Estimating the public health impact of disbanding a government alcohol monopoly: Application of new methods to the case of Sweden

Background: Government alcohol monopolies were created in North America and Scandinavia to limit health and social problems. The Swedish monopoly, Systembolaget, reports to a health ministry and controls the sale of all alcoholic beverages with > 3.5% alcohol/volume for off-premise consumption, within a public health mandate. Elsewhere, alcohol monopolies are being dismantled with evidence of increased consumption and harms. We describe innovative modelling techniques to estimate health outcomes in scenarios involving Systembolaget being replaced by 1) privately owned liquor stores, or 2) alcohol sales in grocery stores. The methods employed can be applied in other jurisdictions and for other policy changes. Methods: Impacts of the privatisation scenarios on pricing, outlet density, trading hours, advertising and marketing were estimated based on Swedish expert opinion and published evidence. Systematic reviews were conducted to estimate impacts on alcohol consumption in each scenario. Two methods were applied to estimate harm impacts: (i) alcohol attributable morbidity and mortality were estimated utilising the International Model of Alcohol Harms and Policies (InterMAHP); (ii) ARIMA methods to estimate the relationship between per capita alcohol consumption and specific types of alcohol-related mortality and crime. Results: Replacing government stores with private liquor stores (Scenario 1) led to a 20.0% (95% CI, 15.3-24.7) increase in per capita consumption. Replacement with grocery stores (Scenario 2) led to a 31.2% (25.1-37.3%) increase. With InterMAHP there were 763 or + 47% (35-59%) and 1234 or + 76% (60-92%) more deaths per year, for Scenarios 1 and 2 respectively. With ARIMA, there were 850 (334-1444) more deaths per year in Scenario 1 and 1418 more in Scenario 2 (543-2505). InterMAHP also estimated 10,859 or + 29% (22-34%) and 16,118 or + 42% (35-49%) additional hospital stays per year respectively. Conclusions: There would be substantial adverse consequences for public health and safety were Systembolaget to be privatised. We demonstrate a new combined approach for estimating the impact of alcohol policies on consumption and, using two alternative methods, alcohol-attributable harm. This approach could be readily adapted to other policies and settings. We note the limitation that some significant sources of uncertainty in the estimates of harm impacts were not modelled

Capturing systematically users' experience of evaluation tools for integrated AMU and AMR surveillance

Tackling antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a goal for many countries. Integrated surveillance of antimicrobial use (AMU) and resistance is a prerequisite for effective risk mitigation. Regular evaluation of any surveillance is needed to ensure its effectiveness and efficiency. The question is how to evaluate specifically integrated surveillance for AMU and AMR. In an international network called CoEvalAMR, we have developed guidelines for selection of the most appropriate tools for such an evaluation. Moreover, we have assessed different evaluation tools as examples using a country case format and a methodology with a focus on the user's experience. This paper describes the updated methodology, which consists of a brief introduction to the case and to the tool separately. Moreover, there are 12 functional aspects and nine content themes which should be scored using a 4-tiered scale. Additionally, four Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats (SWOT) questions should be addressed. Results are illustrated using radar diagrams. An example of application of the updated methodology is given using the ECoSur evaluation tool. No tool can cover all evaluation aspects comprehensively in a user-friendly manner, so the choice of tool must be based upon the specific evaluation purpose. Moreover, adequate resources, time and training are needed to obtain useful outputs from the evaluation. Our updated methodology can be used by tool users to share their experience with available tools, and hereby assist other users in identifying the most suited tool for their evaluation purpose. Additionally, tool developers can get valuable information for further improvements of their tool

Alcohol consumption and the physical availability of take-away alcohol: systematic reviews and meta-analyses of the days and hours of sale and outlet density.

