Refining tree recruitment models

We used a micrometeorological dispersal model to simulate seed and seedling distributions derived from subcanopy balsam fir (Abies balsamea (L.) Mill.) source trees in a trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.) dominated forest. Our first objective was to determine the effect of substituting basal area for cone production as a proxy for seed output. The results showed that the r2 from the regression of predicted versus observed densities increased by ∼5% for seeds and ∼15% for seedling simulations. Our second objective was to determine the effects of changing the median horizontal wind speed. The median speed in this forest environment varies according to the proportion of leaves abscised. For values of the median expected wind speed between the extremes of leafless and full-canopy forests, the r2 of predicted versus observed varied between 0.35 and 0.49 for seeds and between 0.33 and 0.62 for seedling simulations. We demonstrated that the simple one-dimensional model can have added precision if the dispersal parameters are chosen so as to allow more fine-scale variation

Modelling silvicultural alternatives for conifer regeneration in boreal mixedwood stands (aspen/white spruce/balsam fir)

We model and compare the biological and financial constraints of four prescriptions that serve as alternatives to conventional clearcutting followed by planting in eastern and western boreal mixedwood stands. These alternative prescriptions for full or partial conifer stocking are (1) reliance on advance regeneration with or without augmentation by fill-planting; (2) understory scarification during a mast year; (3) direct seeding either aerially or with a scarifier-seeder; and (4) underplanting. Our main conclusions concerning the biological constraints are that (1) advance regeneration, mainly of balsam fir in the east and white spruce in the west, requires >26 000 and > 4000 trees/ha (because of different distributions), respectively, to achieve full conifer stocking; (2) reliance on a mast year requires at least 6 m2/ha of mature conifer basal area, but much less if some advance regeneration is present or only moderate stocking is desired; (3) aerial seeding with 35% scarification requires about a half-million seeds/ha to achieve full conifer stocking, while a scarifier-seeder would require only a third of this application rate; and (4) underplanting is constrained to aspen stands with >25% incident light at planting height. In all cases, alternative prescriptions become more feasible if only moderate or minimal stocking is the silvicultural objective. A costing exercise for the four prescriptions in comparison with a clearcut followed by planting shows that reliance on advance regeneration or understory planting are the cheapest alternatives to achieve full or partial conifer stocking. With the exception of full conifer stocking in situations where there is little advance regeneration (and where herbicides can be used), conventional plantations are never the cheapest approach. In such cases, fill planting and use of a scarifier-seeder become viable options. Aerial seeding and reliance on a mast year are the most expensive of the alternatives. We conclude, tentatively, that there is enough conifer basal area in most of the eastern boreal mixedwood of Canada to allow for the use of either or both a mast year and advance regeneration to achieve full or partial conifer stocking. By contrast, in the west conifer basal area will seldom be sufficient for natural seeding, and the density of advance regeneration is likewise often too low. Finally, because of light constraints, understory planting appears to have a much wider applicability in the west than in the east

An approximate renormalization-group transformation for Hamiltonian systems with three degrees of freedom

We construct an approximate renormalization transformation that combines Kolmogorov-Arnold-Moser (KAM)and renormalization-group techniques, to analyze instabilities in Hamiltonian systems with three degrees of freedom. This scheme is implemented both for isoenergetically nondegenerate and for degenerate Hamiltonians. For the spiral mean frequency vector, we find numerically that the iterations of the transformation on nondegenerate Hamiltonians tend to degenerate ones on the critical surface. As a consequence, isoenergetically degenerate and nondegenerate Hamiltonians belong to the same universality class, and thus the corresponding critical invariant tori have the same type of scaling properties. We numerically investigate the structure of the attracting set on the critical surface and find that it is a strange nonchaotic attractor. We compute exponents that characterize its universality class.Comment: 10 pages typeset using REVTeX, 7 PS figure

On the selection of AGN neutrino source candidates for a source stacking analysis with neutrino telescopes

The sensitivity of a search for sources of TeV neutrinos can be improved by grouping potential sources together into generic classes in a procedure that is known as source stacking. In this paper, we define catalogs of Active Galactic Nuclei (AGN) and use them to perform a source stacking analysis. The grouping of AGN into classes is done in two steps: first, AGN classes are defined, then, sources to be stacked are selected assuming that a potential neutrino flux is linearly correlated with the photon luminosity in a certain energy band (radio, IR, optical, keV, GeV, TeV). Lacking any secure detailed knowledge on neutrino production in AGN, this correlation is motivated by hadronic AGN models, as briefly reviewed in this paper. The source stacking search for neutrinos from generic AGN classes is illustrated using the data collected by the AMANDA-II high energy neutrino detector during the year 2000. No significant excess for any of the suggested groups was found.Comment: 43 pages, 12 figures, accepted by Astroparticle Physic

Mendelian randomisation study of height and body mass index as modifiers of ovarian cancer risk in 22,588 BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers

Item does not contain fulltextBACKGROUND: Height and body mass index (BMI) are associated with higher ovarian cancer risk in the general population, but whether such associations exist among BRCA1/2 mutation carriers is unknown. METHODS: We applied a Mendelian randomisation approach to examine height/BMI with ovarian cancer risk using the Consortium of Investigators for the Modifiers of BRCA1/2 (CIMBA) data set, comprising 14,676 BRCA1 and 7912 BRCA2 mutation carriers, with 2923 ovarian cancer cases. We created a height genetic score (height-GS) using 586 height-associated variants and a BMI genetic score (BMI-GS) using 93 BMI-associated variants. Associations were assessed using weighted Cox models. RESULTS: Observed height was not associated with ovarian cancer risk (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.07 per 10-cm increase in height, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.94-1.23). Height-GS showed similar results (HR = 1.02, 95% CI: 0.85-1.23). Higher BMI was significantly associated with increased risk in premenopausal women with HR = 1.25 (95% CI: 1.06-1.48) and HR = 1.59 (95% CI: 1.08-2.33) per 5-kg/m(2) increase in observed and genetically determined BMI, respectively. No association was found for postmenopausal women. Interaction between menopausal status and BMI was significant (Pinteraction < 0.05). CONCLUSION: Our observation of a positive association between BMI and ovarian cancer risk in premenopausal BRCA1/2 mutation carriers is consistent with findings in the general population