Preventing type 2 diabetes mellitus in Qatar by reducing obesity, smoking, and physical inactivity: mathematical modeling analyses.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to estimate the impact of reducing the prevalence of obesity, smoking, and physical inactivity, and introducing physical activity as an explicit intervention, on the burden of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), using Qatar as an example. METHODS: A population-level mathematical model was adapted and expanded. The model was stratified by sex, age group, risk factor status, T2DM status, and intervention status, and parameterized by nationally representative data. Modeled interventions were introduced in 2016, reached targeted level by 2031, and then maintained up to 2050. Diverse intervention scenarios were assessed and compared with a counter-factual no intervention baseline scenario. RESULTS: T2DM prevalence increased from 16.7% in 2016 to 24.0% in 2050 in the baseline scenario. By 2050, through halting the rise or reducing obesity prevalence by 10-50%, T2DM prevalence was reduced by 7.8-33.7%, incidence by 8.4-38.9%, and related deaths by 2.1-13.2%. For smoking, through halting the rise or reducing smoking prevalence by 10-50%, T2DM prevalence was reduced by 0.5-2.8%, incidence by 0.5-3.2%, and related deaths by 0.1-0.7%. For physical inactivity, through halting the rise or reducing physical inactivity prevalence by 10-50%, T2DM prevalence was reduced by 0.5-6.9%, incidence by 0.5-7.9%, and related deaths by 0.2-2.8%. Introduction of physical activity with varying intensity at 25% coverage reduced T2DM prevalence by 3.3-9.2%, incidence by 4.2-11.5%, and related deaths by 1.9-5.2%. CONCLUSIONS: Major reductions in T2DM incidence could be accomplished by reducing obesity, while modest reductions could be accomplished by reducing smoking and physical inactivity, or by introducing physical activity as an intervention

Adiposity has differing associations with incident coronary heart disease and mortality in the Scottish population: cross-sectional surveys with follow-up

Objective: Investigation of the association of excess adiposity with three different outcomes: all-cause mortality, coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality and incident CHD. Design: Cross-sectional surveys linked to hospital admissions and death records. Subjects: 19 329 adults (aged 18–86 years) from a representative sample of the Scottish population. Measurements: Gender-stratified Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for all-cause mortality, CHD mortality and incident CHD. Separate models incorporating the anthropometric measurements body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC) or waist–hip ratio (WHR) were created adjusted for age, year of survey, smoking status and alcohol consumption. Results: For both genders, BMI-defined obesity (greater than or equal to30 kg m−2) was not associated with either an increased risk of all-cause mortality or CHD mortality. However, there was an increased risk of incident CHD among the obese men (hazard ratio (HR)=1.78; 95% confidence interval=1.37–2.31) and obese women (HR=1.93; 95% confidence interval=1.44–2.59). There was a similar pattern for WC with regard to the three outcomes; for incident CHD, the HR=1.70 (1.35–2.14) for men and 1.71 (1.28–2.29) for women in the highest WC category (men greater than or equal to102 cm, women greater than or equal to88 cm), synonymous with abdominal obesity. For men, the highest category of WHR (greater than or equal to1.0) was associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality (1.29; 1.04–1.60) and incident CHD (1.55; 1.19–2.01). Among women with a high WHR (greater than or equal to0.85) there was an increased risk of all outcomes: all-cause mortality (1.56; 1.26–1.94), CHD mortality (2.49; 1.36–4.56) and incident CHD (1.76; 1.31–2.38). Conclusions: In this study excess adiposity was associated with an increased risk of incident CHD but not necessarily death. One possibility is that modern medical intervention has contributed to improved survival of first CHD events. The future health burden of increased obesity levels may manifest as an increase in the prevalence of individuals living with CHD and its consequences

Obesity and Respiratory Hospitalizations During Influenza Seasons in Ontario, Canada: A Cohort Study

Evidence from the 2009 H1N1 pandemic suggests that severe obesity was a risk factor for serious complications from influenza infection. Our study identifies severe obesity as a risk factor for respiratory hospitalizations during seasonal influenza epidemics

