Auswirkungen einer Entkopplung von Ausgleichszahlungen auf den EU-Getreidemarkt

The proposals for reforming the Common Agricultural Policy within the Mid Term Review of the European Commission fueled the discussion about the future of direct payments to farmers. The EU Commission recommends a decoupling of animal and area payments from the production by granting these direct payments as a payment claim per hectare of eligible farm land. However, introducing area tied payments the intended shift of payments “from the produce to the producer†will not take place, but instead an increased transfer of payments to land owners seems likely. This study therefore analyses the impacts of changing the area payments for grand cultures into person-tied payments on the cereals market of the European Union. For the assessment of impacts homogenous natural locations are clustered. The clustering is based on the regional reference yields for cereals and the share of arable land of total agricultural area in different farm types of the regions. For these production locations total production costs for cereals, oilseeds, and protein crops are calculated as a function of the farm size in order to estimate a cost reduction potential subject to structural changes within agriculture. The main results are the following: 1) Prerequisites are good for the EU to cultivate cereals since a major part of the production is located in highly competitive regions. Thus the EU would remain a net exporter of cereals even producing under world market conditions. However, maintaining the intervention price system while abolishing the set-aside obligation could lead to an uncontrolled increase of cereal stocks. 2) Even on highly competitive locations a significant structural change is required in order to reduce costs and to yield profits without area payments. Depending on the development of the world market prices for cereals the model calculations find a reduction of the work force between 20 000 and 50 000 labor units. 3) Without area payments the profits per hectare and thus the rents would decrease notably and therefore result in a corresponding income loss for land owners. An exclusive granting of payment claims to the producers would in particular affect former farmers, whose rental incomes contribute substantially to their pension plans.Common Agricultural Policy, EU Cereal Market, Decoupling, Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries,

Koppelung agrarökonomischer und hydrologischer Modelle

The objective of the paper is to show the potential of interdisciplinary model networks consisting of agricultural economic and natural science models performing integrated impact assessments of agri-environmental policies. The potentials are exemplified using a coupling of the agricultural sector model RAUMIS with the hydrological models GROWA98 and WEKU in the scope of diffuse agricultural nitrogen immission into waterbodies. A brief classification of applied indicators is given. A key element for policy impact analyses are the relationships between the environmental indicator categories Driving Force, State and Response. The major relationships within this environmental scope as well as the modeling are explained. The presented model network represents a first area wide, regionally differentiated, consistent link-up between the Driving Force indicator “nitrogen balance surplusâ€, the State indicator “nitrogen(nitrate)concentration†and the response indicators. The results show that due to the local characteristics quite different shares of the agricultural nitrogen surplus finally enters the ground and surface waters. Hence, assessing the trade-offs of agri-environmental water protection measures requires an inclusion of natural local characteristics. The integrated consideration of the complex relationships and a comprehensive implementation of local characteristics allows to develop more efficient water pollution control measures.model-based policy consulting, interdisciplinary model networks, agricultural sector model, diffuse agricultural nitrogen immissions, Agricultural and Food Policy, Environmental Economics and Policy,

Approaches for assessing the impacts of the Rural Development Programmes in the context of multiple intervening factors

The Common Monitoring and Evaluation Framework (CMEF) provides a single framework for monitoring and evaluation of all EU Rural Development Programmes (RDP) in the current programming period (2007-2013). It provides continuity from previous periods and constitutes a significant simplification as regards assessment of results and impacts, while at the same time offering greater flexibility to Member States. The European Evaluation Network for Rural Development has published a Working Paper on Approaches for assessing the impacts of the Rural Development Programmes in the context of multiple intervening factors. The aim of the Working Paper is to inspire and to encourage programme evaluators, not to restrict or constrain them. From a methodological perspective, the three common socio-economic impact indicators of the CMEF (economic growth, employment creation, labour productivity) are more closely related than the four common environmental impact indicators (reversing biodiversity decline, maintenance of High Nature Value faming and forestry, improvement in water quality, contribution to combating climate change).assessment of impacts, Rural Development Programmes, policy evaluation, EU policy, Agricultural and Food Policy,

