How structurally stable are global socioeconomic systems?

The stability analysis of socioeconomic systems has been centered on answering whether small perturbations when a system is in a given quantitative state will push the system permanently to a different quantitative state. However, typically the quantitative state of socioeconomic systems is subject to constant change. Therefore, a key stability question that has been under-investigated is how strong the conditions of a system itself can change before the system moves to a qualitatively different behavior, i.e., how structurally stable the systems is. Here, we introduce a framework to investigate the structural stability of socioeconomic systems formed by the network of interactions among agents competing for resources. We measure the structural stability of the system as the range of conditions in the distribution and availability of resources compatible with the qualitative behavior in which all the constituent agents can be self-sustained across time. To illustrate our framework, we study an empirical representation of the global socioeconomic system formed by countries sharing and competing for multinational companies used as proxy for resources. We demonstrate that the structural stability of the system is inversely associated with the level of competition and the level of heterogeneity in the distribution of resources. Importantly, we show that the qualitative behavior of the observed global socioeconomic system is highly sensitive to changes in the distribution of resources. We believe this work provides a methodological basis to develop sustainable strategies for socioeconomic systems subject to constantly changing conditions

How structurally stable are global socioeconomic systems?

The stability analysis of socioeconomic systems has been centred on answering whether small perturbations when a system is in a given quantitative state will push the system permanently to a different quantitative state. However, typically the quantitative state of socioeconomic systems is subject to constant change. Therefore, a key stability question that has been under-investigated is how strongly the conditions of a system itself can change before the system moves to a qualitatively different behaviour, i.e. how structurally stable the systems is. Here, we introduce a framework to investigate the structural stability of socioeconomic systems formed by a network of interactions among agents competing for resources. We measure the structural stability of the system as the range of conditions in the distribution and availability of resources compatible with the qualitative behaviour in which all the constituent agents can be self-sustained across time. To illustrate our framework, we study an empirical representation of the global socioeconomic system formed by countries sharing and competing for multinational companies used as proxy for resources. We demonstrate that the structural stability of the system is inversely associated with the level of competition and the level of heterogeneity in the distribution of resources. Importantly, we show that the qualitative behaviour of the observed global socioeconomic system is highly sensitive to changes in the distribution of resources. We believe that this work provides a methodological basis to develop sustainable strategies for socioeconomic systems subject to constantly changing conditions

Stock fluctuations are correlated and amplified across networks of interlocking directorates

Traded corporations are required by law to have a majority of outside directors on their board. This requirement allows the existence of directors who sit on the board of two or more corporations at the same time, generating what is commonly known as interlocking directorates. While research has shown that networks of interlocking directorates facilitate the transmission of information between corporations, little is known about the extent to which such interlocking networks can explain the fluctuations of stock price returns. Yet, this is a special concern since the risk of amplifying stock fluctuations is latent. To answer this question, here we analyze the board composition, traders’ perception, and stock performance of more than 1,500 US traded corporations from 2007-2011. First, we find that the fewer degrees of separation between two corporations in the interlocking network, the stronger the temporal correlation between their stock price returns. Second, we find that the centrality of traded corporations in the interlocking network correlates with the frequency at which financial traders talk about such corporations, and this frequency is in turn proportional to the corresponding traded volume. Third, we show that the centrality of corporations was negatively associated with their stock performance in 2008, the year of the big financial crash. These results suggest that the strategic decisions made by interlocking directorates are strongly followed by stock analysts and have the potential to correlate and amplify the movement of stock prices during financial crashes. These results may have relevant implications for scholars, investors, and regulators

Stock fluctuations are correlated and amplified across networks of interlocking directorates

Traded corporations are required by law to have a majority of outside directors on their board. This requirement allows the existence of directors who sit on the board of two or more corporations at the same time, generating what is commonly known as interlocking directorates. While research has shown that networks of interlocking directorates facilitate the transmission of information between corporations, little is known about the extent to which such interlocking networks can explain the fluctuations of stock price returns. Yet, this is a special concern since the risk of amplifying stock fluctuations is latent. To answer this question, here we analyze the board composition, traders' perception, and stock performance of more than 1500 US traded corporations from 2007-2011. First, we find that the fewer degrees of separation between two corporations in the interlocking network, the stronger the temporal correlation between their stock price returns. Second, we find that the centrality of traded corporations in the interlocking network correlates with the frequency at which financial traders talk about such corporations, and this frequency is in turn proportional to the corresponding traded volume. Third, we show that the centrality of corporations was negatively associated with their stock performance in 2008, the year of the big financial crash. These results suggest that the strategic decisions made by interlocking directorates are strongly followed by stock analysts and have the potential to correlate and amplify the movement of stock prices during financial crashes. These results may have relevant implications for scholars, investors, and regulators

