Idealised simulations of cyclones with robust symmetrically-unstable sting jets

Idealised simulations of Shapiro-Keyser cyclones developing a sting jet (SJ) are presented. Thanks to an improved and accurate implementation of thermal wind balance in the initial state, it has been possible to use more realistic environments than in previous idealised studies. As a consequence, this study provides further insight in SJ evolution and dynamics and explores SJ robustness to different environmental conditions, assessed via a wide range of sensitivity experiments. The control simulation contains a cyclone that fits the Shapiro-Keyser conceptual model and develops a SJ whose dynamics are associated with the evolution of mesoscale instabilities along the airstream, including symmetric instability (SI). The SJ undergoes a strong descent while leaving the cloud-head banded tip and markedly accelerating towards the frontal-fracture region, revealed as an area of buckling of the already-sloped moist isentropes. Dry instabilities, generated by vorticity tilting via slantwise frontal motions in the cloud head, exist in similar proportions to moist instabilities at the start of the SJ descent and are then released along the SJ. The observed evolution supports the role of SI in the airstream’s dynamics proposed in a conceptual model outlined in a previous study. Sensitivity experiments illustrate that the SJ is a robust feature of intense Shapiro-Keyser cyclones, highlighting a range of different environmental conditions in which SI contributes to the evolution of this airstream, conditional on the model having adequate resolution. The results reveal that several environmental factors can modulate the strength of the SJ. However, a positive relationship between the strength of the SJ, both in terms of peak speed and amount of descent, and the amount of instability occurring along it can still be identified. In summary, the idealised simulations presented in this study show the robustness of SJ occurrence in intense Shapiro-Keyser cyclones and support and clarify the role of dry instabilities in SJ dynamics

Climate Variability and Human Migration in the Netherlands, 1865-1937

Human migration is frequently cited as a potential social outcome of climate change and variability, and these effects are often assumed to be stronger in the past when economies were less developed and markets more localized. Yet, few studies have used historical data to test the relationship between climate and migration directly. In addition, the results of recent studies that link demographic and climate data are not consistent with conventional narratives of displacement responses. Using longitudinal individual-level demographic data from the Historical Sample of the Netherlands (HSN) and climate data that cover the same period, we examine the effects of climate variability on migration using event history models. Only internal moves in the later period and for certain social groups are associated with negative climate conditions, and the strength and direction of the observed effects change over time. International moves decrease with extreme rainfall, suggesting that the complex relationships between climate and migration that have been observed for contemporary populations extend into the nineteenth century

Sting jets in extratropical cyclones: a review

This paper reviews the current state of knowledge of sting jets in extratropical cyclones. Sting jets were formally identified in 2004 by the pioneering work of Keith Browning. Reviewing this and subsequent studies, we define the sting jet as a coherent air flow that descends from mid-levels inside the cloud head into the frontal-fracture region of a Shapiro-Keyser cyclone over a period of a few hours leading to a distinct region of near-surface stronger winds. It therefore lies above the cold conveyor belt during some stage its life, but, at least in some cases, descends to reach the top of boundary layer ahead of the cold conveyor belt. It is not attributed to a specific mechanism in this definition. We conclude that it is likely that a continuum of sting jet descent and speed-up mechanisms exists. At one extreme is balanced descent partly associated with frontolysis in the frontal-fracture region. More horizontally small-scale and stronger frontolytic descent may occur associated with weak stability to slantwise convective downdraughts. Instability to slantwise convective downdraughts may occur in some systems, leading to multiple slantwise convective downdraughts associated with the release of conditional symmetric instability and even, possibly, symmetric instability. The global climatology of sting jets and the interaction between the atmospheric boundary layer and sting jets are revealed as specific areas where more research is needed. Finally, we describe eight myths and misunderstandings that exist in the current literature with the aim of guiding future research into the sting jet phenomenon

Oil Extraction and Indigenous Livelihoods in the Northern Ecuadorian Amazon

Globally, the extraction of minerals and fossil fuels is increasingly penetrating into isolated regions inhabited by indigenous peoples, potentially undermining their livelihoods and well-being. To provide new insight to this issue, we draw on a unique longitudinal dataset collected in the Ecuadorian Amazon over an 11-year period from 484 indigenous households with varying degrees of exposure to oil extraction. Fixed and random effects regression models of the consequences of oil activities for livelihood outcomes reveal mixed and multidimensional effects. These results challenge common assumptions about these processes and are only partly consistent with hypotheses drawn from the Dutch disease literature

Soil quality and human migration in Kenya and Uganda

Soil degradation is widely considered to be a key factor undermining agricultural livelihoods in the developing world and contributing to rural out-migration. To date, however, few quantitative studies have examined the effects of soil characteristics on human migration or other social outcomes for potentially vulnerable households. This study takes advantage of a unique longitudinal survey dataset from Kenya and Uganda containing information on household-level soil properties to investigate the effects of soil quality on population mobility. Random effects multinomial logit models are used to test for effects of soil quality on both temporary and permanent migration while accounting for a variety of potential confounders. The analysis reveals that soil quality significantly reduces migration in Kenya, particularly for temporary labor migration, but marginally increases migration in Uganda. These findings are consistent with several previous studies in showing that adverse environmental conditions tend to increase migration but not universally, contrary to common assumptions about environmentally-induced migration

Detection of coherent airstreams using cluster analysis: application to an extratropical cyclone

