Glacio-isostatic deformation around the Vatnajokull ice cap, Iceland, induced by recent climate warming: GPS observations and finite element modeling

Glaciers in Iceland began retreating around 1890, and since then the Vatnajökull ice cap has lost over 400 km3 of ice. The associated unloading of the crust induces a glacio‐isostatic response. From 1996 to 2004 a GPS network was measured around the southern edge of Vatnajökull. These measurements, together with more extended time series at several other GPS sites, indicate vertical velocities around the ice cap ranging from 9 to 25 mm/yr, and horizontal velocities in the range 3 to 4 mm/yr. The vertical velocities have been modeled using the finite element method (FEM) in order to constrain the viscosity structure beneath Vatnajökull. We use an axisymmetric Earth model with an elastic plate over a uniform viscoelastic half‐space. The observations are consistent with predictions based on an Earth model made up of an elastic plate with a thickness of 10–20 km and an underlying viscosity in the range 4–10 × 1018 Pa s. Knowledge of the Earth structure allows us to predict uplift around Vatnajökull in the next decades. According to our estimates of the rheological parameters, and assuming that ice thinning will continue at a similar rate during this century (about 4 km3/year), a minimum uplift of 2.5 meters between 2000 to 2100 is expected near the current ice cap edge. If the thinning rates were to double in response to global warming (about 8 km3/year), then the minimum uplift between 2000 to 2100 near the current ice cap edge is expected to be 3.7 meters

The effect of fluid compressibility and elastic rock properties on deformation of geothermal reservoirs

A geothermal reservoir deforms when the extraction of pore fluid exceeds reservoir recharge, causing a decrease in pore pressure. The magnitude of this deformation is related to the amount of pore fluid that is extracted. Assuming compressible material properties in a homogeneous reservoir, we derive an expression for the ratio of reservoir volume change per extracted fluid mass. We show that this ratio depends on a number of parameters, notably the compressibilities of reservoir rock and pore fluid. We apply the obtained relationship to three different geothermal areas (Hellisheidi, Reykjanes and The Geysers) to illustrate under which circumstances the relation between reservoir deformation and the amount of extracted fluid is able to help us learn more about reservoir conditions. We find that the fluid compressibility, depending on whether the system is single-phase or two-phase, may explain large differences in estimates of reservoir volume changes per mass of extracted flui

Post-eruptive volcano inflation following major magma drainage: Interplay between models of viscoelastic response influence and models of magma inflow at Bárðarbunga caldera, Iceland, 2015-2018