Fault diagnosis and comparing risk for the steel coil manufacturing process using statistical models for binary data

[EN] Advanced statistical models can help industry to design more economical and rational investment plans. Fault detection and diagnosis is an important problem in continuous hot dip galvanizing. Increasingly stringent quality requirements in the automotive industry also require ongoing efforts in process control to make processes more robust. Robust methods for estimating the quality of galvanized steel coils are an important tool for the comprehensive monitoring of the performance of the manufacturing process. This study applies different statistical regression models: generalized linear models, generalized additive models and classification trees to estimate the quality of galvanized steel coils on the basis of short time histories. The data, consisting of 48 galvanized steel coils, was divided into sets of conforming and nonconforming coils. Five variables were selected for monitoring the process: steel strip velocity and four bath temperatures. The present paper reports a comparative evaluation of statistical models for binary data using Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves. A ROC curve is a graph or a technique for visualizing, organizing and selecting classifiers based on their performance. The purpose of this paper is to examine their use in research to obtain the best model to predict defective steel coil probability. In relation to the work of other authors who only propose goodness of fit statistics, we should highlight one distinctive feature of the methodology presented here, which is the possibility of comparing the different models with ROC graphs which are based on model classification performance. Finally, the results are validated by bootstrap procedures.The authors are indebted to the anonymous referees whose suggestions improved the original manuscript. This work was supported by a grant from PAID-06-08 (Programa de Apoyo a la Investigacion y Desarrollo) of the Universitat Politecnica de Valencia.Debón Aucejo, AM.; García-Díaz, JC. (2012). Fault diagnosis and comparing risk for the steel coil manufacturing process using statistical models for binary data. Reliability Engineering and System Safety. 100:102-114. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2011.12.022S10211410

Forecasting the burden of type 2 diabetes mellitus in Qatar to 2050: A novel modeling approach.

AIMS: We developed and demonstrated a novel mathematical modeling approach to forecast the burden of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and to investigate T2DM epidemiology for the purpose of informing public health policy and programming. METHODS: A population-level compartmental mathematical model was constructed and applied to Qatar. The model was stratified according to sex, age group, risk factor status, and T2DM status, and was parameterized by nationally-representative data. RESULTS: T2DM prevalence increased from 16.7% in 2012 to at least 24.0% by 2050. The rise in T2DM was most prominent among 45-54 years old. T2DM health expenditure was estimated to increase by 200-600% and to account for up to 32% of total health expenditure by 2050. Prevalence of obesity, smoking, and physical inactivity was predicted to increase from 41.4% to 51.0%, from 16.4% to 19.4%, and from 45.9% to 53.0%, respectively. The proportion of T2DM incidence attributed to obesity, smoking and physical inactivity was estimated at 57.5%, 1.8%, and 5.4%, respectively in 2012, and 65.7%, 2.1%, and 6.0%, respectively in 2050. Exploring different scenarios for the trends in risk factors, T2DM prevalence reached up to 37.7% by 2050. CONCLUSIONS: Using our innovative approach, a rising T2DM epidemic is predicted to continue in the next decades, driven by population growth, ageing and adverse trends in risk factors. Obesity was the principal risk factor explaining two-thirds of T2DM incidence. T2DM must be a national priority addressed by preventive and therapeutic interventions targeting T2DM and its modifiable risk factors

The UK Pharmacy Care Plan service: Description, recruitment and initial views on a new community pharmacy intervention

