Improvement of operational flood forecasting through the assimilation of satellite observations and multiple river flow data

Abstract. Data assimilation has the potential to improve flood forecasting. However, it is rarely employed in distributed hydrologic models for operational predictions. In this study, we present variational assimilation of river flow data at multiple locations and of land surface temperature (LST) from satellite in a distributed hydrologic model that is part of the operational forecasting chain for the Arno river, in central Italy. LST is used to estimate initial condition of soil moisture through a coupled surface energy/water balance scheme. We present here several hindcast experiments to assess the performances of the assimilation system. The results show that assimilation can significantly improve flood forecasting, although in the limit of data error and model structure

Microbiota in the Natural History of Pancreatic Cancer: From Predisposition to Therapy

Simple Summary Pancreatic cancer is still burdened with a severe prognosis, despite advances in the diagnosis and surgical management of this disease. The gut microbiome is gaining increasing interest in the development and management in this setting. The intent of our review is to provide a comprehensive review for researchers and clinicians in the field to fully understand the role of the gut microbiome in the history of pancreatic cancer. We analyzed current literature from pre-cancerous conditions to cancer characteristics and how this may alter the therapeutic approach. Evidence and concerns can guide future research in this area. Early microbiome insights came from gut microbes and their role among intestinal and extraintestinal disease. The latest evidence suggests that the microbiota is a true organ, capable of several interactions throughout the digestive system, attracting specific interest in the biliopancreatic district. Despite advances in diagnostics over the last few decades and improvements in the management of this disease, pancreatic cancer is still a common cause of cancer death. Microbiota can influence the development of precancerous disease predisposing to pancreatic cancer (PC). At the same time, neoplastic tissue shows specific characteristics in terms of diversity and phenotype, determining the short- and long-term prognosis. Considering the above information, a role for microbiota has also been hypothesized in the different phases of the PC approach, providing future revolutionary therapeutic insights. Microbiota-modulating therapies could open new issues in the therapeutic landscape. The aim of this narrative review is to assess the most updated evidence on microbiome in all the steps regarding pancreatic adenocarcinoma, from early development to response to antineoplastic therapy and long-term prognosis

ANGPT2 and NOS3 Polymorphisms and Clinical Outcome in Advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients Receiving Sorafenib

Sorafenib represents the standard of care for advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), even though a large number of patients have reported limited ecacy. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the prognostic value of single-nucleotide polymorphisms on angiopoietin-2 (ANGPT2) and endothelial-derived nitric oxide synthase (NOS3) genes in 135 patients with advanced HCC receiving sorafenib. Eight ANGPT2 polymorphisms were analyzed by direct sequencing in relation to overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS). In univariate analysis, ANGPT2rs55633437 and NOS3 rs2070744 were associated with OS and PFS. In particular, patients with ANGPT2rs55633437 TT/GT genotypes had significantly lower median OS (4.66 vs. 15.5 months, hazard ratio (HR) 4.86, 95% CI 2.73\u20138.67, p < 0.001) and PFS (1.58 vs. 6.27 months, HR 4.79, 95% CI 2.73\u20138.35, p < 0.001) than those homozygous for the G allele. Moreover, patients with NOS3 rs2070744 TC/CC genotypes had significantly higher median OS (15.6 vs. 9.1 months, HR 0.65, 95% CI 0.44\u20130.97; p = 0.036) and PFS (7.03 vs. 3.5 months, HR 0.43, 95% CI 0.30\u20130.63; p < 0.001) than patients homozygous for the T allele. Multivariate analysis confirmed these polymorphisms as independent prognostic factors. Our results suggest that ANGPT2rs55633437 and NOS3 rs2070744 polymorphisms could identify a subset of HCC patients more resistant to sorafenib

Development and Multicenter Validation of a Novel Immune-Inflammation-Based Nomogram to Predict Survival in Western Resectable Gastric and Gastroesophageal Junction Adenocarcinoma (GEA): The NOMOGAST

