The Search for Invariance: Repeated Positive Testing Serves the Goals of Causal Learning

Positive testing is characteristic of exploratory behavior, yet it seems to be at odds with the aim of information seeking. After all, repeated demonstrations of one’s current hypothesis often produce the same evidence and fail to distinguish it from potential alternatives. Research on the development of scientific reasoning and adult rule learning have both documented and attempted to explain this behavior. The current chapter reviews this prior work and introduces a novel theoretical account—the Search for Invariance (SI) hypothesis—which suggests that producing multiple positive examples serves the goals of causal learning. This hypothesis draws on the interventionist framework of causal reasoning, which suggests that causal learners are concerned with the invariance of candidate hypotheses. In a probabilistic and interdependent causal world, our primary goal is to determine whether, and in what contexts, our causal hypotheses provide accurate foundations for inference and intervention—not to disconfirm their alternatives. By recognizing the central role of invariance in causal learning, the phenomenon of positive testing may be reinterpreted as a rational information-seeking strategy

Do female association preferences predict the likelihood of reproduction?

Sexual selection acting on male traits through female mate choice is commonly inferred from female association preferences in dichotomous mate choice experiments. However, there are surprisingly few empirical demonstrations that such association preferences predict the likelihood of females reproducing with a particular male. This information is essential to confirm association preferences as good predictors of mate choice. We used green swordtails (<i>Xiphophorus helleri</i>) to test whether association preferences predict the likelihood of a female reproducing with a male. Females were tested for a preference for long- or short-sworded males in a standard dichotomous choice experiment and then allowed free access to either their preferred or non-preferred male. If females subsequently failed to produce fry, they were provided a second unfamiliar male with similar sword length to the first male. Females were more likely to reproduce with preferred than non-preferred males, but for those that reproduced, neither the status (preferred/non-preferred) nor the sword length (long/short) of the male had an effect on brood size or relative investment in growth by the female. There was no overall preference based on sword length in this study, but male sword length did affect likelihood of reproduction, with females more likely to reproduce with long- than short-sworded males (independent of preference for such males in earlier choice tests). These results suggest that female association preferences are good indicators of female mate choice but that ornament characteristics of the male are also important

Mechanism for microbial population collapse in a fluctuating resource environment.

Managing trade-offs through gene regulation is believed to confer resilience to a microbial community in a fluctuating resource environment. To investigate this hypothesis, we imposed a fluctuating environment that required the sulfate-reduce

Congenital Hypothyroidism Long‐Term Follow‐up Project: Navigating the Rough Waters of a Multi‐Center, Multi‐State Public Health Project

The Region 4 Midwest Genetics Collaborative, made up of seven regional states (Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, and Wisconsin), brought together pediatric endocrinologists, state laboratory experts, public health follow‐up specialists, and parents of children with congenital hypothyroidism (CH) to identify the three‐year follow‐up management and education patterns of primary care clinicians and pediatric endocrinologists in the care of children diagnosed with CH by state newborn screening (NBS) programs. Among a number of challenges, each state had different NBS methods, data systems, public health laws, and institutional review board (IRB) requirements. Furthermore, the diagnosis of CH was complicated by the timing of the NBS sample, the gestational age, weight, and co‐morbidities at delivery. There were 409 children with CH identified through NBS in 2007 in the seven state region. The clinician of record and the parents of these children were invited to participate in a voluntary survey. Approximately 64 % of clinician surveys were collected with responses to questions relating to treatment, monitoring practices, educational resources, genetic counseling, and services provided to children with confirmed CH and their families. Nearly one‐quarter (24 %) of parents surveyed responded to questions relating to treatment, education, genetic counseling, resources, and services they received or would like to receive. De‐identified data from six of the seven states were compiled for analysis, with one state being unable to obtain IRB approval within the study timeline. The data from this collaborative effort will improve state follow‐up programs and aid in developing three‐year follow‐up guidelines for children diagnosed with CH. To aid in the facilitation of similar public health studies, this manuscript highlights the challenges faced, and focuses on the pathway to a successful multi‐state public health endeavor.Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/147153/1/jgc40464.pd

Extreme behavioural shifts by baboons exploiting risky, resource-rich, human-modified environments

