Water column productivity and temperature predict coral reef regeneration across the Indo-Pacific

Predicted increases in seawater temperatures accelerate coral reef decline due to mortality by heat-driven coral bleaching. Alteration of the natural nutrient environment of reef corals reduces tolerance of corals to heat and light stress and thus will exacerbate impacts of global warming on reefs. Still, many reefs demonstrate remarkable regeneration from past stress events. This paper investigates the effects of sea surface temperature (SST) and water column productivity on recovery of coral reefs. In 71 Indo-Pacific sites, coral cover changes over the past 1-3 decades correlated negative-exponentially with mean SST, chlorophyll a, and SST rise. At six monitoring sites (Persian/Arabian Gulf, Red Sea, northern and southern Galápagos, Easter Island, Panama), over half of all corals were <31 years, implying that measured environmental variables indeed shaped populations and community. An Indo-Pacific-wide model suggests reefs in the northwest and central Indian Ocean, as well as the central west Pacific, are at highest risk of degradation, and those at high latitudes the least. The model pinpoints regions where coral reefs presently have the best chances for survival. However, reefs best buffered against temperature and nutrient effects are those that current studies suggest to be most at peril from future ocean acidification

A community change in the algal endosymbionts of a scleractinian coral following a natural bleaching event: field evidence of acclimatization

The symbiosis between reef-building corals and their algal endosymbionts (zooxanthellae of the genus Symbiodinium) is highly sensitive to temperature stress, which makes coral reefs vulnerable to climate change. Thermal tolerance in corals is known to be substantially linked to the type of zooxanthellae they harbour and, when multiple types are present, the relative abundance of types can be experimentally manipulated to increase the thermal limits of individual corals. Although the potential exists for this to translate into substantial thermal acclimatization of coral communities, to date there is no evidence to show that this takes place under natural conditions. In this study, we show field evidence of a dramatic change in the symbiont community of Acropora millepora, a common and widespread Indo-Pacific hard coral species, after a natural bleaching event in early 2006 in the Keppel Islands (Great Barrier Reef). Before bleaching, 93.5% (n=460) of the randomly sampled and tagged colonies predominantly harboured the thermally sensitive Symbiodinium type C2, while the remainder harboured a tolerant Symbiodinium type belonging to clade D or mixtures of C2 and D. After bleaching, 71% of the surviving tagged colonies that were initially C2 predominant changed to D or C1 predominance. Colonies that were originally C2 predominant suffered high mortality (37%) compared with D-predominant colonies (8%). We estimate that just over 18% of the original A. millepora population survived unchanged leaving 29% of the population C2 and 71% D or C1 predominant six months after the bleaching event. This change in the symbiont community structure, while it persists, is likely to have substantially increased the thermal tolerance of this coral population. Understanding the processes that underpin the temporal changes in symbiont communities is key to assessing the acclimatization potential of reef corals

On Profit-Maximizing Pricing for the Highway and Tollbooth Problems

In the \emph{tollbooth problem}, we are given a tree \bT=(V,E) with $n$ edges, and a set of $m$ customers, each of whom is interested in purchasing a path on the tree. Each customer has a fixed budget, and the objective is to price the edges of \bT such that the total revenue made by selling the paths to the customers that can afford them is maximized. An important special case of this problem, known as the \emph{highway problem}, is when \bT is restricted to be a line. For the tollbooth problem, we present a randomized $O(\log n)$-approximation, improving on the current best $O(\log m)$-approximation. We also study a special case of the tollbooth problem, when all the paths that customers are interested in purchasing go towards a fixed root of \bT. In this case, we present an algorithm that returns a $(1-\epsilon)$-approximation, for any $\epsilon > 0$, and runs in quasi-polynomial time. On the other hand, we rule out the existence of an FPTAS by showing that even for the line case, the problem is strongly NP-hard. Finally, we show that in the \emph{coupon model}, when we allow some items to be priced below zero to improve the overall profit, the problem becomes even APX-hard

Stationary IPA Estimates for Non-Smooth G/G/1/∞\infty Functionals via Palm Inversion and Level-Crossing Analysis

We give stationary estimates for the derivative of the expectation of a non-smooth function of bounded variation f of the workload in a G/G/1/$\infty$ queue, with respect to a parameter influencing the distribu- tion of the input process. For this, we use an idea of Konstantopoulos and Zazanis based on the Palm inversion formula, however avoiding a limiting argument by performing the level-crossing analysis thereof globally, via Fubini's theorem. This method of proof allows to treat the case where the workload distribution has a mass at discontinuities of f and where the formula has to be modified. The case where the parameter is the speed of service or/and the time scale factor of the input process is also treated using the same approach

Bounded Model Checking of GSMP Models of Stochastic Real-Time Systems

Model checking is a popular algorithmic verification technique for checking temporal requirements of mathematical models of systems. In this paper, we consider the problem of verifying bounded reachability properties of stochastic real-time systems modeled as generalized semi-Markov processes (GSMP). While GSMPs is a rich model for stochastic systems widely used in performance evaluation, existing model checking algorithms are applicable only to subclasses such as discrete-time or continuous-time Markov chains. The main contribution of the paper is an algorithm to compute the probability that a given GSMP satisfies a property of the form “can the system reach a target before time T within k discrete events, while staying within a set of safe states”. For this, we show that the probability density function for the remaining firing times of different events in a GSMP after k discrete events can be effectively partitioned into finitely many regions and represented by exponentials and polynomials. We report on illustrative examples and their analysis using our techniques

Dimethyl fumarate in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 (RECOVERY): a randomised, controlled, open-label, platform trial

Dimethyl fumarate (DMF) inhibits inflammasome-mediated inflammation and has been proposed as a treatment for patients hospitalised with COVID-19. This randomised, controlled, open-label platform trial (Randomised Evaluation of COVID-19 Therapy [RECOVERY]), is assessing multiple treatments in patients hospitalised for COVID-19 (NCT04381936, ISRCTN50189673). In this assessment of DMF performed at 27 UK hospitals, adults were randomly allocated (1:1) to either usual standard of care alone or usual standard of care plus DMF. The primary outcome was clinical status on day 5 measured on a seven-point ordinal scale. Secondary outcomes were time to sustained improvement in clinical status, time to discharge, day 5 peripheral blood oxygenation, day 5 C-reactive protein, and improvement in day 10 clinical status. Between 2 March 2021 and 18 November 2021, 713 patients were enroled in the DMF evaluation, of whom 356 were randomly allocated to receive usual care plus DMF, and 357 to usual care alone. 95% of patients received corticosteroids as part of routine care. There was no evidence of a beneficial effect of DMF on clinical status at day 5 (common odds ratio of unfavourable outcome 1.12; 95% CI 0.86-1.47; p = 0.40). There was no significant effect of DMF on any secondary outcome