Introduction: The UK government advocates person-centred healthcare which is ideal for supporting patients to make appropriate lifestyle choices and to address non-adherence. The Community Pharmacy Future group, a collaboration between community pharmacy companies and independents in the UK, introduced a person-centred service for patients with multiple long-term conditions in 50 pharmacies in Northern England. Objective: Describe the initial findings from the set up and delivery of a novel community pharmacy-based person-centred service. Method: Patients over fifty years of age prescribed more than one medicine including at least one for cardiovascular disease or diabetes were enrolled. Medication review and person-centred consultation resulted in agreed health goals and steps towards achieving them. Data were collated and analysed to determine appropriateness of patient recruitment process and quality of outcome data collection. A focus group of seven pharmacists was used to ascertain initial views on the service. Results: Within 3 months of service initiation, 683 patients had baseline clinical data recorded, of which 86.9% were overweight or obese, 53.7% had hypertension and 80.8% had high cardiovascular risk. 544 (77.2%) patients set at least one goal during the first consultation with 120 (22.1%) setting multiple goals. A majority of patients identified their goals as improvement in condition, activity or quality of life. Pharmacists could see the potential patient benefit and the extended role opportunities the service provided. Allowing patients to set their own goals occasionally identified gaps to be addressed in pharmacist knowledge. Conclusion: Pharmacists successfully recruited a large number of patients who were appropriate for such a service. Patients were willing to identify goals with the pharmacist, the majority of which, if met, may result in improvements in quality of life. While challenges in delivery were acknowledged, allowing patients to identify their own personalised goals was seen as a positive approach to providing patient services

Using PCR-Based Detection and Genotyping to Trace Streptococcus salivarius Meningitis Outbreak Strain to Oral Flora of Radiology Physician Assistant

We recently investigated three cases of bacterial meningitis that were reported from a midwestern radiology clinic where facemasks were not worn during spinal injection of contrast agent during myelography procedures. Using pulsed field gel electrophoresis we linked a case strain of S. salivarius to an oral specimen of a radiology physician assistant (RPA). We also used a real-time PCR assay to detect S. salivarius DNA within a culture-negative cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) specimen. Here we extend this investigation through using a nested PCR/sequencing strategy to link the culture-negative CSF specimen to the case strain. We also provide validation of the real-time PCR assay used, demonstrating that it is not solely specific for Streptococcus salivarius, but is also highly sensitive for detection of the closely related oral species Streptococcus vestibularis. Through using multilocus sequence typing and 16S rDNA sequencing we further strengthen the link between the CSF case isolate and the RPA carriage isolate. We also demonstrate that the newly characterized strains from this study are distinct from previously characterized S. salivarius strains associated with carriage and meningitis

Healthy obesity and risk of accelerated functional decline and disability

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Some obese adults have a normal metabolic profile and are considered 'healthy', but whether they experience faster ageing than healthy normal-weight adults is unknown. We compared decline in physical function, worsening of bodily pain, and likelihood of future mobility limitation and disability between these groups. SUBJECTS/METHODS: This was a population-based observational study using repeated measures over 2 decades (Whitehall II cohort data). Normal-weight (body mass index (BMI) 18.5-24.9 kg/m(2)), overweight (25.0-29.9 kg/m(2)), and obese (⩾30.0 kg/m(2)) adults were considered metabolically healthy if they had 0 or 1 of 5 risk factors (hypertension, low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, high triacylglycerol, high blood glucose, and insulin resistance) in 1991/94. Decline in physical function and worsening of bodily pain based on change in Short Form Health Survey items using 8 repeated measures over 18.8 years (1991/94-2012/13) was compared between metabolic-BMI groups using linear mixed models. Odds of mobility limitation based on objective walking speed (slowest tertile) and of disability based on limitations in ⩾1 of 6 basic activities of daily living, each using 3 repeated measures over 8.3 years (2002/04-2012/13), were compared using logistic mixed models. RESULTS: In multivariable-adjusted mixed models on up to 6635 adults (initial mean age 50 years; 70% male), healthy normal-weight adults experienced a decline in physical function of -3.68 (95% CI=-4.19, -3.16) score units per decade; healthy obese adults showed an additional -3.48 (-4.88, -2.08) units decline. Healthy normal-weight adults experienced a -0.49 (-0.12, 1.11) score unit worsening of bodily pain per decade; healthy obese adults had an additional -2.23 (-0.69, -3.78) units worsening. Healthy obesity versus healthy normal-weight conferred 3.39 (2.29, 5.02) times higher odds of mobility limitation and 3.75 (1.94, 7.24) times higher odds of disability. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that obesity, even if metabolically healthy, accelerates age-related declines in functional ability and poses a threat to independence in older age.International Journal of Obesity accepted article preview online, 21 February 2017. doi:10.1038/ijo.2017.51