Environmental Decision Making and Risk Management for Groundwater Systems

With an eye to a specific application in New Zealand, Ms. Gough explores the use of risk management approaches for environmental decision making at strategic, policy, management and operational levels

Economic benefits of Mt. Cook National Park

Market and non-market valued decisions are associated with New Zealand's system of national parks. The use benefits of Mount Cook National Park are not priced by the market mechanism, whereas many of the inputs necessary to operate and maintain the Park are priced. Estimates of the economic benefits are relevant information when deciding upon the allocation of resources to, and within, a system of national parks. In 1984, the consumers' surplus for adult New Zealand visitors was about $2.2 million. An estimate of the net national benefits is given by the consumers' surplus obtained by New Zealand visitors, plus the net benefits associated with foreign visitors, less the cost of Park management and land rental. The net benefit of Mount Cook National Park, as it was in 1984, is likely to be positive, indicating that the benefits associated with the current use pattern of resources exceeds their opportunity cost to the nation. However, this result cannot be used to establish the optimality of current expenditure and management. Approximately 170,000 adults visited Mount Cook National Park over 1984; 29$58. These expenditures give rise to secondary economic benefits and create opportunities for regional development. Visitor expenditures in the Mackenzie Basin area are associated with $13.4 million of additional regional output,$6.8 million of additional regional income, and 196 jobs. These effects derive their significance from regional objectives; they are not indicators of the national benefits associated with Mount Cook National Park

Field measurement of natural ventilation rate in an idealised full-scale building located in a staggered urban array: comparison between tracer gas and pressure-based methods

Currently, no clear standards exist for determining urban building natural ventilation rates, especially under varying realistic meteorological conditions. In this study, ventilation rates are determined using tracer gas decay and pressure-based measurements for a full-scale (6 m tall) cube. The cube was either isolated (2 months of observations) or sheltered within a staggered array (7 months), for both single-sided and cross ventilation (openings 0.4 x 1 m). Wind speeds at cube height ranged between 0.04 m s-1 and 13.1 m s-1. Errors for both ventilation methods are carefully assessed. There is no discernible linear relation between normalised ventilation rates from the two methods, except for cross ventilation in the array case. The ratio of tracer gas and pressure derived ventilation rates is assessed with wind direction. For single-sided (leeward opening) cases it approached 1. For cross ventilation the ratio was closer to 1 but with more scatter. One explanation is that agreement is better when internal mixing is less jet-dominated, i.e. for oblique directions in the isolated case and for all directions for unsteady array flows. Sheltering may reduce the flushing rate of the tracer gas from the cube relative to internal mixing rate. This new dataset provides an extensive range of conditions for numerical model evaluation and for understanding uncertainty of ventilation rates. Knowledge of the latter is critical in buildin

Comparison of Schmallenberg virus antibody levels detected in milk and serum from individual cows

BACKGROUND: Schmallenberg virus (SBV) is a recently emerged virus of ruminants in Europe. Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISA) are commonly used to detect SBV-specific antibodies in bulk tank milk samples to monitor herd exposure to infection. However, it has previously been shown that a bulk tank milk sample can test positive even though the majority of cows within the herd are seronegative for SBV antibodies. Development of a pen-side test to detect antibodies in individual milk samples would potentially provide a cheaper test (for which samples are obtained non-invasively) than testing individual serum samples by ELISA. Therefore, the aim of this study was to investigate the agreement between antibody levels measured in milk and serum. RESULTS: Corresponding milk and serum samples from 88 cows in two dairy herds in the UK were tested for presence of immunoglobulin G antibodies to SBV using a commercially-available indirect ELISA. A serum neutralisation test (NT) was also performed as a gold standard assay. The ELISA values obtained for the bulk tank milk samples corresponded with the mean values for individual milk samples from each herd (bulk tank milk values were 58% and 73% and mean individual milk values 50% and 63% for herds A and B, respectively). Of the 88 serum samples tested in the NT, 82 (93%) were positive. Although at higher antibody levels, the ELISA values tended to be higher for the individual milk samples than for the corresponding serum samples, the positive predictive value for milk samples was 98% and for serum samples 94%. The serum ELISA was more likely to give false positive results around the lower cut-off value of the assay. CONCLUSIONS: The results indicate that testing of individual milk samples for antibodies against SBV by ELISA could be used to inform decisions in the management of dairy herds such as which, if any, animals to vaccinate