Ecogeographical rules and the macroecology of food webs

AimHow do factors such as space, time, climate and other ecological drivers influence food web structure and dynamics? Collections of well‐studied food webs and replicate food webs from the same system that span biogeographical and ecological gradients now enable detailed, quantitative investigation of such questions and help integrate food web ecology and macroecology. Here, we integrate macroecology and food web ecology by focusing on how ecogeographical rules [the latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG), Bergmann’s rule, the island rule and Rapoport’s rule] are associated with the architecture of food webs.LocationGlobal.Time periodCurrent.Major taxa studiedAll taxa.MethodsWe discuss the implications of each ecogeographical rule for food webs, present predictions for how food web structure will vary with each rule, assess empirical support where available, and discuss how food webs may influence ecogeographical rules. Finally, we recommend systems and approaches for further advancing this research agenda.ResultsWe derived testable predictions for some ecogeographical rules (e.g. LDG, Rapoport’s rule), while for others (e.g., Bergmann’s and island rules) it is less clear how we would expect food webs to change over macroecological scales. Based on the LDG, we found weak support for both positive and negative relationships between food chain length and latitude and for increased generality and linkage density at higher latitudes. Based on Rapoport’s rule, we found support for the prediction that species turnover in food webs is inversely related to latitude.Main conclusionsThe macroecology of food webs goes beyond traditional approaches to biodiversity at macroecological scales by focusing on trophic interactions among species. The collection of food web data for different types of ecosystems across biogeographical gradients is key to advance this research agenda. Further, considering food web interactions as a selection pressure that drives or disrupts ecogeographical rules has the potential to address both mechanisms of and deviations from these macroecological relationships. For these reasons, further integration of macroecology and food webs will help ecologists better understand the assembly, maintenance and change of ecosystems across space and time.Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/151318/1/geb12925_am.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/151318/2/geb12925.pd

The architecture of weighted mutualistic networks

Several ecosystem services directly depend on mutualistic interactions. In species rich communities, these interactions can be studied using network theory. Current knowledge of mutualistic networks is based mainly on binary links; however, little is known about the role played by the weights of the interactions between species. What new information can be extracted by analyzing weighted mutualistic networks? In performing an exhaustive analysis of the topological properties of 29 weighted mutualistic networks, our results show that the generalist species, defined as those with a larger number of interactions in a network, also have the strongest interactions. Though most interactions of generalists are with specialists, the strongest interactions occur between generalists. As a result and by defining binary and weighted clustering coefficients for bipartite networks, we demonstrate that generalists form strongly-interconnected groups of species. The existence of these strong clusters reinforces the idea that generalist species govern the coevolution of the whole community. © 2011 The Authors. Oikos © 2011 Nordic Society Oikos.Peer Reviewe

Generic Emergence of Modularity in Spatial Networks

Landscape's spatial structure has vast implications for the dynamics and distribution of species populations and ecological communities. However, the characterization of the structure of spatial networks has not received nearly as much attention as networks of species interactions counterparts. Recent experiments show the dynamical implications of modularity to buffer perturbations, and theory shows that several other processes might be impacted if spatial networks were modular, from disease transmission to gene flow. Yet the question is, are spatial networks actually modular? Even though some case studies have found modular structures, we lack a general answer to that question. Here, I show that modularity is a naturally emergent property of spatial networks. This finding is further reinforced by analyzing real patchy habitats. Furthermore, I show that there is no need for any other biological process other than dispersal in order to generate a significantly modular spatial network. Modularity is explained by the spatial heterogeneity in the density of habitat fragments. The fact that spatial networks are intrinsically modular might have direct consequences for population and evolutionary dynamics. Modules define the spatial limits of populations and the role each habitat fragment plays in ecological dynamics; they become the relevant scale at which a multitude of processes occur.ISSN:2045-232

Competition alters species’ plastic and genetic response to environmental change

Species react to environmental change via plastic and evolutionary responses. While both of them determine species’ survival, most studies quantify these responses individually. As species occur in communities, competing species may further influence their respective response to environmental change. Yet, how environmental change and competing species combined shape plastic and genetic responses to environmental change remains unclear. Quantifying how competition alters plastic and genetic responses of species to environmental change requires a trait-based, community and evolutionary ecological approach. We exposed unicellular aquatic organisms to long-term selection of increasing salinity—representing a common and relevant environmental change. We assessed plastic and genetic contributions to phenotypic change in biomass, cell shape, and dispersal ability along increasing levels of salinity in the presence and absence of competition. Trait changes in response to salinity were mainly due to mean trait evolution, and differed whether species evolved in the presence or absence of competition. Our results show that species’ evolutionary and plastic responses to environmental change depended both on competition and the magnitude of environmental change, ultimately determining species persistence. Our results suggest that understanding plastic and genetic responses to environmental change within a community will improve predictions of species’ persistence to environmental change

Spatial network structure and metapopulation persistence

We explore the relationship between network structure and dynamics by relating the topology of spatial networks with its underlying metapopulation abundance. Metapopulation abundance is largely affected by the architecture of the spatial network, although this effect depends on demographic parameters here represented by the extinction-to-colonization ratio (e/c). Thus, for moderate to large e/c-values, regional abundance grows with the heterogeneity of the network, with uniform or random networks having the lowest regional abundances, and scale-free networks having the largest abundance. However, the ranking is reversed for low extinction probabilities, with heterogeneous networks showing the lowest relative abundance. We further explore the mechanisms underlying such results by relating a node’s incidence (average number of time steps the node is occupied) with its degree, and with the average degree of the nodes it interacts with. These results demonstrate the importance of spatial network structure to understanding metapopulation abundance, and serve to determine under what circumstances information on network structure should be complemented with information on the species life-history traits to understand persistence in heterogeneous environmentsPeer reviewe

Distinguishing time-delayed causal interactions using convergent cross mapping

An important problem across many scientific fields is the identification of causal effects from observational data alone. Recent methods (convergent cross mapping, CCM) have made substantial progress on this problem by applying the idea of nonlinear attractor reconstruction to time series data. Here, we expand upon the technique of CCM by explicitly considering time lags. Applying this extended method to representative examples (model simulations, a laboratory predator-prey experiment, temperature and greenhouse gas reconstructions from the Vostok ice core, and longterm ecological time series collected in the Southern California Bight), we demonstrate the ability to identify different time-delayed interactions, distinguish between synchrony induced by strong unidirectional-forcing and true bidirectional causality, and resolve transitive causal chainsPeer reviewe