Millennial-Scale Climate and Human Drivers of Environmental Change and Fire Activity in a Dry, Mixed-Conifer Forest of Northwestern Montana

Warm summer temperatures and longer fire seasons are promoting larger, and in some cases, more fires that are severe in low- and mid-elevation, dry mixed-conifer forests of the Northern Rocky Mountains (NRM). Long-term historical fire conditions and human influence on past fire activity are not well understood for these topographically and biophysically heterogeneous forests. We developed reconstructions of millennial-scale fire activity, vegetation change, and human presence at Black Lake, a small closed-basin lake on the Flathead Indian Reservation in the Mission Valley, Northwestern Montana, United States. Fossil pollen, charcoal, and biomarkers associated with human presence were used to evaluate the interaction between climate variability, fire activity, vegetation change and human activity for the past 7000 years. Comparisons among multiple proxies suggest climate variability acted as the primary control on fire activity and vegetation change from the early Holocene until the late Holocene when records suggest fire activity and climate variability decoupled. Specific biomarkers (5β-stanols including coprostanol and epi-coprostanol) associated with human presence indicate humans were present within the Black Lake watershed for thousands of years, although the inferred intensity of human presence is highly variable. A strong relationship between climate variability and fire activity during the early and mid-Holocene weakens during the last few thousand years, suggesting possible increased influence of humans in mediating fire activity in recent millennia, and/or a shift in the interaction between the distribution and abundance of woody fuel and fire severity. Human-set fires during the cooler and wetter late Holocene may have been aimed at maintaining important cultural resources associated with the heterogeneous mosaic of mixed conifer forests within the Black Lake watershed. The paleoenvironmental reconstruction at Black Lake corroborates archeological records that show humans were present within the Black Lake watershed for over 7000 years. Further research is needed to evaluate the evidence for this continuous presence and the possible role that people played in shaping fire regimes and vegetation within low- to mid-elevation mixed-conifer ecosystems of the NRM

Placing the Common Era in a Holocene context: millennial to centennial patterns and trends in the hydroclimate of North America over the past 2000 years

A synthesis of 93 hydrologic records from across North and Central America, and adjacent tropical and Arctic islands, reveals centennial to millennial trends in the regional hydroclimates of the Common Era (CE; past 2000 years). The hydrological records derive from materials stored in lakes, bogs, caves, and ice from extant glaciers, which have the continuity through time to preserve low-frequency ( \u3e 100 year) climate signals that may extend deeper into the Holocene. The most common pattern, represented in 46 (49 %) of the records, indicates that the centuries before 1000 CE were drier than the centuries since that time. Principal component analysis indicates that millennial-scale trends represent the dominant pattern of variance in the southwestern US, northeastern US, mid-continent, Pacific Northwest, Arctic, and tropics, although not all records within a region show the same direction of change. The Pacific Northwest and the southernmost tier of the tropical sites tended to dry toward present, as many other areas became wetter than before. In 22 records (24 %), the Medieval Climate Anomaly period (800–1300 CE) was drier than the Little Ice Age (1400–1900 CE), but in many cases the difference was part of the longer millennial-scale trend, and, in 25 records (27 %), the Medieval Climate Anomaly period represented a pluvial (wet) phase. Where quantitative records permitted a comparison, we found that centennial-scale fluctuations over the Common Era represented changes of 3–7% in the modern interannual range of variability in precipitation, but the accumulation of these long-term trends over the entirety of the Holocene caused recent centuries to be significantly wetter, on average, than most of the past 11 000 years

Exploring Adaptive Management for Greater Sage Grouse in Northern Montana in the Face of Climate Change

A collaboration has begun in Montana among several state and federal agencies and non-governmental organizations interested in the management of greater sage grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in a > 5,000,000-ac (> 20,234-ha) landscape including the Charles M. Russell National Wildlife Refuge. The first step was conducting personal interviews with field biologists and managers in the general area to assess what management actions they are making. Using this information, we conducted an on-line survey to further identify those actions and how they are made. Finally, almost 40 managers and scientists met to discuss whether an adaptive management approach might be useful to gain an understanding of the interaction among habitats and management actions and how this will be affected by annual weather and climate patterns. A conceptual model of how these factors affect the life cycle of grouse has been drafted, and we are gathering comments on it. The intent is for that to be used as an ecological response model for assessing the effects of possible climate change scenarios. Future work will entail: (1) further delineation of management actions and the social networks associated with them, (2) building and evaluating a working model using rapid prototype methods, (3) conducting futures analyses of associated landscapes, (4) continuing to foster collaborative effort, and (5) working one-onone with managers to evaluate model and adaptive management applicability using such tools as LCMAP (Landscape Conservation Management and Analysis Portal)

