Bovine mortality: the utility of two data sources for the provision of population-level surveillance intelligence

Introduction: The use of existing data to provide surveillance intelligence is widely advocated but often presents considerable challenges. Two data sources could be used as proxies for the mortality experienced by the Scottish cattle population: deaths recorded in the mandatory register [Cattle Tracing System (CTS)] and fallen stock collections by the National Fallen Stock Company (NSFCo) with a nationwide voluntary membership.Methods: Data for the period 2011–2016 were described and compared to establish their strengths and limitations. Similarities and differences in their temporal, seasonal and spatial patterns were examined overall, at postcode area level and for different age groups. Temporal aberration detection algorithms (TADA) were fitted.Results: Broadly, similar patterns were observed in the two datasets; however, there were some notable differences. The observed seasonal, annual and spatial patterns match expectations, given knowledge of Scottish cattle production systems. The registry data provide more comprehensive coverage of all areas of Scotland, while collections data provide a more comprehensive measure of the mortality experienced in 0–1-month-old calves.Discussion: Consequently, estimates of early calf mortality and their impact on the livestock sector made using CTS, or successor registers, will be under-estimates. This may apply to other registry-based systems. Fitted TADA detected points of deviations from expected norms some of which coincided in the two datasets; one with a known external event that caused increased mortality. We have demonstrated that both data sources do have the potential to be utilized to provide measures of mortality in the Scottish cattle population that could inform surveillance activities. While neither is perfect, they are complementary. Each has strengths and weaknesses, so ideally, a system where they are analyzed and interpreted in parallel would optimize the information obtained for surveillance purposes for epidemiologists, risk managers, animal health policy-makers and the wider livestock industry sector. This study provides a foundation on which to build an operational system. Further development will require improvements in the timeliness of data availability and further investment of resources

Export Activity, R&D Investment And Foreign Ownership: Does It Matter For Productivity?

Purpose: The paper examines the impact of export activity on productivity and how this effect is moderated by R&D investment and foreign ownership. Design/methodology/approach: A time-lag effect is taken into account when examining the proposed model. Data are collected from the Annual Industrial Survey of the National Bureau of Statistics of China. A dataset containing 117,340 firms across the sample period (2001-2007) are used to test the hypotheses. Findings: The results indicate that while R&D investment plays a significant role in strengthening the positive effect of levels of export activity on a firm’s productivity, foreign ownership surprisingly has a negative moderating role. Originality/value: Scholarly interest in the links between export activity and productivity is on the rise. However, the bulk of research has been focused on understanding the effects of export activity on productivity at the country or industry level. Little has been done at the firm-level. Another gap in the literature is that the mechanism through which the impact of export activity can be leveraged to enhance the firm’s productivity has been largely ignored. To address these issues, the study adopts the learning-by-exporting theory to examine the relationship between export and productivity at the firm-level and how R&D investment and foreign ownership may explain how learning can be leveraged to enhance the firm’s productivity. Finally, these relationships are examined in the context of firms from an emerging market, China, which is especially relevant for the learning-by-exporting argument used in this study

The effectiveness of anaerobic digestion in removing estrogens and nonylphenol ethoxylates

This is the post-print version of the final paper published in Journal of Hazardous Materials. The published article is available from the link below. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. Copyright @ 2011 Elsevier B.V.The fate and behaviour of two groups of endocrine disrupting chemicals, steroid estrogens and nonylphenol ethoxylates, have been evaluated during the anaerobic digestion of primary and mixed sewage sludge under mesophilic and thermophilic conditions. Digestion occurred over six retention times, in laboratory scale reactors, treating sludges collected from a sewage treatment works in the United Kingdom. It has been established that sludge concentrations of both groups of compounds demonstrated temporal variations and that concentrations in mixed sludge were influenced by the presence of waste activated sludge as a result of transformations during aerobic treatment. The biodegradation of total steroid estrogens was >50% during primary sludge digestion with lower removals observed for mixed sludge, which reflected bulk organic solids removal efficiencies. The removal of nonylphenol ethoxylates was greater in mixed sludge digestion (>58%) compared with primary sludge digestion and did not reflect bulk organic removal efficiencies. It is apparent that anaerobic digestion reduces the concentrations of these compounds, and would therefore be expected to confer a degree of protection against exposure and transfer of both groups of compounds to the receiving/re-use environment.Thames Water, Yorkshire Water, and EPSRC

