Bayesian analysis for inference of an emerging epidemic: citrus canker in urban landscapes.

Outbreaks of infectious diseases require a rapid response from policy makers. The choice of an adequate level of response relies upon available knowledge of the spatial and temporal parameters governing pathogen spread, affecting, amongst others, the predicted severity of the epidemic. Yet, when a new pathogen is introduced into an alien environment, such information is often lacking or of no use, and epidemiological parameters must be estimated from the first observations of the epidemic. This poses a challenge to epidemiologists: how quickly can the parameters of an emerging disease be estimated? How soon can the future progress of the epidemic be reliably predicted? We investigate these issues using a unique, spatially and temporally resolved dataset for the invasion of a plant disease, Asiatic citrus canker in urban Miami. We use epidemiological models, Bayesian Markov-chain Monte Carlo, and advanced spatial statistical methods to analyse rates and extent of spread of the disease. A rich and complex epidemic behaviour is revealed. The spatial scale of spread is approximately constant over time and can be estimated rapidly with great precision (although the evidence for long-range transmission is inconclusive). In contrast, the rate of infection is characterised by strong monthly fluctuations that we associate with extreme weather events. Uninformed predictions from the early stages of the epidemic, assuming complete ignorance of the future environmental drivers, fail because of the unpredictable variability of the infection rate. Conversely, predictions improve dramatically if we assume prior knowledge of either the main environmental trend, or the main environmental events. A contrast emerges between the high detail attained by modelling in the spatiotemporal description of the epidemic and the bottleneck imposed on epidemic prediction by the limits of meteorological predictability. We argue that identifying such bottlenecks will be a fundamental step in future modelling of weather-driven epidemics.FMN gratefully acknowledges financial support from BBSRC, USDA-ARS, USDA-Aphis PPQ, Citrus Research and Development Foundation. CAG gratefully acknowledges the support of a BBSRC Professorial Fellowship, with additional support from USDA and Defra. ARC was supported by BBSRC, USDA, the National University of Singapore, and NMRC. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript

Metabolomic studies of lipid storage disorders, with special reference to Niemann-Pick type C disease: a critical review with future perspectives

Lysosomal storage disorders (LSDs) are predominantly very rare recessive autosomal neurodegenerative diseases.Sphingolipidoses, a sub-group of LSDs, result from defects in lysosomal enzymes involved in sphingolipid catabolism, and feature disrupted storage systems which trigger complex pathogenic cascades with other organelles collaterally affected. This process leads to cell dysfunction and death, particularly in the central nervous system. One valuable approach to gaining insights into the global impact of lysosomal dysfunction is through metabolomics, which represents a discovery tool for investigating disease-induced modifications in the patterns of large numbers of simultaneously-analysed metabolites, which also features the identification of biomarkers Here, the scope and applications of metabolomics strategies to the investigation of sphingolipidoses is explored in order to facilitate our understanding of the biomolecular basis of these conditions. This review therefore surveys the benefits of applying ’state-of-the-art’ metabolomics strategies, both univariate and multivariate, to sphingolipidoses, particularly Niemann-Pick type C disease. Relevant limitations of these techniques are also discussed, along with the latest advances and developments. We conclude that metabolomics strategies are highly valuable, distinctive bioanalytical techniques for probing LSDs, most especially for the detection and validation of potential biomarkers. They also show much promise for monitoring disease progression and the evaluation of therapeutic strategies and targets

