Fast calibrated additive quantile regression

We propose a novel framework for fitting additive quantile regression models, which provides well calibrated inference about the conditional quantiles and fast automatic estimation of the smoothing parameters, for model structures as diverse as those usable with distributional GAMs, while maintaining equivalent numerical efficiency and stability. The proposed methods are at once statistically rigorous and computationally efficient, because they are based on the general belief updating framework of Bissiri et al. (2016) to loss based inference, but compute by adapting the stable fitting methods of Wood et al. (2016). We show how the pinball loss is statistically suboptimal relative to a novel smooth generalisation, which also gives access to fast estimation methods. Further, we provide a novel calibration method for efficiently selecting the 'learning rate' balancing the loss with the smoothing priors during inference, thereby obtaining reliable quantile uncertainty estimates. Our work was motivated by a probabilistic electricity load forecasting application, used here to demonstrate the proposed approach. The methods described here are implemented by the qgam R package, available on the Comprehensive R Archive Network (CRAN)

Direct finite element simulation of turbulent flow for marine based renewable energy

In this article we present a computational framework for simulation of turbulent flow in marine based renewable energy applications. In particular, we focus on floating structures and rotating turbines. This work is an extension to multiphase turbulent flow, of our existing framework of residual based turbulence modeling for single phase turbulent incompressible flow. We illustrate the framework in four examples: a regular wave test where we compare against an exact solution, the standard MARIN wave impact benchmark with experimental validation data, a vertical axis turbine with complex geometry from an existing turbine, and finally a prototype simulation of decay test in a coupled moving boundary rigid-body and two-phase fluid simulation.IEA-OES Task 1

Comparing ischaemic stroke in six European countries. The EuroHOPE register study.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The incidence of hospitalizations, treatment and case fatality of ischaemic stroke were assessed utilizing a comprehensive multinational database to attempt to compare the healthcare systems in six European countries, aiming also to identify the limitations and make suggestions for future improvements in the between-country comparisons. METHODS: National registers of hospital discharges for ischaemic stroke identified by International Classification of Diseases codes 433-434 (ICD-9) and code I63 (ICD-10), medication purchases and mortality were linked at the patient level in each of the participating countries and regions: Finland, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, Scotland and Sweden. Patients with an index admission in 2007 were followed for 1 year. RESULTS: In all, 64 170 patients with a disease code for ischaemic stroke were identified. The number of patients registered per 100 000 European standard population ranged from 77 in Scotland to 407 in Hungary. Large differences were observed in medication use. The age- and sex-adjusted all-cause case fatality amongst hospitalized patients at 1 year from stroke was highest in Hungary at 31.0% (95% confidence interval 30.5-31.5). Regional differences in age- and sex-adjusted 1-year case fatality within countries were largest in Hungary (range 23.6%-37.6%) and smallest in the Netherlands (20.5%-27.3%). CONCLUSIONS: It is feasible to link population-wide register data amongst European countries to describe incidence of hospitalizations, treatment patterns and case fatality of ischaemic stroke on a national level. However, the coverage and validity of administrative register data for ischaemic stroke should be developed further, and population-based and clinical stroke registers should be created to allow better control of case mix

Human remains from Arma di Nasino (Liguria) provide novel insights into the paleoecology of early Holocene foragers in northwestern Italy

We report the discovery and analysis of new Mesolithic human remains-dated to ca. 10,200-9000 cal. BP-from Arma di Nasino in Liguria, northwestern Italy, an area rich in Upper Paleolithic and Neolithic attestations, but for which little information on Early Holocene occupation was available. The multi-proxy isotopic profile of the two individuals reveals that-despite the proximity of the site to the Mediterranean seashore and the use of shellfish as decorative elements in burials-the ecology of these foragers was based on the exploitation of high-altitude resources, presumably in the nearby western Alps. This constitutes the first direct evidence in northwestern Italy of a significant ecological shift towards higher altitudes following deglaciation, especially when compared to isotopic data of the Late Pleistocene hunter-gatherers from the nearby site of Arene Candide Cave, who exploited terrestrial resources nearer to the coast and at lower altitudes. While the biochemistry of Nasino's skeletal assemblage revealed new details on Early Holocene lifeways in the area, the osteobiography of one individual offers glimpses into the life experience of a specific female forager, depicting a scenario of early skeletal trauma, developmental disturbances, long-term impairments, and resilience amongst the last European hunter-gatherers

Corrigendum:“Dating the funerary use of caves in Liguria (northwestern Italy) from the Neolithic to historic times. Results from a large-scale AMS campaign on human skeletal series” [Quat. Int. 536 (2020) 30–44] (Quaternary International (2020) 536 (30–44), (S1040618219308857), (10.1016/j.quaint.2019.11.034))

In Appendix 1, and Supplementary Information Tables S1 and S2, the age class of individual [AC6726.4 (Prob. AC EIV BB)/ACN 030] is indicated as “adolescent”; the correct age class is “adult”. In Appendix 1, and Supplementary Information Tables S1 and S2, the age class of individual [AC V BB/ACN 031] is indicated as “adult”; the correct age class is “adolescent”, as also discussed in the text. The mistake does not change the results in Table 4

Dating the funerary use of caves in Liguria (northwestern Italy) from the Neolithic to historic times:Results from a large-scale AMS campaign on human skeletal series

