Challenges in Complex Systems Science

FuturICT foundations are social science, complex systems science, and ICT. The main concerns and challenges in the science of complex systems in the context of FuturICT are laid out in this paper with special emphasis on the Complex Systems route to Social Sciences. This include complex systems having: many heterogeneous interacting parts; multiple scales; complicated transition laws; unexpected or unpredicted emergence; sensitive dependence on initial conditions; path-dependent dynamics; networked hierarchical connectivities; interaction of autonomous agents; self-organisation; non-equilibrium dynamics; combinatorial explosion; adaptivity to changing environments; co-evolving subsystems; ill-defined boundaries; and multilevel dynamics. In this context, science is seen as the process of abstracting the dynamics of systems from data. This presents many challenges including: data gathering by large-scale experiment, participatory sensing and social computation, managing huge distributed dynamic and heterogeneous databases; moving from data to dynamical models, going beyond correlations to cause-effect relationships, understanding the relationship between simple and comprehensive models with appropriate choices of variables, ensemble modeling and data assimilation, modeling systems of systems of systems with many levels between micro and macro; and formulating new approaches to prediction, forecasting, and risk, especially in systems that can reflect on and change their behaviour in response to predictions, and systems whose apparently predictable behaviour is disrupted by apparently unpredictable rare or extreme events. These challenges are part of the FuturICT agenda

Determining EMIC Wave Vector Properties Through Multi-Point Measurements: The Wave Curl Analysis

Electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves play important roles in particle loss processes in the magnetosphere. Determining the evolution of EMIC waves as they propagate and how this evolution affects wave-particle interactions requires accurate knowledge of the wave vector, k. We present a technique using the curl of the wave magnetic field to determine k observationally, enabled by the unique configuration and instrumentation of the Magnetospheric MultiScale (MMS) spacecraft. The wave curl analysis is demonstrated for synthetic arbitrary electromagnetic waves with varying properties typical of observed EMIC waves. The method is also applied to an EMIC wave interval observed by MMS on October 28, 2015. The derived wave properties and k from the wave curl analysis for the observed EMIC wave are compared with the Waves in Homogenous, Anisotropic, Multi-component Plasma (WHAMP) wave dispersion solution and with results from other single- and multi-spacecraft techniques. We find good agreement between k from the wave curl analysis, k determined from other observational techniques, and k determined from WHAMP. Additionally, the variation of k due to the time and frequency intervals used in the wave curl analysis is explored. This exploration demonstrates that the method is robust when applied to a wave containing at least 3–4 wave periods and over a rather wide frequency range encompassing the peak wave emission. These results provide confidence that we are able to directly determine the wave vector properties using this multi-spacecraft method implementation, enabling systematic studies of EMIC wave k properties with MMS

The next detectors for gravitational wave astronomy

This paper focuses on the next detectors for gravitational wave astronomy which will be required after the current ground based detectors have completed their initial observations, and probably achieved the first direct detection of gravitational waves. The next detectors will need to have greater sensitivity, while also enabling the world array of detectors to have improved angular resolution to allow localisation of signal sources. Sect. 1 of this paper begins by reviewing proposals for the next ground based detectors, and presents an analysis of the sensitivity of an 8 km armlength detector, which is proposed as a safe and cost-effective means to attain a 4-fold improvement in sensitivity. The scientific benefits of creating a pair of such detectors in China and Australia is emphasised. Sect. 2 of this paper discusses the high performance suspension systems for test masses that will be an essential component for future detectors, while sect. 3 discusses solutions to the problem of Newtonian noise which arise from fluctuations in gravity gradient forces acting on test masses. Such gravitational perturbations cannot be shielded, and set limits to low frequency sensitivity unless measured and suppressed. Sects. 4 and 5 address critical operational technologies that will be ongoing issues in future detectors. Sect. 4 addresses the design of thermal compensation systems needed in all high optical power interferometers operating at room temperature. Parametric instability control is addressed in sect. 5. Only recently proven to occur in Advanced LIGO, parametric instability phenomenon brings both risks and opportunities for future detectors. The path to future enhancements of detectors will come from quantum measurement technologies. Sect. 6 focuses on the use of optomechanical devices for obtaining enhanced sensitivity, while sect. 7 reviews a range of quantum measurement options

An Accurate Mass Determination for Kepler-1655b, a Moderately Irradiated World with a Significant Volatile Envelope

Funding: A.C.C. acknowledges support from STFC consolidated grant number ST/M001296/1. The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant Agreement No. 313014 (ETAEARTH).We present the confirmation of a small, moderately-irradiated (F= 155±7 F⊕) Neptune with a substantial gas envelope in a P=11.8728787±0.0000085-day orbit about a quiet, Sun-like G0V star Kepler-1655. Based on our analysis of the Kepler light curve, we determined Kepler-1655b’s radius to be 2.213±0.082 R⊕. We acquired 95 high-resolution spectra with TNG/HARPS-N, enabling us to characterize the host star and determine an accurate mass for Kepler-1655b of 5.0±^3.1_2.8 M⊕ via Gaussian-process regression. Our mass determination excludes an Earth-like composition with 98% confidence. Kepler-1655b falls on the upper edge of the evaporation valley, in the relatively sparsely occupied transition region between rocky and gas-rich planets. It is therefore part of a population of planets that we should actively seek to characterize further.PostprintPeer reviewe