OBJECTIVE: Systematic reviews and meta-analyses were completed studying the effect of changes in the physical availability of take-away alcohol on per capita alcohol consumption. Previous reviews examining this topic have not focused on off-premise outlets where take-away alcohol is sold and have not completed meta-analyses. METHOD: Systematic reviews were conducted separately for policies affecting the temporal availability (days and hours of sale) and spatial availability (outlet density) of take-away alcohol. Studies were included up to December 2015. Quality criteria were used to select articles that studied the effect of changes in these policies on alcohol consumption with a focus on natural experiments. Random-effects meta-analyses were applied to produce the estimated effect of an additional day of sale on total and beverage-specific consumption. RESULTS: Separate systematic reviews identified seven studies regarding days and hours of sale and four studies regarding density. The majority of articles included in these systematic reviews, for days/hours of sale (7/7) and outlet density (3/4), concluded that restricting the physical availability of take-away alcohol reduces per capita alcohol consumption. Meta-analyses studying the effect of adding one additional day of sale found that this was associated with per capita consumption increases of 3.4% (95% CI [2.7, 4.1]) for total alcohol, 5.3% (95% CI [3.2, 7.4]) for beer, 2.6% (95% CI [1.8, 3.5]) for wine, and 2.6% (95% CI [2.1, 3.2]) for spirits. The small number of included studies regarding hours of sale and density precluded meta-analysis. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study suggest that decreasing the physical availability of take-away alcohol will decrease per capita consumption. As decreasing per capita consumption has been shown to reduce alcohol-related harm, restricting the physical availability of take-away alcohol would be expected to result in improvements to public health

Association of herd BRSV and BHV-1 seroprevalence with respiratory disease and reproductive performance in adult dairy cattle

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The aim of this study was to detect the associations between bovine herpesvirus 1 (BHV-1) status of a herd and respiratory disease (BRD) occurrence and reproductive performance in pregnant heifers and cows. The association between management-related factors and higher BRD occurrence was also estimated.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Serum samples, collected from cows and youngstock from 103 dairy cattle herds, were analyzed for antibodies against BHV-1, bovine respiratory syncytial virus (BRSV), bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV), and <it>Mycoplasma bovis</it>. A questionnaire was used to collect data concerning herd management factors and reproductive performance, as well as the occurrence of clinical signs of respiratory disease in the last two years, as evaluated by the veterinarian or farm manager. Multiple correspondence analysis (MCA) and logistic regression analysis were performed to identify and quantify the risk factors.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A low to moderate prevalence (1-49%) of BRSV antibodies among youngstock was associated with a high occurrence of respiratory disease (OR = 6.2, p = 0.010) in cows and in-calf heifers. Employees of the farm may participate in the spread of such disease. Larger herd size, loose-housing of cows, housing youngstock separately from cows until pregnancy, and purchasing new animals were factors possibly related to a high occurrence of respiratory disease symptoms in pregnant heifers and cows. The highest risk of abortions (> 1.3%) and increased insemination index (number of inseminations per pregnancy) (> 1.9) occurred in herds with a moderate prevalence of BHV-1 antibodies (1-49%) in cows.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>BHV-1 was not associated with acute respiratory disease in adult dairy cattle, however was significantly related to reproductive performance. BRSV possesses the main role in respiratory disease complex in adult dairy cattle.</p

The impact of the Great Recession on mental health and its inequalities: the case of a Southern European region, 1997–2013

Background: Numerous studies have shown that macroeconomic changes have a great influence on health, prompting different concerns in recent literature about the effects of the current recession. The objetive of the study was to assess the changes in the mental health of the working-age population in the Basque Country (Spain) and its social inequalities following the onset of the 2008 recession, with special focus on the role of unemployment. Methods: Repeated cross-sectional study on the population aged 16-64, using four Basque Health Surveys (1997-2013). Age-adjusted prevalences of poor mental health and incremental prevalence ratios (working status and social class adjusted) between years were calculated. Absolute/relative measures of social inequalities were also calculated. Results: From 2008, there was a clear deterioration in the mental health, especially among men. Neither changes in employment status nor social class accounted for these changes. In men, the deterioration affected all working status categories, except the retired but significant changes occurred only among the employed. In women, poor mental health significantly increased among the unemployed. Students were also especially affected. Relative inequalities increased only in men. Conclusions: The Great Recession is being accompanied by adverse effects on mental health, which cannot be fully explained by the increase of unemployment. Public healtThis work was partially supported by the Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (State Programme for Promotion of Scientific and Technical Research Challenges (CSO2013-44886-R))

