Dynamics of the 2006/2007 dengue outbreak in Brazil

We analyzed dengue incidence in the period between October 2006-July 2007 of 146 cities around the country were Larval Index Rapid Assay (LIRA) surveillance was carried out in October 2006. Of these, we chosen 61 cities that had 500 or more cases reported during this period. We calculated the incidence coefficient, the force of infection (») and the basic reproduction number (R0) of dengue in those 61 cities and correlated those variables with the LIRA. We concluded that » and R0 are more associated with the number of cases than LIRA. In addition, the average R0 for the 2006/2007 dengue season was almost as high as that calculated for the 2001/2002 season, the worst in Brazilian history.CNPqFAPESPFMUSP - H

Dengue and Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever, Brazil, 1981–2002

Brazil has experienced an increase in dengue disease severity in the past 5 years

Dengue epidemic early warning system for Brazil

Copyright © 2015 UNISDR (United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction)The problem Brazil has reported more cases of dengue fever than anywhere else in the world this century1. Many cities have tropical and sub-tropical climate conditions that allow the dengue mosquito to thrive during warmer, wetter and more humid months, particularly in densely populated urban areas. Dengue epidemics depend on mosquito abundance, virus circulation and human susceptibility. In order to prepare for dengue epidemics, early warning systems, which take into account multiple dengue risk factors, are required to implement timely control measures. Seasonal climate forecasts provide an opportunity to anticipate dengue epidemics several months in advance ...European Commission’s Seventh Framework Research Programme project DENFREEEuropean Commission’s Seventh Framework Research Programme project EUPORIASEuropean Commission’s Seventh Framework Research Programme project SPECSConselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e TecnológicoFundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado do Rio de Janeiro (FAPERJ

INNOVATION AND LEARNING IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIMITED RATIONALITY AND SUBJECT TO NETWORK EXTERNALITIES: A DISCRETE CHOICE APPROACH

O artigo utiliza-se da modelagem baseada em agentes para identificar os tipos de aprendizados adotados pelas firmas em uma estrutura de mercado emergente e em um quadro dinâmico de mudanças técnicas, que se expressa por meio do esforço de aprendizado. Assim, o modelo computacional elaborado considera que as firmas possuem duas fontes diferentes de incentivo à inovação: incentivos internos e externos à firma. Dados de inovação disponibilizados pela (PINTEC), para o setor têxtil e de máquinas e equipamentos, foram utilizados para calibrar o modelo desenvolvido. Os resultados sugerem que os aprendizados adotados pelas firmas do setor de máquinas e equipamentos são sensíveis à fonte de incentivo. Por sua vez, os aprendizados adotados pelas firmas que compõem o setor têxtil são pouco sensíveis à fonte dos incentivos e ao grau de heterogeneidade com que as firmas percebem os incentivos externos.The paper uses agent-based modeling to identify the types of learning adoptedby firms in an emerging market structure and a dynamic framework of technical change thatis expressed through learning effort. Thus, the computational model elaborated considersthat firms have two different sources of incentive to innovation: a) incentives internal tothe firm; and b) incentives outside the firm. Innovation data provided by (PINTEC) for thetextile and machinery and equipment sector were used to calibrate the developed model.The results suggest that the learning adopted by firms in the machinery and equipmentsector is sensitive to the incentive source. In turn, the learning adopted by firms that makeup the textile sector are not very sensitive to the source of the incentives, and to the degree of heterogeneity with which firms perceive external incentives

Risk of symptomatic dengue for foreign visitors to the 2014 FIFA World Cup in Brazil

Brazil will host the FIFA World Cup T, the biggest single-event competition in the world, from June 12-July 13 2014 in 12 cities. This event will draw an estimated 600,000 international visitors. Brazil is endemic for dengue. Hence, attendees of the 2014 event are theoretically at risk for dengue. We calculated the risk of dengue acquisition to non-immune international travellers to Brazil, depending on the football match schedules, considering locations and dates of such matches for June and July 2014. We estimated the average per-capita risk and expected number of dengue cases for each host-city and each game schedule chosen based on reported dengue cases to the Brazilian Ministry of Health for the period between 2010-2013. On the average, the expected number of cases among the 600,000 foreigner tourists during the World Cup is 33, varying from 3-59. Such risk estimates will not only benefit individual travellers for adequate pre-travel preparations, but also provide valuable information for public health professionals and policy makers worldwide. Furthermore, estimates of dengue cases in international travellers during the World Cup can help to anticipate the theoretical risk for exportation of dengue into currently non-infected areas.FNS-SVSMSConselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)LIM01-HCFMUSPFundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)DengueTools/Seventh Framework Programme of the European CommunityUniv São Paulo, Fac Med, Hosp Clin LIM01, São Paulo, BrazilUniv São Paulo, Fac Med Vet, São Paulo, BrazilUniv São Paulo, Nucleo Anal Interdisciplinares Polit Publ & Estra, São Paulo, BrazilLondon Sch Hyg & Trop Med, London WC1, EnglandNanyang Univ, Lee Kong Chian Sch Med, Singapore, SingaporeFlorida Int Univ, Ctr Internet Augmented Res & Assesssment, Miami, FL 33199 USAMinist Saude, Brasilia, DF, BrazilFiocruz MS, Programa Comp Cient, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, BrazilUniversidade Federal de São Paulo, Escola Paulista Med, Hosp São Paulo, São Paulo, BrazilUniversidade Federal de São Paulo, Escola Paulista Med, Hosp São Paulo, São Paulo, BrazilMS: 27835/2012DengueTools/Seventh Framework Programme of the European Community: 282589Web of Scienc