Climatic Controls on the Snowmelt Hydrology of the Northern Rocky Mountains

The northern Rocky Mountains (NRMs) are a critical headwaters region with the majority of water resources originating from mountain snowpack. Observations showing declines in western U.S. snowpack have implications for water resources and biophysical processes in high-mountain environments. This study investigates oceanic and atmospheric controls underlying changes in timing, variability, and trends documented across the entire hydroclimatic-monitoring system within critical NRM watersheds. Analyses were conducted using records from 25 snow telemetry (SNOTEL) stations, 148 1 April snow course records, stream gauge records from 14 relatively unimpaired rivers, and 37 valley meteorological stations. Over the past four decades, midelevation SNOTEL records show a tendency toward decreased snowpack with peak snow water equivalent (SWE) arriving and melting out earlier. Temperature records show significant seasonal and annual decreases in the number of frost days (days ≤0°C) and changes in spring minimum temperatures that correspond with atmospheric circulation changes and surface–albedo feedbacks in March and April. Warmer spring temperatures coupled with increases in mean and variance of spring precipitation correspond strongly to earlier snowmeltout, an increased number of snow-free days, and observed changes in streamflow timing and discharge. The majority of the variability in peak and total annual snowpack and streamflow, however, is explained by season-dependent interannual-to-interdecadal changes in atmospheric circulation associated with Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures. Over recent decades, increased spring precipitation appears to be buffering NRM total annual streamflow from what would otherwise be greater snow-related declines in hydrologic yield. Results have important implications for ecosystems, water resources, and long-lead-forecasting capabilities

A global multiproxy database for temperature reconstructions of the Common Era

Reproducible climate reconstructions of the Common Era (1 CE to present) are key to placing industrial-era warming into the context of natural climatic variability. Here we present a community-sourced database of temperature- sensitive proxy records from the PAGES2k initiative. The database gathers 692 records from 648 locations, including all continental regions and major ocean basins. The records are from trees, ice, sediment, corals, speleothems, documentary evidence, and other archives. They range in length from 50 to 2000 years, with a median of 547 years, while temporal resolution ranges from biweekly to centennial. Nearly half of the proxy time series are significantly correlated with HadCRUT4.2 surface temperature over the period 1850–2014. Global temperature composites show a remarkable degree of coherence between high- and low-resolution archives, with broadly similar patterns across archive types, terrestrial versus marine locations, and screening criteria. The database is suited to investigations of global and regional temperature variability over the Common Era, and is shared in the Linked Paleo Data (LiPD) format, including serializations in Matlab, R and Python

Time for T? Immunoinformatics addresses the challenges of vaccine design for neglected tropical and emerging infectious diseases

Vaccines have been invaluable for global health, saving lives and reducing healthcare costs, while also raising the quality of human life. However, newly emerging infectious diseases (EID) and more well-established tropical disease pathogens present complex challenges to vaccine developers; in particular, neglected tropical diseases, which are most prevalent among the world’s poorest, include many pathogens with large sizes, multistage life cycles and a variety of nonhuman vectors. EID such as MERS-CoV and H7N9 are highly pathogenic for humans. For many of these pathogens, while their genomes are available, immune correlates of protection are currently unknown. These complexities make developing vaccines for EID and neglected tropical diseases all the more difficult. In this review, we describe the implementation of an immunoinformatics-driven approach to systematically search for key determinants of immunity in newly available genome sequence data and design vaccines. This approach holds promise for the development of 21st century vaccines, improving human health everywhere