Wikis, blogs and podcasts: a new generation of Web-based tools for virtual collaborative clinical practice and education

BACKGROUND: We have witnessed a rapid increase in the use of Web-based 'collaborationware' in recent years. These Web 2.0 applications, particularly wikis, blogs and podcasts, have been increasingly adopted by many online health-related professional and educational services. Because of their ease of use and rapidity of deployment, they offer the opportunity for powerful information sharing and ease of collaboration. Wikis are Web sites that can be edited by anyone who has access to them. The word 'blog' is a contraction of 'Web Log' – an online Web journal that can offer a resource rich multimedia environment. Podcasts are repositories of audio and video materials that can be "pushed" to subscribers, even without user intervention. These audio and video files can be downloaded to portable media players that can be taken anywhere, providing the potential for "anytime, anywhere" learning experiences (mobile learning). DISCUSSION: Wikis, blogs and podcasts are all relatively easy to use, which partly accounts for their proliferation. The fact that there are many free and Open Source versions of these tools may also be responsible for their explosive growth. Thus it would be relatively easy to implement any or all within a Health Professions' Educational Environment. Paradoxically, some of their disadvantages also relate to their openness and ease of use. With virtually anybody able to alter, edit or otherwise contribute to the collaborative Web pages, it can be problematic to gauge the reliability and accuracy of such resources. While arguably, the very process of collaboration leads to a Darwinian type 'survival of the fittest' content within a Web page, the veracity of these resources can be assured through careful monitoring, moderation, and operation of the collaborationware in a closed and secure digital environment. Empirical research is still needed to build our pedagogic evidence base about the different aspects of these tools in the context of medical/health education. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION: If effectively deployed, wikis, blogs and podcasts could offer a way to enhance students', clinicians' and patients' learning experiences, and deepen levels of learners' engagement and collaboration within digital learning environments. Therefore, research should be conducted to determine the best ways to integrate these tools into existing e-Learning programmes for students, health professionals and patients, taking into account the different, but also overlapping, needs of these three audience classes and the opportunities of virtual collaboration between them. Of particular importance is research into novel integrative applications, to serve as the "glue" to bind the different forms of Web-based collaborationware synergistically in order to provide a coherent wholesome learning experience

Parent-of-origin-specific allelic associations among 106 genomic loci for age at menarche.

Age at menarche is a marker of timing of puberty in females. It varies widely between individuals, is a heritable trait and is associated with risks for obesity, type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease, breast cancer and all-cause mortality. Studies of rare human disorders of puberty and animal models point to a complex hypothalamic-pituitary-hormonal regulation, but the mechanisms that determine pubertal timing and underlie its links to disease risk remain unclear. Here, using genome-wide and custom-genotyping arrays in up to 182,416 women of European descent from 57 studies, we found robust evidence (P < 5 × 10(-8)) for 123 signals at 106 genomic loci associated with age at menarche. Many loci were associated with other pubertal traits in both sexes, and there was substantial overlap with genes implicated in body mass index and various diseases, including rare disorders of puberty. Menarche signals were enriched in imprinted regions, with three loci (DLK1-WDR25, MKRN3-MAGEL2 and KCNK9) demonstrating parent-of-origin-specific associations concordant with known parental expression patterns. Pathway analyses implicated nuclear hormone receptors, particularly retinoic acid and γ-aminobutyric acid-B2 receptor signalling, among novel mechanisms that regulate pubertal timing in humans. Our findings suggest a genetic architecture involving at least hundreds of common variants in the coordinated timing of the pubertal transition

FGF receptor genes and breast cancer susceptibility: results from the Breast Cancer Association Consortium

Background:Breast cancer is one of the most common malignancies in women. Genome-wide association studies have identified FGFR2 as a breast cancer susceptibility gene. Common variation in other fibroblast growth factor (FGF) receptors might also modify risk. We tested this hypothesis by studying genotyped single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and imputed SNPs in FGFR1, FGFR3, FGFR4 and FGFRL1 in the Breast Cancer Association Consortium. Methods:Data were combined from 49 studies, including 53 835 cases and 50 156 controls, of which 89 050 (46 450 cases and 42 600 controls) were of European ancestry, 12 893 (6269 cases and 6624 controls) of Asian and 2048 (1116 cases and 932 controls) of African ancestry. Associations with risk of breast cancer, overall and by disease sub-type, were assessed using unconditional logistic regression. Results:Little evidence of association with breast cancer risk was observed for SNPs in the FGF receptor genes. The strongest evidence in European women was for rs743682 in FGFR3; the estimated per-allele odds ratio was 1.05 (95 confidence interval=1.02-1.09, P=0.0020), which is substantially lower than that observed for SNPs in FGFR2. Conclusion:Our results suggest that common variants in the other FGF receptors are not associated with risk of breast cancer to the degree observed for FGFR2. © 2014 Cancer Research UK