Neural network ensembles: Evaluation of aggregation algorithms

Ensembles of artificial neural networks show improved generalization capabilities that outperform those of single networks. However, for aggregation to be effective, the individual networks must be as accurate and diverse as possible. An important problem is, then, how to tune the aggregate members in order to have an optimal compromise between these two conflicting conditions. We present here an extensive evaluation of several algorithms for ensemble construction, including new proposals and comparing them with standard methods in the literature. We also discuss a potential problem with sequential aggregation algorithms: the non-frequent but damaging selection through their heuristics of particularly bad ensemble members. We introduce modified algorithms that cope with this problem by allowing individual weighting of aggregate members. Our algorithms and their weighted modifications are favorably tested against other methods in the literature, producing a sensible improvement in performance on most of the standard statistical databases used as benchmarks.Comment: 35 pages, 2 figures, In press AI Journa

Prediction of minimum temperatures in an alpine region by linear and non-linear post-processing of meteorological models

International audienceModel Output Statistics (MOS) refers to a method of post-processing the direct outputs of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models in order to reduce the biases introduced by a coarse horizontal resolution. This technique is especially useful in orographically complex regions, where large differences can be found between the NWP elevation model and the true orography. This study carries out a comparison of linear and non-linear MOS methods, aimed at the prediction of minimum temperatures in a fruit-growing region of the Italian Alps, based on the output of two different NWPs (ECMWF T511?L60 and LAMI-3). Temperature, of course, is a particularly important NWP output; among other roles it drives the local frost forecast, which is of great interest to agriculture. The mechanisms of cold air drainage, a distinctive aspect of mountain environments, are often unsatisfactorily captured by global circulation models. The simplest post-processing technique applied in this work was a correction for the mean bias, assessed at individual model grid points. We also implemented a multivariate linear regression on the output at the grid points surrounding the target area, and two non-linear models based on machine learning techniques: Neural Networks and Random Forest. We compare the performance of all these techniques on four different NWP data sets. Downscaling the temperatures clearly improved the temperature forecasts with respect to the raw NWP output, and also with respect to the basic mean bias correction. Multivariate methods generally yielded better results, but the advantage of using non-linear algorithms was small if not negligible. RF, the best performing method, was implemented on ECMWF prognostic output at 06:00 UTC over the 9 grid points surrounding the target area. Mean absolute errors in the prediction of 2 m temperature at 06:00 UTC were approximately 1.2°C, close to the natural variability inside the area itself

Latent Patient Network Learning for Automatic Diagnosis

Recently, Graph Convolutional Networks (GCNs) has proven to be a powerful machine learning tool for Computer Aided Diagnosis (CADx) and disease prediction. A key component in these models is to build a population graph, where the graph adjacency matrix represents pair-wise patient similarities. Until now, the similarity metrics have been defined manually, usually based on meta-features like demographics or clinical scores. The definition of the metric, however, needs careful tuning, as GCNs are very sensitive to the graph structure. In this paper, we demonstrate for the first time in the CADx domain that it is possible to learn a single, optimal graph towards the GCN's downstream task of disease classification. To this end, we propose a novel, end-to-end trainable graph learning architecture for dynamic and localized graph pruning. Unlike commonly employed spectral GCN approaches, our GCN is spatial and inductive, and can thus infer previously unseen patients as well. We demonstrate significant classification improvements with our learned graph on two CADx problems in medicine. We further explain and visualize this result using an artificial dataset, underlining the importance of graph learning for more accurate and robust inference with GCNs in medical applications

A computer vision approach for weeds identification through Support Vector Machines

This paper outlines an automatic computervision system for the identification of avena sterilis which is a special weed seed growing in cereal crops. The final goal is to reduce the quantity of herbicide to be sprayed as an important and necessary step for precision agriculture. So, only areas where the presence of weeds is important should be sprayed. The main problems for the identification of this kind of weed are its similar spectral signature with respect the crops and also its irregular distribution in the field. It has been designed a new strategy involving two processes: image segmentation and decision making. The image segmentation combines basic suitable image processing techniques in order to extract cells from the image as the low level units. Each cell is described by two area-based attributes measuring the relations among the crops and weeds. The decision making is based on the SupportVectorMachines and determines if a cell must be sprayed. The main findings of this paper are reflected in the combination of the segmentation and the SupportVectorMachines decision processes. Another important contribution of this approach is the minimum requirements of the system in terms of memory and computation power if compared with other previous works. The performance of the method is illustrated by comparative analysis against some existing strategies

Clustering gene expression data with a penalized graph-based metric

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The search for cluster structure in microarray datasets is a base problem for the so-called "-omic sciences". A difficult problem in clustering is how to handle data with a manifold structure, i.e. data that is not shaped in the form of compact clouds of points, forming arbitrary shapes or paths embedded in a high-dimensional space, as could be the case of some gene expression datasets.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In this work we introduce the Penalized k-Nearest-Neighbor-Graph (PKNNG) based metric, a new tool for evaluating distances in such cases. The new metric can be used in combination with most clustering algorithms. The PKNNG metric is based on a two-step procedure: first it constructs the k-Nearest-Neighbor-Graph of the dataset of interest using a low k-value and then it adds edges with a highly penalized weight for connecting the subgraphs produced by the first step. We discuss several possible schemes for connecting the different sub-graphs as well as penalization functions. We show clustering results on several public gene expression datasets and simulated artificial problems to evaluate the behavior of the new metric.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>In all cases the PKNNG metric shows promising clustering results. The use of the PKNNG metric can improve the performance of commonly used pairwise-distance based clustering methods, to the level of more advanced algorithms. A great advantage of the new procedure is that researchers do not need to learn a new method, they can simply compute distances with the PKNNG metric and then, for example, use hierarchical clustering to produce an accurate and highly interpretable dendrogram of their high-dimensional data.</p

Classification of Caesarean Section and Normal Vaginal Deliveries Using Foetal Heart Rate Signals and Advanced Machine Learning Algorithms

ABSTRACT – Background: Visual inspection of Cardiotocography traces by obstetricians and midwives is the gold standard for monitoring the wellbeing of the foetus during antenatal care. However, inter- and intra-observer variability is high with only a 30% positive predictive value for the classification of pathological outcomes. This has a significant negative impact on the perinatal foetus and often results in cardio-pulmonary arrest, brain and vital organ damage, cerebral palsy, hearing, visual and cognitive defects and in severe cases, death. This paper shows that using machine learning and foetal heart rate signals provides direct information about the foetal state and helps to filter the subjective opinions of medical practitioners when used as a decision support tool. The primary aim is to provide a proof-of-concept that demonstrates how machine learning can be used to objectively determine when medical intervention, such as caesarean section, is required and help avoid preventable perinatal deaths. Methodology: This is evidenced using an open dataset that comprises 506 controls (normal virginal deliveries) and 46 cases (caesarean due to pH ≤7.05 and pathological risk). Several machine-learning algorithms are trained, and validated, using binary classifier performance measures. Results: The findings show that deep learning classification achieves Sensitivity = 94%, Specificity = 91%, Area under the Curve = 99%, F-Score = 100%, and Mean Square Error = 1%. Conclusions: The results demonstrate that machine learning significantly improves the efficiency for the detection of caesarean section and normal vaginal deliveries using foetal heart rate signals compared with obstetrician and midwife predictions and systems reported in previous studies