Effects of a local single dose administration of growth hormone on the osseointegration of titanium implants

The aim of the present study was to evaluate the effect of different concentrations of growth hormone (GH) on endosteal implant?s surface at the early stages of osseointegration. Sixty tapered acid-etched titanium implants were divided into four groups: i) Collagen, used as a control group; and three experimental groups, where after collagen coating, GH was administered directly to the surface in varying concentrations: ii) 0.265 mg, iii) 0.53 mg, and iv) 1 mg. Implants were placed in an interpolated fashion in the anterior flange of C3, C4 or C5 of 15 sheep with minimum distance of 6 mm between implants. After 3-, 6- and 12-weeks of healing samples were harvested, histologically processed, qualitatively and quantitatively assessed for bone-to-implant contact (BIC) and bone area fraction occupancy (BAFO). Statistical analysis as a function of time in vivo and coating resulted in no significant differences for BIC and BAFO at any evaluation time point. Histological evaluation demonstrated similar osseointegration features for all groups with woven bone formation at 3 weeks and progressive replacement of woven for lamellar bone in close contact with the implant surface and within the implant?s threads. A single local application of growth hormone to the surface of titanium implants did not yield improved implant osseointegration independent of healing time

The risk of urban yellow fever resurgence in Aedes-infested American cities.

Aedes aegypti, historically known as yellow fever (YF) mosquito, transmits a great number of other viruses such as Dengue, West Nile, Chikungunya, Zika, Mayaro and perhaps Oropouche, among others. Well established in Africa and Asia, Aedes mosquitoes are now increasingly invading large parts of the American continent, and hence the risk of urban YF resurgence in the American cities should because of great concern to public health authorities. Although no new urban cycle of YF was reported in the Americas since the end of an Aedes eradication programme in the late 1950s, the high number of non-vaccinated individuals that visit endemic areas, that is, South American jungles where the sylvatic cycle of YF is transmitted by canopy mosquitoes, and return to Aedes-infested urban areas, increases the risk of resurgence of the urban cycle of YF. We present a method to estimate the risk of urban YF resurgence in dengue-endemic cities. This method consists in (1) to estimate the number of Aedes mosquitoes that explains a given dengue outbreak in a given region; (2) calculate the force of infection caused by the introduction of one infective individual per unit area in the endemic area under study; (3) using the above estimates, calculate the probability of at least one autochthonous YF case per unit area produced by one single viraemic traveller per unit area arriving from a YF endemic or epidemic sylvatic region at the city studied. We demonstrate that, provided the relative vector competence, here defined as the capacity to being infected and disseminate the virus, of Ae. aegypti is greater than 0.7 (with respect to dengue), one infected traveller can introduce urban YF in a dengue endemic area

Changing paradigms in Aedes control: considering the spatial heterogeneity of dengue transmission.

Current dengue vector control strategies, focusing on reactive implementation of insecticide-based interventions in response to clinically apparent disease manifestations, tend to be inefficient, short-lived, and unsustainable within the worldwide epidemiological scenario of virus epidemic recrudescence. As a result of a series of expert meetings and deliberations, a paradigm shift is occurring and a new strategy, using risk stratification at the city level in order to concentrate proactive, sustained efforts in areas at high risk for transmission, has emerged. In this article, the authors 1) outline this targeted, proactive intervention strategy, within the context of dengue epidemiology, the dynamics of its transmission, and current Aedes control strategies, and 2) provide support from published literature for the need to empirically test its impact on dengue transmission as well as on the size of disease outbreaks. As chikungunya and Zika viruses continue to expand their range, the need for a science-based, proactive approach for control of urban Aedes spp. mosquitoes will become a central focus of integrated disease management planning