Health Check der EU-Agrarpolitik - Auswirkungen der Beschlüsse

Zusammenfassung: Der Agrarministerrat hat im November 2008 zum Health Check (HC) der Gemeinsamen Agrarpolitik (GAP) eine politische Einigung erzielt. Das Ziel der Studie im Auftrag des Bundesministeriums für Ernährung, Landwirtschaft und Verbraucherschutz ist es, aufbauend auf einer Wirkungsanalyse der Kommissionsvorschläge zum HC, die Konsequenzen der HC-Beschlüsse mit Hilfe des Modellverbundes der vTI-Agrarökonomie sowie mit einer statistischen Auswertung des EU-Testbetriebsnetzes (FADN) im Vergleich zu einer Referenzsituation im Zieljahr 2015 zu untersuchen. In der Referenzsituation wird eine langfristig positive Entwicklung im Agrarbereich unterstellt. Vor diesem Hintergrund wird in Deutschland nach den Modellergebnissen die Milcherzeugung nach Auslaufen der Quotenregelung um 6 % im Vergleich zur Baseline ausgedehnt, infolgedessen der Erzeugerpreis um 8 % sinkt. Die Ausdehnung erfolgt vor allem in Regionen mit hoher Produktionsdichte, so dass sich der regionale Konzentrationsprozess fortsetzt. Die Betriebseinkommen gehen im Bundesdurchschnitt um 4 % zurück; in Milchviehbetrieben um bis zu ca. 11 %. Negative Einkommensentwicklungen der Milchvieh haltenden Betriebe lassen sich abfedern, wenn die eingeführten Milchbegleitmaßnahmen genutzt werden. Das dafür avisierte Mittelvolumen von 300 Mio. Euro aus der zusätzlichen Modulation leistet dazu einen nicht unerheblichen Beitrag. -------------------------------------------------------------------------- ---------------- Summary: In November 2008 the EU agriculture ministers reached a political agreement on the Health Check of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). The goal of the study, on behalf of the German Federal Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Consumer Protection, is to analyse the impacts of the HC agreement with the help of the Modelling Network of agricultural economics institutes of vTI, as well as with a statistical evaluation of the EU-wide Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN) in comparison to a baseline in 2015. In the baseline a positive development in the agricultural sector is assumed in the long run. Against this background according to the model results, milk production will expand by about 6 % in Germany after elimination of the milk quota regulations. This implies a decline in the market price of 8 % against the baseline. The expansion of production occurs particularly in high density production areas, so that the regional concentration process continues. Farm income drops on national average by about 4 %, in dairy farms by about 11 %. The accompanying measures in the dairy sector can help alleviate negative income effects on dairy farms if they are used accordingly. The scheduled funding of 300 million Euro obtained from the additional modulation makes a considerable contribution for this purpose.Health Check, Gemeinsame Agrarpolitik, modellgestützte Politikfolgenabschätzung, Common Agricultural Policy, model-based impact analyses, Agricultural and Food Policy, Q12, Q15, Q18,

Health Check der EU-Agrarpolitik - Auswirkungen der Legislativvorschläge

Zusammenfassung: Die Europäische Kommission hat Mitte Mai 2008 Legislativvorschläge zum Health Check (HC) der Gemeinsamen Agrarpolitik (GAP) vorgelegt. Das Ziel der durchgeführten Studie im Auftrag des Bundesministeriums für Ernährung, Landwirtschaft und Verbraucherschutz ist es, die Wirkungen der HC-Vorschläge mit Hilfe des Modellverbundes der vTI-Agrarökonomie sowie mit einer statistischen Auswertung des EU-Testbetriebsnetzes (FADN) zu analysieren. Die Auswirkungen der HC-Vorschläge wurden in einer komparativ-statischen Betrachtung gegenüber einem Referenzszenario im Zieljahr 2015 analysiert. Nach den Modellberechnungen wird die Milcherzeugung in Deutschland nach Auslaufen der Quotenregelung um 6 % ausgedehnt. Dies impliziert ein Absinken des Marktpreises um 8 %. Die Ausdehnung erfolgt vor allem in Regionen mit hoher Produktionsdichte, so dass sich der regionale Konzentrationsprozess fortsetzt. Die Betriebseinkommen gehen im Bundesdurchschnitt um 5-7 % zurück; in Milchviehbetrieben um ca. 10 %. Höhere Einbußen sind durch die stärkere Kürzung der Direktzahlungen infolge der progressiven Modulation in Großbetrieben zu erwarten. Insgesamt stellen die HC-Vorschläge eine zu bewältigende Herausforderung für die deutsche Landwirtschaft dar, wenn die Möglichkeiten zur Ausgestaltung der Begleitmaßnahmen auf nationaler Ebene genutzt werden. -------------------------------------------------------------------------- ---------------- Summary: In May 2008, the European Commission presented legislative proposals for a Health Check (HC) of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). The goal of the study, on behalf of the German Federal Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Consumer Protection, is to analyse the impacts of the HC proposal with the help of the Modelling Network of agricultural economics institutes of vTI, as well as with a statistical evaluation of the EU-wide Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN). The impacts of the HC proposal are analysed within a comparative-static approach vs. a reference scenario in the target year 2015. According to the model results, milk production will expand by about 6 % in Germany after elimination of the milk quota regulations. This implies a decline in the market price of 8 %. The expansion of production occurs particularly in high density production areas, so that the regional concentration process continues. Farm income drops on average of 5 %, in dairy farms by about 10 %. Significant income losses can be expected for large farms due to above-average reductions in direct payments as a result of progressive modulation. Overall, the HC proposals present a challenge that German agriculture can cope with, if the possibilities for shaping the accompanying measures at the national level are used accordingly.Health Check, Gemeinsame Agrarpolitik, modellgestützte Politikfolgenabschätzung, Common Agricultural Policy, model-based impact analyses, Agricultural and Food Policy, Q12, Q15, Q18,