Fertility Desires and Intentions of HIV-Positive Women of Reproductive Age in Ontario, Canada: A Cross-Sectional Study

Improvements in life expectancy and quality of life for HIV-positive women coupled with reduced vertical transmission will likely lead numerous HIV-positive women to consider becoming pregnant. In order to clarify the demand, and aid with appropriate health services planning for this population, our study aims to assess the fertility desires and intentions of HIV-positive women of reproductive age living in Ontario, Canada.A cross-sectional study with recruitment stratified to match the geographic distribution of HIV-positive women of reproductive age (18-52) living in Ontario was carried out. Women were recruited from 38 sites between October 2007 and April 2009 and invited to complete a 189-item self-administered survey entitled "The HIV Pregnancy Planning Questionnaire" designed to assess fertility desires, intentions and actions. Logistic regression models were fit to calculate unadjusted and adjusted odds ratios of significant predictors of fertility intentions. The median age of the 490 participating HIV-positive women was 38 (IQR, 32-43) and 61%, 52%, 47% and 74% were born outside of Canada, living in Toronto, of African ethnicity and currently on antiretroviral therapy, respectively. Of total respondents, 69% (95% CI, 64%-73%) desired to give birth and 57% (95% CI, 53%-62%) intended to give birth in the future. In the multivariable model, the significant predictors of fertility intentions were: younger age (age<40) (p<0.0001), African ethnicity (p<0.0001), living in Toronto (p = 0.002), and a lower number of lifetime births (p = 0.02).The proportions of HIV-positive women of reproductive age living in Ontario desiring and intending pregnancy were higher than reported in earlier North American studies. Proportions were more similar to those reported from African populations. Healthcare providers and policy makers need to consider increasing services and support for pregnancy planning for HIV-positive women. This may be particularly significant in jurisdictions with high levels of African immigration

Global change effects on plant communities are magnified by time and the number of global change factors imposed

Global change drivers (GCDs) are expected to alter community structure and consequently, the services that ecosystems provide. Yet, few experimental investigations have examined effects of GCDs on plant community structure across multiple ecosystem types, and those that do exist present conflicting patterns. In an unprecedented global synthesis of over 100 experiments that manipulated factors linked to GCDs, we show that herbaceous plant community responses depend on experimental manipulation length and number of factors manipulated. We found that plant communities are fairly resistant to experimentally manipulated GCDs in the short term (<10 y). In contrast, long-term (≥10 y) experiments show increasing community divergence of treatments from control conditions. Surprisingly, these community responses occurred with similar frequency across the GCD types manipulated in our database. However, community responses were more common when 3 or more GCDs were simultaneously manipulated, suggesting the emergence of additive or synergistic effects of multiple drivers, particularly over long time periods. In half of the cases, GCD manipulations caused a difference in community composition without a corresponding species richness difference, indicating that species reordering or replacement is an important mechanism of community responses to GCDs and should be given greater consideration when examining consequences of GCDs for the biodiversity–ecosystem function relationship. Human activities are currently driving unparalleled global changes worldwide. Our analyses provide the most comprehensive evidence to date that these human activities may have widespread impacts on plant community composition globally, which will increase in frequency over time and be greater in areas where communities face multiple GCDs simultaneously

Endovascular strategy or open repair for ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm: one-year outcomes from the IMPROVE randomized trial.

AIMS: To report the longer term outcomes following either a strategy of endovascular repair first or open repair of ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm, which are necessary for both patient and clinical decision-making. METHODS AND RESULTS: This pragmatic multicentre (29 UK and 1 Canada) trial randomized 613 patients with a clinical diagnosis of ruptured aneurysm; 316 to an endovascular first strategy (if aortic morphology is suitable, open repair if not) and 297 to open repair. The principal 1-year outcome was mortality; secondary outcomes were re-interventions, hospital discharge, health-related quality-of-life (QoL) (EQ-5D), costs, Quality-Adjusted-Life-Years (QALYs), and cost-effectiveness [incremental net benefit (INB)]. At 1 year, all-cause mortality was 41.1% for the endovascular strategy group and 45.1% for the open repair group, odds ratio 0.85 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.62, 1.17], P = 0.325, with similar re-intervention rates in each group. The endovascular strategy group and open repair groups had average total hospital stays of 17 and 26 days, respectively, P < 0.001. Patients surviving rupture had higher average EQ-5D utility scores in the endovascular strategy vs. open repair groups, mean differences 0.087 (95% CI 0.017, 0.158), 0.068 (95% CI -0.004, 0.140) at 3 and 12 months, respectively. There were indications that QALYs were higher and costs lower for the endovascular first strategy, combining to give an INB of £3877 (95% CI £253, £7408) or €4356 (95% CI €284, €8323). CONCLUSION: An endovascular first strategy for management of ruptured aneurysms does not offer a survival benefit over 1 year but offers patients faster discharge with better QoL and is cost-effective. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN 48334791

