Can we Agree? On the Rash\=omon Effect and the Reliability of Post-Hoc Explainable AI

The Rash\=omon effect poses challenges for deriving reliable knowledge from machine learning models. This study examined the influence of sample size on explanations from models in a Rash\=omon set using SHAP. Experiments on 5 public datasets showed that explanations gradually converged as the sample size increased. Explanations from <128 samples exhibited high variability, limiting reliable knowledge extraction. However, agreement between models improved with more data, allowing for consensus. Bagging ensembles often had higher agreement. The results provide guidance on sufficient data to trust explanations. Variability at low samples suggests that conclusions may be unreliable without validation. Further work is needed with more model types, data domains, and explanation methods. Testing convergence in neural networks and with model-specific explanation methods would be impactful. The approaches explored here point towards principled techniques for eliciting knowledge from ambiguous models.Comment: 13 pages, 6 figures and 6 table

Brainomics: Harnessing the CubicWeb semantic framework to manage large neuromaging genetics shared resources

National audienceIn neurosciences or psychiatry, large mul-ticentric population studies are being acquired and the corresponding data are made available to the acquisition partners or the scientific community. The massive, heterogeneous and complex data from genetics, imaging , demographics or scores rely on ontologies for their definition, sharing and access. These data must be efficiently queriable by the end user and the database operator. We present the tools based on the CubicWeb open-source framework that serve the data of the european projects IMAGEN and EU-AIMS

The empirical replicability of task-based fMRI as a function of sample size

Replicating results (i.e. obtaining consistent results using a new independent dataset) is an essential part of good science. As replicability has consequences for theories derived from empirical studies, it is of utmost importance to better understand the underlying mechanisms influencing it. A popular tool for non-invasive neuroimaging studies is functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). While the effect of underpowered studies is well documented, the empirical assessment of the interplay between sample size and replicability of results for task-based fMRI studies remains limited. In this work, we extend existing work on this assessment in two ways. Firstly, we use a large database of 1400 subjects performing four types of tasks from the IMAGEN project to subsample a series of independent samples of increasing size. Secondly, replicability is evaluated using a multi-dimensional framework consisting of 3 different measures: (un)conditional test-retest reliability, coherence and stability. We demonstrate not only a positive effect of sample size, but also a trade-off between spatial resolution and replicability. When replicability is assessed voxelwise or when observing small areas of activation, a larger sample size than typically used in fMRI is required to replicate results. On the other hand, when focussing on clusters of voxels, we observe a higher replicability. In addition, we observe variability in the size of clusters of activation between experimental paradigms or contrasts of parameter estimates within these

The relationship between negative life events and cortical structural connectivity in adolescents

Adolescence is a crucial period for physical and psychological development. The impact of negative life events represents a risk factor for the onset of neuropsychiatric disorders. This study aims to investigate the relationship between negative life events and structural brain connectivity, considering both graph theory and connectivity strength. A group (n = 487) of adolescents from the IMAGEN Consortium was divided into Low and High Stress groups. Brain networks were extracted at an individual level, based on morphological similarity between grey matter regions with regions defined using an atlas-based region of interest (ROI) approach. Between-group comparisons were performed with global and local graph theory measures in a range of sparsity levels. The analysis was also performed in a larger sample of adolescents (n = 976) to examine linear correlations between stress level and network measures. Connectivity strength differences were investigated with network-based statistics. Negative life events were not found to be a factor influencing global network measures at any sparsity level. At local network level, between-group differences were found in centrality measures of the left somato-motor network (a decrease of betweenness centrality was seen at sparsity 5%), of the bilateral central visual and the left dorsal attention network (increase of degree at sparsity 10% at sparsity 30% respectively). Network-based statistics analysis showed an increase in connectivity strength in the High stress group in edges connecting the dorsal attention, limbic and salience networks. This study suggests negative life events alone do not alter structural connectivity globally, but they are associated to connectivity properties in areas involved in emotion and attention.</p

Differential predictors for alcohol use in adolescents as a function of familial risk.

