Parameter Reduction in Log-normal Chain-ladder Models

Multiplicative chain-ladder (CL) models are characterized by CL factors that explain the development of claims from one period to the next. In classical CL models every development period has its own CL factor. In the present paper we give a method describing how some of these CL factors can be modeled by a joint functional dependence. This joint functional form reduces the number of model parameters needed

Identification of a new murine tumor necrosis factor receptor locus that contains two novel murine receptors for tumor necrosis factor-related apoptosis-inducing ligand (TRAIL).

Tumor necrosis factor (TNF) ligand and receptor superfamily members play critical roles in diverse developmental and pathological settings. In search for novel TNF superfamily members, we identified a murine chromosomal locus that contains three new TNF receptor-related genes. Sequence alignments suggest that the ligand binding regions of these murine TNF receptor homologues, mTNFRH1, -2 and -3, are most homologous to those of the tumor necrosis factor-related apoptosis-inducing ligand (TRAIL) receptors. By using a number of in vitro ligand-receptor binding assays, we demonstrate that mTNFRH1 and -2, but not mTNFRH3, bind murine TRAIL, suggesting that they are indeed TRAIL receptors. This notion is further supported by our demonstration that both mTNFRH1:Fc and mTNFRH2:Fc fusion proteins inhibited mTRAIL-induced apoptosis of Jurkat cells. Unlike the only other known murine TRAIL receptor mTRAILR2, however, neither mTNFRH2 nor mTNFRH3 has a cytoplasmic region containing the well characterized death domain motif. Coupled with our observation that overexpression of mTNFRH1 and -2 in 293T cells neither induces apoptosis nor triggers NFkappaB activation, we propose that the mTnfrh1 and mTnfrh2 genes encode the first described murine decoy receptors for TRAIL, and we renamed them mDcTrailr1 and -r2, respectively. Interestingly, the overall sequence structures of mDcTRAILR1 and -R2 are quite distinct from those of the known human decoy TRAIL receptors, suggesting that the presence of TRAIL decoy receptors represents a more recent evolutionary event

Basel II and fostering the disclosure of banks\' internal credit ratings

ISSN:1566-7529ISSN:1741-620

Dissolved noble gases and stable isotopes as tracers of preferential fluid flow along faults in the Lower Rhine Embayment, Germany

Groundwater in shallow unconsolidated sedimentary aquifers close to the Bornheim fault in the Lower Rhine Embayment (LRE), Germany, has relatively low δ2H and δ18O values in comparison to regional modern groundwater recharge, and 4He concentrations up to 1.7 × 10−4 cm3 (STP) g–1 ± 2.2 % which is approximately four orders of magnitude higher than expected due to solubility equilibrium with the atmosphere. Groundwater age dating based on estimated in situ production and terrigenic flux of helium provides a groundwater residence time of ∼107 years. Although fluid exchange between the deep basal aquifer system and the upper aquifer layers is generally impeded by confining clay layers and lignite, this study’s geochemical data suggest, for the first time, that deep circulating fluids penetrate shallow aquifers in the locality of fault zones, implying  that sub-vertical fluid flow occurs along faults in the LRE. However, large hydraulic-head gradients observed across many faults suggest that they act as barriers to lateral groundwater flow. Therefore, the geochemical data reported here also substantiate a conduit-barrier model of fault-zone hydrogeology in unconsolidated sedimentary deposits, as well as corroborating the concept that faults in unconsolidated aquifer systems can act as loci for hydraulic connectivity between deep and shallow aquifers. The implications of fluid flow along faults in sedimentary basins worldwide are far reaching and of particular concern for carbon capture and storage (CCS) programmes, impacts of deep shale gas recovery for shallow groundwater aquifers, and nuclear waste storage sites where fault zones could act as potential leakage pathways for hazardous fluids

The extraordinary evolutionary history of the reticuloendotheliosis viruses

The reticuloendotheliosis viruses (REVs) comprise several closely related amphotropic retroviruses isolated from birds. These viruses exhibit several highly unusual characteristics that have not so far been adequately explained, including their extremely close relationship to mammalian retroviruses, and their presence as endogenous sequences within the genomes of certain large DNA viruses. We present evidence for an iatrogenic origin of REVs that accounts for these phenomena. Firstly, we identify endogenous retroviral fossils in mammalian genomes that share a unique recombinant structure with REVs—unequivocally demonstrating that REVs derive directly from mammalian retroviruses. Secondly, through sequencing of archived REV isolates, we confirm that contaminated Plasmodium lophurae stocks have been the source of multiple REV outbreaks in experimentally infected birds. Finally, we show that both phylogenetic and historical evidence support a scenario wherein REVs originated as mammalian retroviruses that were accidentally introduced into avian hosts in the late 1930s, during experimental studies of P. lophurae, and subsequently integrated into the fowlpox virus (FWPV) and gallid herpesvirus type 2 (GHV-2) genomes, generating recombinant DNA viruses that now circulate in wild birds and poultry. Our findings provide a novel perspective on the origin and evolution of REV, and indicate that horizontal gene transfer between virus families can expand the impact of iatrogenic transmission events