&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;Unrest at B&amp;amp;#225;r&amp;amp;#240;arbunga after a caldera collapse in 2014-2015 includes elevated seismicity beginning about six months after the eruption ended, including nine Mw&amp;gt;4.5 earthquakes. The earthquakes occurred mostly on the northern and southern parts of a caldera ring fault. Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS, in particular, Global Positioning System; GPS) and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) geodesy are applied to evaluate the spatial and temporal pattern of ground deformation around B&amp;amp;#225;r&amp;amp;#240;arbunga caldera outside the icecap, in 2015-2018, when deformation rates were relatively steady. The aim is to study the role of viscoelastic relaxation following major magma drainage versus renewed magma inflow as an explanation for the ongoing unrest.&amp;lt;/p&amp;gt;&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;The largest horizontal velocity is measured at GPS station KISA (3 km from caldera rim), 141 mm/yr in direction N47&amp;lt;sup&amp;gt;o&amp;lt;/sup&amp;gt;E relative to the Eurasian plate in 2015-2018. GPS and InSAR observations show that the velocities decay rapidly outward from the caldera. We correct our observations for Glacial Isostatic Adjustment and plate spreading to extract the deformation related to volcanic activity. After this correction, some GPS sites show subsidence.&amp;lt;/p&amp;gt;&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;We use a reference Earth model to initially evaluate the contribution of viscoelastic processes to the observed deformation field. We model the deformation within a half-space composed of a 7-km thick elastic layer on top of a viscoelastic layer with a viscosity of 5 x 10&amp;lt;sup&amp;gt;18&amp;lt;/sup&amp;gt; Pa s, considering two co-eruptive contributors to the viscoelastic relaxation: &amp;amp;#8220;non-piston&amp;amp;#8221; magma withdrawal at 10 km depth (modelled as pressure drop in a spherical source) and caldera collapse (modelled as surface unloading). The other model we test is the magma inflow in an elastic half-space. Both the viscoelastic relaxation and magma inflow create horizontal outward movements around the caldera, and uplift at the surface projection of the source center in 2015-2018. Viscoelastic response due to magma withdrawal results in subsidence in the area outside the icecap. Magma inflow creates rapid surface velocity decay as observed.&amp;lt;/p&amp;gt;&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;We explore further two parameters in the viscoelastic reference model: the viscosity and the &amp;quot;non-piston&amp;quot; magma withdrawal volume. Our comparison between the corrected InSAR velocities and viscoelastic models suggests a viscosity of 2.6&amp;amp;#215;10&amp;lt;sup&amp;gt;18&amp;lt;/sup&amp;gt; Pa s and 0.36 km&amp;lt;sup&amp;gt;3&amp;lt;/sup&amp;gt; of &amp;amp;#8220;non-piston&amp;amp;#8221; magma withdrawal volume, given by the optimal reduced Chi-squared statistic. When the deformation is explained using only magma inflow into a single spherical source (and no viscoelastic response), the optimal model suggests an inflow rate at 1&amp;amp;#215;10&amp;lt;sup&amp;gt;7&amp;lt;/sup&amp;gt; m&amp;lt;sup&amp;gt;3&amp;lt;/sup&amp;gt;/yr at 700 m depth. A magma inflow model with more model parameters is also a possible explanation, including sill inflation at 10 km together with slip on caldera ring faults. Our reference Earth model and the two end-member models suggest that there is a trade-off between the viscoelastic relaxation and the magma inflow, since they produce similar deformation signals outside the icecap. However, to reproduce details of the observed deformation, both processes are required. A viscoelastic-only model cannot fully explain the fast velocity decay away from the caldera, whereas a magma inflow-only model cannot explain the subsidence observed at several locations.&amp;lt;/p&amp;gt; </jats:p

Anthropogenic and natural ground deformation in the Hengill geothermal area, Iceland

We investigate crustal deformation due to the extraction of water and steam from a high-enthalpy geothermal reservoir; a common occurrence, yet not well understood. The cause of this deformation can be a change in pressure or in temperature in the reservoir, both of which can be caused by extraction or injection of geothermal fluids. Our study area, the Hengill mountains in SW Iceland, is an active volcanic center and a plate triple junction that hosts two power plants producing geothermal energy. This combination of natural and anthropogenic processes causes a complex displacement field at the surface. We analyze geodetic data—Global Navigation Satellite System and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar—to obtain the surface velocity field, which we then simulate using an inverse modeling approach. We focus on the deformation around the geothermal power plants but need to model the regional tectonic and volcanic deformation as well, because the signals are overlapping. We find that plate motion and a deep contracting body can explain the broad scale signal in the area. Local deformation near the two power plants, Hellisheidi and Nesjavellir, can be explained by extraction of geothermal fluids. We estimate reservoirs extending from 0.6 to 3.0 km depth at Hellisheidi, and 1.0 to 3.0 km depth at Nesjavellir for observed pressure decrease rates of 0.25 MPa/yr and 0.1 MPa/yr, respectively. We find that the main cause for the subsidence in the geothermal area is the observed pressure drawdown

Injection-induced surface deformation and seismicity at the Hellisheidi geothermal field, Iceland

