Glacio-isostatic deformation around the Vatnajokull ice cap, Iceland, induced by recent climate warming: GPS observations and finite element modeling

Glaciers in Iceland began retreating around 1890, and since then the Vatnajökull ice cap has lost over 400 km3 of ice. The associated unloading of the crust induces a glacio‐isostatic response. From 1996 to 2004 a GPS network was measured around the southern edge of Vatnajökull. These measurements, together with more extended time series at several other GPS sites, indicate vertical velocities around the ice cap ranging from 9 to 25 mm/yr, and horizontal velocities in the range 3 to 4 mm/yr. The vertical velocities have been modeled using the finite element method (FEM) in order to constrain the viscosity structure beneath Vatnajökull. We use an axisymmetric Earth model with an elastic plate over a uniform viscoelastic half‐space. The observations are consistent with predictions based on an Earth model made up of an elastic plate with a thickness of 10–20 km and an underlying viscosity in the range 4–10 × 1018 Pa s. Knowledge of the Earth structure allows us to predict uplift around Vatnajökull in the next decades. According to our estimates of the rheological parameters, and assuming that ice thinning will continue at a similar rate during this century (about 4 km3/year), a minimum uplift of 2.5 meters between 2000 to 2100 is expected near the current ice cap edge. If the thinning rates were to double in response to global warming (about 8 km3/year), then the minimum uplift between 2000 to 2100 near the current ice cap edge is expected to be 3.7 meters

The effect of fluid compressibility and elastic rock properties on deformation of geothermal reservoirs

A geothermal reservoir deforms when the extraction of pore fluid exceeds reservoir recharge, causing a decrease in pore pressure. The magnitude of this deformation is related to the amount of pore fluid that is extracted. Assuming compressible material properties in a homogeneous reservoir, we derive an expression for the ratio of reservoir volume change per extracted fluid mass. We show that this ratio depends on a number of parameters, notably the compressibilities of reservoir rock and pore fluid. We apply the obtained relationship to three different geothermal areas (Hellisheidi, Reykjanes and The Geysers) to illustrate under which circumstances the relation between reservoir deformation and the amount of extracted fluid is able to help us learn more about reservoir conditions. We find that the fluid compressibility, depending on whether the system is single-phase or two-phase, may explain large differences in estimates of reservoir volume changes per mass of extracted flui

Risk of latent tuberculosis infection in children living in households with tuberculosis patients: a cross sectional survey in remote northern Lao People's Democratic Republic

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis is highly prevalent in Laos (289 per 100,000). We evaluated the risk of latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) among children (0-15 years) living with tuberculosis patients in rural northern Laos. METHODS: In a cross sectional survey of 30 randomly selected villages, 72 tuberculosis patients were traced and their 317 contacts (148 were children) investigated using a questionnaire, a tuberculin skin tests (positive: <= 10mm), a 3-day sputum examination for acid-fast bacilli (AFB), and chest radiography. RESULTS: None of the 148 contact-children received prophylaxis, one had cervical tuberculosis; the risk for LTBI was 31.0%. Awareness of the infectiousness of tuberculosis was low among patients (31%) and their contacts (31%), and risky behavior was common. After multivariate logistic analysis, increased LTBI was found in children with contact with sputum positive adults (OR: 3.3, 95% CI: 1.4-7.7), patients highly positive sputum prior to treatment (AFB <2+; OR: 4.7, 95% CI: 1.7-12.3), and living in ethnic minorities (OR: 5.4, 95% CI: 2.2-13.6). CONCLUSION: The study supports the importance of contact tracing in remote settings with high TB prevalence. Suggestions to improve the children's detection rate, the use of existing guidelines, chemoprophylaxis of contact-children and the available interventions in Laos are discussed. Improving education and awareness of the infectiousness of TB in patients is urgently needed to reduce TB transmissio

Survival and health status of DOTS tuberculosis patients in rural Lao PDR

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Contact tracing of tuberculosis (TB) patients is rarely performed in low-income countries. Our objective was to assess the outcome of and compliance with directly observed treatment (DOTS) of TB patients over a 3 year period in rural Lao PDR.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We performed a retrospective cohort study in which we enrolled TB patients who started DOTS treatment at Attapeu Provincial Hospital. We traced, through hospital records, all patients in their residential village. We conducted a standardized questionnaire with all TB patients and performed physical and anthropometric examinations as well as evaluations of compliance through counting of treatment pills at home and at the health facilities.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Of 172 enrolled TB patients (sex ratio female/male: 0.52, mean age: 46.9 years ± 16.9), 26 (15.1%) died. These had a lower weight at the start (34.6 <it>vs</it>. 40.8 kg, p < 0.001) and were less compliant (91.6% <it>vs</it>. 19.2%, p < 0.001) than survivors. Low compliance was associated with poor accessibility to health care (p = 0.01) and symptomatic improvement (p = 0.02). Survivors had persistently poor health status. They were underweight (54.7%), and still had clinical symptoms (53.5%), including dyspnoea (28.8%) and haemoptysis (9.5%).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Our study suggests a lower rate of survival than expected from official statistics. Additionally, it showed that follow-up of TB patients is feasible although the patients lived in very remote area of Laos. Follow-up should be strengthened as it can improve patient compliance, and allow contact tracing, detection of new cases and collection of accurate treatment outcome information.</p

