Synchronisation of egg hatching of brown hairstreak (Thecla betulae) and budburst of blackthorn (Prunus spinosa) in a warmer future

Synchronisation of the phenology of insect herbivores and their larval food plant is essential for the herbivores’ fitness. The monophagous brown hairstreak (Thecla betulae) lays its eggs during summer, hibernates as an egg, and hatches in April or May in the Netherlands. Its main larval food plant blackthorn (Prunus spinosa) flowers in early spring, just before the leaves appear. As soon as the Blackthorn opens its buds, and this varies with spring temperatures, food becomes available for the brown hairstreak. However, the suitability of the leaves as food for the young caterpillars is expected to decrease rapidly. Therefore, the timing of egg hatch is an important factor for larval growth. This study evaluates food availability for brown hairstreak at different temperatures. Egg hatch and budburst were monitored from 2004 to 2008 at different sites in the Netherlands. Results showed ample food availability at all monitored temperatures and sites but the degree of synchrony varied strongly with spring temperatures. To further study the effect of temperature on synchronisation, an experiment using normal temperatures of a reference year (T) and temperatures of T + 5°C was carried out in climate chambers. At T + 5°C, both budburst and egg hatch took place about 20 days earlier and thus, on average, elevated temperature did not affect synchrony. However, the total period of budburst was 11 days longer, whereas the period of egg hatching was 3 days shorter. The implications for larval growth by the brown hairstreak under a warmer climate are considered.

Invasion speeds for structured populations in fluctuating environments

We live in a time where climate models predict future increases in environmental variability and biological invasions are becoming increasingly frequent. A key to developing effective responses to biological invasions in increasingly variable environments will be estimates of their rates of spatial spread and the associated uncertainty of these estimates. Using stochastic, stage-structured, integro-difference equation models, we show analytically that invasion speeds are asymptotically normally distributed with a variance that decreases in time. We apply our methods to a simple juvenile-adult model with stochastic variation in reproduction and an illustrative example with published data for the perennial herb, \emph{Calathea ovandensis}. These examples buttressed by additional analysis reveal that increased variability in vital rates simultaneously slow down invasions yet generate greater uncertainty about rates of spatial spread. Moreover, while temporal autocorrelations in vital rates inflate variability in invasion speeds, the effect of these autocorrelations on the average invasion speed can be positive or negative depending on life history traits and how well vital rates ``remember'' the past

Global data for ecology and epidemiology: a novel algorithm for temporal Fourier processing MODIS data

Background. Remotely-sensed environmental data from earth-orbiting satellites are increasingly used to model the distribution and abundance of both plant and animal species, especially those of economic or conservation importance. Time series of data from the MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensors on-board NASA's Terra and Aqua satellites offer the potential to capture environmental thermal and vegetation seasonality, through temporal Fourier analysis, more accurately than was previously possible using the NOAA Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) sensor data. MODIS data are composited over 8- or 16-day time intervals that pose unique problems for temporal Fourier analysis. Applying standard techniques to MODIS data can introduce errors of up to 30% in the estimation of the amplitudes and phases of the Fourier harmonics. Methodology/Principal Findings. We present a novel spline-based algorithm that overcomes the processing problems of composited MODIS data. The algorithm is tested on artificial data generated using randomly selected values of both amplitudes and phases, and provides an accurate estimate of the input variables under all conditions. The algorithm was then applied to produce layers that capture the seasonality in MODIS data for the period from 2001 to 2005. Conclusions/Significance. Global temporal Fourier processed images of 1 km MODIS data for Middle Infrared Reflectance, day- and night-time Land Surface Temperature (LST), Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) are presented for ecological and epidemiological applications. The finer spatial and temporal resolution, combined with the greater geolocational and spectral accuracy of the MODIS instruments, compared with previous multi-temporal data sets, mean that these data may be used with greater confidence in species' distribution modelling

Evolutionary winners are ecological losers among oceanic island plants

Aim Adaptive radiation, in which successful lineages proliferate by exploiting untapped niche space, provides a popular but potentially misleading characterization of evolution on oceanic islands. Here we analyse the respective roles of members of in situ diversified vs. non-diversified lineages in shaping the main ecosystems of an archipelago to explore the relationship between evolutionary and ecological ‘success’. Location Canary Islands. Taxon Vascular plants. Methods We quantified the abundance/rarity of the native flora according to the geographical range (number of islands where present and geographical extent of the range), habitat breadth (climatic niche) and local abundance (cover) using species distribution data based on 500 × 500 m grid cells and 2000 vegetation inventories located all over the archipelago. Results Species of diversified lineages have significantly smaller geographic ranges, narrower climatic niches and lower local abundances than those of non-diversified lineages. Species rarity increased with the degree of diversification. The diversified Canarian flora is mainly comprised by shrubs. At both archipelagic and island level, the four core ecosystems (Euphorbia scrub, thermophilous woodlands, laurel forest and pine forest) were dominated by non-diversified lineages species, with diversified lineages species providing <25% cover. Species of diversified lineages, although constituting 54% of the archipelagic native flora, were only abundant in two rare ecosystems: high mountain scrub and rock communities. Main conclusions Radiated species, endemic products of in situ speciation, are mostly rare in all three rarity axes and typically do not play an important role in structuring plant communities on the Canaries. The vegetation of the major ecosystem types is dominated by plants representing non-diversified lineages (species that derive from immigration and accumulation), while species of evolutionarily successful lineages are abundant only in marginal habitats and could, therefore, be considered ecological losers. Within this particular oceanic archipelago, and we posit within at least some others, evolutionary success in plants is accomplished predominantly at the margins.publishedVersio

Standardized Assessment of Biodiversity Trends in Tropical Forest Protected Areas: The End Is Not in Sight

Extinction rates in the Anthropocene are three orders of magnitude higher than background and disproportionately occur in the tropics, home of half the world’s species. Despite global efforts to combat tropical species extinctions, lack of high-quality, objective information on tropical biodiversity has hampered quantitative evaluation of conservation strategies. In particular, the scarcity of population-level monitoring in tropical forests has stymied assessment of biodiversity outcomes, such as the status and trends of animal populations in protected areas. Here, we evaluate occupancy trends for 511 populations of terrestrial mammals and birds, representing 244 species from 15 tropical forest protected areas on three continents. For the first time to our knowledge, we use annual surveys from tropical forests worldwide that employ a standardized camera trapping protocol, and we compute data analytics that correct for imperfect detection. We found that occupancy declined in 22%, increased in 17%, and exhibited no change in 22% of populations during the last 3–8 years, while 39% of populations were detected too infrequently to assess occupancy changes. Despite extensive variability in occupancy trends, these 15 tropical protected areas have not exhibited systematic declines in biodiversity (i.e., occupancy, richness, or evenness) at the community level. Our results differ from reports of widespread biodiversity declines based on aggregated secondary data and expert opinion and suggest less extreme deterioration in tropical forest protected areas. We simultaneously fill an important conservation data gap and demonstrate the value of large-scale monitoring infrastructure and powerful analytics, which can be scaled to incorporate additional sites, ecosystems, and monitoring methods. In an era of catastrophic biodiversity loss, robust indicators produced from standardized monitoring infrastructure are critical to accurately assess population outcomes and identify conservation strategies that can avert biodiversity collapse. © 2016 Beaudrot et al