State Reunion Maintainability for Semi-Markov Models

In previous research the importance of both Markov and semi-Markov models in manpower planning is highlighted. Maintainability of population structures for different types of personnel strategies (i.e. under control by promotion and control by recruitment) were extensively investigated for various types of Markov models (homogeneous as well as non-homogeneous). Semi-Markov models are extensions of Markov models that account for duration of stay in the states. Less attention is paid to the study of maintainability for semi-Markov models. Although, some interesting maintainability results were obtained for non-homogeneous semi-Markov models. The current paper focuses on discrete-time homogeneous semi-Markov models, and explores the concept of maintainable population structures in this setting. In particular, a new concept of maintainability is introduced, the so-called State Reunion maintainability. It is shown that this concept of maintainability is closely related to maintainability for non-homogeneous Markov chains

Predicting employee absenteeism for cost effective interventions

This paper describes a decision support system designed for a Belgian Human Resource (HR) and Well-Being Service Provider. Their goal is to improve health and well-being in the workplace, and to this end, the task is to identify groups of employees at risk of sickness absence who can then be targeted with interventions aiming to reduce or prevent absences. To facilitate deployment, we apply a range of existing machine-learning methods to obtain predictions at monthly intervals using real HR and payroll data that contains no health-related predictors. We model employee absence as a binary classification problem with loss asymmetry and conceptualise a misclassification cost matrix of employee sickness absence. Model performance is evaluated using cost-based metrics, which have intuitive interpretation. We also demonstrate how this problem can be approached when costs are unknown. The proposed flexible evaluation procedure is not restricted to a specific model or domain and can be applied to address other HR analytics questions when deployed. Our approach of considering a wider range of methods and cost-based performance evaluation is novel in the domain of absenteeism prediction.publishedVersio

Grazing, nutrients, and marine benthic algae : insights into the drivers and protection of diversity

Two of the most powerful ways in which humans have altered ecosystems are by increasing productivity and changing the densities of important consumers. The bottom-up effects of productivity and the top-down effects of consumers have been identified as primary determinants of biological diversity, though the links between them remain unclear. Understanding how consumers and productivity act and interact to yield differences in diversity is of both conceptual and pragmatic importance. Here, I describe three experiments designed to examine the links between grazing, productivity, and diversity in rocky intertidal systems in Oregon and New Zealand. In two experiments I used fully-factorial designs in which I manipulated both grazing and nutrients. Both experiments revealed the primary importance of grazing as a structuring force of algal assemblages. In the Oregon experiment, I also document an interaction between grazing and productivity, with nutrient enrichment decreasing algal diversity at low grazer densities and increasing algal diversity at high grazer densities. This interaction was not apparent in the New Zealand experiment. In the absence of grazers, nutrient addition led to increased abundance of foliose algae at this site but had no net effect on algal diversity. In the third experiment, also conducted in New Zealand, I used natural variation in nearshore productivity as a backdrop against which I manipulated the access of grazers. In this experiment, I found that grazers had negative impacts on benthic algal diversity and abundance at sites with lower productivity and negligible impacts on benthic algal assemblages at sites with higher productivity. Overall these three studies suggest that in these intertidal grazer-dominated communities, the strong top-down effects often documented in such systems can be modified by more subtle bottom-up effects. Together, results from these experiments elucidate factors that determine algal diversity in these systems and underscore the importance of the evolutionary context in which experiments are conducted. Finally, I conclude with a synthesis of the literature in which I put these and other findings to work by exploring the ways in which basic marine ecological research can inform the management of human activities that affect the marine environment

Notes from the field: Lessons learned from using ecosystem service approaches to inform real-world decisions

