Fentanyl related overdose in Indianapolis: Estimating trends using multilevel Bayesian models

Introduction: The opioid epidemic has been largely attributed to changes in prescribing practices over the past 20 years. Although current overdose trends appear driven by the opioid fentanyl, heroin has remained the focus of overdose fatality assessments. We obtained full toxicology screens on lethal overdose cases in a major US city, allowing more accurate assessment of the time-course of fentanyl-related deaths. Methods: We used coroner data from Marion County, Indiana comprising 1583 overdose deaths recorded between January 1, 2010 and April 30, 2017. Bayesian multilevel models were fitted to predict likelihood of lethal fentanyl-related overdose using information about the victim's age, race, sex, zip code, and date of death. Results: Three hundred and seventy-seven (23.8%) overdose deaths contained fentanyl across the seven-year period. Rates rose exponentially over time, beginning well below 15% from 2010 through 2013 before rising to approximately 50% by 2017. At the beginning of the study period, rates of fentanyl overdose were lowest among Black persons but increased more rapidly, eventually surpassing Whites. Currently, White females may be at particularly low risk of fentanyl overdose and Black females at high risk. Rates were highest for younger and middle-aged groups. Over time, fentanyl was more likely detected without the presence of other opioids. Conclusions: Fentanyl has increasingly been detected in fatal overdose deaths in Marion County. Policy and program responses must focus on education for those at highest risk of fentanyl exposure and death. These responses should also be tailored to meet the unique needs of high-risk demographics.This publication was supported by the Grant Number, 5 NU17CE002721-02, funded by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Its contents are solely the responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official views of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention or the Department of Health and Human Services

When and why direct transmission models can be used for environmentally persistent pathogens

Variants of the susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model of Kermack & McKendrick (1927) enjoy wide application in epidemiology, offering simple yet powerful inferential and predictive tools in the study of diverse infectious diseases across human, animal and plant populations. Direct transmission models (DTM) are a subset of these that treat the processes of disease transmission as comprising a series of discrete instantaneous events. Infections transmitted indirectly by persistent environmental pathogens, however, are examples where a DTM description might fail and are perhaps better described by models that comprise explicit environmental transmission routes, so-called environmental transmission models (ETM). In this paper we discuss the stochastic susceptible-exposed-infected-removed (SEIR) DTM and susceptible-exposed-infected-removed-pathogen (SEIR-P) ETM and we show that the former is the timescale separation limit of the latter, with ETM host-disease dynamics increasingly resembling those of a DTM when the pathogen’s characteristic timescale is shortened, relative to that of the host population. Using graphical posterior predictive checks (GPPC), we investigate the validity of the SEIR model when fitted to simulated SEIR-P host infection and removal times. Such analyses demonstrate how, in many cases, the SEIR model is robust to departure from direct transmission. Finally, we present a case study of white spot disease (WSD) in penaeid shrimp with rates of environmental transmission and pathogen decay (SEIR-P model parameters) estimated using published results of experiments. Using SEIR and SEIR-P simulations of a hypothetical WSD outbreak management scenario, we demonstrate how relative shortening of the pathogen timescale comes about in practice. With atttempts to remove diseased shrimp from the population every 24h, we see SEIR and SEIR-P model outputs closely conincide. However, when removals are 6-hourly, the two models’ mean outputs diverge, with distinct predictions of outbreak size and duration

Influence of the initial chemical conditions on the rational design of silica particles

The influence of the water content in the initial composition on the size of silica particles produced using the Stöber process is well known. We have shown that there are three morphological regimes defined by compositional boundaries. At low water levels (below stoichiometric ratio of water:tetraethoxysilane), very high surface area and aggregated structures are formed; at high water content (>40 wt%) similar structures are also seen. Between these two boundary conditions, discrete particles are formed whose size are dictated by the water content. Within the compositional regime that enables the classical Stöber silica, the structural evolution shows a more rapid attainment of final particle size than the rate of formation of silica supporting the monomer addition hypothesis. The clearer understanding of the role of the initial composition on the output of this synthesis method will be of considerable use for the establishment of reliable reproducible silica production for future industrial adoption

Case report of right hamate hook fracture in a patient with previous fracture history of left hamate hook: is it hamate bipartite?

BACKGROUND: Hamate hook fracture is a common fracture in golfers and others who play sports that involve rackets or sticks such as tennis or hockey. This patient had a previous hamate fracture in the opposing wrist along with potential features of hamate bipartite. CASE PRESENTATION: A 19 year old male presented with a complaint of right wrist pain on the ulnar side of the wrist with no apparent mechanism of injury. The pain came on gradually one week before being seen in the office and he reported no prior care for the complaint. His history includes traumatic left hamate hook fracture with surgical excision. CONCLUSION: The patient was found to have marked tenderness over the hamate and with a prior fracture to the other wrist, computed tomography of the wrist was ordered revealing a fracture to the hamate hook in the right wrist. He was referred for surgical evaluation and the hook of the hamate was excised. Post-surgically, the patient was able to return to normal activity within eight weeks. This case is indicative of fracture rather than hamate bipartite. This fracture should be considered in a case of ulnar sided wrist pain where marked tenderness is noted over the hamate, especially after participation in club or racket sports

