Economic and social factors in designing disease control strategies for epidemics on networks

Models for control of epidemics on local, global and small-world networks are considered, with only partial information accessible about the status of individuals and their connections. The main goal of an effective control measure is to stop the epidemic at a lowest possible cost, including treatment and cost necessary to track the disease spread. We show that delay in detection of infectious individuals and presence of long-range links are the most important factors determining the cost. However, the details of long-range links are usually the least-known element of the social interactions due to their occasional character and potentially short life-span. We show that under some conditions on the probability of disease spread, it is advisable to attempt to track those links. Thus, collecting some additional knowledge about the network structure might be beneficial to ensure a successful and cost-effective control.Comment: To be published in Acta Phys. Pol.

A study of compressible turbulent boundary layers using the method of invariant modeling

Model equations for studying compressible turbulen boundary layer

Assessment of Management Effectiveness for the Strategic Assessment of the Great Barrier Reef Region

[Extract] As part of the strategic assessment of the Great Barrier Reef World Heritage Area and adjacent coastal zone, the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority is required to assess the effectiveness of its management arrangements to protect the values that underpin matters of national environmental significance within the Great Barrier Reef Region.Title page: Prepared for the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority (GBRMPA) -- 19 March 2013 -- UniQuest Project No: C0094

Will regulatory and financial considerations dampen innovation in the clinical microbiology laboratory?

Over a million prosthetic joints are placed in patients in the United States annually. Of those that fail, 25% will be due to infection, with an estimated cost approaching 1 billion dollars. Despite the clinical and economic importance of these infections, the techniques for their detection are relatively insensitive. An innovative method for detecting these infections by using blood culture bottles (BCB) to culture specimens of periprosthetic tissue (PPT) was described in a recent article [T. N. Peel, et al., mBio 7(1):e01776-15, 2016, doi:10.1128/mBio.01776-15]. There are two potential stumbling blocks to the widespread implementation of this innovation. First, the FDA judges such an application of BCB as an “off-label use” and as such, a laboratorydeveloped test (LDT). LDTs are coming under greater scrutiny by the FDA and may require extensive, costly validation studies in laboratories that adopt this methodology. Second, the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services has established a Hospital Acquired Condition Reduction Act under which institutions performing in the lowest quartile forfeit 1% of their Medicare reimbursement. Hospital-acquired infections are an important component of this quality metric. Although prosthetic joint infection (PJI) rates are not currently a hospital quality metric, given their cost and increasing frequency, it is reasonable to expect that they may become one. Will those with financial oversight allow an innovative technique that will require an expensive validation and may put the institution at risk for loss of CMS reimbursement

Controlling disease spread on networks with incomplete knowledge

Models for control of highly infectious diseases on local, small-world, and scale-free networks are considered, with only partial information accessible about the status of individuals and their connections. We consider a case when individuals can be infectious before showing symptoms and thus before detection. For small to moderately severe incidence of infection with a small number of nonlocal links, it is possible to control disease spread by using purely local methods applied in a neighborhood centered around a detected infectious individual. There exists an optimal radius for such a control neighborhood leading to the lowest severity of the epidemic in terms of economic costs associated with disease and treatment. The efficiency of a local control strategy is very sensitive to the choice of the radius. Below the optimal radius, the local strategy is unsuccessful; the disease spreads throughout the system, necessitating treatment of the whole population. At the other extreme, a strategy involving a neighborhood that is too large controls the disease but is wasteful of resources. It is not possible to stop an epidemic on scale-free networks by preventive actions, unless a large proportion of the population is treated

Pseudoconvex domains spread over complex homogeneous manifolds

Using the concept of inner integral curves defined by Hirschowitz we generalize a recent result by Kim, Levenberg and Yamaguchi concerning the obstruction of a pseudoconvex domain spread over a complex homogeneous manifold to be Stein. This is then applied to study the holomorphic reduction of pseudoconvex complex homogeneous manifolds X=G/H. Under the assumption that G is solvable or reductive we prove that X is the total space of a G-equivariant holomorphic fiber bundle over a Stein manifold such that all holomorphic functions on the fiber are constant.Comment: 21 page

Negotiating professional and social voices in research principles and practice

This paper draws on work conducted for a qualitative interview based study which explores the gendered racialised and professional identifications of health and social care professionals. Participants for the project were drawn from the professional executive committees of recently formed Primary Care Trusts. The paper discusses how the feminist psychosocial methodological approach developed for the project is theoretically, practically and ethically useful in exploring the voices of those in positions of relative power in relation to both health and social care services and the social relations of gender and ethnicity. The approach draws on psychodynamic accounts of (defended) subjectivity and the feminist work of Carol Gilligan on a voice-centred relational methodology. Coupling the feminist with the psychosocial facilitates an emphasis on voice and dialogic communication between participant and researcher not always captured in psychosocial approaches which tend towards favouring the interviewer as ‘good listener’. This emphasis on dialogue is important in research contexts where prior and ongoing relationships with professional participants make it difficult and indeed undesirable for researchers to maintain silence

Importance of food-demand management for climate mitigation

Recent studies show that current trends in yield improvement will not be sufficient to meet projected global food demand in 2050, and suggest that a further expansion of agricultural area will be required. However, agriculture is the main driver of losses of biodiversity and a major contributor to climate change and pollution, and so further expansion is undesirable. The usual proposed alternative - intensification with increased resource use - also has negative effects. It is therefore imperative to find ways to achieve global food security without expanding crop or pastureland and without increasing greenhouse gas emissions. Some authors have emphasised a role for sustainable intensification in closing global 'yield gaps' between the currently realised and potentially achievable yields. However, in this paper we use a transparent, data-driven model, to show that even if yield gaps are closed, the projected demand will drive further agricultural expansion. There are, however, options for reduction on the demand side that are rarely considered. In the second part of this paper we quantify the potential for demand-side mitigation options, and show that improved diets and decreases in food waste are essential to deliver emissions reductions, and to provide global food security in 2050.This work was funded by a grant to the University of Cambridge from BP as part of their Energy Sustainability Challenge.This is the accepted manuscript version. The final version is available from Nature Climate Change at http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate2353.html