Abstract A range of species exploit anthropogenic food resources in behaviour known as ‘raiding’. Such behavioural flexibility is considered a central component of a species’ ability to cope with human-induced environmental changes. Here, we study the behavioural processes by which raiding male chacma baboons (Papio ursinus) exploit the opportunities and mitigate the risks presented by raiding in the suburbs of Cape Town, South Africa. Ecological sampling and interviews conducted with ‘rangers’ (employed to manage the baboons’ space use) revealed that baboons are at risk of being herded out of urban spaces that contain high-energy anthropogenic food sources. Baboon-attached motion/GPS tracking collars showed that raiding male baboons spent almost all of their time at the urban edge, engaging in short, high-activity forays into the urban space. Moreover, activity levels were increased where the likelihood of deterrence by rangers was greater. Overall, these raiding baboons display a time-activity balance that is drastically altered in comparison to individuals living in more remote regions. We suggest our methods can be used to obtain precise estimates of management impact for this and other species in conflict with people

The catalytic role of uranyl in formation of polycatechol complexes

To better understand the association of contaminant uranium with natural organic matter (NOM) and the fate of uranium in ground water, spectroscopic studies of uranium complexation with catechol were conducted. Catechol provides a model for ubiquitous functional groups present in NOM. Liquid samples were analyzed using Raman, FTIR, and UV-Vis spectroscopy. Catechol was found to polymerize in presence of uranyl ions. Polymerization in presence of uranyl was compared to reactions in the presence of molybdate, another oxyion, and self polymerization of catechol at high pH. The effect of time and dissolved oxygen were also studied. It was found that oxygen was required for self-polymerization at elevated pH. The potential formation of phenoxy radicals as well as quinones was monitored. The benzene ring was found to be intact after polymerization. No evidence for formation of ether bonds was found, suggesting polymerization was due to formation of C-C bonds between catechol ligands. Uranyl was found to form outer sphere complexes with catechol at initial stages but over time (six months) polycatechol complexes were formed and precipitated from solution (forming humic-like material) while uranyl ions remained in solution. Our studies show that uranyl acts as a catalyst in catechol-polymerization

Design and development of a complex narrative intervention delivered by text messages to reduce binge drinking among socially disadvantaged men

Background: Socially disadvantaged men are at high risk of suffering from alcohol-related harm. Disadvantaged groups are less likely to engage with health promotion. There is a need for interventions that reach large numbers at low cost and which promote high levels of engagement with the behaviour change process. The aim of this study was to design a theoretically and empirically based text message intervention to reduce binge drinking by socially disadvantaged men. Results: Following MRC guidance, the intervention was developed in four stages. Stage 1 developed a detailed behaviour change strategy based on existing literature and theory from several areas. These included the psychological theory that would underpin the intervention, alcohol brief interventions, text message interventions, effective behaviour change techniques, narratives in behaviour change interventions and communication theory. In addition, formative research was carried out. A logic model was developed to depict the pathways between intervention inputs, processes and outcomes for behaviour change. Stage 2 created a narrative which illustrated and modelled key steps in the strategy. Stage 3 rendered the intervention into a series of text messages and ensured that appropriate behavioural change techniques were incorporated. Stage 4 revised the messages to ensure comprehensive coverage of the behaviour change strategy and coherence of the narrative. It also piloted the intervention and made final revisions to it. Conclusions: The structured, systematic approach to design created a narrative intervention which had a strong theoretical and empirical basis. The use of a narrative helped make the intervention realistic and allowed key behaviour change techniques to be modelled by characters. The narrative was intended to promote engagement with the intervention. The intervention was rendered into a series of short text messages, and subsequent piloting showed they were acceptable in the target group. Delivery of an intervention by text message offers a low-cost, low-demand method that can reach large numbers of people. This approach provides a framework for the design of behaviour change interventions which could be used for interventions to tackle other health behaviours

Stratification of biological therapies by pathobiology in biologic-naive patients with rheumatoid arthritis (STRAP and STRAP-EU): two parallel, open-label, biopsy-driven, randomised trials