Induced seismicity is often associated with fluid injection but only rarely linked to surface deformation. At the Hellisheidi geothermal power plant in south-west Iceland we observe up to 2 cm of surface displacements during 2011–2012, indicating expansion of the crust. The displacements occurred at the same time as a strong increase in seismicity was detected and coincide with the initial phase of geothermal wastewater reinjection at Hellisheidi. Reinjection started on September 1, 2011 with a flow rate of around 500 kg/s. Micro-seismicity increased immediately in the area north of the injection sites, with the largest seismic events in the sequence being two M4 earthquakes on October 15, 2011. Semi-continuous GPS sites installed on October 15 and 17, and on November 2, 2011 reveal a transient signal which indicates that most of the deformation occurred in the first months after the start of the injection. The surface deformation is evident in ascending TerraSAR-X data covering June 2011 to May 2012 as well. We use an inverse modeling approach and simulate both the InSAR and GPS data to find the most plausible cause of the deformation signal, investigating how surface deformation, seismicity and fluid injection may be connected to each other. We argue that fluid injection caused an increase in pore pressure which resulted in increased seismicity and fault slip. Both pore pressure increase and fault slip contribute to the surface deformation

Impact of national holidays and weekends on incidence of acute type A aortic dissection repair

Publisher Copyright: © 2022, The Author(s).Previous studies have demonstrated that environmental and temporal factors may affect the incidence of acute type A aortic dissection (ATAAD). Here, we aimed to investigate the hypothesis that national holidays and weekends influence the incidence of surgery for ATAAD. For the period 1st of January 2005 until 31st of December 2019, we investigated a hypothesised effect of (country-specific) national holidays and weekends on the frequency of 2995 surgical repairs for ATAAD at 10 Nordic cities included in the Nordic Consortium for Acute Type A Aortic Dissection (NORCAAD) collaboration. Compared to other days, the number of ATAAD repairs were 29% (RR 0.71; 95% CI 0.54–0.94) lower on national holidays and 26% (RR 0.74; 95% CI 0.68–0.82) lower on weekends. As day of week patterns of symptom duration were assessed and the primary analyses were adjusted for period of year, our findings suggest that the reduced surgical incidence on national holidays and weekends does not seem to correspond to seasonal effects or surgery being delayed and performed on regular working days.Peer reviewe

Risky use of alcohol, drugs and cigarettes in a psychosis unit: a 1 1/2 year follow-up of stability and changes after initial screening

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Co-morbidity with substance use disorders negatively influences overall functioning in patients with psychosis. However, frequencies and courses of risky use of alcohol, drugs and cigarettes are rarely investigated in patients at psychosis units.</p> <p>The purpose of this study is to describe the use of alcohol, drugs and cigarettes in patients at a psychosis unit over a 1 1/2 year period after them having taken part in a screening investigation including a feed-back of the results to personnel. Relationships with sex and age are also described.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The patients' use of the substances was examined at baseline and at follow-up using three self-reporting instruments: Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT), Drug Use Disorders Identification Test (DUDIT) and Fagerstrom Test for Nicotine Dependence (FTND).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>One hundred and eighty-six patients out of 238 at baseline (78 percent) took part in the follow-up. Total AUDIT score decreased in women. Older men more often developed a risky alcohol use. Older women tended to reduce their risky drug habits. On a group level the habits mostly were stable, but 11 percent changed their alcohol habits and 15 percent changed their smoking habits from risky to no/low risky use, or vice versa. Nine percent changed their drug habits, predominantly from risky to no/low risky use.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>A more active approach towards alcohol, drug and smoking habits in psychosis units would probably be beneficial.</p

Treatment retention of infliximab and etanercept originators versus their corresponding biosimilars : Nordic collaborative observational study of 2334 biologics naive patients with spondyloarthritis