While there have been rapid advances in assessments of biodiversity and ecosystem services (BES), a critical remaining challenge is how to move from scientific knowledge to real-world decision making. We offer 6 lessons from our experiences applying new approaches and tools for quantifying BES in 20 pilot demonstrations: (1) Applying a BES approach is most effective in leading to policy change as part of an iterative science-policy process; (2) simple ecological production function models have been useful in a diverse set of decision contexts, across a broad range of biophysical, social, and governance systems. Key limitations of simple models arise at very small scales, and in predicting specific future BES values; (3) training local experts in the approaches and tools is important for building local capacity, ownership, trust, and long-term success; (4) decision makers and stakeholders prefer to use a variety of BES value metrics, not only monetary values; (5) an important science gap exists in linking changes in BES to changes in livelihoods, health, cultural values, and other metrics of human wellbeing; and (6) communicating uncertainty in useful and transparent ways remains challenging

Embedding the value of coastal ecosystem services into climate change adaptation planning

Coastal habitats, such as salt marshes and dune systems, can protect communities from hazards by reducing coastline exposure. However, these critical habitats and their diverse ecosystem services are threatened by coastal development and the impacts from a changing climate. Ever increasing pressure on coastal habitats calls for coastal climate adaptation efforts that mitigate or adapt to these pressures in ways that maintain the integrity of coastal landscapes. An important challenge for decisionmakers is determining the best mitigation and adaptation strategies that not only protect human lives and property, but also safeguard the ability of coastal habitats to provide a broad suite of benefits. Here, we present a potential pathway for local-scale climate change adaptation planning through the identification and mapping of natural habitats that provide the greatest benefits to coastal communities. The methodology coupled a coastal vulnerability model with a climate adaptation policy assessment in an effort to identify priority locations for nature-based solutions that reduce vulnerability of critical assets using feasible land-use policy methods. Our results demonstrate the critical role of natural habitats in providing the ecosystem service of coastal protection in California. We found that specific dune habitats play a key role in reducing erosion and inundation of the coastline and that several wetland areas help to absorb energy from storms and provide a protective service for the coast of Marin county, California, USA. Climate change and adaptation planning are globally relevant issues in which the scalability and transferability of solutions must be considered. This work outlines an iterative approach for climate adaptation planning at a local-scale, with opportunity to consider the scalability of an iterative science-policy engagement approach to regional, national, and international levels

Integrated modeling framework to quantify the coastal protection services supplied by vegetation

Vegetation can protect communities by reducing nearshore wave height and altering sediment transport processes. However, quantitative approaches for evaluating the coastal protection services, or benefits, supplied by vegetation to people in a wide range of coastal environments are lacking. To begin to fill this knowledge gap, we propose an integrated modeling approach for quantifying how vegetation modifies nearshore processes—including the attenuation of wave height, mean and total water level—and reduces shoreline erosion during storms. We apply the model to idealized seagrass-sand and mangrove-mud cases, and illustrate its potential by quantifying how those habitats reduce water levels and sediment loss beyond what would be observed in the absence of vegetation. The integrated modeling approach provides an efficient way to quantify the coastal protection services supplied by vegetation and highlights specific research needs for improved representations of the ways in which vegetation modifies wave-induced processes.Keywords: coastal vegetation, wave setup and runup, coastal erosion, mud bed scou

Sialylation of campylobacter jejuni lipo-oligosaccharides: impact on phagocytosis and cytokine production in mice

<p>Background: Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) is a post-infectious polyradiculoneuropathy, frequently associated with antecedent Campylobacter jejuni (C. jejuni) infection. The presence of sialic acid on C. jejuni lipo-oligosaccharide (LOS) is considered a risk factor for development of GBS as it crucially determines the structural homology between LOS and gangliosides, explaining the induction of cross-reactive neurotoxic antibodies. Sialylated C. jejuni are recognised by TLR4 and sialoadhesin; however, the functional implications of these interactions in vivo are unknown.</p> <p>Methodology/Principal Findings: In this study we investigated the effects of bacterial sialylation on phagocytosis and cytokine secretion by mouse myeloid cells in vitro and in vivo. Using fluorescently labelled GM1a/GD1a ganglioside-mimicking C. jejuni strains and corresponding (Cst-II-mutant) control strains lacking sialic acid, we show that sialylated C. jejuni was more efficiently phagocytosed in vitro by BM-MΦ, but not by BM-DC. In addition, LOS sialylation increased the production of IL-10, IL-6 and IFN-β by both BM-MΦ and BM-DC. Subsequent in vivo experiments revealed that sialylation augmented the deposition of fluorescent bacteria in splenic DC, but not macrophages. In addition, sialylation significantly amplified the production of type I interferons, which was independent of pDC.</p> <p>Conclusions/Significance: These results identify novel immune stimulatory effects of C. jejuni sialylation, which may be important in inducing cross-reactive humoral responses that cause GBS</p&gt

