Modelling spectral and timing properties of accreting black holes: the hybrid hot flow paradigm

The general picture that emerged by the end of 1990s from a large set of optical and X-ray, spectral and timing data was that the X-rays are produced in the innermost hot part of the accretion flow, while the optical/infrared (OIR) emission is mainly produced by the irradiated outer thin accretion disc. Recent multiwavelength observations of Galactic black hole transients show that the situation is not so simple. Fast variability in the OIR band, OIR excesses above the thermal emission and a complicated interplay between the X-ray and the OIR light curves imply that the OIR emitting region is much more compact. One of the popular hypotheses is that the jet contributes to the OIR emission and even is responsible for the bulk of the X-rays. However, this scenario is largely ad hoc and is in contradiction with many previously established facts. Alternatively, the hot accretion flow, known to be consistent with the X-ray spectral and timing data, is also a viable candidate to produce the OIR radiation. The hot-flow scenario naturally explains the power-law like OIR spectra, fast OIR variability and its complex relation to the X-rays if the hot flow contains non-thermal electrons (even in energetically negligible quantities), which are required by the presence of the MeV tail in Cyg X-1. The presence of non-thermal electrons also lowers the equilibrium electron temperature in the hot flow model to <100 keV, making it more consistent with observations. Here we argue that any viable model should simultaneously explain a large set of spectral and timing data and show that the hybrid (thermal/non-thermal) hot flow model satisfies most of the constraints.Comment: 26 pages, 13 figures. To be published in the Space Science Reviews and as hard cover in the Space Sciences Series of ISSI - The Physics of Accretion on to Black Holes (Springer Publisher

Constraints on diffuse neutrino background from primordial black holes

We calculated the energy spectra and the fluxes of electron neutrino emitted in the process of evaporation of primordial black holes (PBHs) in the early universe. It was assumed that PBHs are formed by a blue power-law spectrum of primordial density fluctuations. We obtained the bounds on the spectral index of density fluctuations assuming validity of the standard picture of gravitational collapse and using the available data of several experiments with atmospheric and solar neutrinos. The comparison of our results with the previous constraints (which had been obtained using diffuse photon background data) shows that such bounds are quite sensitive to an assumed form of the initial PBH mass function.Comment: 18 pages,(with 7 figures

The Lake Baikal neutrino experiment

We rewiew the present status of the Baikal Neutrino Project and present the results of a search for high energy neutrinos with the detector intermediate stage NT-96.Comment: 3 pages, 2 figures, to appear in the Proceedings of Sixth International Workshop on Topics in Astroparticle and Underground Physics (TAUP99), September 6-10, 1999, Pais, Franc

HIV and women in the USA: what we know and where to go from here

New diagnoses of HIV infection have decreased among women in the USA overall, but marked racial and geographical disparities persist. The federal government has announced an initiative that aims to decrease the number of new infections in the nation by 90% within the next 10 years. With this in mind, we highlight important recent developments concerning HIV epidemiology, comorbidities, treatment, and prevention among women in the USA. We conclude that, to end the US HIV epidemic, substantially greater inclusion of US women in clinical research will be required, as will better prevention and treatment efforts, with universal access to health care and other supportive services that enable women to exercise agency in their own HIV prevention and care. Ending the epidemic will also require eliminating the race, class, and gender inequities, as well as the discrimination and structural violence, that have promoted and maintained the distribution of HIV in the USA, and that will, if unchecked, continue to fuel the epidemic in the future

Characteristics and outcomes of hospitalised adults with COVID-19 in a Global Health Research Network: A cohort study

Objective To examine age, gender, and temporal differences in baseline characteristics and clinical outcomes of adult patients hospitalised with COVID-19. Design A cohort study using deidentified electronic medical records from a Global Research Network. Setting/Participants 67 456 adult patients hospitalised with COVID-19 from the USA; 7306 from Europe, Latin America and Asia-Pacific between February 2020 and January 2021. Results In the US cohort, compared with patients 18-34 years old, patients ≥65 had a greater risk of intensive care unit (ICU) admission (adjusted HR (aHR) 1.73, 95% CI 1.58 to 1.90), acute respiratory distress syndrome(ARDS)/respiratory failure (aHR 1.86, 95% CI 1.76 to 1.96), invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV, aHR 1.93, 95% CI, 1.73 to 2.15), and all-cause mortality (aHR 5.6, 95% CI 4.36 to 7.18). Men appeared to be at a greater risk for ICU admission (aHR 1.34, 95% CI 1.29 to 1.39), ARDS/respiratory failure (aHR 1.24, 95% CI1.21 to 1.27), IMV (aHR 1.38, 95% CI 1.32 to 1.45), and all-cause mortality (aHR 1.16, 95% CI 1.08 to 1.24) compared with women. Moreover, we observed a greater risk of adverse outcomes during the early pandemic (ie, February-April 2020) compared with later periods. In the ex-US cohort, the age and gender trends were similar; for the temporal trend, the highest proportion of patients with all-cause mortality were also in February-April 2020; however, the highest percentages of patients with IMV and ARDS/respiratory failure were in August-October 2020 followed by February-April 2020. Conclusions This study provided valuable information on the temporal trends of characteristics and outcomes of hospitalised adult COVID-19 patients in both USA and ex-USA. It also described the population at a potentially greater risk for worse clinical outcomes by identifying the age and gender differences. Together, the information could inform the prevention and treatment strategies of COVID-19. Furthermore, it can be used to raise public awareness of COVID-19's impact on vulnerable populations