Even Between-Lap Pacing Despite High Within-Lap Variation During Mountain Biking

Purpose: Given the paucity of research on pacing strategies during competitive events, this study examined changes in dynamic high-resolution performance parameters to analyze pacing profiles during a multiple-lap mountain-bike race over variable terrain. Methods: A global-positioning-system (GPS) unit (Garmin, Edge 305, USA) recorded velocity (m/s), distance (m), elevation (m), and heart rate at 1 Hz from 6 mountain-bike riders (mean ± SD age = 27.2 ± 5.0 y, stature = 176.8 ± 8.1 cm, mass = 76.3 ± 11.7 kg, VO2max = 55.1 ± 6.0 mL · kg–1 . min–1) competing in a multilap race. Lap-by-lap (interlap) pacing was analyzed using a 1-way ANOVA for mean time and mean velocity. Velocity data were averaged every 100 m and plotted against race distance and elevation to observe the presence of intralap variation. Results: There was no significant difference in lap times (P = .99) or lap velocity (P = .65) across the 5 laps. Within each lap, a high degree of oscillation in velocity was observed, which broadly reflected changes in terrain, but high-resolution data demonstrated additional nonmonotonic variation not related to terrain. Conclusion: Participants adopted an even pace strategy across the 5 laps despite rapid adjustments in velocity during each lap. While topographical and technical variations of the course accounted for some of the variability in velocity, the additional rapid adjustments in velocity may be associated with dynamic regulation of self-paced exercise

Assessment of B Cell Repertoire in Humans

The B cell receptor (BCR) repertoire is highly diverse. Repertoire diversity is achieved centrally by somatic recombination of immunoglobulin (Ig) genes and peripherally by somatic hypermutation and Ig heavy chain class-switching. Throughout these processes, there is selection for functional gene rearrangements, selection against gene combinations resulting in self-reactive BCRs, and selection for BCRs with high affinity for exogenous antigens after challenge. Hence, investigation of BCR repertoires from different groups of B cells can provide information on stages of B cell development and shed light on the etiology of B cell pathologies. In most instances, the third complementarity determining region of the Ig heavy chain (CDR-H3) contributes the majority of amino acids to the antibody/antigen binding interface. Although CDR-H3 spectratype analysis provides information on the overall diversity of BCR repertoires, this fairly simple technique analyzes the relative quantities of CDR-H3 regions of each size, within a range of approximately 10–80 bp, without sequence detail and thus is limited in scope. High-throughput sequencing (HTS) techniques on the Roche 454 GS FLX Titanium system, however, can generate a wide coverage of Ig sequences to provide more qualitative data such as V, D, and J usage as well as detailed CDR3 sequence information. Here we present protocols in detail for CDR-H3 spectratype analysis and HTS of human BCR repertoires

Acoustic signals in the sand fly Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) intermedia (Diptera: Psychodidae)

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Acoustic signals are part of the courtship of many insects and they often act as species-specific signals that are important in the reproductive isolation of closely related species. Here we report the courtship songs of the sand fly <it>Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) intermedia</it>, one of the main vectors of cutaneous leishmaniasis in Brazil.</p> <p>Findings</p> <p>Recordings were performed using insects from three localities from Eastern Brazil: Posse and Jacarepaguá in Rio de Janeiro State and Corte de Pedra in Bahia State. The three areas have remnants of the Brazilian Atlantic forest, they are endemic for cutaneous leishmaniasis and <it>L. intermedia </it>is the predominant sand fly species. We observed that during courtship <it>L. intermedia </it>males from all populations produced pulse songs consisting of short trains. No significant differences in song parameters were observed between the males of the three localities.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p><it>L. intermedia </it>males produce acoustic signals as reported for some other sand flies such as the sibling species of the <it>Lutzomyia longipalpis </it>complex. The lack of differences between the males from the three localities is consistent with previous molecular studies of the <it>period </it>gene carried out in the same populations, reinforcing the idea that <it>L. intermedia </it>is not a species complex in the studied areas and that the three populations are likely to have similar vectorial capacities.</p

Comparing stochastic differential equations and agent-based modelling and simulation for early-stage cancer

