Plebiscites and the Public Purse: U.S. Experience with Direct Democracy

The United States is a distinctive case for studying the way extensive direct democracy can affect fiscal policy. Every state in the Union allows voters to decide certain ballot questions about how to raise and spend public revenue. The U.S. record shows that large‐scale plebiscites fail to produce reliably “pro‐poor” government finance. Direct citizen involvement in fiscal policy has not led to uniformly equitable or financially sustainable state budgets. Nor has it mobilized low‐income groups to express and defend their economic interests. When called upon to make decisions about the amounts and purposes of statewide government spending, the electorate is apt to disregard any hardship for poor people. Political parties and advocacy organizations, working through traditional representative institutions, are usually a more promising avenue for fighting poverty

Economic and Psychological Theories of Forecast Bias and Learning: Evidence from U.S. Business Managers' Forecasts

Economists and psychologists have each puzzled over the nature of decision making and the formation of expectations. Mainstream economists currently base their theory of expectation formation on the assumption of rationality Rationality implies unbiased forecasts and learning from past mistakes. Psychologists, however, see people as guided by processes other than the assumption of rationality. These processes often result in biased predictions and a failure to learn from past mistakes. This paper uses Conference Board data to examine the forecasts of business managers for evidence of bias and learning. Our analysis reveals systematically biased decision making by business executes in nearly every industry studied. The managers in the sample proved to be overly optimistic. In addition we find evidence of the learning that economists predict. However, this learning is of little consequence to the accuracy of managerial forecasts. These outcomes are analyzed using both the economics and cognitive psychology literature.Expectation; Forecast; Forecasts; Learning; Prediction; Rationality

Attitudes and Performance: An Analysis of Russian Workers

This paper investigates the relationship between locus of control and performance among Russian employees, using survey data collected at 28 workplaces in 2002 in Taganrog and at 47 workplaces in 2003 in Ekaterinburg. We develop a measure that allows us to categorize the Russian employees participating in our survey as exhibiting an internal or external locus of control. We then assess the extent to which there are significant differences between “internals” and “externals” in work-related attitudes that may affect performance. In particular, we focus on (1) attitudes about outcomes associated with hard work, (2) level of job satisfaction, (3) expectation of receiving a desired reward, and (4) loyalty to and involvement with one’s organization. In each case we identify where gender and generational differences emerge. Our main objective is to determine whether Russian employees who exhibit an internal locus of control perform better than employees with an external locus of control. Our performance measures include earnings, expected promotions, and assessments of the quantity and quality of work in comparison to others at the same organization doing a similar job. Controlling for a variety of worker characteristics, we find that (1) individuals who exhibit an internal locus of control perform better, but this result is not always statistically significant; (2) even among “internals,” women earn significantly less than men and have a much lower expectation of promotion; (3) even among “internals,” experience with unemployment has a negative influence on performance.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/40144/3/wp758.pd

A <i>Herschel</i> and BIMA study of the sequential star formation near the W 48A H II region

We present the results of Herschel HOBYS (Herschel imaging survey of OB Young Stellar objects) photometric mapping combined with Berkeley Illinois Maryland Association (BIMA) observations and additional archival data, and perform an in-depth study of the evolutionary phases of the star-forming clumps in W 48A and their surroundings. Age estimates for the compact sources were derived from bolometric luminosities and envelope masses, which were obtained from the dust continuum emission, and agree within an order of magnitude with age estimates from molecular line and radio data. The clumps in W 48A are linearly aligned by age (east-old to west-young): we find a ultra-compact (UC) H II region, a young stellar object (YSO) with class II methanol maser emission, a YSO with a massive outflow and finally the NH2D prestellar cores from Pillai et al. This remarkable positioning reflects the (star) formation history of the region. We find that it is unlikely that the star formation in the W 48A molecular cloud was triggered by the UC H II region and discuss the Aquila supershell expansion as a major influence on the evolution of W 48A. We conclude that the combination of Herschel continuum data with interferometric molecular line and radio continuum data is important to derive trustworthy age estimates and interpret the origin of large-scale structures through kinematic information

Measuring the capability to raise revenue process and output dimensions and their application to the Zambia revenue authority

The worldwide diffusion of the good governance agenda and new public management has triggered a renewed focus on state capability and, more specifically, on the capability to raise revenue in developing countries. However, the analytical tools for a comprehensive understanding of the capability to raise revenue remain underdeveloped. This article aims at filling this gap and presents a model consisting of the three process dimensions ‘information collection and processing’, ‘merit orientation’ and ‘administrative accountability’. ‘Revenue performance’ constitutes the fourth capability dimension which assesses tax administration’s output. This model is applied to the case of the Zambia Revenue Authority. The dimensions prove to be valuable not only for assessing the how much but also the how of collecting taxes. They can be a useful tool for future comparative analyses of tax administrations’ capabilities in developing countries.Die weltweite Verbreitung der Good-Governance- und New-Public-Management-Konzepte hat zu einer zunehmenden Konzentration auf staatliche Leistungsfähigkeit und, im Besonderen, auf die Leistungsfähigkeit der Steuererhebung in Entwicklungsländern geführt. Allerdings bleiben die analytischen Werkzeuge für ein umfassendes Verständnis von Leistungsfähigkeit unterentwickelt. Dieser Artikel stellt hierfür ein Modell vor, das die drei Prozess-Dimensionen „Sammeln und Verarbeiten von Informationen“, „Leistungsorientierung der Mitarbeiter“ und „Verantwortlichkeit der Verwaltung“ beinhaltet. „Einnahmeperformanz“ ist die vierte Dimension und erfasst den Output der Steuerverwaltung. Das mehrdimensionale Modell wird für die Analyse der Leistungsfähigkeit der Steuerbehörde Zambias (Zambia Revenue Authority) genutzt. Es erweist sich nicht nur für die Untersuchung des Wieviel, sondern auch des Wie des Erhebens von Steuern als wertvoll. Die vier Dimensionen können in Zukunft zur umfassenden und vergleichenden Analyse der Leistungsfähigkeit verschiedener Steuerverwaltungen in Entwicklungsländern genutzt werden