Objective Although clinical trials support equivalence of originator products and biosimilars for etanercept and infliximab, real-world studies among biologics-naive patients with spondyloarthritis (SpA) are lacking. The objectives were to compare treatment retention in biologics-naive patients with SpA starting either the originator product or a biosimilar of infliximab and etanercept, and to explore the baseline characteristics of these patients. Methods Patients with SpA (ankylosing spondylitis/non-radiographical axial SpA/undifferentiated SpA), starting infliximab or etanercept as their first-ever biological disease-modifying antirheumatic drug during January 2014-June 2017 were identified in five Nordic biologics-rheumatology registers. Baseline characteristics were retrieved from each registry; comorbidity data were identified through linkage to national health registers. Country-specific data were pooled, and data on infliximab and etanercept were analysed separately. Comparisons of treatment retention between originators and biosimilars were assessed through survival probability curves, retention rates (2 years for infliximab/1 year for etanercept) and Hazard Ratios (HR). Results We included 1319 patients starting infliximab (24% originator/76% biosimilar), and 1015 patients starting etanercept (49% originator/51% biosimilar). Baseline characteristics were largely similar for the patients treated with the originators compared with the corresponding biosimilars. Survival probability curves were highly similar for the originator and its biosimilar, as were retention rates: infliximab 2-year retention originator, 44% (95% CI 38% to 50%)/biosimilar, 46% (95% CI: 42% to 51%); and etanercept 1-year retention originator, 66% (95% CI 61% to 70%)/biosimilar, 73% (95% CI 68% to 78%). HRs were not statistically significant. Conclusion This observational study of biologics-naive patients with SpA from five Nordic countries showed similar baseline characteristics and very similar retention rates in patients treated with originators versus biosimilars, for both infliximab and etanercept, indicating comparable effectiveness in clinical practice.Peer reviewe

Experiences of the implementation of a tool for lifestyle intervention in primary health care: a qualitative study among managers and professional groups

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In recent years there has been increasing interest in transferring new knowledge into health care practices, a process often referred to as implementation. The various subcultures that exist among health care workers may be an obstacle in this process. The aim of this study was to explore how professional groups and managers experienced the implementation of a new tool for lifestyle intervention in primary health care (PHC). The computer-based tool was introduced with the intention of facilitating the delivery of preventive services.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Focus group interviews with staff and individual interviews with managers at six PHC units in the southeast of Sweden were performed 9 months after the introduction of the new working tool. Staff interviews were conducted in groups according to profession, and were analysed using manifest content analysis. Experiences and opinions from the different staff groups and from managers were analysed.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Implementation preconditions, opinions about the lifestyle test, and opinions about usage were the main areas identified. In each of the groups, managers and professionals, factors related to the existing subcultures seemed to influence their experiences of the implementation. Managers were visionary, GPs were reluctant, nurses were open, and nurse assistants were indifferent.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This study indicates that the existing subcultures in PHC influence how the implementation of an innovation is perceived by managers and the different professionals. In PHC, an organization with several subcultures and an established hierarchical structure, an implementation strategy aimed at all groups did not seem to result in a successful uptake of the new method.</p

Fourteen sequence variants that associate with multiple sclerosis discovered by meta-analysis informed by genetic correlations

A meta-analysis of publicly available summary statistics on multiple sclerosis combined with three Nordic multiple sclerosis cohorts (21,079 cases, 371,198 controls) revealed seven sequence variants associating with multiple sclerosis, not reported previously. Using polygenic risk scores based on public summary statistics of variants outside the major histocompatibility complex region we quantified genetic overlap between common autoimmune diseases in Icelanders and identified disease clusters characterized by autoantibody presence/absence. As multiple sclerosis-polygenic risk scores captures the risk of primary biliary cirrhosis and vice versa (P = 1.6 x 10(-7), 4.3 x 10(-9)) we used primary biliary cirrhosis as a proxy-phenotype for multiple sclerosis, the idea being that variants conferring risk of primary biliary cirrhosis have a prior probability of conferring risk of multiple sclerosis. We tested 255 variants forming the primary biliary cirrhosis-polygenic risk score and found seven multiple sclerosis-associating variants not correlated with any previously established multiple sclerosis variants. Most of the variants discovered are close to or within immune-related genes. One is a low-frequency missense variant in TYK2, another is a missense variant in MTHFR that reduces the function of the encoded enzyme affecting methionine metabolism, reported to be dysregulated in multiple sclerosis brain.publishedVersio