El Poder de los Gobernadores. Conceptualización y Análisis Comparado de Argentina y Brasil

Los gobernadores son actores políticos relevantes en la mayoría de las democracias federales e incluso en algunos países unitarios. A pesar de esto, todavía tenemos una limitada comprensión conceptual y aún más escasas medidas para comparar su poder. Discuto la literatura de Estados Unidos y comparada sobre el poder de los gobernadores, ajusto una definición para examinar tendencias recientes en el poder de los gobernadores en Argentina y Brasil, y descubro una fuerte variación entre los dos casos a lo largo del tiempo. Utilizando datos originales, también proporciono evidencia empírica sobre los determinantes del poder de los gobernadores relacionados con el uso diferenciado de fondos públicos. Sostengo que la estabilidad del poder de los gobernadores en Argentina está asociada con el uso del empleo público para conseguir apoyo político, que es relativamente estable en el tiempo. En Brasil, este intercambio es más inestable y fundamentalmente basado en la inversión social.Fil: Gonzalez, Lucas Isaac. Universidad Nacional de San Martín. Escuela de Política y Gobierno; Argentina. Pontificia Universidad Católica Argentina "Santa María de los Buenos Aires". Facultad de Ciencias Sociales, Políticas y de la Comunicación. Instituto de Ciencias Políticas; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentin

Federal transfers, interregional inequality and redistribution in Latin America

Esta investigación analiza el impacto de las transferencias federales y del gasto subnacional en el desarrollo humano y la equidad interregional. Los datos de transferencias y gasto subnacional en Argentina, Brasil, México, Chile y Colombia, entre 1983-2011, indican que el poder redistributivo del gobierno central está asociado con mejoras en la equidad interregional, pero no con mejores valores de desarrollo humano, exactamente al contrario de lo que sucede con el gasto social subnacional.This work analyzes the impact of federal transfers and subnational expenditure in human development and interregional equity. Data on federal transfers and subnational spending in Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, Chile, and Colombia, between 1983 and 2011, indicate that the redistributive power of the central government is statistically associated with improvements in interregional equity but not with better values in the human development index. Exactly the opposite results are found for subnational social spending.Fil: Gonzalez, Lucas Isaac. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de San Martín. Escuela de Política y Gobierno; Argentina. Pontificia Universidad Católica Argentina "Santa María de los Buenos Aires". Facultad de Ciencias Sociales, Políticas y de la Comunicación. Instituto de Ciencias Políticas; Argentin

Who Distributes? Presidents, Congress, Governors, and the Politics of Distribution in Argentina and Brazil

What is the role of presidents in the politics of distribution in developing democracies? To what extent do other political actors, such as legislators and governors, influence federal distribution? This paper studies the main factors that affect distributive politics in Argentina and Brazil, two highly unequal presidential federations in Latin America. The focus is on funds with high redistributive impact and over which the central government has large discretion: those for public infrastructure. Using original data on federal infrastructure spending for the 24 provinces in Argentina and the 27 states in Brazil for the period 1999-2011, we show that the distribution of infrastructure funds is fundamentally determined by executive politics. Despite this, our empirical findings indicate there is large variation between the two cases in the relevance of the partisan links between presidents and governors and the influence of congress and its committees. Furthermore, we observe that elections are not relevant in explaining distribution in either of the two cases and that presidents are mostly motivated by political considerations and that programmatic factors, such as equity and efficiency criteria, play a secondary role, especially in Argentina. We discuss some possible reasons for these results and their implications for the broader comparative debate on distributive politics.Fil: Gonzalez, Lucas Isaac. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de San Martín. Escuela de Política y Gobierno; Argentina. Pontificia Universidad Católica Argentina "Santa María de los Buenos Aires". Facultad de Ciencias Sociales, Políticas y de la Comunicación. Instituto de Ciencias Políticas; ArgentinaFil: Mamone, Miguel Ignacio. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Pontificia Universidad Católica Argentina "Santa María de los Buenos Aires". Facultad de Ciencias Sociales, Políticas y de la Comunicación. Instituto de Ciencias Políticas; Argentin

Electoral cycle, presidential popularity, and the distribution of federal funds in Argentina

