Initializing decadal climate predictions with the GECCO oceanic synthesis

This study aims at improving the forecast skill of climate predictions through the use of ocean synthesis data for initial conditions of a coupled climate model. For this purpose, the coupled model of the Max Planck Institute (MPI) for Meteorology, which consists of the atmosphere model ECHAM5 and the MPI Ocean Model (MPI-OM), is initialized with oceanic synthesis fields available from the German contribution to Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (GECCO) project. The use of an anomaly coupling scheme during the initialization avoids the main problems with drift in the climate predictions. Thus, the coupled model is continuously forced to follow the density anomalies of the GECCO synthesis over the period 1952-2001. Hindcast experiments are initialized from this experiment at constant intervals. The results show predictive skill through the initialization up to the decadal time scale, particularly over the North Atlantic. Viewed over the time scales analyzed here (annual, 5-yr, and 10-yr mean), greater skill for the North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) is obtained in the hindcast experiments than in either a damped persistence or trend forecast. The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation hindcast closely follows that of the GECCO oceanic synthesis. Hindcasts of global-mean temperature do not obtain greater skill than either damped persistence or a trend forecast, owing to the SST errors in the GECCO synthesis, outside the North Atlantic. An ensemble of forecast experiments is subsequently performed over the period 2002-11. North Atlantic SST from the forecast experiment agrees well with observations until the year 2007, and it is higher than if simulated without the oceanic initialization (averaged over the forecast period). The results confirm that both the initial and the boundary conditions must be accounted for in decadal climate predictions

Sea level changes mechanisms in the MPI-ESM under FAFMIP forcing conditions

Mechanistic causes for sea level (SL) change patterns are analyzed as they emerge from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) endorsed Flux-Anomaly-Forced Model Intercomparison Project (FAFMIP) coupled climate experiments imposing individual forcing anomalies in wind stress, heatflux and freshwater flux to the Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM). It appears that the heat flux perturbations have the largest effect on the sea level. In contrast, the direct impact of momentum and freshwater flux anomalies on SL anomalies appear to be limited to some region e.g. the Southern Ocean, Arctic Ocean and to some extent the North Pacific and North Atlantic Ocean. We find that thermosteric changes dominate the total SL change over large parts of the global ocean, except north of 60 °N where halosteric changes prevail. An analysis of added and redistributed components of heat and freshwater further suggests that the added component dominates the thermosteric SL and the redistributed component dominates the halosteric SL. Due to feedback processes a superposition of all forcing components together leads to the simulated sea level changes in each individual experiment. As a result, large surface heat flux anomalies over the Atlantic lead to wind stress change outside of the Atlantic through teleconnections, which in turn appear to be the primary driving agent for changes of sea level outside of the Atlantic in all three experiments. The associated wind driven Sverdrup stream function implicates that outside of the Atlantic most of the feedback can be explained by changes in the Sverdrup circulation

The Flux-Anomaly-Forced Model Intercomparison Project (FAFMIP) contribution to CMIP6: investigation of sea-level and ocean climate change in response to CO₂ forcing

The Flux-Anomaly-Forced Model Intercomparison Project (FAFMIP) aims to investigate the spread in simulations of sea-level and ocean climate change in response to CO2 forcing by atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs). It is particularly motivated by the uncertainties in projections of ocean heat uptake, global-mean sea-level rise due to thermal expansion and the geographical patterns of sea-level change due to ocean density and circulation change. FAFMIP has three tier-1 experiments, in which prescribed surface flux perturbations of momentum, heat and freshwater respectively are applied to the ocean in separate AOGCM simulations. All other conditions are as in the pre-industrial control. The prescribed fields are typical of pattern and magnitude of changes in these fluxes projected by AOGCMs for doubled CO2 concentration. Five groups have tested the experimental design with existing AOGCMs. Their results show diversity in the pattern and magnitude of changes, with some common qualitative features. Heat and water flux perturbation cause the dipole in sea-level change in the North Atlantic, while momentum and heat flux perturbation cause the gradient across the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) declines in response to the heat flux perturbation, and there is a strong positive feedback on this effect due to the consequent cooling of sea-surface temperature in the North Atlantic, which enhances the local heat input to the ocean. The momentum and water flux perturbations do not substantially affect the AMOC. Heat is taken up largely as a passive tracer in the Southern Ocean, which is the region of greatest heat input, while the weakening of the AMOC causes redistribution of heat towards lower latitudes. Future analysis of these and other phenomena with the wider range of CMIP6 FAFMIP AOGCMs will benefit from new diagnostics of temperature and salinity tendencies, which will enable investigation of the model spread in behaviour in terms of physical processes as formulated in the models