Background. More than 50% of operable GEA relapse after curative-intent resection. We aimed at externally validating a nomogram to enable a more accurate estimate of individualized risk in resected GEA. Methods. Medical records of a training cohort (TC) and a validation cohort (VC) of patients undergoing radical surgery for c/uT2-T4 and/or node-positive GEA were retrieved, and potentially interesting variables were collected. Cox proportional hazards in univariate and multivariate regressions were used to assess the effects of the prognostic factors on OS. A graphical nomogram was constructed using R software’s package Regression Modeling Strategies (ver. 5.0-1). The performance of the prognostic model was evaluated and validated. Results. The TC and VC consisted of 185 and 151 patients. ECOG:PS > 0 (p < 0.001), angioinvasion (p < 0.001), log (Neutrophil/Lymphocyte ratio) (p < 0.001), and nodal status (p = 0.016) were independent prognostic values in the TC. They were used for the construction of a nomogram estimating 3- and 5-year OS. The discriminatory ability of the model was evaluated with the c-Harrell index. A 3-tier scoring system was developed through a linear predictor grouped by 25 and 75 percentiles, strengthening the model’s good discrimination (p < 0.001). A calibration plot demonstrated a concordance between the predicted and actual survival in the TC and VC. A decision curve analysis was plotted that depicted the nomogram’s clinical utility. Conclusions. We externally validated a prognostic nomogram to predict OS in a joint independent cohort of resectable GEA; the NOMOGAST could represent a valuable tool in assisting decision-making. This tool incorporates readily available and inexpensive patient and disease characteristics as well as immune-inflammatory determinants. It is accurate, generalizable, and clinically effectivex

Role of prenatal magnetic resonance imaging in fetuses with isolated mild or moderate ventriculomegaly in the era of neurosonography: international multicenter study

Objectives To assess the role of fetal magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in detecting associated anomalies in fetuses presenting with mild or moderate isolated ventriculomegaly (VM) undergoing multiplanar ultrasound evaluation of the fetal brain. Methods This was a multicenter, retrospective, cohort study involving 15 referral fetal medicine centers in Italy, the UK and Spain. Inclusion criteria were fetuses affected by isolated mild (ventricular atrial diameter, 10.0–11.9 mm) or moderate (ventricular atrial diameter, 12.0–14.9 mm) VM on ultrasound, defined as VM with normal karyotype and no other additional central nervous system (CNS) or extra‐CNS anomalies on ultrasound, undergoing detailed assessment of the fetal brain using a multiplanar approach as suggested by the International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology guidelines for the fetal neurosonogram, followed by fetal MRI. The primary outcome of the study was to report the incidence of additional CNS anomalies detected exclusively on prenatal MRI and missed on ultrasound, while the secondary aim was to estimate the incidence of additional anomalies detected exclusively after birth and missed on prenatal imaging (ultrasound and MRI). Subgroup analysis according to gestational age at MRI (< 24 vs ≥ 24 weeks), laterality of VM (unilateral vs bilateral) and severity of dilatation (mild vs moderate VM) were also performed. Results Five hundred and fifty‐six fetuses with a prenatal diagnosis of isolated mild or moderate VM on ultrasound were included in the analysis. Additional structural anomalies were detected on prenatal MRI and missed on ultrasound in 5.4% (95% CI, 3.8–7.6%) of cases. When considering the type of anomaly, supratentorial intracranial hemorrhage was detected on MRI in 26.7% of fetuses, while polymicrogyria and lissencephaly were detected in 20.0% and 13.3% of cases, respectively. Hypoplasia of the corpus callosum was detected on MRI in 6.7% of cases, while dysgenesis was detected in 3.3%. Fetuses with an associated anomaly detected only on MRI were more likely to have moderate than mild VM (60.0% vs 17.7%; P < 0.001), while there was no significant difference in the proportion of cases with bilateral VM between the two groups (P = 0.2). Logistic regression analysis showed that lower maternal body mass index (adjusted odds ratio (aOR), 0.85 (95% CI, 0.7–0.99); P = 0.030), the presence of moderate VM (aOR, 5.8 (95% CI, 2.6–13.4); P < 0.001) and gestational age at MRI ≥ 24 weeks (aOR, 4.1 (95% CI, 1.1–15.3); P = 0.038) were associated independently with the probability of detecting an associated anomaly on MRI. Associated anomalies were detected exclusively at birth and missed on prenatal imaging in 3.8% of cases. Conclusions The incidence of an associated fetal anomaly missed on ultrasound and detected only on fetal MRI in fetuses with isolated mild or moderate VM undergoing neurosonography is lower than that reported previously. The large majority of these anomalies are difficult to detect on ultrasound. The findings from this study support the practice of MRI assessment in every fetus with a prenatal diagnosis of VM, although parents can be reassured of the low risk of an associated anomaly when VM is isolated on neurosonography