Basal LAT-diacylglycerol-RasGRP1 Signals in T Cells Maintain TCRα Gene Expression

In contrast to the well-characterized T cell receptor (TCR) signaling pathways that induce genes that drive T cell development or polarization of naïve CD4 T cells into the diverse TH1, TH2, TH17 and Treg lineages, it is unclear what signals maintain specific gene expression in mature resting T cells. Resting T cells residing in peripheral lymphoid organs exhibit low-level constitutive signaling. Whereas tonic signals in B cells are known to be critical for survival, the roles of tonic signals in peripheral T cells are unknown. Here we demonstrate that constitutive signals in Jurkat T cell lines are transduced via the adapter molecule LAT and the Ras exchange factor RasGRP1 to maintain expression of TCRα mRNA and surface expression of the TCR/CD3 complex. Independent approaches of reducing basal activity through the LAT-diacylglycerol-RasGRP pathway led to reduced constitutive Ras-MEK-ERK signals and decreased TCRα mRNA and surface TCR expression in Jurkat cells. However, loss of TCR expression takes several days in these cell line experiments. In agreement with these in vitro approaches, inducible deletion of Lat in vivo results in reduced TCRα mRNA- and surface TCR- expression in a delayed temporal manner as well. Lastly, we demonstrate that loss of basal LAT-RasGRP signals appears to lead to silencing or repression of TCRα transcription. We postulate that basal LAT-diacylglycerol-RasGRP signals fulfill a regulatory function in peripheral T lymphocytes by maintaining proper gene expression programs

Country Concepts and the Rational Actor Trap: Limitations to Strategic Management of International NGOs

Growing criticism of inefficient development aid demanded new planning instruments of donors, including international NGOs (INGOs). A reorientation from isolated project-planning towards holistic country concepts and the increasing rationality of a result-orientated planning process were seen as answer. However, whether these country concepts - newly introduced by major INGOs too - have increased the efficiency of development cooperation is open to question. Firstly, there have been counteracting external factors, like the globalization of the aid business, that demanded structural changes in the composition of INGO portfolios towards growing short-term humanitarian aid; this was hardly compatible with the requirements of medium-term country planning. Secondly, the underlying vision of rationality as a remedy for the major ills of development aid was in itself a fallacy. A major change in the methodology of planning, closely connected with a shift of emphasis in the approach to development cooperation, away from project planning and service delivery, towards supporting the socio-cultural and political environment of the recipient communities, demands a reorientation of aid management: The most urgent change needed is by donors, away from the blinkers of result-orientated planning towards participative organizational cultures of learning.Des critiques croissantes de l'aide au développement inefficace exigent de nouveaux instruments de planification des bailleurs de fonds, y compris les ONG internationales (ONGI). Une réorientation de la planification des projets isolés vers des concepts holistiques de la planification de l’aide par pays ainsi que la rationalité croissante d'un processus de planification orientée vers les résultats ont été considérés comme réponse. Toutefois, si ces concepts de pays - nouvellement introduites par les grandes OING eux aussi - ont augmenté l'efficacité de la coopération au développement est ouvert à la question. Tout d'abord, il y a eu l’impact des facteurs externes, comme la mondialisation de l'entreprise de l'aide, qui a exigé des changements structurels dans la composition des portefeuilles des OING vers la croissance de l'aide humanitaire à court terme. Cela était difficilement compatible avec les exigences de l'aménagement du territoire à moyen terme. Deuxièmement, la vision sous-jacente de la rationalité accrue de la planification, concentré sur les resultats, comme un remède pour les grands maux de l'aide au développement était en soi une erreur. Un changement majeur dans la méthodologie de la planification, étroitement liée à un changement d'orientation dans l'approche de la coopération au développement, qui n’est pas concentrer sur planification du projet et la prestation de services, mais qui soutienne l'environnement socio-culturel et politique des communautés bénéficiaires, exige une réorientation de la gestion de l’aide: Le changement le plus urgent est un changement par les donateurs eux-mêmes, qui devrait implanter des cultures de collaboration étroit avec les partenaires et la population locale

How does neopatrimonialism affect the African state? The case of tax collection in Zambia

Following the neopatrimonialism paradigm, it can be hypothesised that in African states informal politics of the rulers infringe on the collection of taxes and in turn reduce state revenue. This article tests this proposition for the case of Zambia. Neopatrimonial continuity in the country is evidenced by three factors : the concentration of political power, the award of personal favours, and the misuse of state resources. Despite this continuity, the revenue performance increased considerably with the creation of the semi-autonomous Zambia Revenue Authority. Donor pressure has been the most important intervening variable accounting for this improvement. Yet, strengthening the collection of central state revenue has been consistent with a neopatrimonial rationale, and may even have fed neopatrimonialism overall, by providing increased resources for particularistic expenditure