Testing variational estimation of process parameters and initial conditions of an earth system model

We present a variational assimilation system around a coarse resolution Earth System Model (ESM) and apply it for estimating initial conditions and parameters of the model. The system is based on derivative information that is efficiently provided by the ESM's adjoint, which has been generated through automatic differentiation of the model's source code. In our variational approach, the length of the feasible assimilation window is limited by the size of the domain in control space over which the approximation by the derivative is valid. This validity domain is reduced by non-smooth process representations. We show that in this respect the ocean component is less critical than the atmospheric component. We demonstrate how the feasible assimilation window can be extended to several weeks by modifying the implementation of specific process representations and by switching off processes such as precipitation

Research Progress Reports: Fruit and Vegetable Processing and Technology Division, Department of Horticulture [1967]

Evaluation of snap bean varieties for processing / Wilbur A. Gould and William Hildebolt -- Evaluation of various grape cultivars for processing. I. Table wines ; Recommended fruit varieties for canning and freezing / J. F. Gallander -- Evaluation of tomato varieties for processing / W. A. Gould, J. R. Geisman, C. S. Parrott, J. H. McClelland and W. N. Brown -- The effect of different levels of sugar and acid on the quality of apple fruit juice blends / James Gallander and Harold Stammer -- Epidermal sloughing of snap beans as influenced by processing variables / William Hildebolt and W. A. Gould -- Effect of stannous chloride on the color of glass packed kraut / J. R. Geisman -- Proteins and enzymes in the apple fruit in relation to variety and maturation ; Proteins and enzymes in tomato fruits / Robert L. Clements -- Effect of food additives on quality of canned tomatoes / Wilbur A. Gould -- Effects of selective herbicides on the composition and quality of tomatoes / W. A. Gould, J. R. Geisman, E. K. Alban and John Deppen -- Trace levels of pesticide residues in agricultural commodities in marketing channels / W. A. Gould, J. R. Geisman, E. K. Alban, John Deppen, and P. van Pottlesberghe -- Removal of DDT residues by unit operations in preparing and processing spinach / J. R. Geisman, John Deppen and Benita Yao -- The use of chlorine dioxide in handling and holding mechanically harvested tomatoes / J. R. Geisman, Winston D. Bash, Edwin Schmidt, Jr., Linda Hamrick and W. A. Gould -- Effect of mechanical harvesting and handling of tomatoes on quality of canned tomatoes / Wilbur A. Gould, J. R. Geisman, Edwin Schmidt, Jr., John McClelland and W. N. Brow