There is great potential to be explored regarding the use of agent-based modelling and simulation as an alternative paradigm to investigate early-stage cancer interactions with the immune system. It does not suffer from some limitations of ordinary differential equation models, such as the lack of stochasticity, representation of individual behaviours rather than aggregates and individual memory. In this paper we investigate the potential contribution of agent-based modelling and simulation when contrasted with stochastic versions of ODE models using early-stage cancer examples. We seek answers to the following questions: (1) Does this new stochastic formulation produce similar results to the agent-based version? (2) Can these methods be used interchangeably? (3) Do agent-based models outcomes reveal any benefit when compared to the Gillespie results? To answer these research questions we investigate three well-established mathematical models describing interactions between tumour cells and immune elements. These case studies were re-conceptualised under an agent-based perspective and also converted to the Gillespie algorithm formulation. Our interest in this work, therefore, is to establish a methodological discussion regarding the usability of different simulation approaches, rather than provide further biological insights into the investigated case studies. Our results show that it is possible to obtain equivalent models that implement the same mechanisms; however, the incapacity of the Gillespie algorithm to retain individual memory of past events affects the similarity of some results. Furthermore, the emergent behaviour of ABMS produces extra patters of behaviour in the system, which was not obtained by the Gillespie algorithm

Chronic pain in primary care. German figures from 1991 and 2006

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Until now only limited research has been done on the prevalence of chronic pain in primary care. The aim of this investigation was to study the health care utilisation of patients suffering from pain. How many patients visit an outpatient clinic because of the symptom of pain? These data were compared with data from a similar study in 1991, to investigate whether improvements had been achieved.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A total of 1201 consecutive patients visiting outpatient clinics were surveyed in six practices in the western part of Germany on randomly selected days by means of questionnaires. Topics were the point prevalence of pain and the period prevalence of chronic pain, its characteristics and its impact on daily life, as well as data on previous therapies for pain. A retrospective comparison was made with the data from a similar study with same design surveying 900 patients that took place in five practices during 1991.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In 2006, pain was the main reason for consulting a doctor in 42.5% of all patients (1991: 50.3%). Of all respondents, 62% suffered from pain on the particular day of the consultation, and 40% reported that they had been suffering from pain for more than six months (1991: 36.4%). As many as 88.3% of patients with chronic pain reported a negative impact on their daily life due to this pain (1991: 68%), and 88.1% reported impairment of their working life because of chronic pain (1991: 59.1%).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Pain, and chronic pain in particular, is a central problem in primary care. Over the last 15 years, the number of patients suffering from chronic pain has not decreased. In nearly half of all cases, pain is still the reason for health care utilisation in outpatient clinics. Pain represents a major primary health care problem with enormous impact on public health. Improvements can only be achieved by improving the quality of health care at the primary care level.</p

Social representations and the politics of participation

Recent work has called for the integration of different perspectives into the field of political psychology (Haste, 2012). This chapter suggests that one possible direction that such efforts can take is studying the role that social representations theory (SRT) can play in understanding political participation and social change. Social representations are systems of common-sense knowledge and social practice; they provide the lens through which to view and create social and political realities, mediate people's relations with these sociopolitical worlds and defend cultural and political identities. Social representations are therefore key for conceptualising participation as the activity that locates individuals and social groups in their sociopolitical world. Political participation is generally seen as conditional to membership of sociopolitical groups and therefore is often linked to citizenship. To be a citizen of a society or a member of any social group one has to participate as such. Often political participation is defined as the ability to communicate one's views to the political elite or to the political establishment (Uhlaner, 2001), or simply explicit involvement in politics and electoral processes (Milbrath, 1965). However, following scholars on ideology (Eagleton, 1991; Thompson, 1990) and social knowledge (Jovchelovitch, 2007), we extend our understanding of political participation to all social relations and also develop a more agentic model where individuals and groups construct, develop and resist their own views, ideas and beliefs. We thus adopt a broader approach to participation in comparison to other political-psychological approaches, such as personality approaches (e.g. Mondak and Halperin, 2008) and cognitive approaches or, more recently, neuropsychological approaches (Hatemi and McDermott, 2012). We move away from a focus on the individual's political behaviour and its antecedents and outline an approach that focuses on the interaction between psychological and political phenomena (Deutsch and Kinnvall, 2002) through examining the politics of social knowledge