Big Data Opportunities for Global Infectious Disease Surveillance

Simon Hay and colleagues discuss the potential and challenges of producing continually updated infectious disease risk maps using diverse and large volume data sources such as social media

Global mapping of infectious disease

The primary aim of this review was to evaluate the state of knowledge of the geographical distribution of all infectious diseases of clinical significance to humans. A systematic review was conducted to enumerate cartographic progress, with respect to the data available for mapping and the methods currently applied. The results helped define the minimum information requirements for mapping infectious disease occurrence, and a quantitative framework for assessing the mapping opportunities for all infectious diseases. This revealed that of 355 infectious diseases identified, 174 (49%) have a strong rationale for mapping and of these only 7 (4%) had been comprehensively mapped. A variety of ambitions, such as the quantification of the global burden of infectious disease, international biosurveillance, assessing the likelihood of infectious disease outbreaks and exploring the propensity for infectious disease evolution and emergence, are limited by these omissions. An overview of the factors hindering progress in disease cartography is provided. It is argued that rapid improvement in the landscape of infectious diseases mapping can be made by embracing non-conventional data sources, automation of geo-positioning and mapping procedures enabled by machine learning and information technology, respectively, in addition to harnessing labour of the volunteer ‘cognitive surplus’ through crowdsourcing

The Value Proposition of the Global Health Security Index

Infectious disease outbreaks pose major threats to human health and security. Countries with robust capacities for preventing, detecting and responding to outbreaks can avert many of the social, political, economic and health system costs of such crises. The Global Health Security Index (GHS Index)—the first comprehensive assessment and benchmarking of health security and related capabilities across 195 countries—recently found that no country is sufficiently prepared for epidemics or pandemics. The GHS Index can help health security stakeholders identify areas of weakness, as well as opportunities to collaborate across sectors, collectively strengthen health systems and achieve shared public health goals. Some scholars have recently offered constructive critiques of the GHS Index’s approach to scoring and ranking countries; its weighting of select indicators; its emphasis on transparency; its focus on biosecurity and biosafety capacities; and divergence between select country scores and corresponding COVID-19-associated caseloads, morbidity, and mortality. Here, we (1) describe the practical value of the GHS Index; (2) present potential use cases to help policymakers and practitioners maximise the utility of the tool; (3) discuss the importance of scoring and ranking; (4) describe the robust methodology underpinning country scores and ranks; (5) highlight the GHS Index’s emphasis on transparency and (6) articulate caveats for users wishing to use GHS Index data in health security research, policymaking and practice

The global distribution and burden of dengue

Dengue is a systemic viral infection transmitted between humans by Aedes mosquitoes1. For some patients dengue is a life-threatening illness2. There are currently no licensed vaccines or specific therapeutics, and substantial vector control efforts have not stopped its rapid emergence and global spread3. The contemporary worldwide distribution of the risk of dengue virus infection4 and its public health burden are poorly known2,5. Here we undertake an exhaustive assembly of known records of dengue occurrence worldwide, and use a formal modelling framework to map the global distribution of dengue risk. We then pair the resulting risk map with detailed longitudinal information from dengue cohort studies and population surfaces to infer the public health burden of dengue in 2010. We predict dengue to be ubiquitous throughout the tropics, with local spatial variations in risk influenced strongly by rainfall, temperature and the degree of urbanisation. Using cartographic approaches, we estimate there to be 390 million (95 percent credible interval 284-528) dengue infections per year, of which 96 million (67-136) manifest apparently (any level of clinical or sub-clinical severity). This infection total is more than three times the dengue burden estimate of the World Health Organization2. Stratification of our estimates by country allows comparison with national dengue reporting, after taking into account the probability of an apparent infection being formally reported. The most notable differences are discussed. These new risk maps and infection estimates provide novel insights into the global, regional and national public health burden imposed by dengue. We anticipate that they will provide a starting point for a wider discussion about the global impact of this disease and will help guide improvements in disease control strategies using vaccine, drug and vector control methods and in their economic evaluation. [285

Mission impossible? The paradoxes of stretch goal setting

© 2016, © The Author(s) 2016. Stretch goal setting is a process involving multiple and nested paradoxes. The paradoxical side of stretch is attractive because it holds great promise yet dangerous because it triggers processes that are hard to control. Paradoxes are not readily managed by assuming a linear relation between the here and now and the intended future perfect. Before adopting stretch goal setting, managers should thus be prepared for the tensions and contradictions created by nested or interwoven paradoxes. Achieving stretch goals can be as difficult for the managers seeking to direct the process as for designated delegates. While the increasing popularity of stretch goal setting is understandable, its unexpected consequences must be taken into account. The inadequate use of stretch goals can jeopardize the social sustainability of organizations as well as their societal support systems

