Statistical diagnostic and correction of a chemistry-transport model for the prediction of total column ozone

International audienceIn this paper, we introduce a statistical method for examining and adjusting chemical-transport models. We illustrate the findings with total column ozone predictions, based on the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign 2-D (UIUC 2-D) chemical-transport model of the global atmosphere. We propose a general diagnostic procedure for the model outputs in total ozone over the latitudes ranging from 60° South to 60° North to see if the model captures some typical patterns in the data. The method proceeds in two steps to avoid possible collinearity issues. First, we regress the measurements given by a cohesive data set from the SBUV(/2) satellite system on the model outputs with an autoregressive noise component. Second, we regress the residuals of this first regression on the solar flux, the annual cycle, the Antarctic or Arctic Oscillation, and the Quasi Biennial Oscillation. If the coefficients from this second regression are statistically significant, then they mean that the model did not simulate properly the pattern associated with these factors. Systematic anomalies of the model are identified using data from 1979 to 1995, and statistically corrected afterwards. The 1996?2003 validation sample confirms that the combined approach yields better predictions than the direct UIUC 2-D outputs

C16 ceramide is crucial for triacylglycerol-induced apoptosis in macrophages

Triacylglycerol (TG) accumulation caused by adipose triglyceride lipase (ATGL) deficiency or very low-density lipoprotein (VLDL) loading of wild-type (Wt) macrophages results in mitochondrial-mediated apoptosis. This phenotype is correlated to depletion of Ca2+ from the endoplasmic reticulum (ER), an event known to induce the unfolded protein response (UPR). Here, we show that ER stress in TG-rich macrophages activates the UPR, resulting in increased abundance of the chaperone GRP78/BiP, the induction of pancreatic ER kinase-like ER kinase, phosphorylation and activation of eukaryotic translation initiation factor 2A, the translocation of activating transcription factor (ATF)4 and ATF6 to the nucleus and the induction of the cell death executor CCAAT/enhancer-binding protein homologous protein. C16:0 ceramide concentrations were increased in Atgl–/– and VLDL-loaded Wt macrophages. Overexpression of ceramide synthases was sufficient to induce mitochondrial apoptosis in Wt macrophages. In accordance, inhibition of ceramide synthases in Atgl–/– macrophages by fumonisin B1 (FB1) resulted in specific inhibition of C16:0 ceramide, whereas intracellular TG concentrations remained high. Although the UPR was still activated in Atgl–/– macrophages, FB1 treatment rescued Atgl–/– macrophages from mitochondrial dysfunction and programmed cell death. We conclude that C16:0 ceramide elicits apoptosis in Atgl–/– macrophages by activation of the mitochondrial apoptosis pathway

Impact of long-range correlations on trend detection in total ozone

Total ozone trends are typically studied using linear regression models that assume a first-order autoregression of the residuals [so-called AR(1) models]. We consider total ozone time series over 60°S–60°N from 1979 to 2005 and show that most latitude bands exhibit long-range correlated (LRC) behavior, meaning that ozone autocorrelation functions decay by a power law rather than exponentially as in AR(1). At such latitudes the uncertainties of total ozone trends are greater than those obtained from AR(1) models and the expected time required to detect ozone recovery correspondingly longer. We find no evidence of LRC behavior in southern middle-and high-subpolar latitudes (45°–60°S), where the long-term ozone decline attributable to anthropogenic chlorine is the greatest. We thus confirm an earlier prediction based on an AR(1) analysis that this region (especially the highest latitudes, and especially the South Atlantic) is the optimal location for the detection of ozone recovery, with a statistically significant ozone increase attributable to chlorine likely to be detectable by the end of the next decade. In northern middle and high latitudes, on the other hand, there is clear evidence of LRC behavior. This increases the uncertainties on the long-term trend attributable to anthropogenic chlorine by about a factor of 1.5 and lengthens the expected time to detect ozone recovery by a similar amount (from ∼2030 to ∼2045). If the long-term changes in ozone are instead fit by a piecewise-linear trend rather than by stratospheric chlorine loading, then the strong decrease of northern middle- and high-latitude ozone during the first half of the 1990s and its subsequent increase in the second half of the 1990s projects more strongly on the trend and makes a smaller contribution to the noise. This both increases the trend and weakens the LRC behavior at these latitudes, to the extent that ozone recovery (according to this model, and in the sense of a statistically significant ozone increase) is already on the verge of being detected. The implications of this rather controversial interpretation are discussed

Estimation and Simulation of Autoregressive Hilbertian Processes with Exogenous Variables

autoregressive processes, exogenous variables, functional data, forecasting, simulation, ARHX,

A new minimum trees-based approach for shape matching with improved time computing : application to graphical symbols recognition

International audienc