Integrative Annotation of 21,037 Human Genes Validated by Full-Length cDNA Clones

The human genome sequence defines our inherent biological potential; the realization of the biology encoded therein requires knowledge of the function of each gene. Currently, our knowledge in this area is still limited. Several lines of investigation have been used to elucidate the structure and function of the genes in the human genome. Even so, gene prediction remains a difficult task, as the varieties of transcripts of a gene may vary to a great extent. We thus performed an exhaustive integrative characterization of 41,118 full-length cDNAs that capture the gene transcripts as complete functional cassettes, providing an unequivocal report of structural and functional diversity at the gene level. Our international collaboration has validated 21,037 human gene candidates by analysis of high-quality full-length cDNA clones through curation using unified criteria. This led to the identification of 5,155 new gene candidates. It also manifested the most reliable way to control the quality of the cDNA clones. We have developed a human gene database, called the H-Invitational Database (H-InvDB; http://www.h-invitational.jp/). It provides the following: integrative annotation of human genes, description of gene structures, details of novel alternative splicing isoforms, non-protein-coding RNAs, functional domains, subcellular localizations, metabolic pathways, predictions of protein three-dimensional structure, mapping of known single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), identification of polymorphic microsatellite repeats within human genes, and comparative results with mouse full-length cDNAs. The H-InvDB analysis has shown that up to 4% of the human genome sequence (National Center for Biotechnology Information build 34 assembly) may contain misassembled or missing regions. We found that 6.5% of the human gene candidates (1,377 loci) did not have a good protein-coding open reading frame, of which 296 loci are strong candidates for non-protein-coding RNA genes. In addition, among 72,027 uniquely mapped SNPs and insertions/deletions localized within human genes, 13,215 nonsynonymous SNPs, 315 nonsense SNPs, and 452 indels occurred in coding regions. Together with 25 polymorphic microsatellite repeats present in coding regions, they may alter protein structure, causing phenotypic effects or resulting in disease. The H-InvDB platform represents a substantial contribution to resources needed for the exploration of human biology and pathology

The effect of aortic morphology on peri-operative mortality of ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm

Aims To investigate whether aneurysm shape and extent, which indicate whether a patient with ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm (rAAA) is eligible for endovascular repair (EVAR), influence the outcome of both EVAR and open surgical repair. Methods and results The influence of six morphological parameters (maximum aortic diameter, aneurysm neck diameter, length and conicality, proximal neck angle, and maximum common iliac diameter) on mortality and reinterventions within 30 days was investigated in rAAA patients randomized before morphological assessment in the Immediate Management of the Patient with Rupture: Open Versus Endovascular strategies (IMPROVE) trial. Patients with a proven diagnosis of rAAA, who underwent repair and had their admission computerized tomography scan submitted to the core laboratory, were included. Among 458 patients (364 men, mean age 76 years), who had either EVAR (n = 177) or open repair (n = 281) started, there were 155 deaths and 88 re-interventions within 30 days of randomization analysed according to a pre-specified plan. The mean maximum aortic diameter was 8.6 cm. There were no substantial correlations between the six morphological variables. Aneurysm neck length was shorter in those undergoing open repair (vs. EVAR). Aneurysm neck length (mean 23.3, SD 16.1 mm) was inversely associated with mortality for open repair and overall: adjusted OR 0.72 (95% CI 0.57, 0.92) for each 16 mm (SD) increase in length. There were no convincing associations of morphological parameters with reinterventions. Conclusion Short aneurysm necks adversely influence mortality after open repair of rAAA and preclude conventional EVAR. This may help explain why observational studies, but not randomized trials, have shown an early survival benefit for EVAR. Clinical trial registration: ISRCTN 48334791