Traditional models of future alcohol use in adolescents have used variable-centered approaches, predicting alcohol use from a set of variables across entire samples or populations. Following the proposition that predictive factors may vary in adolescents as a function of family history, we used a two-pronged approach by first defining clusters of familial risk, followed by prediction analyses within each cluster. Thus, for the first time in adolescents, we tested whether adolescents with a family history of drug abuse exhibit a set of predictors different from adolescents without a family history. We apply this approach to a genetic risk score and individual differences in personality, cognition, behavior (risk-taking and discounting) substance use behavior at age 14, life events, and functional brain imaging, to predict scores on the alcohol use disorders identification test (AUDIT) at age 14 and 16 in a sample of adolescents (N = 1659 at baseline, N = 1327 at follow-up) from the IMAGEN cohort, a longitudinal community-based cohort of adolescents. In the absence of familial risk (n = 616), individual differences in baseline drinking, personality measures (extraversion, negative thinking), discounting behaviors, life events, and ventral striatal activation during reward anticipation were significantly associated with future AUDIT scores, while the overall model explained 22% of the variance in future AUDIT. In the presence of familial risk (n = 711), drinking behavior at age 14, personality measures (extraversion, impulsivity), behavioral risk-taking, and life events were significantly associated with future AUDIT scores, explaining 20.1% of the overall variance. Results suggest that individual differences in personality, cognition, life events, brain function, and drinking behavior contribute differentially to the prediction of future alcohol misuse. This approach may inform more individualized preventive interventions

Predicting change trajectories of neuroticism from baseline brain structure using whole brain analyses and latent growth curve models in adolescents

International audienceAbstract Adolescence is a vulnerable time for personality development. Especially neuroticism with its link to the development of psychopathology is of interest concerning influential factors. The present study exploratorily investigates neuroanatomical signatures for developmental trajectories of neuroticism based on a voxel-wise whole-brain structural equation modelling framework. In 1,814 healthy adolescents of the IMAGEN sample, the NEO-FFI was acquired at three measurement occasions across five years. Based on a partial measurement invariance second-order latent growth curve model we conducted whole-brain analyses on structural MRI data at age 14 years, predicting change in neuroticism over time. We observed that a reduced volume in the pituitary gland was associated with the slope of neuroticism over time. However, no relations with prefrontal areas emerged. Both findings are discussed against the background of possible genetic and social influences that may account for this result

Drinking Motives, Personality Traits, Life Stressors - Identifying Pathways to Harmful Alcohol Use in Adolescence Using a Panel Network Approach

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Models of alcohol use risk suggest that drinking motives represent the most proximal risk factors on which more distal factors converge. However, little is known about how distinct risk factors influence each other and alcohol use on different temporal scales (within a given moment vs. over time). We aimed to estimate the dynamic associations of distal (personality and life stressors) and proximal (drinking motives) risk factors, and their relationship to alcohol use in adolescence and early adulthood using a novel graphical vector autoregressive (GVAR) panel network approach.DESIGN, SETTING, AND CASES: We estimated panel networks on data from the IMAGEN study, a longitudinal European cohort study following adolescents across three waves (ages 16, 19, 22). Our sample consisted of 1829 adolescents (51% females) who reported alcohol use on at least one assessment wave.MEASUREMENTS: Risk factors included personality traits (NEO-FFI: neuroticism, extraversion, openness, agreeableness, and conscientiousness; SURPS: impulsivity and sensation seeking), stressful life events (LEQ: sum scores of stressful life events), and drinking motives (DMQ: social, enhancement, conformity, coping anxiety, coping depression). We assessed alcohol use (AUDIT: quantity and frequency) and alcohol-related problems (AUDIT: related problems).FINDINGS: Within a given moment, social (partial correlation (pcor) =0.17) and enhancement motives (pcor=0.15) co-occurred most strongly with drinking quantity and frequency, while coping depression motives (pcor=0.13), openness (pcor=0.05), and impulsivity (pcor=0.09) were related to alcohol-related problems. The temporal network showed no predictive associations between distal risk factors and drinking motives. Social motives (beta=0.21), previous alcohol use (beta=0.11), and openness (beta=0.10) predicted alcohol-related problems over time (all p&lt;0.01).CONCLUSIONS: Heavy and frequent alcohol use, along with social drinking motives, appear to be key targets for preventing the development of alcohol-related problems throughout late adolescence. We found no evidence for personality traits and life stressors predisposing towards distinct drinking motives over time.</p

