The development and validation of a multivariable model to predict whether patients referred for total knee replacement are suitable surgical candidates at the time of initial consultation

Background: In previous studies, 50%-70% of patients referred to orthopedic surgeons for total knee replacement (TKR) were not surgical candidates at the time of initial assessment. The purpose of our study was to identify and cross-validate patient self-reported predictors of suitability for TKR and to determine the clinical utility of a predictive model to guide the timing and appropriateness of referral to a surgeon. Methods: We assessed pre-consultation patient data as well as the surgeon\u27s findings and post-consultation recommendations. We used multivariate logistic regression to detect self-reported items that could identify suitable surgical candidates. Results: Patients\u27 willingness to undergo surgery, higher rating of pain, greater physical function, previous intra-articular injections and patient age were the factors predictive of patients being offered and electing to undergo TKR. Conclusion: The application of the model developed in our study would effectively reduce the proportion of nonsurgical referrals by 25%, while identifying the vast majority of surgical candidates (\u3e 90%). Using patient-reported information, we can correctly predict the outcome of specialist consultation for TKR in 70% of cases. To reduce long waits for first consultation with a surgeon, it may be possible to use these items to educate and guide referring clinicians and patients to understand when specialist consultation is the next step in managing the patient with severe osteoarthritis of the knee

Total knee replacement after high tibial osteotomy: Time-to-event analysis and predictors

© 2021 Joule Inc. or its licensors. BACKGROUND: An important aim of high tibial osteotomy (HTO) is to prevent or delay the need for total knee replacement (TKR). We sought to estimate the frequency and timing of conversion from HTO to TKR and the factors associated with it. METHODS: We prospectively evaluated patients with osteoarthritis (OA) of the knee who underwent medial opening wedge HTO from 2002 to 2014 and analyzed the cumulative incidence of TKR in July 2019. The presence or absence of TKR on the HTO limb was identified from the orthopedic surgery reports and knee radiographs contained in the electronic medical records for each patient at London Health Sciences Centre. We used cumulative incidence curves to evaluate the primary outcome of time to TKR. We used multivariable Cox proportional hazards analysis to assess potential preoperative predictors including radiographic disease severity, malalignment, correction size, pain, sex, age, body mass index (BMI) and year of surgery. RESULTS: Among 556 patients who underwent 643 HTO procedures, the cumulative incidence of TKR was 5% (95% confidence interval [CI] 3%–7%) at 5 years and 21% (95% CI 17%–26%) at 10 years. With the Cox proportional hazards multivariable model, the following preoperative factors were significantly associated with an increased rate of conversion: radiographic OA severity (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 1.96, 95% CI 1.12–3.45), pain (adjusted HR 0.85, 95% CI 0.75–0.96)], female sex (adjusted HR 1.67, 95% CI 1.08–2.58), age (adjusted HR 1.50 per 10 yr, 95% CI 1.17–1.93) and BMI (adjusted HR 1.31 per 5 kng/m2, 95% CI 1.12–1.53). INTERPRETATION: We found that 79% of knees did not undergo TKR within 10 years after undergoing medial opening wedge HTO. The strongest predictor of conversion to TKR is greater radiographic disease at the time of HTO

International society of sport psychology position stand: mental health through occupational health and safety in high performance sport

There is considerable attention devoted to athlete mental health in high-performance sport. The International Society of Sport Psychology seeks to extend this discourse by expanding the discussion through a lens of occupational health and safety (OHS). Drawing upon knowledge from OHS, the authors have considered existing mental health challenges as well as proactive and reactive strategies conducive of athlete safety. This Position Stand is structured into four sections. The authors introduce OHS and its relevance to high-performance sport in section one. Section two focuses on athlete mental health and the need for an OHS approach within sport organisations. Section three is focused particularly on athlete safety in relation to high-performance youth athletes. The fourth and final section is a broader ideological discussion of how OHS might vary in approach based on national sport systems and cultural orientation

Subsequent Surgery After Revision Anterior Cruciate Ligament Reconstruction: Rates and Risk Factors From a Multicenter Cohort