Este artículo estudia cuáles son los principales factores que influyen en la asignación de fondos federales a las provincias en Argentina entre 1999 y 2009. La contribución principal es que incorpora el ciclo electoral junto con la popularidad presidencial en el análisis. El argumento principal es que en los años electorales, los presidentes tienden a distribuir más fondos a las provincias más grandes y más pobladas (llamo a esto distribución electoral). En ellas está la mayor cantidad de votantes. Pero en años no electorales, los presidentes distribuyen a las provincias del interior, menos pobladas, menos ricas, pero más sobrerrepresentadas. Esto es clave para asegurar apoyo legislativo y gobernabilidad (llamo a esto distribución de gobierno). Los clivajes estructurales entre provincias ricas y pobres también se articulan con la popularidad presidencial para influir en la distribución de fondos federales. Los presidentes electoralmente fuertes y con apoyo en la opinión pública tienden a aumentar las transferencias a los distritos más pobres y a reducir fondos a los distritos más ricos. Invertir en las provincias más pobres es más eficiente, los gobernadores de estos distritos tienden a apoyar a los presidentes redistributivos y además son rivales políticos más débiles que los gobernadores de los distritos más grandes y ricos. Por el contrario, los presidentes más débiles y con menos apoyo en la opinión pública tienen menos capacidad de resistir las presiones de los gobernadores de los distritos más grandes y ricos. El artículo discute estos resultados, los compara con los de argumentos competitivos (vinculados al rol de las alianzas partidarias, del Congreso y de factores programáticos) y explora las implicancias para el debate comparativo.This article analyzes the determinants of the distribution of non-earmarked federal funds to the Argentine provinces between 1999 and 2009. The main contribution is that it brings the electoral cycle together with presidential popularity into the analysis. The main argument is that during election years, presidents tend to distribute more funds to the largest and most populated provinces (I call this electoral distribution). These districts have the largest number of voters. But in non-election years, presidents distribute to less populated, poorer, but overrepresented developing provinces. This is crucial to ensure legislative support (I call this governing distribution). Structural cleavages between rich and poor provinces also overlap with the president’s popularity to influence the distribution of federal funds. Electorally strong and popular presidents tend to increase transfers to developing districts and reduce allocations to richer districts. Investing in developing provinces is more efficient, governors from these districts tend to support redistributive presidents, and they are weaker political challengers than governors from richer districts. In contrast, weaker presidents are less capable of resisting pressures from governors from larger and richer districts. This article discusses the main findings, compares them with alternative claims (related to the role of partisan alliances, Congress, and programmatic factors), and explores some implications for the comparative debate.Fil: Gonzalez, Lucas Isaac. Universidad Nacional de San Martín. Escuela de Política y Gobierno; Argentina. Pontificia Universidad Católica Argentina "Santa María de los Buenos Aires"; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentin

Theory, Method and Commitment: Some Reflections on the Legacy of Guillermo O’Donnell

Este artículo resalta algunas contribuciones de O´Donnell para la disciplina en general y para los estudiantes de ciencia política en particular. Entre ellas, destaca la necesidad de focalizar las preguntas de nuestras investigaciones en problemas sustantivos, relevantes; la centralidad de la teoría para responder a ellas y para comprender un caso o pocos casos; y el rol de las herramientas, que no deben determinar las preguntas ni las respuestas, sino que deben ser  elementos que ayuden a llegar a ellas.This article highlights some of O’Donnell’s contributions to the discipline, in general, and to political science students, in particular. Among them, it stresses the need to focus on substantive and relevant research questions, the centrality of theory to answer them and to understand a case or a few cases, and the role of tools in political science, which should not determine our questions or answers, but are elements that should help us getting them.Fil: Gonzalez, Lucas Isaac. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de San Martín. Escuela de Política y Gobierno; Argentina. Pontificia Universidad Católica Argentina "Santa María de los Buenos Aires". Facultad de Ciencias Sociales, Políticas y de la Comunicación. Instituto de Ciencias Políticas; Argentin

Governing a Pandemic: Assessing the role of collaboration on Latin American responses to the COVID-19 crisis

How do governments address complex, cross-sectoral problems, like the COVID-19 pandemic? Why were some Latin American countries more successful at containing the pandemic´s most devastating health outcomes? We argue that national governments that were more collaborative in their response to COVID-19 were more successful in reducing death rates. Our original dataset offers a novel attempt to operationalise collaborative governance (CG). We undertake simple statistical tests to measure the relationship between CG and COVID-19-related mortality rates in Latin America. We then choose three case studies to assess whether collaboration was meaningful in practice. Initial evidence suggests governments that pursued CG were more effective at containing mortality rates early on in the pandemic. The collaboration helped to foster cooperation over resources; buy time to prepare for a potential case surge; and produce a unified message regarding what citizens should do to prevent viral spread.Fil: Cyr, Jennifer. Universidad Torcuato Di Tella. Departamento de Ciencia Política y Estudios Internacionales; ArgentinaFil: Bianchi, Matías Federico. University of Arizona; Estados Unidos. University of Arizona; Estados UnidosFil: Gonzalez, Lucas Isaac. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de San Martín; ArgentinaFil: Perini, Antonella. University of Oxford; Reino Unid

States, Alliances and Subnational Inequality: Two Argentine Provinces in Comparative Perspective, 2003-2015

