How many independent bets are there?

The benefits of portfolio diversification is a central tenet implicit to modern financial theory and practice. Linked to diversification is the notion of breadth. Breadth is correctly thought of as the number of in- dependent bets available to an investor. Conventionally applications us- ing breadth frequently assume only the number of separate bets. There may be a large discrepancy between these two interpretations. We uti- lize a simple singular-value decomposition (SVD) and the Keiser-Gutman stopping criterion to select the integer-valued effective dimensionality of the correlation matrix of returns. In an emerging market such as South African we document an estimated breadth that is considerably lower than anticipated. This lack of diversification may be because of market concentration, exposure to the global commodity cycle and local currency volatility. We discuss some practical extensions to a more statistically correct interpretation of market breadth, and its theoretical implications for both global and domestic investors.Comment: Less technical rewrite. 12 Pages, 6 Figures (.eps

Quantifying the impact of climate change on drought regimes using the Standardised Precipitation Index

The study presents a methodology to characterise short- or long-term drought events, designed to aid understanding of how climate change may affect future risk. An indicator of drought magnitude, combining parameters of duration, spatial extent and intensity, is presented based on the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI). The SPI is applied to observed (1955–2003) and projected (2003–2050) precipitation data from the Community Integrated Assessment System (CIAS). Potential consequences of climate change on drought regimes in Australia, Brazil, China, Ethiopia, India, Spain, Portugal and the USA are quantified. Uncertainty is assessed by emulating a range of global circulation models to project climate change. Further uncertainty is addressed through the use of a high-emission scenario and a low stabilisation scenario representing a stringent mitigation policy. Climate change was shown to have a larger effect on the duration and magnitude of long-term droughts, and Australia, Brazil, Spain, Portugal and the USA were highlighted as being particularly vulnerable to multi-year drought events, with the potential for drought magnitude to exceed historical experience. The study highlights the characteristics of drought which may be more sensitive under climate change. For example, on average, short-term droughts in the USA do not become more intense but are projected to increase in duration. Importantly, the stringent mitigation scenario had limited effect on drought regimes in the first half of the twenty-first century, showing that adaptation to drought risk will be vital in these regions

Understanding the impact of droughts in the Yarmouk Basin, Jordan: monitoring droughts through meteorological and hydrological drought indices

This article assesses drought status in the Yarmouk Basin (YB), in northern Jordan, using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), the Standardized Water-Level Index (SWI), and the Percent Departure from Normal rainfall (PDNimd) during the years 1993–2014. The results showed that the YB suffers from frequent and irregular periods of drought as variations in drought intensity and frequency have been observed. The SPI results revealed that the highest drought magnitude of − 2.34 appeared at Nuaimeh rainfall station in 1991. This station has also experienced severe drought particularly in years 1995, 1999, 2005, and 2012 with SPI values ranging from − 1.51 to − 1.59. Some other rainfall stations such as Baqura, Ibbin, Khanasiri, Kharja, Mafraq police, Ramtha, Turra, and Umm Qais have also suffered several periods of drought mostly in 1993. The SWI results show the highest extreme drought events in 2001 in Souf well while other extreme drought periods were observed at Wadi Elyabis well in 1994 and at Mafraq well in 1995. As compared to SPI maps, our SWI maps reflect severe and extreme drought events in most years, negatively impacting the groundwater levels in the study area

Internal construct validity of the Warwick-Edinburgh Mental Well-being Scale (WEMWBS): a Rasch analysis using data from the Scottish Health Education Population Survey

Background: The Warwick-Edinburgh Mental Well-Being Scale (WEMWBS) was developed to meet demand for instruments to measure mental well-being. It comprises 14 positively phrased Likert-style items and fulfils classic criteria for scale development. We report here the internal construct validity of WEMWBS from the perspective of the Rasch measurement model. Methods: The model was applied to data collected from 779 respondents in Wave 12 (Autumn 2006) of the Scottish Health Education Population Survey. Respondents were aged 16–74 (average 41.9) yrs. Results: Initial fit to model expectations was poor. The items 'I've been feeling good about myself', 'I've been interested in new things' and 'I've been feeling cheerful' all showed significant misfit to model expectations, and were deleted. This led to a marginal improvement in fit to the model. After further analysis, more items were deleted and a strict unidimensional seven item scale (the Short Warwick Edinburgh Mental Well-Being Scale (SWEMWBS)) was resolved. Many items deleted because of misfit with model expectations showed considerable bias for gender. Two retained items also demonstrated bias for gender but, at the scale level, cancelled out. One further retained item 'I've been feeling optimistic about the future' showed bias for age. The correlation between the 14 item and 7 item versions was 0.954. Given fit to the Rasch model, and strict unidimensionality, SWEMWBS provides an interval scale estimate of mental well-being. Conclusion: A short 7 item version of WEMWBS was found to satisfy the strict unidimensionality expectations of the Rasch model, and be largely free of bias. This scale, SWEMWBS, provides a raw score-interval scale transformation for use in parametric procedures. In terms of face validity, SWEMWBS presents a more restricted view of mental well-being than the 14 item WEMWBS, with most items representing aspects of psychological and eudemonic well-being, and few covering hedonic well-being or affect. However, robust measurement properties combined with brevity make SWEMWBS preferable to WEMWBS at present for monitoring mental well-being in populations. Where face validity is an issue there remain arguments for continuing to collect data on the full 14 item WEMWBS