BACKGROUND: While revision anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction (ACLR) can be performed to restore knee stability and improve patient activity levels, outcomes after this surgery are reported to be inferior to those after primary ACLR. Further reoperations after revision ACLR can have an even more profound effect on patient satisfaction and outcomes. However, there is a current lack of information regarding the rate and risk factors for subsequent surgery after revision ACLR. PURPOSE: To report the rate of reoperations, procedures performed, and risk factors for a reoperation 2 years after revision ACLR. STUDY DESIGN: Case-control study; Level of evidence, 3. METHODS: A total of 1205 patients who underwent revision ACLR were enrolled in the Multicenter ACL Revision Study (MARS) between 2006 and 2011, composing the prospective cohort. Two-year questionnaire follow-up was obtained for 989 patients (82%), while telephone follow-up was obtained for 1112 patients (92%). If a patient reported having undergone subsequent surgery, operative reports detailing the subsequent procedure(s) were obtained and categorized. Multivariate regression analysis was performed to determine independent risk factors for a reoperation. RESULTS: Of the 1112 patients included in the analysis, 122 patients (11%) underwent a total of 172 subsequent procedures on the ipsilateral knee at 2-year follow-up. Of the reoperations, 27% were meniscal procedures (69% meniscectomy, 26% repair), 19% were subsequent revision ACLR, 17% were cartilage procedures (61% chondroplasty, 17% microfracture, 13% mosaicplasty), 11% were hardware removal, and 9% were procedures for arthrofibrosis. Multivariate analysis revealed that patients aged <20 years had twice the odds of patients aged 20 to 29 years to undergo a reoperation. The use of an allograft at the time of revision ACLR (odds ratio [OR], 1.79; P = .007) was a significant predictor for reoperations at 2 years, while staged revision (bone grafting of tunnels before revision ACLR) (OR, 1.93; P = .052) did not reach significance. Patients with grade 4 cartilage damage seen during revision ACLR were 78% less likely to undergo subsequent operations within 2 years. Sex, body mass index, smoking history, Marx activity score, technique for femoral tunnel placement, and meniscal tearing or meniscal treatment at the time of revision ACLR showed no significant effect on the reoperation rate. CONCLUSION: There was a significant reoperation rate after revision ACLR at 2 years (11%), with meniscal procedures most commonly involved. Independent risk factors for subsequent surgery on the ipsilateral knee included age <20 years and the use of allograft tissue at the time of revision ACLR

Precise Measurement of the Neutrino Mixing Parameter theta(23) from Muon Neutrino Disappearance in an Off-Axis Beam

New data from the T2K neutrino oscillation experiment produce the most precise measurement of the neutrino mixing parameter theta_{23}. Using an off-axis neutrino beam with a peak energy of 0.6 GeV and a data set corresponding to 6.57 x 10^{20} protons on target, T2K has fit the energy-dependent nu_mu oscillation probability to determine oscillation parameters. Marginalizing over the values of other oscillation parameters yields sin^2 (theta_{23}) = 0.514 +0.055/-0.056 (0.511 +- 0.055), assuming normal (inverted) mass hierarchy. The best-fit mass-squared splitting for normal hierarchy is Delta m^2_{32} = (2.51 +- 0.10) x 10^{-3} eV^2/c^4 (inverted hierarchy: Delta m^2_{13} = (2.48 +- 0.10) x 10^{-3} eV^2/c^4). Adding a model of multinucleon interactions that affect neutrino energy reconstruction is found to produce only small biases in neutrino oscillation parameter extraction at current levels of statistical uncertainty

Measurement of the intrinsic electron neutrino component in the T2K neutrino beam with the ND280 detector

The T2K experiment has reported the first observation of the appearance of electron neutrinos in a muon neutrino beam. The main and irreducible background to the appearance signal comes from the presence in the neutrino beam of a small intrinsic component of electron neutrinos originating from muon and kaon decays. In T2K, this component is expected to represent 1.2% of the total neutrino flux. A measurement of this component using the near detector (ND280), located 280 m from the target, is presented. The charged current interactions of electron neutrinos are selected by combining the particle identification capabilities of both the time projection chambers and electromagnetic calorimeters of ND280. The measured ratio between the observed electron neutrino beam component and the prediction is 1.01 +/- 0.10 providing a direct confirmation of the neutrino fluxes and neutrino cross section modeling used for T2K neutrino oscillation analyses. Electron neutrinos coming from muons and kaons decay are also separately measured, resulting in a ratio with respect to the prediction of 0.68 +/- 0.30 and 1.10 +/- 0.14, respectively

Measurement of the neutrino-oxygen neutral-current interaction cross section by observing nuclear deexcitation gamma rays

We report the first measurement of the neutrino-oxygen neutral-current quasielastic (NCQE) cross section gamma It is obtained by observing nuclear deexcitation. rays which follow neutrino-oxygen interactions at the Super-Kamiokande water Cherenkov detector. We use T2K data corresponding to 3.01 x 10(20) protons on target. By selecting only events during the T2K beam window and with well-reconstructed vertices in the fiducial volume, the large background rate from natural radioactivity is dramatically reduced. We observe 43 events in the 4-30 MeV reconstructed energy window, compared with an expectation of 51.0, which includes an estimated 16.2 background events. The background is primarily nonquasielastic neutral-current interactions and has only 1.2 events from natural radioactivity. The flux-averaged NCQE cross section we measure is 1.55 x 10(-38) cm(2) with a 68% confidence interval of (1.22, 2.20) x 10(-38) cm(2) at a median neutrino energy of 630 MeV, compared with the theoretical prediction of 2.01 x 10(-38) cm(2)