Antibody levels following vaccination against SARS-CoV-2: associations with post-vaccination infection and risk factors

SARS-CoV-2 antibody levels can be used to assess humoral immune responses following SARS-CoV-2 infection or vaccination, and may predict risk of future infection. From cross-sectional antibody testing of 9,361 individuals from TwinsUK and ALSPAC UK population-based longitudinal studies (jointly in April-May 2021, and TwinsUK only in November 2021-January 2022), we tested associations between antibody levels following vaccination and: (1) SARS-CoV-2 infection following vaccination(s); (2) health, socio-demographic, SARS-CoV-2 infection and SARS-CoV-2 vaccination variables. Within TwinsUK, single-vaccinated individuals with the lowest 20% of anti-Spike antibody levels at initial testing had 3-fold greater odds of SARS-CoV-2 infection over the next six to nine months, compared to the top 20%. In TwinsUK and ALSPAC, individuals identified as at increased risk of COVID-19 complication through the UK "Shielded Patient List" had consistently greater odds (2 to 4-fold) of having antibody levels in the lowest 10%. Third vaccination increased absolute antibody levels for almost all individuals, and reduced relative disparities compared with earlier vaccinations. These findings quantify the association between antibody level and risk of subsequent infection, and support a policy of triple vaccination for the generation of protective antibodies

The global distribution of Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever

Background: Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever (CCHF) is a tick-borne infection caused by a virus (CCHFV) from the Bunyaviridae family. Domestic and wild vertebrates are asymptomatic reservoirs for the virus, putting animal handlers, slaughter-house workers and agricultural labourers at highest risk in endemic areas, with secondary transmission possible through contact with infected blood and other bodily fluids. Human infection is characterized by severe symptoms that often result in death. While it is known that CCHFV transmission is limited to Africa, Asia and Europe, definitive global extents and risk patterns within these limits have not been well described. Methods: We used an exhaustive database of human CCHF occurrence records and a niche modeling framework to map the global distribution of risk for human CCHF occurrence. Results: A greater proportion of shrub or grass land cover was the most important contributor to our model, which predicts highest levels of risk around the Black Sea, Turkey, and some parts of central Asia. Sub-Saharan Africa shows more focalized areas of risk throughout the Sahel and the Cape region. Conclusions: These new risk maps provide a valuable starting point for understanding the zoonotic niche of CCHF, its extent and the risk it poses to humans

A rare mutation in SMAD9 associated with high bone mass identifies the SMAD-dependent BMP signalling pathway as a potential anabolic target for osteoporosis

Novel anabolic drug targets are needed to treat osteoporosis. Having established a large national cohort with unexplained high bone mass (HBM), we aimed to identify a novel monogenic cause of HBM and provide insight into a regulatory pathway potentially amenable to therapeutic intervention. We investigated a pedigree with unexplained HBM in whom previous sequencing had excluded known causes of monogenic HBM. Whole exome sequencing identified a rare (minor allele frequency 0.0023), highly evolutionarily conserved missense mutation in SMAD9 (c.65T>C, p.Leu22Pro) segregating with HBM in this autosomal dominant family. The same mutation was identified in another two unrelated individuals both with HBM. In silico protein modeling predicts the mutation severely disrupts the MH1 DNA-binding domain of SMAD9. Affected individuals have bone mineral density (BMD) Z-scores +3 to +5, mandible enlargement, a broad frame, torus palatinus/mandibularis, pes planus, increased shoe size, and a tendency to sink when swimming. Peripheral quantitative computed tomography (pQCT) measurement demonstrates increased trabecular volumetric BMD and increased cortical thickness conferring greater predicted bone strength; bone turnover markers are low/normal. Notably, fractures and nerve compression are not found. Both genome-wide and gene-based association testing involving estimated BMD measured at the heel in 362,924 white British subjects from the UK Biobank Study showed strong associations with SMAD9 (P-GWAS = 6 x 10(-16); P-GENE = 8 x 10(-17)). Furthermore, we found Smad9 to be highly expressed in both murine cortical bone-derived osteocytes and skeletal elements of zebrafish larvae. Our findings support SMAD9 as a novel HBM gene and a potential novel osteoanabolic target for osteoporosis therapeutics. SMAD9 is thought to inhibit bone morphogenetic protein (BMP)-dependent target gene transcription to reduce osteoblast activity. Thus, we hypothesize SMAD9 c.65T>C is a loss-of-function mutation reducing BMP inhibition. Lowering SMAD9 as a potential novel anabolic mechanism for osteoporosis therapeutics warrants further investigation. (c) 2019 The Authors. Journal of Bone and Mineral Research published by American Society for Bone and Mineral Research