The Small Unit Cell Reconstructions of SrTiO3 (111)

We analyze the basic structural units of simple reconstructions of the (111) surface of SrTiO3 using density functional calculations. The prime focus is to answer three questions: what is the most appropriate functional to use; how accurate are the energies; what are the dominant low-energy structures and where do they lie on the surface phase diagram. Using test calculations of representative small molecules we compare conventional GGA with higher-order methods such as the TPSS meta-GGA and on-site hybrid methods PBE0 and TPSSh, the later being the most accurate. There are large effects due to reduction of the metal d oxygen sp hybridization when using the hybrid methods which are equivalent to a dynamical GGA+U, which leads to rather substantial improvements in the atomization energies of simple calibration molecules, even though the d-electron density for titanium compounds is rather small. By comparing the errors of the different methods we are able to generate an estimate of the theoretical error, which is about 0.25eV per 1x1 unit cell, with changes of 0.5-1.0 eV per 1x1 cell with the more accurate method relative to conventional GGA. An analysis of the plausible structures reveals an unusual low-energy TiO2-rich configuration with an unexpected distorted trigonal biprismatic structure. This structure can act as a template for layers of either TiO or Ti2O3, consistent with experimental results as well as, in principle, Magnelli phases. The results also suggest that both the fracture surface and the stoichiometric SrTiO3 (111) surface should spontaneously disproportionate into SrO and TiO2 rich domains, and show that there are still surprises to be found for polar oxide surfaces.Comment: 14 pages, 4 Figure

Instability, Intermixing and Electronic Structure at the Epitaxial LaAlO3/SrTiO3(001) Heterojunction

The question of stability against diffusional mixing at the prototypical LaAlO3/SrTiO3(001) interface is explored using a multi-faceted experimental and theoretical approach. We combine analytical methods with a range of sensitivities to elemental concentrations and spatial separations to investigate interfaces grown using on-axis pulsed laser deposition. We also employ computational modeling based on the density function theory as well as classical force fields to explore the energetic stability of a wide variety of intermixed atomic configurations relative to the idealized, atomically abrupt model. Statistical analysis of the calculated energies for the various configurations is used to elucidate the relative thermodynamic stability of intermixed and abrupt configurations. We find that on both experimental and theoretical fronts, the tendency toward intermixing is very strong. We have also measured and calculated key electronic properties such as the presence of electric fields and the value of the valence band discontinuity at the interface. We find no measurable electric field in either the LaAlO3 or SrTiO3, and that the valence band offset is near zero, partitioning the band discontinuity almost entirely to the conduction band edge. Moreover, we find that it is not possible to account for these electronic properties theoretically without including extensive intermixing in our physical model of the interface. The atomic configurations which give the greatest electrostatic stability are those that eliminate the interface dipole by intermixing, calling into question the conventional explanation for conductivity at this interface - electronic reconstruction. Rather, evidence is presented for La indiffusion and doping of the SrTiO3 below the interface as being the cause of the observed conductivity

The potential benefits of on-farm mitigation scenarios for reducing multiple pollutant loadings in prioritised agri-environment areas across England

The authors gratefully acknowledge the funding provided by the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) via project LM0304

Auswirkungen einer Entkopplung von Ausgleichszahlungen auf den EU-Getreidemarkt

The proposals for reforming the Common Agricultural Policy within the Mid Term Review of the European Commission fueled the discussion about the future of direct payments to farmers. The EU Commission recommends a decoupling of animal and area payments from the production by granting these direct payments as a payment claim per hectare of eligible farm land. However, introducing area tied payments the intended shift of payments “from the produce to the producer” will not take place, but instead an increased transfer of payments to land owners seems likely. This study therefore analyses the impacts of changing the area payments for grand cultures into person-tied payments on the cereals market of the European Union. For the assessment of impacts homogenous natural locations are clustered. The clustering is based on the regional reference yields for cereals and the share of arable land of total agricultural area in different farm types of the regions. For these production locations total production costs for cereals, oilseeds, and protein crops are calculated as a function of the farm size in order to estimate a cost reduction potential subject to structural changes within agriculture. The main results are the following: 1) Prerequisites are good for the EU to cultivate cereals since a major part of the production is located in highly competitive regions. Thus the EU would remain a net exporter of cereals even producing under world market conditions. However, maintaining the intervention price system while abolishing the set-aside obligation could lead to an uncontrolled increase of cereal stocks. 2) Even on highly competitive locations a significant structural change is required in order to reduce costs and to yield profits without area payments. Depending on the development of the world market prices for cereals the model calculations find a reduction of the work force between 20 000 and 50 000 labor units. 3) Without area payments the profits per hectare and thus the rents would decrease notably and therefore result in a corresponding income loss for land owners. An exclusive granting of payment claims to the producers would in particular affect former farmers, whose rental incomes contribute substantially to their pension plans