Annual Risk of Tuberculous Infection Using Different Methods in Communities with a High Prevalence of TB and HIV in Zambia and South Africa

BACKGROUND: The annual risk of tuberculous infection (ARTI) is a key epidemiological indicator of the extent of transmission in a community. Several methods have been suggested to estimate the prevalence of tuberculous infection using tuberculin skin test data. This paper explores the implications of using different methods to estimate prevalence of infection and ARTI. The effect of BCG vaccination on these estimates is also investigated. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Tuberculin surveys among school children in 16 communities in Zambia and 8 in South Africa (SA) were performed in 2005, as part of baseline data collection and for randomisation purposes of the ZAMSTAR study. Infection prevalence and ARTI estimates were calculated using five methods: different cut-offs with or without adjustments for sensitivity, the mirror method, and mixture analysis. A total of 49,835 children were registered for the surveys, of which 25,048 (50%) had skin tests done and 22,563 (90%) of those tested were read. Infection prevalence was higher in the combined SA than Zambian communities. The mirror method resulted in the least difference of 7.8%, whereas that estimated by the cut-off methods varied from 12.2% to 17.3%. The ARTI in the Zambian and SA communities was between 0.8% and 2.8% and 2.5% and 4.2% respectively, depending on the method used. In the SA communities, the ARTI was higher among the younger children. BCG vaccination had little effect on these estimates. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: ARTI estimates are dependent on the calculation method used. All methods agreed that there were substantial differences in infection prevalence across the communities, with higher rates in SA. Although TB notification rates have increased over the past decades, the difference in cumulative exposure between younger and older children is less dramatic and a rise in risk of infection in parallel with the estimated incidence of active tuberculosis cannot be excluded

Dental erosive wear and salivary flow rate in physically active young adults

Background Little attention has been directed towards identifying the relationship between physical exercise, dental erosive wear and salivary secretion. The study aimed i) to describe the prevalence and severity of dental erosive wear among a group of physically active young adults, ii) to describe the patterns of dietary consumption and lifestyle among these individuals and iii) to study possible effect of exercise on salivary flow rate. Methods Young members (age range 18-32 years) of a fitness-centre were invited to participate in the study. Inclusion criteria were healthy young adults training hard at least twice a week. A non-exercising comparison group was selected from an ongoing study among 18-year-olds. Two hundred and twenty participants accepted an intraoral examination and completed a questionnaire. Seventy of the exercising participants provided saliva samples. The examination was performed at the fitness-centre or at a dental clinic (comparison group), using tested erosive wear system (VEDE). Saliva sampling (unstimulated and stimulated) was performed before and after exercise. Occlusal surfaces of the first molars in both jaws and the labial and palatal surfaces of the upper incisors and canines were selected as index teeth. Results Dental erosive wear was registered in 64% of the exercising participants, more often in the older age group, and in 20% of the comparison group. Enamel lesions were most observed in the upper central incisors (33%); dentine lesions in lower first molar (27%). One fourth of the participants had erosive wear into dentine, significantly more in males than in females (p = 0.047). More participants with erosive wear had decreased salivary flow during exercise compared with the non-erosion group (p < 0.01). The stimulated salivary flow rate was in the lower rage (≤ 1 ml/min) among more than one third of the participants, and more erosive lesions were registered than in subjects with higher flow rates (p < 0.01). Conclusion The study showed that a high proportion of physically active young adults have erosive lesions and indicate that hard exercise and decreased stimulated salivary flow rate may be associated with such wear

Analysis of latent tuberculosis and mycobacterium avium infection data using mixture models

BACKGROUND: Estimation of the frequency of latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) is difficult in areas with low tuberculosis infection rates and high exposure to non-tuberculous mycobacteria (NTM), including BCG vaccination. The objective was to assess LTBI and M avium infection and to estimate their probability based on skin tests responses in an infant population from a region with the aforementioned characteristics. METHODS: A population-based tuberculin skin test (TST) and sensitin (M avium) survey was conducted on seven years old infants in Biscay, a province from The Basque Country (Spain). 2268 schoolchildren received sensitin and 5277 TST. Participation rate was 89%. Commonly used estimation methods were compared with a method based on the fit of mixture models using the Expectation Maximization algorithm. Functions estimating the probabilities of LTBI and M avium infection given the observed skin tests responses were developed for vaccinated and unvaccinated children. RESULTS: LTBI prevalences varied widely according to the estimation method. The mixture model provided prevalences higher than expected although intermediates between those obtained by currently recommended approaches. Exposure to previous BCG vaccine produces an upward shift of an average of about 3 mm on the induration size to attain the same probability of infection. CONCLUSION: Our results confirm the commonplace exposure to NTM which effect should be taken into account when performing and assessing tuberculin surveys. The use of mixture analysis under the empirical Bayes framework allows to better estimate the probability of LTBI in settings with presence of other NTM and high BCG-vaccination coverage. An estimation of the average effect of BCG vaccination on TST induration is also provided. These models maximise information coming from classical tuberculin surveys and could be used together with the newly developed blood tests to improve survey's specificity and cost-effectiveness