The multidisciplinary research team of this new project aimed at the chronological, anthropological and funerary behavior characterization of the skeletal remains unearthed from various caves in western Liguria (northwestern Italy) between the mid-1800s and the 1990s. Most of the burials and scattered bone assemblages were excavated prior to the development of modern stratigraphic methods, or come from disturbed contexts, often resulting in a vague chrono-cultural attribution. We present here the results of a systematic dating project that produced 130 new AMS dates on human bone samples (documented burials or individuals from scattered remains) from sixteen Ligurian caves, including most of the skeletal series from renowned sites such as Arene Candide Cave and Grotta Pollera. Results highlighted the funerary use of these caves from the last quarter of the sixth millennium BCE to the Common Era, with the majority of results clustering in the first half of the fifth millennium BCE. These dates allow for an initial assessment of patterns in Neolithic mortuary use of Ligurian caves, and aided in particular the characterization of funerary practices during the Square Mouthed Pottery culture

The C-Terminal Domain of the Arabinosyltransferase Mycobacterium tuberculosis EmbC Is a Lectin-Like Carbohydrate Binding Module

The D-arabinan-containing polymers arabinogalactan (AG) and lipoarabinomannan (LAM) are essential components of the unique cell envelope of the pathogen Mycobacterium tuberculosis. Biosynthesis of AG and LAM involves a series of membrane-embedded arabinofuranosyl (Araf) transferases whose structures are largely uncharacterised, despite the fact that several of them are pharmacological targets of ethambutol, a frontline drug in tuberculosis therapy. Herein, we present the crystal structure of the C-terminal hydrophilic domain of the ethambutol-sensitive Araf transferase M. tuberculosis EmbC, which is essential for LAM synthesis. The structure of the C-terminal domain of EmbC (EmbCCT) encompasses two sub-domains of different folds, of which subdomain II shows distinct similarity to lectin-like carbohydrate-binding modules (CBM). Co-crystallisation with a cell wall-derived di-arabinoside acceptor analogue and structural comparison with ligand-bound CBMs suggest that EmbCCT contains two separate carbohydrate binding sites, associated with subdomains I and II, respectively. Single-residue substitution of conserved tryptophan residues (Trp868, Trp985) at these respective sites inhibited EmbC-catalysed extension of LAM. The same substitutions differentially abrogated binding of di- and penta-arabinofuranoside acceptor analogues to EmbCCT, linking the loss of activity to compromised acceptor substrate binding, indicating the presence of two separate carbohydrate binding sites, and demonstrating that subdomain II indeed functions as a carbohydrate-binding module. This work provides the first step towards unravelling the structure and function of a GT-C-type glycosyltransferase that is essential in M. tuberculosis. Author Summary Top Tuberculosis (TB), an infectious disease caused by the bacillus Mycobacterium tuberculosis, burdens large swaths of the world population. Treatment of active TB typically requires administration of an antibiotic cocktail over several months that includes the drug ethambutol. This front line compound inhibits a set of arabinosyltransferase enzymes, called EmbA, EmbB and EmbC, which are critical for the synthesis of arabinan, a vital polysaccharide in the pathogen's unique cell envelope. How precisely ethambutol inhibits arabinosyltransferase activity is not clear, in part because structural information of its pharmacological targets has been elusive. Here, we report the high-resolution structure of the C-terminal domain of the ethambutol-target EmbC, a 390-amino acid fragment responsible for acceptor substrate recognition. Combining the X-ray crystallographic analysis with structural comparisons, site-directed mutagenesis, activity and ligand binding assays, we identified two regions in the C-terminal domain of EmbC that are capable of binding acceptor substrate mimics and are critical for activity of the full-length enzyme. Our results begin to define structure-function relationships in a family of structurally uncharacterised membrane-embedded glycosyltransferases, which are an important target for tuberculosis therapy

Adaptive fast multipole methods on the GPU

We present a highly general implementation of fast multipole methods on graphics processing units (GPUs). Our two-dimensional double precision code features an asymmetric type of adaptive space discretization leading to a particularly elegant and flexible implementation. All steps of the multipole algorithm are efficiently performed on the GPU, including the initial phase which assembles the topological information of the input data. Through careful timing experiments we investigate the effects of the various peculiarities of the GPU architecture.Comment: Software available at http://user.it.uu.se/~stefane/freeware.htm

Anthropic resource exploitation and use of the territory at the onset of social complexity in the Neolithic-Chalcolithic Western Pyrenees: a multi-isotope approach

Carbon (δ13C) and nitrogen (δ15N) stable isotope analyses from bone collagen provide information about the dietary protein input, while strontium isotopes (87Sr/86Sr) from tooth enamel give us data about provenance and potential territorial mobility of past populations. To date, isotopic results on the prehistory of the Western Pyrenees are scarce. In this article, we report human and faunal values of the mentioned isotopes from the Early-Middle Neolithic site of Fuente Hoz (Anuntzeta) and the Late Neolithic/Early Chalcolithic site of Kurtzebide (Letona, Zigoitia). The main objectives of this work are to analyze the dietary and territorial mobility patterns of these populations. Furthermore, as an additional aim, we will try to discuss social ranking based on the isotope data and existing literature on this topic in the region of study. Our results show that, based on the bioavailable Sr values, both purported local and non-local humans were buried together at the sites. Additionally, they suggest similar resource consumption based on C3 terrestrial resources (i.e. ovicaprids, bovids, and suids) as the main part of the protein input. Overall, this study sheds light on how individuals from different backgrounds were still buried together and shared the same dietary lifestyle at a time in the Prehistory of Iberia when social complexities started to appear