Background: Despite highly effective targeted therapies for rheumatoid arthritis, about 40% of patients respond poorly, and predictive biomarkers for treatment choices are lacking. We did a biopsy-driven trial to compare the response to rituximab, etanercept, and tocilizumab in biologic-naive patients with rheumatoid arthritis stratified for synovial B cell status. Methods: STRAP and STRAP-EU were two parallel, open-label, biopsy-driven, stratified, randomised, phase 3 trials done across 26 university centres in the UK and Europe. Biologic-naive patients aged 18 years or older with rheumatoid arthritis based on American College of Rheumatology (ACR)–European League Against Rheumatism classification criteria and an inadequate response to conventional synthetic disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (DMARDs) were included. Following ultrasound-guided synovial biopsy, patients were classified as B cell poor or B cell rich according to synovial B cell signatures and randomly assigned (1:1:1) to intravenous rituximab (1000 mg at week 0 and week 2), subcutaneous tocilizumab (162 mg per week), or subcutaneous etanercept (50 mg per week). The primary outcome was the 16-week ACR20 response in the B cell-poor, intention-to-treat population (defined as all randomly assigned patients), with data pooled from the two trials, comparing etanercept and tocilizumab (grouped) versus rituximab. Safety was assessed in all patients who received at least one dose of study drug. These trials are registered with the EU Clinical Trials Register, 2014-003529-16 (STRAP) and 2017-004079-30 (STRAP-EU). Findings: Between June 8, 2015, and July 4, 2019, 226 patients were randomly assigned to etanercept (n=73), tocilizumab (n=74), and rituximab (n=79). Three patients (one in each group) were excluded after randomisation because they received parenteral steroids in the 4 weeks before recruitment. 168 (75%) of 223 patients in the intention-to-treat population were women and 170 (76%) were White. In the B cell-poor population, ACR20 response at 16 weeks (primary endpoint) showed no significant differences between etanercept and tocilizumab grouped together and rituximab (46 [60%] of 77 patients vs 26 [59%] of 44; odds ratio 1·02 [95% CI 0·47–2·17], p=0·97). No differences were observed for adverse events, including serious adverse events, which occurred in six (6%) of 102 patients in the rituximab group, nine (6%) of 108 patients in the etanercept group, and three (4%) of 73 patients in the tocilizumab group (p=0·53). Interpretation: In this biologic-naive population of patients with rheumatoid arthrtitis, the dichotomic classification into synovial B cell poor versus rich did not predict treatment response to B cell depletion with rituximab compared with alternative treatment strategies. However, the lack of response to rituximab in patients with a pauci-immune pathotype and the higher risk of structural damage progression in B cell-rich patients treated with rituximab warrant further investigations into the ability of synovial tissue analyses to inform disease pathogenesis and treatment response. Funding: UK Medical Research Council and Versus Arthritis

Efficacy of the mRNA-1273 SARS-CoV-2 vaccine at completion of blinded phase

BACKGROUND At interim analysis in a phase 3, observer-blinded, placebo-controlled clinical trial, the mRNA-1273 vaccine showed 94.1% efficacy in preventing coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19). After emergency use of the vaccine was authorized, the protocol was amended to include an open-label phase. Final analyses of efficacy and safety data from the blinded phase of the trial are reported. METHODS We enrolled volunteers who were at high risk for Covid-19 or its complications; participants were randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio to receive two intramuscular injections of mRNA-1273 (100 μg) or placebo, 28 days apart, at 99 centers across the United States. The primary end point was prevention of Covid-19 illness with onset at least 14 days after the second injection in participants who had not previously been infected with the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The data cutoff date was March 26, 2021. RESULTS The trial enrolled 30,415 participants; 15,209 were assigned to receive the mRNA-1273 vaccine, and 15,206 to receive placebo. More than 96% of participants received both injections, 2.3% had evidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection at baseline, and the median follow-up was 5.3 months in the blinded phase. Vaccine efficacy in preventing Covid-19 illness was 93.2% (95% confidence interval [CI], 91.0 to 94.8), with 55 confirmed cases in the mRNA-1273 group (9.6 per 1000 person-years; 95% CI, 7.2 to 12.5) and 744 in the placebo group (136.6 per 1000 person-years; 95% CI, 127.0 to 146.8). The efficacy in preventing severe disease was 98.2% (95% CI, 92.8 to 99.6), with 2 cases in the mRNA-1273 group and 106 in the placebo group, and the efficacy in preventing asymptomatic infection starting 14 days after the second injection was 63.0% (95% CI, 56.6 to 68.5), with 214 cases in the mRNA-1273 group and 498 in the placebo group. Vaccine efficacy was consistent across ethnic and racial groups, age groups, and participants with coexisting conditions. No safety concerns were identified. CONCLUSIONS The mRNA-1273 vaccine continued to be efficacious in preventing Covid-19 illness and severe disease at more than 5 months, with an acceptable safety profile, and protection against asymptomatic infection was observed