Loss of a Conserved tRNA Anticodon Modification Perturbs Plant Immunity

[EN] tRNA is the most highly modified class of RNA species, and modifications are found in tRNAs from all organisms that have been examined. Despite their vastly different chemical structures and their presence in different tRNAs, occurring in different locations in tRNA, the biosynthetic pathways of the majority of tRNA modifications include a methylation step(s). Recent discoveries have revealed unprecedented complexity in the modification patterns of tRNA, their regulation and function, suggesting that each modified nucleoside in tRNA may have its own specific function. However, in plants, our knowledge on the role of individual tRNA modifications and how they are regulated is very limited. In a genetic screen designed to identify factors regulating disease resistance and activation of defenses in Arabidopsis, we identified SUPPRESSOR OF CSB3 9 (SCS9). Our results reveal SCS9 encodes a tRNA methyltransferase that mediates the 2'-O-ribose methylation of selected tRNA species in the anticodon loop. These SCS9-mediated tRNA modifications enhance during the course of infection with the bacterial pathogen Pseudomonas syringae DC3000, and lack of such tRNA modification, as observed in scs9 mutants, severely compromise plant immunity against the same pathogen without affecting the salicylic acid (SA) signaling pathway which regulates plant immune responses. Our results support a model that gives importance to the control of certain tRNA modifications for mounting an effective immune response in Arabidopsis, and therefore expands the repertoire of molecular components essential for an efficient disease resistance response.This work was supported by the National Science Foundation of China (grant 31100268 to PC) and the Spanish MINECO (BFU2012 to PV) and Generalitat Valenciana (Prometeo2014/020 to PV). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.Ramirez Garcia, V.; González-García, B.; López Sánchez, A.; Castelló Llopis, MJ.; Gil, M.; Zheng, B.; Cheng, P.... (2015). Loss of a Conserved tRNA Anticodon Modification Perturbs Plant Immunity. PLoS Genetics. 11(10):1-27. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pgen.1005586S127111

The National Early Warning Score and its subcomponents recorded within ±24 hours of emergency medical admission are poor predictors of hospital-acquired acute kidney injury

YesBackground: Hospital-acquired Acute Kidney Injury (H-AKI) is a common cause of avoidable morbidity and mortality. Aim: To determine if the patients’ vital signs data as defined by a National Early Warning Score (NEWS), can predict H-AKI following emergency admission to hospital. Methods: Analyses of emergency admissions to York hospital over 24-months with NEWS data. We report the area under the curve (AUC) for logistic regression models that used the index NEWS (model A0), plus age and sex (A1), plus subcomponents of NEWS (A2) and two-way interactions (A3). Likewise for maximum NEWS (models B0,B1,B2,B3). Results: 4.05% (1361/33608) of emergency admissions had H-AKI. Models using the index NEWS had the lower AUCs (0.59 to 0.68) than models using the maximum NEWS AUCs (0.75 to 0.77). The maximum NEWS model (B3) was more sensitivity than the index NEWS model (A0) (67.60% vs 19.84%) but identified twice as many cases as being at risk of H-AKI (9581 vs 4099) at a NEWS of 5. Conclusions: The index NEWS is a poor predictor of H-AKI. The maximum NEWS is a better predictor but seems unfeasible because it is only knowable in retrospect and is associated with a substantial increase in workload albeit with improved sensitivity.The Health Foundatio

Coherent late-Holocene climate-driven shifts in the structure of three Rocky Mountain lakes

Large-scale atmospheric pressure centers, such as the Aleutian and Icelandic Low, have a demonstrated relationship with physical lake characteristics in contemporary monitoring studies, but the responses to these phenomena are rarely observed in lake records. We observe coherent changes in the stratification patterns of three deep (\u3e30 m) lakes inferred from fossil diatom assemblages as a response to shifts in the location and intensity of the Aleutian Low and compare these changes with similar long-term changes observed in the 18O record from the Yukon. Specifically, these records indicate that between 3.2 and 1.4 ka, the Aleutian Low shifted westward, resulting in an increased frequency of storm tracks across the Pacific Northwest during winter and spring. This change in atmospheric circulation ultimately produced deeper mixing in the upper waters of these three lake systems. Enhanced stratification between 4.5 and 3.3 ka and from 1.3 ka to present suggests a strengthened Aleutian Low and more meridional circulation