Colorectal Cancer Stage at Diagnosis Before vs During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Italy

IMPORTANCE Delays in screening programs and the reluctance of patients to seek medical attention because of the outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 could be associated with the risk of more advanced colorectal cancers at diagnosis. OBJECTIVE To evaluate whether the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic was associated with more advanced oncologic stage and change in clinical presentation for patients with colorectal cancer. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS This retrospective, multicenter cohort study included all 17 938 adult patients who underwent surgery for colorectal cancer from March 1, 2020, to December 31, 2021 (pandemic period), and from January 1, 2018, to February 29, 2020 (prepandemic period), in 81 participating centers in Italy, including tertiary centers and community hospitals. Follow-up was 30 days from surgery. EXPOSURES Any type of surgical procedure for colorectal cancer, including explorative surgery, palliative procedures, and atypical or segmental resections. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES The primary outcome was advanced stage of colorectal cancer at diagnosis. Secondary outcomes were distant metastasis, T4 stage, aggressive biology (defined as cancer with at least 1 of the following characteristics: signet ring cells, mucinous tumor, budding, lymphovascular invasion, perineural invasion, and lymphangitis), stenotic lesion, emergency surgery, and palliative surgery. The independent association between the pandemic period and the outcomes was assessed using multivariate random-effects logistic regression, with hospital as the cluster variable. RESULTS A total of 17 938 patients (10 007 men [55.8%]; mean [SD] age, 70.6 [12.2] years) underwent surgery for colorectal cancer: 7796 (43.5%) during the pandemic period and 10 142 (56.5%) during the prepandemic period. Logistic regression indicated that the pandemic period was significantly associated with an increased rate of advanced-stage colorectal cancer (odds ratio [OR], 1.07; 95%CI, 1.01-1.13; P = .03), aggressive biology (OR, 1.32; 95%CI, 1.15-1.53; P &lt; .001), and stenotic lesions (OR, 1.15; 95%CI, 1.01-1.31; P = .03). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE This cohort study suggests a significant association between the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic and the risk of a more advanced oncologic stage at diagnosis among patients undergoing surgery for colorectal cancer and might indicate a potential reduction of survival for these patients

Disease-Modifying Therapies and Coronavirus Disease 2019 Severity in Multiple Sclerosis

Objective: This study was undertaken to assess the impact of immunosuppressive and immunomodulatory therapies on the severity of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in people with multiple sclerosis (PwMS). Methods: We retrospectively collected data of PwMS with suspected or confirmed COVID-19. All the patients had complete follow-up to death or recovery. Severe COVID-19 was defined by a 3-level variable: mild disease not requiring hospitalization versus pneumonia or hospitalization versus intensive care unit (ICU) admission or death. We evaluated baseline characteristics and MS therapies associated with severe COVID-19 by multivariate and propensity score (PS)-weighted ordinal logistic models. Sensitivity analyses were run to confirm the results. Results: Of 844 PwMS with suspected (n = 565) or confirmed (n = 279) COVID-19, 13 (1.54%) died; 11 of them were in a progressive MS phase, and 8 were without any therapy. Thirty-eight (4.5%) were admitted to an ICU; 99 (11.7%) had radiologically documented pneumonia; 96 (11.4%) were hospitalized. After adjusting for region, age, sex, progressive MS course, Expanded Disability Status Scale, disease duration, body mass index, comorbidities, and recent methylprednisolone use, therapy with an anti-CD20 agent (ocrelizumab or rituximab) was significantly associated (odds ratio [OR] = 2.37, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.18-4.74, p = 0.015) with increased risk of severe COVID-19. Recent use (&lt;1 month) of methylprednisolone was also associated with a worse outcome (OR = 5.24, 95% CI = 2.20-12.53, p = 0.001). Results were confirmed by the PS-weighted analysis and by all the sensitivity analyses. Interpretation: This study showed an acceptable level of safety of therapies with a broad array of mechanisms of action. However, some specific elements of risk emerged. These will need to be considered while the COVID-19 pandemic persists