La desigualdad se distribuye de manera desigual en el territorio y los promedios nacionales oscurecen esta variación. Este estudio investiga qué factores a nivel subnacional pueden ayudar a explicar las diferencias en la desigualdad entre distritos. El trabajo analiza de que manera las coaliciones subnacionales resisten o apoyan políticas redistributivas de los gobiernos nacionales. El principal argumento es que el tipo de alianza gobernante nacional (regresiva o progresiva), incide en el nivel de desigualdad provincial, pero mediada por el tipo de coalición subnacional que apoye o resista a esa política nacional. Este argumento es examinado empíricamente a través del análisis de la configuración de las alianzas distributivas nacionales y subnacionales en dos provincias argentinas y en relación a las regulaciones de derechos laborales en el sector agrícola entre 2003 y 2015.Inequality is unevenly distributed across the territory and national averages obscure this variation. This study investigates which subnational level factors can help explain differences in inequality among districts. It analyzes how subnational coalitions resist or support national governments’ redistributive policies. The main argument is that the type of national governing alliance (regressive or progressive) affects the level of provincial inequality, but mediated by the type of subnational coalition that supports or resists that national policy. This work empirically examines this claim analyzing the configurations of the national and subnational distributive alliances in two Argentine provinces and in relation to labor rights regulations in the agricultural sector between 2003 and 2015.Fil: Gonzalez, Lucas Isaac. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de San Martín. Escuela de Política y Gobierno; Argentina. Pontificia Universidad Católica Argentina "Santa María de los Buenos Aires". Facultad de Ciencias Sociales, Políticas y de la Comunicación. Instituto de Ciencias Políticas; ArgentinaFil: Nazareno, Marcelo Gabriel. Universidad Católica de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Politicas y Relaciones Internacionales; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba; Argentin

CNVassoc: Association analysis of CNV data using R

Background: Copy number variants (CNV) are a potentially important component of the genetic contribution to risk of common complex diseases. Analysis of the association between CNVs and disease requires that uncertainty in CNV copy-number calls, which can be substantial, be taken into account; failure to consider this uncertainty can lead to biased results. Therefore, there is a need to develop and use appropriate statistical tools. To address this issue, we have developed CNVassoc, an R package for carrying out association analysis of common copy number variants in population-based studies. This package includes functions for testing for association with different classes of response variables (e.g. class status, censored data, counts) under a series of study designs (case-control, cohort, etc) and inheritance models, adjusting for covariates. The package includes functions for inferring copy number (CNV genotype calling), but can also accept copy number data generated by other algorithms (e.g. CANARY, CGHcall, IMPUTE). Results: Here we present a new R package, CNVassoc, that can deal with different types of CNV arising from different platforms such as MLPA o aCGH. Through a real data example we illustrate that our method is able to incorporate uncertainty in the association process. We also show how our package can also be useful when analyzing imputed data when analyzing imputed SNPs. Through a simulation study we show that CNVassoc outperforms CNVtools in terms of computing time as well as in convergence failure rate. Conclusions: We provide a package that outperforms the existing ones in terms of modelling flexibility, power, convergence rate, ease of covariate adjustment, and requirements for sample size and signal quality. Therefore, we offer CNVassoc as a method for routine use in CNV association studiesThis work has been supported by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (MTM2008-02457 to JRG, BIO2009-12458 to RD-U and statistical genetics network MTM2010-09526-E (subprograma MTM) to JRG, IS, GL and RD-U). GL is supported by the Juan de la Cierva Program of the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation

Increased costs reduce reciprocal helping behaviour of humans in a virtual evacuation experiment

Altruistic behaviour is widespread and highly developed in humans and can also be found in some animal species. It has been suggested that altruistic tendencies can depend on costs, benefits and context. Here, we investigate the changes in the occurrence of helping behaviour in a computer-based experiment that simulates an evacuation from a building exploring the effect of varying the cost to help. Our findings illuminate a number of key mechanistic aspects of human decision-making about whether to help or not. In a novel situation where it is difficult to assess the risks associated with higher costs, we reproduce the finding that increasing costs reduce helping and find that the reduction in the frequency of helping behaviour is gradual rather than a sudden transition for a threshold cost level. Interestingly, younger and male participants were more likely to help. We provide potential explanations for this result relating to the nature of our experiment. Finally, we find no evidence that participants in our experiment plan ahead over two consecutive, inter-dependent helping opportunities when conducting cost-benefit trade-offs in spontaneous decisions. We discuss potential applications of our findings to research into decision-making during evacuations

Wage inequality, segregation by skill and the price of capital in an assignment model

Some pieces of empirical evidence suggest that in the U.S., over the last few decades, (i) wage inequality between-plants has risen much more than wage inequality within-plants and (ii) there has been an increase in the segregation of workers by skill into separate plants. This paper presents a frictionless assignment model in which these two features can be explained simultaneously as the result of the decline in the relative price of capital. Additional implications of the model regarding the skill premium and the dispersion in labor productivity across plants are also consistent with the empirical evidence. [resumen de autor