A new perspective on building efficient and expressive 3D equivariant graph neural networks

Geometric deep learning enables the encoding of physical symmetries in modeling 3D objects. Despite rapid progress in encoding 3D symmetries into Graph Neural Networks (GNNs), a comprehensive evaluation of the expressiveness of these networks through a local-to-global analysis lacks today. In this paper, we propose a local hierarchy of 3D isomorphism to evaluate the expressive power of equivariant GNNs and investigate the process of representing global geometric information from local patches. Our work leads to two crucial modules for designing expressive and efficient geometric GNNs; namely local substructure encoding (LSE) and frame transition encoding (FTE). To demonstrate the applicability of our theory, we propose LEFTNet which effectively implements these modules and achieves state-of-the-art performance on both scalar-valued and vector-valued molecular property prediction tasks. We further point out the design space for future developments of equivariant graph neural networks. Our codes are available at \url{https://github.com/yuanqidu/LeftNet}

Planetary Migration and Extrasolar Planets in the 2/1 Mean-Motion Resonance

We analyze the possible relationship between the current orbital elements fits of known exoplanets in the 2/1 mean-motion resonance and the expected orbital configuration due to migration. It is found that, as long as the orbital decay was sufficiently slow to be approximated by an adiabatic process, all captured planets should be in apsidal corotations. In other words, they should show a simultaneous libration of both the resonant angle and the difference in longitudes of pericenter. We present a complete set of corotational solutions for the 2/1 commensurability, including previously known solutions and new results. Comparisons with observed exoplanets show that current orbital fits of three known planetary systems in this resonance are either consistent with apsidal corotations (GJ876 and HD82943) or correspond to bodies with uncertain orbits (HD160691). Finally, we discuss the applicability of these results as a test for the planetary migration hypothesis itself. If all future systems in this commensurability are found to be consistent with corotational solutions, then resonance capture of these bodies through planetary migration is a working hypothesis. Conversely, If any planetary pair is found in a different configuration, then either migration did not occur for those bodies, or it took a different form than currently believed.Comment: Submitted to MNRA

Forkhead box K2 modulates epirubicin and paclitaxel sensitivity through FOXO3a in breast cancer

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Pig abattoir inspection data: Can it be used for surveillance purposes?

Statutory recording of carcass lesions at the abattoir may have significant potential as a resource for surveillance of livestock populations. Food Standards Agency (FSA) data in Great Britain are not currently used for surveillance purposes. There are concerns that the sensitivity of detection, combined with other issues, may make the outputs unreliable. In this study we postulate that FSA data could be used for surveillance purposes. To test this we compared FSA data with BPHS (a targeted surveillance system of slaughtered pigs) and laboratory diagnostic scanning surveillance (FarmFile) data, from mid-2008 to mid- 2012, for respiratory conditions and tail bite lesions in pigs at population level. We also evaluated the agreement/correlation at batch level between FSA and BPHS inspections in four field trials during 2013. Temporal trends and regional differences at population level were described and compared using logistic regression models. Population temporal analysis showed an increase in respiratory disease in all datasets but with regional differences. For tail bite, the temporal trend and monthly patterns were completely different between the datasets. The field trials were run in three abattoirs and included 322 batches. Pearson’s correlation and Cohen’s kappa tests were used to assess correlation/agreement between inspections systems. It was moderate to strong for high prevalence conditions but slight for low prevalence conditions. We conclude that there is potential to use FSA data as a component of a surveillance system to monitor temporal trends and regional differences of chosen indicators at population level. At producer level and for low prevalence conditions it needs further improvement. Overall a number of issues still need to be addressed in order to provide the pig industry with the confidence to base their decisions on these FSA inspection data. Similar conclusions, at national level, may apply to other livestock sectors but require further evaluation of the inspection and data collection processes