Infected pancreatic necrosis: outcomes and clinical predictors of mortality. A post hoc analysis of the MANCTRA-1 international study

: The identification of high-risk patients in the early stages of infected pancreatic necrosis (IPN) is critical, because it could help the clinicians to adopt more effective management strategies. We conducted a post hoc analysis of the MANCTRA-1 international study to assess the association between clinical risk factors and mortality among adult patients with IPN. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression models were used to identify prognostic factors of mortality. We identified 247 consecutive patients with IPN hospitalised between January 2019 and December 2020. History of uncontrolled arterial hypertension (p = 0.032; 95% CI 1.135-15.882; aOR 4.245), qSOFA (p = 0.005; 95% CI 1.359-5.879; aOR 2.828), renal failure (p = 0.022; 95% CI 1.138-5.442; aOR 2.489), and haemodynamic failure (p = 0.018; 95% CI 1.184-5.978; aOR 2.661), were identified as independent predictors of mortality in IPN patients. Cholangitis (p = 0.003; 95% CI 1.598-9.930; aOR 3.983), abdominal compartment syndrome (p = 0.032; 95% CI 1.090-6.967; aOR 2.735), and gastrointestinal/intra-abdominal bleeding (p = 0.009; 95% CI 1.286-5.712; aOR 2.710) were independently associated with the risk of mortality. Upfront open surgical necrosectomy was strongly associated with the risk of mortality (p &lt; 0.001; 95% CI 1.912-7.442; aOR 3.772), whereas endoscopic drainage of pancreatic necrosis (p = 0.018; 95% CI 0.138-0.834; aOR 0.339) and enteral nutrition (p = 0.003; 95% CI 0.143-0.716; aOR 0.320) were found as protective factors. Organ failure, acute cholangitis, and upfront open surgical necrosectomy were the most significant predictors of mortality. Our study confirmed that, even in a subgroup of particularly ill patients such as those with IPN, upfront open surgery should be avoided as much as possible. Study protocol registered in ClinicalTrials.Gov (I.D. Number NCT04747990)

Attachment and perceived stress in patients with ulcerative colitis, a case\u2013control study

What is known on the subject?: Ulcerative colitis (UC) is a chronic inflammatory disorder associated with high perceived psychological stress. The attachment theory provides a psychodynamic perspective to investigate the relationship between close interpersonal relationships and stress in UC. Researchers have hypothesized that the chronic illness might affect personality trait as the attachment style of patients. What this paper adds to existing knowledge?: UC patients exhibit a more pronounced attachment insecurity that, in turn, resulted as a determinant of psychological stress. This study suggests that UC could determine a shift towards insecurity in the attachment style that, in turn, promotes psychological stress and increases the risk of psychopathologies. What are the implications for practice?: The more accurate knowledge of attachment insecurity in patients with chronic disorders such as UC may help the nurses to face with often dysfunctional patients\u2019 styles of manifesting distress, patterns of help seeking and expectations of health professionals. The knowledge of psychopathological mechanisms in patients with UC could improve the prevention and treatment of psychological disorders in affected patients. Abstract: Introduction Ulcerative colitis (UC) is a chronic disorder characterized by recurrent intestinal symptoms. The attachment theory provides a psychodynamic perspective to investigate the relationship between interpersonal relationships and stress in UC. Aim The aim of this study was to compare the attachment dimensions between UC patients and controls and to evaluate the impact of these dimensions on perceived stress in patients. Method In all, 101 patients with UC completed the attachment style questionnaire and the perceived stress questionnaire (PSQ). Clinical and psychometric parameters were added as predictor variables in a regression with the PSQ score as dependent variable. One hundred and five healthy subjects took part in the study as controls. Results Compared to controls, UC patients exhibited greater scores in relationships as secondary, need for approval and preoccupation with relationships. In UC, disease activity, confidence and preoccupation with relationships resulted predictors of perceived stress. Discussion Compared to healthy controls, UC patients exhibited more pronounced attachment insecurity that, in turn, was a significant predictor of the perceived stress. Implications for practice The knowledge of attachment insecurity may help the nurses and all health care providers to face with dysfunctional patients\u2019 styles of manifesting distress, help seeking and expectations of health professionals