Flow in geophysical fluids is commonly summarized by coherent streams, for example conveyor belt flows in extratropical cyclones or jet streaks in the upper troposphere. Typically, parcel trajectories are calculated from the flow field and subjective thresholds are used to distinguish coherent streams of interest. This methodology contribution develops a more objective approach to distinguish coherent airstreams within extratropical cyclones. Agglomerative clustering is applied to trajectories along with a method to identify the optimal number of cluster classes. The methodology is applied to trajectories associated with the low-level jets of a well-studied extratropical cyclone. For computational efficiency, a constraint that trajectories must pass through these jet regions is applied prior to clustering; the partitioning into different airstreams is then performed by the agglomerative clustering. It is demonstrated that the methodology can identify the salient flow structures of cyclones: the warm and cold conveyor belts. A test focusing on the airstreams terminating at the tip of the bent-back front further demonstrates the success of the method in that it can distinguish fine-scale flow structure such as descending sting jet airstreams

Consequences of out-migration for land use in rural Ecuador

In rural Ecuador and elsewhere in Latin America, the departure of migrants and the receipt of migrant remittances have led to declining rural populations and increasing cash incomes. It is commonly assumed that these processes will lead to agricultural abandonment and the regrowth of native vegetation, thus undermining traditional livelihoods and providing a boon for biodiversity conservation. However, an increasing number of household-level studies have found mixed and complex effects of out-migration and remittances on agriculture. We advance this literature by using household survey data and satellite imagery from three study areas in rural Ecuador to investigate the effects of migration and remittances on agricultural land use. Multivariate methods are used to disaggregate the effects of migration and remittances, to account for other influences on land use and to correct for the potential endogeneity of migration and remittances. Contrary to common assumptions but consistent with previous studies, we find that migrant departure has a positive effect on agricultural activities that is offset by migrant remittances. These results suggest that rural out-migration alone is not likely to lead to a forest transition in the study areas

Numerical simulations of stellar SiO maser variability. Investigation of the effect of shocks

A stellar hydrodynamic pulsation model has been combined with a SiO maser model in an attempt to calculate the temporal variability of SiO maser emission in the circumstellar envelope (CE) of a model AGB star. This study investigates whether the variations in local physical conditions brought about by shocks are the predominant contributing factor to SiO maser variability because, in this work, the radiative part of the pump is constant. We find that some aspects of the variability are not consistent with a pump provided by shock-enhanced collisions alone. In these simulations, gas parcels of relatively enhanced SiO abundance are distributed in a model CE by a Monte Carlo method, at a single epoch of the stellar cycle. From this epoch on, Lagrangian motions of individual parcels are calculated according to the velocity fields encountered in the model CE during the stellar pulsation cycle. The potentially masing gas parcels therefore experience different densities and temperatures, and have varying line-of-sight velocity gradients throughout the stellar cycle, which may or may not be suitable to produce maser emission. At each epoch (separated by 16.6 days), emission lines from the parcels are combined to produce synthetic spectra and VLBI-type images. We report here the results for v=1, J=1-0 (43-GHz) and J=2-1 (86-GHz) masers.Comment: 16 pages, 8 figures, accepted by A&

Sting-jet windstorms over the North Atlantic: climatology and contribution to extreme wind risk

Extratropical cyclones with damaging winds can have large socio-economic impacts when they make landfall. During the last decade, studies have identified a mesoscale transient jet, the sting jet, that descends from the tip of the hooked cloud head towards the top of the boundary layer in the dry intrusion region as a cause of strong surface winds, and especially gusts, in some cyclones. While many case studies have focused on the dynamics and characteristics of these jets, there have been few studies that assess the climatology of the associated cyclones and their importance for wind risk. Here we determine the climatological characteristics of North Atlantic cyclones in terms of the possibility that they had sting jets using a previously-published sting-jet precursor diagnostic applied to ERA-Interim data over 32 extended winter seasons from 1979–2012. Of the 5447 cyclones tracked, 32% had the precursor (42% in the 22% of cyclones that developed explosively). Precursor storms have a more southerly and zonal storm track than storms without the precursor and precursor storms tend to be more intense as defined by 850-hPa relative vorticity. This study also shows that precursor storms are the dominant cause of cyclone-related resolved strong wind events over the British Isles for 850-hPa windspeeds exceeding 30 ms−1. Hence, early detection of a sting jet storm could give advance warning of enhanced wind risk. However, over continental northwestern Europe, precusor cyclone-related windstorm events occur far less often

A Blind Search for Magnetospheric Emissions from Planetary Companions to Nearby Solar-type Stars

This paper reports a blind search for magnetospheric emissions from planets around nearby stars. Young stars are likely to have much stronger stellar winds than the Sun, and because planetary magnetospheric emissions are powered by stellar winds, stronger stellar winds may enhance the radio luminosity of any orbiting planets. Using various stellar catalogs, we selected nearby stars (<~ 30 pc) with relatively young age estimates (< 3 Gyr). We constructed different samples from the stellar catalogs, finding between 100 and several hundred stars. We stacked images from the 74-MHz (4-m wavelength) VLA Low-frequency Sky Survey (VLSS), obtaining 3\sigma limits on planetary emission in the stacked images of between 10 and 33 mJy. These flux density limits correspond to average planetary luminosities less than 5--10 x 10^{23} erg/s. Using recent models for the scaling of stellar wind velocity, density, and magnetic field with stellar age, we estimate scaling factors for the strength of stellar winds, relative to the Sun, in our samples. The typical kinetic energy carried by the stellar winds in our samples is 15--50 times larger than that of the Sun, and the typical magnetic energy is 5--10 times larger. If we assume that every star is orbited by a Jupiter-like planet with a luminosity larger than that of the Jovian decametric radiation by the above factors, our limits on planetary luminosities from the stacking analysis are likely to be a factor of 10--100 above what would be required to detect the planets in a statistical sense. Similar statistical analyses with observations by future instruments, such as the Low Frequency Array (LOFAR) and the Long Wavelength Array (LWA), offer the promise of improvements by factors of 10--100.Comment: 11 pages; AASTeX; accepted for publication in A