Examination of the neural basis of psychotic-like experiences in adolescence during processing of emotional faces

Contemporary theories propose that dysregulation of emotional perception is involved in the aetiology of psychosis. 298 healthy adolescents were assessed at age 14- and 19-years using fMRI while performing a facial emotion task. Psychotic-like experiences (PLEs) were assessed with the CAPE-42 questionnaire at age 19. The high PLEs group at age 19 years exhibited an enhanced response in right insular cortex and decreased response in right prefrontal, right parahippocampal and left striatal regions; also, a gradient of decreasing response to emotional faces with age, from 14 to 19 years, in the right parahippocampal region and left insular cortical area. The right insula demonstrated an increasing response to emotional faces with increasing age in the low PLEs group, and a decreasing response over time in the high PLEs group. The change in parahippocampal/amygdala and insula responses during the perception of emotional faces in adolescents with high PLEs between the ages of 14 and 19 suggests a potential ‘aberrant’ neurodevelopmental trajectory for critical limbic areas. Our findings emphasize the role of the frontal and limbic areas in the aetiology of psychotic symptoms, in subjects without the illness phenotype and the confounds introduced by antipsychotic medication

Neural network involving medial orbitofrontal cortex and dorsal periaqueductal gray regulation in human alcohol abuse.

Prompted by recent evidence of neural circuitry in rodent models, functional magnetic resonance imaging and functional connectivity analyses were conducted for a large adolescent population at two ages, together with alcohol abuse measures, to characterize a neural network that may underlie the onset of alcoholism. A network centered on the medial orbitofrontal cortex (mOFC), as well as including the dorsal periaqueductal gray (dPAG), central nucleus of the amygdala, and nucleus accumbens, was identified, consistent with the rodent models, with evidence of both inhibitory and excitatory coregulation by the mOFC over the dPAG. Furthermore, significant relationships were detected between raised baseline excitatory coregulation in this network and impulsivity measures, supporting a role for negative urgency in alcohol dependence

The interaction of child abuse and rs1360780 of the FKBP5 gene is associated with amygdala resting-state functional connectivity in young adults

Extensive research has demonstrated that rs1360780, a common single nucleotide polymorphism within the FKBP5 gene, interacts with early-life stress in predicting psychopathology. Previous results suggest that carriers of the TT genotype of rs1360780 who were exposed to child abuse show differences in structure and functional activation of emotion-processing brain areas belonging to the salience network. Extending these findings on intermediate phenotypes of psychopathology, we examined if the interaction between rs1360780 and child abuse predicts resting-state functional connectivity (rsFC) between the amygdala and other areas of the salience network. We analyzed data of young European adults from the general population (N = 774; mean age = 18.76 years) who took part in the IMAGEN study. In the absence of main effects of genotype and abuse, a significant interaction effect was observed for rsFC between the right centromedial amygdala and right posterior insula (p < .025, FWE-corrected), which was driven by stronger rsFC in TT allele carriers with a history of abuse. Our results suggest that the TT genotype of rs1360780 may render individuals with a history of abuse more vulnerable to functional changes in communication between brain areas processing emotions and bodily sensations, which could underlie or increase the risk for psychopathology