Comparison of Two Detailed Models of Aedes aegypti Population Dynamics

The success of control programs for mosquito-­borne diseases can be enhanced by crucial information provided by models of the mosquito populations. Models, however, can differ in their structure, complexity, and biological assumptions, and these differences impact their predictions. Unfortunately, it is typically difficult to determine why two complex models make different predictions because we lack structured side-­by-­side comparisons of models using comparable parameterization. Here, we present a detailed comparison of two complex, spatially explicit, stochastic models of the population dynamics of Aedes aegypti, the main vector of dengue, yellow fever, chikungunya, and Zika viruses. Both models describe the mosquito?s biological and ecological characteristics, but differ in complexity and specific assumptions. We compare the predictions of these models in two selected climatic settings: a tropical and weakly seasonal climate in Iquitos, Peru, and a temperate and strongly seasonal climate in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Both models were calibrated to operate at identical average densities in unperturbedconditions in both settings, by adjusting parameters regulating densities in each model (number of larval development sites and amount of nutritional resources). We show that the models differ in their sensitivityto environmental conditions (temperature and rainfall) and trace differences to specific model assumptions.Temporal dynamics of the Ae. aegypti populations predicted by the two models differ more markedly under strongly seasonal Buenos Aires conditions. We use both models to simulate killing of larvae and/or adults with insecticides in selected areas. We show that predictions of population recovery by the models differ substantially, an effect likely related to model assumptions regarding larval development and (director delayed) density dependence. Our methodical comparison provides important guidance for model improvement by identifying key areas of Ae. aegypti ecology that substantially affect model predictions, and revealing the impact of model assumptions on population dynamics predictions in unperturbed and perturbed conditions.Fil: Legros, Mathieu. University of North Carolina; Estados UnidosFil: Otero, Marcelo Javier. Universidad de Buenos Aires; ArgentinaFil: Romeo Aznar, Victoria Teresa. Universidad de Buenos Aires; ArgentinaFil: Solari, Hernan Gustavo. Universidad de Buenos Aires; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Instituto de Física de Buenos Aires. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Física de Buenos Aires; ArgentinaFil: Gould, Fred. National Institutes of Health; Estados UnidosFil: Lloyd, Alun L.. National Institutes of Health; Estados Unido

Fur seal microbiota are shaped by the social and physical environment, show mother‐offspring similarities and are associated with host genetic quality

Despite an increasing appreciation of the importance of host‐microbe interactions in ecological and evolutionary processes, the factors shaping microbial communities in wild populations remain poorly understood. We therefore exploited a natural experiment provided by two adjacent Antarctic fur seal (Arctocephalus gazella) colonies of high and low social density and combined 16S rRNA metabarcoding with microsatellite profiling of mother‐offspring pairs to investigate environmental and genetic influences on skin microbial communities. Seal‐associated bacterial communities differed profoundly between the two colonies, despite the host populations themselves being genetically undifferentiated. Consistent with the hypothesis that social stress depresses bacterial diversity, we found that microbial alpha diversity was significantly lower in the high‐density colony. Seals from one of the colonies that contained a stream also carried a subset of freshwater‐associated bacteria, indicative of an influence of the physical environment. Furthermore, mothers and their offspring shared similar microbial communities, in support of the notion that microbes may facilitate mother‐offspring recognition. Finally, a significant negative association was found between bacterial diversity and heterozygosity, a measure of host genetic quality. Our study thus uncovers a complex interplay between environmental and host genetic effects, while also providing empirical support for the leash model of host control, which posits that bacterial communities are driven not only by bottom‐up species interactions, but also by top‐down host regulation. Taken together, our findings have broad implications for understanding host‐microbe interactions as well as prokaryotic diversity in general

Complex population dynamics as a competition between multiple time-scale phenomena

The role of the selection pressure and mutation amplitude on the behavior of a single-species population evolving on a two-dimensional lattice, in a periodically changing environment, is studied both analytically and numerically. The mean-field level of description allows to highlight the delicate interplay between the different time-scale processes in the resulting complex dynamics of the system. We clarify the influence of the amplitude and period of the environmental changes on the critical value of the selection pressure corresponding to a phase-transition "extinct-alive" of the population. However, the intrinsic stochasticity and the dynamically-built in correlations among the individuals, as well as the role of the mutation-induced variety in population's evolution are not appropriately accounted for. A more refined level of description, which is an individual-based one, has to be considered. The inherent fluctuations do not destroy the phase transition "extinct-alive", and the mutation amplitude is strongly influencing the value of the critical selection pressure. The phase diagram in the plane of the population's parameters -- selection and mutation is discussed as a function of the environmental variation characteristics. The differences between a smooth variation of the environment and an abrupt, catastrophic change are also addressesd.Comment: 15 pages, 12 figures. Accepted for publication in Phys. Rev.

Prospects for Gene lntrogression from Hordeum bulbosum L. into Barley (H. vulgare L.).