Reconstruction of Lamb weather type series back to the eighteenth century

The Lamb weather type series is a subjective catalogue of daily atmospheric patterns and flow directions over the British Isles, covering the period 1861–1996. Based on synoptic maps, meteorologists have empirically classified surface pressure patterns over this area, which is a key area for the progression of Atlantic storm tracks towards Europe. We apply this classification to a set of daily pressure series from a few stations from western Europe, in order to reconstruct and to extend this daily weather type series back to 1781. We describe a statistical framework which provides, for each day, the weather types consistent enough with the observed pressure pattern, and their respective probability. Overall, this technique can correctly reconstruct almost 75% of the Lamb daily types, when simplified to the seven main weather types. The weather type series are described and compared to the original series for the winter season only. Since the low frequency variability of synoptic conditions is directly related to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), we derive from the weather type series an NAO index for winter. An interesting feature is a larger multidecadal variability during the nineteenth century than during the twentieth century

Nonrandom Distribution of Vector Ticks (Dermacentor variabilis) Infected by Francisella tularensis

The island of Martha's Vineyard, Massachusetts, is the site of a sustained outbreak of tularemia due to Francisella tularensis tularensis. Dog ticks, Dermacentor variabilis, appear to be critical in the perpetuation of the agent there. Tularemia has long been characterized as an agent of natural focality, stably persisting in characteristic sites of transmission, but this suggestion has never been rigorously tested. Accordingly, we sought to identify a natural focus of transmission of the agent of tularemia by mapping the distribution of PCR-positive ticks. From 2004 to 2007, questing D. variabilis were collected from 85 individual waypoints along a 1.5 km transect in a field site on Martha's Vineyard. The positions of PCR-positive ticks were then mapped using ArcGIS. Cluster analysis identified an area approximately 290 meters in diameter, 9 waypoints, that was significantly more likely to yield PCR-positive ticks (relative risk 3.3, P = 0.001) than the rest of the field site. Genotyping of F. tularensis using variable number tandem repeat (VNTR) analysis on PCR-positive ticks yielded 13 different haplotypes, the vast majority of which was one dominant haplotype. Positive ticks collected in the cluster were 3.4 times (relative risk = 3.4, P<0.0001) more likely to have an uncommon haplotype than those collected elsewhere from the transect. We conclude that we have identified a microfocus where the agent of tularemia stably perpetuates and that this area is where genetic diversity is generated

The discovery of endogenous retroviruses

When endogenous retroviruses (ERV) were discovered in the late 1960s, the Mendelian inheritance of retroviral genomes by their hosts was an entirely new concept. Indeed Howard M Temin's DNA provirus hypothesis enunciated in 1964 was not generally accepted, and reverse transcriptase was yet to be discovered. Nonetheless, the evidence that we accrued in the pre-molecular era has stood the test of time, and our hypothesis on ERV, which one reviewer described as 'impossible', proved to be correct. Here I recount some of the key observations in birds and mammals that led to the discovery of ERV, and comment on their evolution, cross-species dispersion, and what remains to be elucidated

Full-length human placental sFlt-1-e15a isoform induces distinct maternal phenotypes of preeclampsia in mice

<div><p>Objective</p><p>Most anti-angiogenic preeclampsia models in rodents utilized the overexpression of a truncated soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase-1 (sFlt-1) not expressed in any species. Other limitations of mouse preeclampsia models included stressful blood pressure measurements and the lack of postpartum monitoring. We aimed to 1) develop a mouse model of preeclampsia by administering the most abundant human placental sFlt-1 isoform (hsFlt-1-e15a) in preeclampsia; 2) determine blood pressures in non-stressed conditions; and 3) develop a survival surgery that enables the collection of fetuses and placentas and postpartum (PP) monitoring.</p><p>Methods</p><p>Pregnancy status of CD-1 mice was evaluated with high-frequency ultrasound on gestational days (GD) 6 and 7. Telemetry catheters were implanted in the carotid artery on GD7, and their positions were verified by ultrasound on GD13. Mice were injected through tail-vein with adenoviruses expressing hsFlt-1-e15a (n = 11) or green fluorescent protein (GFP; n = 9) on GD8/GD11. Placentas and pups were delivered by cesarean section on GD18 allowing PP monitoring. Urine samples were collected with cystocentesis on GD6/GD7, GD13, GD18, and PPD8, and albumin/creatinine ratios were determined. GFP and hsFlt-1-e15a expression profiles were determined by qRT-PCR. Aortic ring assays were performed to assess the effect of hsFlt-1-e15a on endothelia.</p><p>Results</p><p>Ultrasound predicted pregnancy on GD7 in 97% of cases. Cesarean section survival rate was 100%. Mean arterial blood pressure was higher in hsFlt-1-e15a-treated than in GFP-treated mice (∆MAP = 13.2 mmHg, p = 0.00107; GD18). Focal glomerular changes were found in hsFlt-1-e15a -treated mice, which had higher urine albumin/creatinine ratios than controls (109.3±51.7μg/mg vs. 19.3±5.6μg/mg, p = 4.4x10^-2; GD18). Aortic ring assays showed a 46% lesser microvessel outgrowth in hsFlt-1-e15a-treated than in GFP-treated mice (p = 1.2x10^-2). Placental and fetal weights did not differ between the groups. One mouse with liver disease developed early-onset preeclampsia-like symptoms with intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR).</p><p>Conclusions</p><p>A mouse model of late-onset preeclampsia was developed with the overexpression of hsFlt-1-e15a, verifying the <i>in vivo</i> pathologic effects of this primate-specific, predominant placental sFlt-1 isoform. HsFlt-1-e15a induced early-onset preeclampsia-like symptoms associated with IUGR in a mouse with a liver disease. Our findings support that hsFlt-1-e15a is central to the terminal pathway of preeclampsia, and it can induce the full spectrum of symptoms in this obstetrical syndrome.</p></div