Natural capital informing decisions: from promise to practice

This is the accepted manuscript of a paper that will be published in PNAS. It is currently under an infinite embargo.The central challenge of the 21st century is to develop economic, social, and governance systems capable of ending poverty and achieving sustainable levels of population and consumption while securing the life-support systems underpinning current and future human well-being. Essential to meeting this challenge is the incorporation of natural capital and the ecosystem services it provides into decision-making. Here, we explore progress and crucial gaps at this frontier, reflecting upon the 10 years since the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. We focus on three key dimensions of progress and ongoing challenges: raising awareness of the interdependence of ecosystems and human well-being; advancing the fundamental, interdisciplinary science of ecosystem services; and implementing this science in decisions to restore natural capital and use it sustainably. Awareness of human dependence on nature is at an all-time high, the science of ecosystem services is rapidly advancing, and talk of natural capital is now common from governments to corporate boardrooms. However, successful implementation is still in early stages. We explore why ecosystem service information has yet to fundamentally change decision-making and suggest a path forward that emphasizes: 1) developing solid evidence linking decisions to impacts on natural capital and ecosystem services, and then to human well-being, 2) working closely with leaders in government, business, and civil society to develop the knowledge, tools, and practices necessary to integrate natural capital and ecosystem services into everyday decision-making; and 3) reforming institutions to change policy and practices to better align private short-term goals with societal long-term goals.http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.150375111

Genetic diversity in Campylobacter jejuni is associated with differential colonization of broiler chickens and C57BL/6J IL10-deficient mice

Previous studies have demonstrated that Campylobacter jejuni, the leading causative agent of bacterial food-borne disease in the USA, exhibits high-frequency genetic variation that is associated with changes in cell-surface antigens and ability to colonize chickens. To expand our understanding of the role of genetic diversity in the disease process, we analysed the ability of three C. jejuni human disease isolates (strains 11168, 33292 and 81-176) and genetically marked derivatives to colonize Ross 308 broilers and C57BL/6J IL10-deficient mice. C. jejuni colonized broilers at much higher efficiency (all three strains, 23 of 24 broilers) than mice (11168 only, 8 of 24 mice). C. jejuni 11168 genetically marked strains colonized mice at very low efficiency (2 of 42 mice); however, C. jejuni reisolated from mice colonized both mice and broilers at high efficiency, suggesting that this pathogen can adapt genetically in the mouse. We compared the genome composition in the three wild-type C. jejuni strains and derivatives by microarray DNA/DNA hybridization analysis; the data demonstrated a high degree of genetic diversity in three gene clusters associated with synthesis and modification of the cell-surface structures capsule, flagella and lipo-oligosaccharide. Finally, we analysed the frequency of mutation in homopolymeric tracts associated with the contingency genes wlaN (GC tract) and flgR (AT tracts) in culture and after passage through broilers and mice. C. jejuni adapted genetically in culture at high frequency and the degree of genetic diversity was increased by passage through broilers but was nearly eliminated in the gastrointestinal tract of mice. The data suggest that the broiler gastrointestinal tract provides an environment which promotes outgrowth and genetic variation in C. jejuni; the enhancement of genetic diversity at this location may contribute to its importance as a human disease reservoir