A Research Strategy Case Study of Alcohol and Drug Prevention by Non-Governmental Organizations in Sweden 2003-2009

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Alcohol and drug prevention is high on the public health agenda in many countries. An increasing trend is the call for evidence-based practice. In Sweden in 2002 an innovative project portfolio including an integrated research and competence-building strategy for non-governmental organisations (NGOs) was designed by the National Board of Health and Welfare (NBHW). This research strategy case study is based on this initiative.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The embedded case study includes 135 projects in 69 organisations and 14 in-depth process or effect studies. The data in the case study has been compiled using multiple methods - administrative data; interviews and questionnaires to project leaders; focus group discussions and seminars; direct and participatory observations, interviews, and documentation of implementation; consultations with the NBHW and the NGOs; and a literature review. Annual reports have been submitted each year and three bi-national conferences Reflections on preventions have been held.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A broad range of organisations have been included in the NBHW project portfolio. A minority of the project were run by Alcohol or drug organisations, while a majority has children or adolescents as target groups. In order to develop a trustful partnership between practitioners, national agencies and researchers a series of measures were developed and implemented: meeting with project leaders, project dialogues and consultations, competence strengthening, support to documentation, in-depth studies and national conferences. A common element was that the projects were program-driven and not research-driven interventions. The role of researchers-as-technical advisors was suitable for the fostering of a trustful partnership for research and development. The independence of the NGOs was regarded as important for the momentum in the project implementation. The research strategy also includes elements of participatory research.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>This research strategy case study shows that it is possible to integrate research into alcohol and drug prevention programs run by NGOs, and thereby contribute to a more evidence-based practice. A core element is developing a trustful partnership between the researchers and the organisations. Moreover, the funding agency must acknowledge the importance of knowledge development and allocating resources to research groups that is capable of cooperating with practitioners and NGOs.</p

Empirical Models of Transitions between Coral Reef States: Effects of Region, Protection, and Environmental Change

There has been substantial recent change in coral reef communities. To date, most analyses have focussed on static patterns or changes in single variables such as coral cover. However, little is known about how community-level changes occur at large spatial scales. Here, we develop Markov models of annual changes in coral and macroalgal cover in the Caribbean and Great Barrier Reef (GBR) regions

Tolerance of sponge assemblages to temperature anomalies: resilience and proliferation of sponges following the 1997-8 El-Niño southern oscillation.

Coral reefs across the world are under threat from a range of stressors, and while there has been considerable focus on the impacts of these stressors on corals, far less is known about their effect on other reef organisms. The 1997-8 El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) had notable and severe impacts on coral reefs worldwide, but not all reef organisms were negatively impacted by this large-scale event. Here we describe how the sponge fauna at Bahia, Brazil was influenced by the 1997-8 ENSO event. Sponge assemblages from three contrasting reef habitats (reef tops, walls and shallow banks) at four sites were assessed annually from 1995 to 2011. The within-habitat sponge diversity did not vary significantly across the study period; however, there was a significant increase in density in all habitats. Multivariate analyses revealed no significant difference in sponge assemblage composition (ANOSIM) between pre- and post-ENSO years for any of the habitats, suggesting that neither the 1997-8 nor any subsequent smaller ENSO events have had any measurable impact on the reef sponge assemblage. Importantly, this is in marked contrast to the results previously reported for a suite of other taxa (including corals, echinoderms, bryozoans, and ascidians), which all suffered mass mortalities as a result of the ENSO event. Our results suggest that of all reef taxa, sponges have the potential to be resilient to large-scale thermal stress events and we hypothesize that sponges might be less affected by projected increases in sea surface temperature compared to other major groups of reef organisms