First narrow-band search for continuous gravitational waves from known pulsars in advanced detector data

Spinning neutron stars asymmetric with respect to their rotation axis are potential sources of continuous gravitational waves for ground-based interferometric detectors. In the case of known pulsars a fully coherent search, based on matched filtering, which uses the position and rotational parameters obtained from electromagnetic observations, can be carried out. Matched filtering maximizes the signalto- noise (SNR) ratio, but a large sensitivity loss is expected in case of even a very small mismatch between the assumed and the true signal parameters. For this reason, narrow-band analysis methods have been developed, allowing a fully coherent search for gravitational waves from known pulsars over a fraction of a hertz and several spin-down values. In this paper we describe a narrow-band search of 11 pulsars using data from Advanced LIGO’s first observing run. Although we have found several initial outliers, further studies show no significant evidence for the presence of a gravitational wave signal. Finally, we have placed upper limits on the signal strain amplitude lower than the spin-down limit for 5 of the 11 targets over the bands searched; in the case of J1813-1749 the spin-down limit has been beaten for the first time. For an additional 3 targets, the median upper limit across the search bands is below the spin-down limit. This is the most sensitive narrow-band search for continuous gravitational waves carried out so far

Evaluating a stroke-specific version of the Illness Perception Questionnaire-Revised, using the Think-Aloud method

The main purpose was to evaluate, using the Think-Aloud method, a version of the Illness Perception Questionnaire-Revised (IPQ-R) for stroke survivors (the Stroke IPQ-R). Six stroke survivors (mean age=58.8 years, range=31 to 78 years, SD=18.9 years) took part in Think-Aloud interviews, analysed according to established guidelines. Overall, 179 problems emerged. The most noteworthy was missing or insufficient Think-Aloud data generated, where participants did not think out loud. Others included complex and negative item wording, and items on the treatment control sub-scale. Questionnaire length, simpler wording and verbal probing are important considerations in further development of an IPQ-R for stroke

CT scan screening is associated with increased distress among subjects of the APExS

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The aim of this study was to assess the psychological consequences of HRCT scan screening in retired asbestos-exposed workers.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A HRCT-scan screening program for asbestos-related diseases was carried out in four regions of France. At baseline (T1), subjects filled in self-administered occupational questionnaires. In two of the regions, subjects also received a validated psychological scale, namely the psychological consequences questionnaire (PCQ). The physician was required to provide the subject with the results of the HRCT scan at a final visit. A second assessment of psychological consequences was performed 6 months after the HRCT-scan examination (T2). PCQ scores were compared quantitatively (t-test, general linear model) and qualitatively (chi²-test, logistic regression) to screening results. Multivariate analyses were adjusted for gender, age, smoking, asbestos exposure and counseling.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Among the 832 subjects included in this psychological impact study, HRCT-scan screening was associated with a significant increase of the psychological score 6 months after the examination relative to baseline values (8.31 to 10.08, p < 0.0001, t-test). This increase concerned patients with an abnormal HRCT-scan result, regardless of the abnormalities, but also patients with normal HRCT-scans after adjustment for age, gender, smoking status, asbestos exposure and counseling visit. The greatest increase was observed for pleural plaques (+3.60; 95%CI [+2.15;+5.06]), which are benign lesions. Detection of isolated pulmonary nodules was also associated with a less marked but nevertheless significant increase of distress (+1.88; 95%CI [+0.34;+3.42]). However, analyses based on logistic regressions only showed a close to significant increase of the proportion of subjects with abnormal PCQ scores at T2 for patients with asbestosis (OR = 1.92; 95%CI [0.97-3.81]) or with two or more diseases (OR = 2.04; 95%CI [0.95-4.37]).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This study suggests that HRCT-scan screening may be associated with increased distress in asbestos-exposed subjects. If confirmed, these results may have consequences for HRCT-scan screening recommendations.</p

Understanding recovery in the context of lived experience of personality disorders: a collaborative, qualitative research study

Background Concepts of recovery increasingly inform the development and delivery of mental health services internationally. In the UK recent policy advocates the application of recovery concepts to the treatment of personality disorders. However diagnosis and understanding of personality disorders remains contested, challenging any assumption that mainstream recovery thinking can be directly translated into personality disorders services. Methods In a qualitative interview-based study understandings of recovery were explored in extended, in-depth interviews with six people purposively sampled from a specialist personality disorders’ service in the UK. An interpretive, collaborative approach to research was adopted in which university-, clinical- and service user (consumer) researchers were jointly involved in carrying out interviews and analysing interview data. Results Findings suggested that recovery cannot be conceptualised separately from an understanding of the lived experience of personality disorders. This experience was characterised by a complexity of ambiguous, interrelating and conflicting feelings, thoughts and actions as individuals tried to cope with tensions between internally and externally experienced worlds. Our analysis was suggestive of a process of recovering or, for some, discovering a sense of self that can safely coexist in both worlds. Conclusions We conclude that key facilitators of recovery – positive personal relationships and wider social interaction – are also where the core vulnerabilities of individuals with lived experience of personaility disorders can lie. There is a role for personality disorders services in providing a safe space in which to develop positive relationships. Through discursive practice within the research team understandings of recovery were co-produced that responded to the lived experience of personality disorders and were of applied relevance to practitioners