The Spectrin Cytoskeleton Is Crucial for Adherent and Invasive Bacterial Pathogenesis

Various enteric bacterial pathogens target the host cell cytoskeletal machinery as a crucial event in their pathogenesis. Despite thorough studies detailing strategies microbes use to exploit these components of the host cell, the role of the spectrin-based cytoskeleton has been largely overlooked. Here we show that the spectrin cytoskeleton is a host system that is hijacked by adherent (Entropathogenic Escherichia coli [EPEC]), invasive triggering (Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium [S. Typhimurium]) and invasive zippering (Listeria monocytogenes) bacteria. We demonstrate that spectrin cytoskeletal proteins are recruited to EPEC pedestals, S. Typhimurium membrane ruffles and Salmonella containing vacuoles (SCVs), as well as sites of invasion and comet tail initiation by L. monocytogenes. Spectrin was often seen co-localizing with actin filaments at the cell periphery, however a disconnect between the actin and spectrin cytoskeletons was also observed. During infections with S. Typhimurium ΔsipA, actin-rich membrane ruffles at characteristic sites of bacterial invasion often occurred in the absence of spectrin cytoskeletal proteins. Additionally, early in the formation of L. monocytogenes comet tails, spectrin cytoskeletal elements were recruited to the surface of the internalized bacteria independent of actin filaments. Further studies revealed the presence of the spectrin cytoskeleton during SCV and Listeria comet tail formation, highlighting novel cytoplasmic roles for the spectrin cytoskeleton. SiRNA targeted against spectrin and the spectrin-associated proteins severely diminished EPEC pedestal formation as well as S. Typhimurium and L. monocytogenes invasion. Ultimately, these findings identify the spectrin cytoskeleton as a ubiquitous target of enteric bacterial pathogens and indicate that this cytoskeletal system is critical for these infections to progress

Consequences of converting graded to action potentials upon neural information coding and energy efficiency

Information is encoded in neural circuits using both graded and action potentials, converting between them within single neurons and successive processing layers. This conversion is accompanied by information loss and a drop in energy efficiency. We investigate the biophysical causes of this loss of information and efficiency by comparing spiking neuron models, containing stochastic voltage-gated Na+ and K+ channels, with generator potential and graded potential models lacking voltage-gated Na+ channels. We identify three causes of information loss in the generator potential that are the by-product of action potential generation: (1) the voltage-gated Na+ channels necessary for action potential generation increase intrinsic noise and (2) introduce non-linearities, and (3) the finite duration of the action potential creates a ‘footprint’ in the generator potential that obscures incoming signals. These three processes reduce information rates by ~50% in generator potentials, to ~3 times that of spike trains. Both generator potentials and graded potentials consume almost an order of magnitude less energy per second than spike trains. Because of the lower information rates of generator potentials they are substantially less energy efficient than graded potentials. However, both are an order of magnitude more efficient than spike trains due to the higher energy costs and low information content of spikes, emphasizing that there is a two-fold cost of converting analogue to digital; information loss and cost inflation

The Adolescent Depression Rating Scale (ADRS): a validation study

BACKGROUND: To examine the psychometric properties of the Adolescent Depression Rating Scale (ADRS), a new measure was specifically designed to evaluate adolescent depression. METHODS: The 11-item clinician-report and 44-item self-report versions of the ADRS were developed from a qualitative phase involving interviews of experts and adolescents. These two instruments were then administered to 402 French speaking adolescents with and without depressive disorders. Item distribution, internal consistency, convergent validity, discriminant validity and factorial structure were assessed. RESULTS: After reduction procedures, a 10-item clinician version and a 10-item self-report version were obtained. The ADRS demonstrated good internal consistency (alpha Cronbach coefficient >.70). It also discriminated better between adolescents with and without depression than the Hamilton Depressive Rating Scale and the Beck Depression Inventory (BDI-13). CONCLUSION: The ADRS is a useful, short, clinician-report and self-report scale to evaluate adolescent depression. Further studies to replicate our findings and evaluate ADRS sensitivity to effects of treatment and psychometric properties in populations of adolescents with several psychiatric disorders are warranted

A search for the decay modes B+/- to h+/- tau l

We present a search for the lepton flavor violating decay modes B+/- to h+/- tau l (h= K,pi; l= e,mu) using the BaBar data sample, which corresponds to 472 million BBbar pairs. The search uses events where one B meson is fully reconstructed in one of several hadronic final states. Using the momenta of the reconstructed B, h, and l candidates, we are able to fully determine the tau four-momentum. The resulting tau candidate mass is our main discriminant against combinatorial background. We see no evidence for B+/- to h+/- tau l decays and set a 90% confidence level upper limit on each branching fraction at the level of a few times 10^-5.Comment: 15 pages, 7 figures, submitted to Phys. Rev.