Hybridizations between Hordeum vulgare L. (cultivated barley) and H. bulbosum L. have been performed over many years with two aims. First, the production of doubled haploid barley cultivars (Kasha and Kao 1970); second, the transfer of desirable traits such as resistance to fungal and viral pathogens from the wild species into barley. Apart from the report of an occasional recombinant (Xu and Kasha 1992; Pickering et al 1994), successful gene introgression has been hampered by several barriers. In this report we will describe recent progress in overcoming these barriers

Extracellular nucleases and extracellular DNA play important roles in Vibrio cholerae biofilm formation

Biofilms are a preferred mode of survival for many microorganisms including Vibrio cholerae, the causative agent of the severe secretory diarrhoeal disease cholera. The ability of the facultative human pathogen V. cholerae to form biofilms is a key factor for persistence in aquatic ecosystems and biofilms act as a source for new outbreaks. Thus, a better understanding of biofilm formation and transmission of V. cholerae is an important target to control the disease. So far the Vibrio exopolysaccharide was the only known constituent of the biofilm matrix. In this study we identify and characterize extracellular DNA as a component of the Vibrio biofilm matrix. Furthermore, we show that extracellular DNA is modulated and controlled by the two extracellular nucleases Dns and Xds. Our results indicate that extracellular DNA and the extracellular nucleases are involved in diverse processes including the development of a typical biofilm architecture, nutrient acquisition, detachment from biofilms and the colonization fitness of biofilm clumps after ingestion by the host. This study provides new insights into biofilm development and transmission of biofilm-derived V. cholerae

Assessing the impact of university students’ involvement in the first year of Nurture-U: a national student wellbeing research project

This is the final version. Available on open access from BMC via the DOI in this recordAvailability of data and materials: Anonymised data is available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.Background Students experience lower levels of wellbeing than the general, age-matched population. A whole-university approach to mental health is encouraged, which must work for individuals from all backgrounds and experiences. Student input is vital in researching and designing these solutions. Nurture-U is a national, large-scale research project exploring better ways to support student wellbeing, with a Student Advisory Group (SAG) that feeds into project decision making. With the first year of the project now completed, we now critically review the processes and effectiveness of the SAG and how well the project is engaging and working with students. Methods Assessment of the SAG’s impact on the project, the student advisors, and the researchers was undertaken through a content analysis of team meetings and collection of advisor and researcher feedback using the Patient Engagement Quality Guidance Tool. Results 142 students worked on different tasks in the first year of the Nurture-U project. The SAG was involved in the project branding and marketing, and in the development and co-design of interventions and tools. They reported a positive experience, with involvement boosting confidence. They felt valued but reported not always knowing whether their input was implemented in final decisions. They also recommended different methods of providing feedback. Researchers found student input beneficial to communicate the viewpoint of a different generation and increase the relevance of the study, but also suggested improvements for communication between the research team and the student group. Conclusions This critical reflection of the SAG’s public advisor role in this large-scale research project was important in highlighting what worked well and areas to improve. As the project unfolds, we aim to adapt our methods of student input, increase the transparency of decision-making processes, and in turn increase student-led decision making within the project.Medical Research Council (MRC

Abnormal expression of p27kip1 protein in levator ani muscle of aging women with pelvic floor disorders – a relationship to the cellular differentiation and degeneration

BACKGROUND: Pelvic floor disorders affect almost 50% of aging women. An important role in the pelvic floor support belongs to the levator ani muscle. The p27/kip1 (p27) protein, multifunctional cyclin-dependent kinase inhibitor, shows changing expression in differentiating skeletal muscle cells during development, and relatively high levels of p27 RNA were detected in the normal human skeletal muscles. METHODS: Biopsy samples of levator ani muscle were obtained from 22 symptomatic patients with stress urinary incontinence, pelvic organ prolapse, and overlaps (age range 38–74), and nine asymptomatic women (age 31–49). Cryostat sections were investigated for p27 protein expression and type I (slow twitch) and type II (fast twitch) fibers. RESULTS: All fibers exhibited strong plasma membrane (and nuclear) p27 protein expression. cytoplasmic p27 expression was virtually absent in asymptomatic women. In perimenopausal symptomatic patients (ages 38–55), muscle fibers showed hypertrophy and moderate cytoplasmic p27 staining accompanied by diminution of type II fibers. Older symptomatic patients (ages 57–74) showed cytoplasmic p27 overexpression accompanied by shrinking, cytoplasmic vacuolization and fragmentation of muscle cells. The plasma membrane and cytoplasmic p27 expression was not unique to the muscle cells. Under certain circumstances, it was also detected in other cell types (epithelium of ectocervix and luteal cells). CONCLUSIONS: This is the first report on the unusual (plasma membrane and cytoplasmic) expression of p27 protein in normal and abnormal human striated muscle cells in vivo. Our data indicate that pelvic floor disorders are in perimenopausal patients associated with an appearance of moderate cytoplasmic p27 expression, accompanying hypertrophy and transition of type II into type I fibers. The patients in advanced postmenopause show shrinking and fragmentation of muscle fibers associated with strong cytoplasmic p27 expression

Punctuated equilibria and 1/f noise in a biological coevolution model with individual-based dynamics

We present a study by linear stability analysis and large-scale Monte Carlo simulations of a simple model of biological coevolution. Selection is provided through a reproduction probability that contains quenched, random interspecies interactions, while genetic variation is provided through a low mutation rate. Both selection and mutation act on individual organisms. Consistent with some current theories of macroevolutionary dynamics, the model displays intermittent, statistically self-similar behavior with punctuated equilibria. The probability density for the lifetimes of ecological communities is well approximated by a power law with exponent near -2, and the corresponding power spectral densities show 1/f noise (flicker noise) over several decades. The long-lived communities (quasi-steady states) consist of a relatively small number of mutualistically interacting species, and they are surrounded by a ``protection zone'' of closely related genotypes that have a very low probability of invading the resident community. The extent of the protection zone affects the stability of the community in a way analogous to the height of the free-energy barrier surrounding a metastable state in a physical system. Measures of biological diversity are on average stationary with no discernible trends, even over our very long simulation runs of approximately 3.4x10^7 generations.Comment: 20 pages RevTex. Minor revisions consistent with published versio