for decision making: prototype of an operational flood management system integrating ensemble predictions

Ensemble forecasts aim at framing the uncertainties of the potential future development of the hydro-meteorological situation. A probabilistic evaluation can be used to communicate forecast uncertainty to decision makers. Here an operational system for ensemble based flood forecasting is presented, which combines forecasts from the European COSMO-LEPS, SRNWP-PEPS and COSMO-DE prediction systems. A multi-model lagged average super-ensemble is generated by recombining members from different runs of these meteorological forecast systems. A subset of the super-ensemble is selected based on a priori model weights, which are obtained from ensemble calibration. Flood forecasts are simulated by the conceptual rainfall-runoff-model ArcEGMO. Parameter uncertainty of the model is represented by a parameter ensemble, which is a priori generated from a comprehensive uncertainty analysis during model calibration. The use of a computationally efficient hydrological model within a flood management system allows us to compute the hydro-meteorological model chain for all members of the sub-ensemble. The model chain is not re-computed before new ensemble forecasts are available, but the probabilistic assessment of the output is updated when new information from deterministic short range forecasts or from assimilation of measured data becomes available. For hydraulic modelling, with the desired result of a probabilistic inundation map with high spatial resolution, a replacement model can help to overcome computational limitations. A prototype of the developed framework has been applied for a case study in the Mulde river basin. However these techniques, in particular the probabilistic assessment and the derivation of decision rules are still in their infancy. Further research is necessary and promising

Beta decay of 71,73Co; probing single particle states approaching doubly magic 78Ni

Low-energy excited states in 71,73Ni populated via the {\beta} decay of 71,73Co were investigated in an experiment performed at the National Superconducting Cyclotron Laboratory (NSCL) at Michigan State University (MSU). Detailed analysis led to the construction of level schemes of 71,73Ni, which are interpreted using systematics and analyzed using shell model calculations. The 5/2- states attributed to the the f5/2 orbital and positive parity 5/2+ and 7/2+ states from the g9/2 orbital have been identified in both 71,73Ni. In 71Ni the location of a 1/2- {\beta}-decaying isomer is proposed and limits are suggested as to the location of the isomer in 73Ni. The location of positive parity cluster states are also identified in 71,73Ni. Beta-delayed neutron branching ratios obtained from this data are given for both 71,73Co.Comment: Accepted for publication in PR

\b{eta}-delayed three-proton decay of 31Ar

The beta decay of 31Ar, produced by fragmentation of a 36Ar beam at 880 MeV/nucleon, was investigated. Identified ions of 31Ar were stopped in a gaseous time projection chamber with optical readout allowing to record decay events with emission of protons. In addition to \b{eta}-delayed emission of one and two protons we have clearly observed the beta-delayed three-proton branch. The branching ratio for this channel in 31Ar is found to be 0.07(2)%.Comment: 5 pages, 3 figures, submitted to Physical Rev.

Discovery and Cross-Section Measurement of Neutron-Rich Isotopes in the Element Range from Neodymium to Platinum at the FRS

With a new detector setup and the high-resolution performance of the fragment separator FRS at GSI we discovered 57 new isotopes in the atomic number range of 60$\leq Z \leq 78$: \nuc{159-161}{Nb}, \nuc{160-163}{Pm}, \nuc{163-166}Sm, \nuc{167-168}{Eu}, \nuc{167-171}{Gd}, \nuc{169-171}{Tb}, \nuc{171-174}{Dy}, \nuc{173-176}{Ho}, \nuc{176-178}{Er}, \nuc{178-181}{Tm}, \nuc{183-185}{Yb}, \nuc{187-188}{Lu}, \nuc{191}{Hf}, \nuc{193-194}{Ta}, \nuc{196-197}{W}, \nuc{199-200}{Re}, \nuc{201-203}{Os}, \nuc{204-205}{Ir} and \nuc{206-209}{Pt}. The new isotopes have been unambiguously identified in reactions with a $^{238}$U beam impinging on a Be target at 1 GeV/u. The isotopic production cross-section for the new isotopes have been measured and compared with predictions of different model calculations. In general, the ABRABLA and COFRA models agree better than a factor of two with the new data, whereas the semiempirical EPAX model deviates much more. Projectile fragmentation is the dominant reaction creating the new isotopes, whereas fission contributes significantly only up to about the element holmium.Comment: 9 pages, 4 figure

On the discovery of doubly-magic 48^{48}Ni

The paper reports on the first observation of doubly-magic Nickel-48 in an experimental at the SISSI/LISE3 facility of GANIL. Four Nickel-48 isotopes were identified. In addition, roughly 100 Nickel-49, 50 Iron-45, and 290 Chromium-42 isotopes were observed. This opens the possibility to search for two-proton emission from these nuclei.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figures, accepted for publication in Phys. Rev. Let

Radioactive decays at limits of nuclear stability

The last decades brought an impressive progress in synthesizing and studying properties of nuclides located very far from the beta stability line. Among the most fundamental properties of such exotic nuclides, usually established first, is the half-life, possible radioactive decay modes, and their relative probabilities. When approaching limits of nuclear stability, new decay modes set in. First, beta decays become accompanied by emission of nucleons from highly excited states of daughter nuclei. Second, when the nucleon separation energy becomes negative, nucleons start to be emitted from the ground state. Here, we present a review of the decay modes occurring close to the limits of stability. The experimental methods used to produce, identify and detect new species and their radiation are discussed. The current theoretical understanding of these decay processes is overviewed. The theoretical description of the most recently discovered and most complex radioactive process - the two-proton radioactivity - is discussed in more detail.Comment: Review, 68 pages, 39 figure

Fission-Residues Produced in the Spallation Reaction 238U+p at 1 A GeV

Fission fragments from 1 A GeV 238U projectiles irradiating a hydrogen target were investigated by using the fragment separator FRS for magnetic selection of reaction products including ray-tracing and DE-ToF techniques. The momentum spectra of 733 identified fragments were analysed to provide isotopic production cross sections, fission-fragment velocities and recoil momenta of the fissioning parent nuclei. Besides their general relevance, these quantities are also demanded for applications. Calculations and simulations with codes commonly used and recently developed or improved are compared to the data.Comment: 60 pages, 21 figures, 4 tables, 2 appendices (15 pages

Evaporation residues produced in spallation of 208Pb by protons at 500A MeV

The production cross sections of fragmentation-evaporation residues in the reaction Pb+p at 500A MeV have been measured using the inverse-kinematics method and the FRS spectrometer (GSI). Fragments were identified in nuclear charge using ionisation chambers. The mass identification was performed event-by-event using the B-rho - TOF - Delta-E technique. Although partially-unresolved ionic charge states induced an ambiguity on the mass of some heavy fragments, production rates could be obtained with a high accuracy by systematically accounting for the polluting ionic charge states. The contribution of multiple reactions in the target was subtracted using a new, partly self-consistent code. The isobaric distributions are found to have a shape very close to the one observed in experiments at higher energy. Kinematic properties of the fragments were also measured. The total and the isotopic cross sections, including charge-pickup cross sections, are in good agreement with previous measurements. The data are discussed in the light of previous spallation measurements, especially on lead at 1 GeV