Processing and Technology of Fruits and Vegetables, 1960

Tomato Variety Evaluation for Processing, 1961 / W. A. Gould, J. R. Geisman and Wade Schulte -- Evaluation of Sweet Corn Varieties for Processing / J. R. Geisman and W. A. Gould -- Small Fruit Variety Evaluation Studies for Freezing / D. R. Davis and H. L. Stammer -- Evaluation of Apples for Processing. I. Fruit Juice Blends / D. R. Davis and H. L. Stammer -- Evaluation of Apples for Processing. II. Canned Apple Slices / D. R. Davis and H. L. Stammer -- Evaluation of Apples for Processing. III. Frozen Apple Slices / D. R. Davis and H. L. Stammer -- Evaluation of Apples for Processing. IV. Frozen Fruit Pies / D. R. Davis and H. L. Stammer -- A Study of Several Varieties of Pumpkin and Squash for Canning and Freezing for Use in Pies / Robert H. Clayton, J. R. Geisman and W. A. Gould -- Factors Effecting the Consistency of Cream Style Corn / D. R. Davis and W. A. Gould -- The Objective Measurement of Tomato Juice Consistency / Robert Kluter and W. A. Gould -- A Method for the Detection of Drosophila Fly Eggs and Larvae in Tomato Products / J. R. Geisman and Winston D. Bash -- A Chemical Study of Flavor and Flavor Substances in Tomatoes / John Hal Johnson and W. A. Gould -- Tannin Content Effects Grape Juice Quality / D. R. Davis and H. L. Stammer -- pH Survey for Tomatoes in Ohio / W. D. Bash -- Flavor Studies with Sauerkraut / J. R. Geisman, S. S. Verma and W. A. Gould -- The Effect of Fill Weight on Drained Weight of Canned Tomatoes / Wade A. Schulte and W. A. Gould -- A New Method for the Manufacture of Apple Sirup / M. P. Baldauf, D. R. Davis and H. L. Stammer -- Studies on Color Retention in Canned R.T.P. Cherries / D. R. Davis and H. L. Stammer -- Clumping Studies in Canned Blueberries / D. R. Davis and H. L. Stammer -- Infra-red Peeling Studies. I. Apples. / L. Lafferty and W. A. Gould -- Infra-red Peeling Studies. II. Tomatoes. / W. A. Gould, Richard Leiss and Donall Streets -- The Effect of Water Holding Times and Temperatures on Quality of Tomatoes / Richard Leiss, Ernest Anderson and W. A. Gould -- Quality Attributes of Sweet Potatoes - Glass Packed / Donald A. Giesser and W. A. Gould -- A Study of Some of the Factors Effecting the Efficiency of Washing of Fruits and Vegetables. I. Tomatoes / W. A. Gould and J. R. Geisman -- A Study of Some of the Factors Effecting the Efficiency of Washing of Fruits and Vegetables. II. Sweet Corn / J. R. Geisman and W. A. Gould -- A Study of Alpha-keto Acids, Amino Acids, and Citric Acid in Eight Tomato Varieties, and Their Changes During Processing / Mokhtar M. Hamdy and W. A. Goul

A High-End Estimate of Sea Level Rise for Practitioners

Sea level rise (SLR) is a long-lasting consequence of climate change because global anthropogenic warming takes centuries to millennia to equilibrate for the deep ocean and ice sheets. SLR projections based on climate models support policy analysis, risk assessment and adaptation planning today, despite their large uncertainties. The central range of the SLR distribution is estimated by process-based models. However, risk-averse practitioners often require information about plausible future conditions that lie in the tails of the SLR distribution, which are poorly defined by existing models. Here, a community effort combining scientists and practitioners builds on a framework of discussing physical evidence to quantify high-end global SLR for practitioners. The approach is complementary to the IPCC AR6 report and provides further physically plausible high-end scenarios. High-end estimates for the different SLR components are developed for two climate scenarios at two timescales. For global warming of +2°C in 2100 (RCP2.6/SSP1-2.6) relative to pre-industrial values our high-end global SLR estimates are up to 0.9 m in 2100 and 2.5 m in 2300. Similarly, for a (RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5), we estimate up to 1.6 m in 2100 and up to 10.4 m in 2300. The large and growing differences between the scenarios beyond 2100 emphasize the long-term benefits of mitigation. However, even a modest 2°C warming may cause multi-meter SLR on centennial time scales with profound consequences for coastal areas. Earlier high-end assessments focused on instability mechanisms in Antarctica, while here we emphasize the importance of the timing of ice shelf collapse around Antarctica. This is highly uncertain due to low understanding of the driving processes. Hence both process understanding and emission scenario control high-end SLR

Potential climatic transitions with profound impact on Europe

We discuss potential transitions of six climatic subsystems with large-scale impact on Europe, sometimes denoted as tipping elements. These are the ice sheets on Greenland and West Antarctica, the Atlantic thermohaline circulation, Arctic sea ice, Alpine glaciers and northern hemisphere stratospheric ozone. Each system is represented by co-authors actively publishing in the corresponding field. For each subsystem we summarize the mechanism of a potential transition in a warmer climate along with its impact on Europe and assess the likelihood for such a transition based on published scientific literature. As a summary, the ‘tipping’ potential for each system is provided as a function of global mean temperature increase which required some subjective interpretation of scientific facts by the authors and should be considered as a snapshot of our current understanding. <br/