Feasibility studies for the measurement of time-like proton electromagnetic form factors from p¯ p→ μ+μ- at P ¯ ANDA at FAIR

This paper reports on Monte Carlo simulation results for future measurements of the moduli of time-like proton electromagnetic form factors, | GE| and | GM| , using the p¯ p→ μ+μ- reaction at P ¯ ANDA (FAIR). The electromagnetic form factors are fundamental quantities parameterizing the electric and magnetic structure of hadrons. This work estimates the statistical and total accuracy with which the form factors can be measured at P ¯ ANDA , using an analysis of simulated data within the PandaRoot software framework. The most crucial background channel is p¯ p→ π+π-, due to the very similar behavior of muons and pions in the detector. The suppression factors are evaluated for this and all other relevant background channels at different values of antiproton beam momentum. The signal/background separation is based on a multivariate analysis, using the Boosted Decision Trees method. An expected background subtraction is included in this study, based on realistic angular distributions of the background contribution. Systematic uncertainties are considered and the relative total uncertainties of the form factor measurements are presented

Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Understanding the health consequences associated with exposure to risk factors is necessary to inform public health policy and practice. To systematically quantify the contributions of risk factor exposures to specific health outcomes, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 aims to provide comprehensive estimates of exposure levels, relative health risks, and attributable burden of disease for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Methods: The GBD 2021 risk factor analysis used data from 54 561 total distinct sources to produce epidemiological estimates for 88 risk factors and their associated health outcomes for a total of 631 risk–outcome pairs. Pairs were included on the basis of data-driven determination of a risk–outcome association. Age-sex-location-year-specific estimates were generated at global, regional, and national levels. Our approach followed the comparative risk assessment framework predicated on a causal web of hierarchically organised, potentially combinative, modifiable risks. Relative risks (RRs) of a given outcome occurring as a function of risk factor exposure were estimated separately for each risk–outcome pair, and summary exposure values (SEVs), representing risk-weighted exposure prevalence, and theoretical minimum risk exposure levels (TMRELs) were estimated for each risk factor. These estimates were used to calculate the population attributable fraction (PAF; ie, the proportional change in health risk that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to the TMREL). The product of PAFs and disease burden associated with a given outcome, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), yielded measures of attributable burden (ie, the proportion of total disease burden attributable to a particular risk factor or combination of risk factors). Adjustments for mediation were applied to account for relationships involving risk factors that act indirectly on outcomes via intermediate risks. Attributable burden estimates were stratified by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile and presented as counts, age-standardised rates, and rankings. To complement estimates of RR and attributable burden, newly developed burden of proof risk function (BPRF) methods were applied to yield supplementary, conservative interpretations of risk–outcome associations based on the consistency of underlying evidence, accounting for unexplained heterogeneity between input data from different studies. Estimates reported represent the mean value across 500 draws from the estimate's distribution, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) calculated as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile values across the draws. Findings: Among the specific risk factors analysed for this study, particulate matter air pollution was the leading contributor to the global disease burden in 2021, contributing 8·0% (95% UI 6·7–9·4) of total DALYs, followed by high systolic blood pressure (SBP; 7·8% [6·4–9·2]), smoking (5·7% [4·7–6·8]), low birthweight and short gestation (5·6% [4·8–6·3]), and high fasting plasma glucose (FPG; 5·4% [4·8–6·0]). For younger demographics (ie, those aged 0–4 years and 5–14 years), risks such as low birthweight and short gestation and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing (WaSH) were among the leading risk factors, while for older age groups, metabolic risks such as high SBP, high body-mass index (BMI), high FPG, and high LDL cholesterol had a greater impact. From 2000 to 2021, there was an observable shift in global health challenges, marked by a decline in the number of all-age DALYs broadly attributable to behavioural risks (decrease of 20·7% [13·9–27·7]) and environmental and occupational risks (decrease of 22·0% [15·5–28·8]), coupled with a 49·4% (42·3–56·9) increase in DALYs attributable to metabolic risks, all reflecting ageing populations and changing lifestyles on a global scale. Age-standardised global DALY rates attributable to high BMI and high FPG rose considerably (15·7% [9·9–21·7] for high BMI and 7·9% [3·3–12·9] for high FPG) over this period, with exposure to these risks increasing annually at rates of 1·8% (1·6–1·9) for high BMI and 1·3% (1·1–1·5) for high FPG. By contrast, the global risk-attributable burden and exposure to many other risk factors declined, notably for risks such as child growth failure and unsafe water source, with age-standardised attributable DALYs decreasing by 71·5% (64·4–78·8) for child growth failure and 66·3% (60·2–72·0) for unsafe water source. We separated risk factors into three groups according to trajectory over time: those with a decreasing attributable burden, due largely to declining risk exposure (eg, diet high in trans-fat and household air pollution) but also to proportionally smaller child and youth populations (eg, child and maternal malnutrition); those for which the burden increased moderately in spite of declining risk exposure, due largely to population ageing (eg, smoking); and those for which the burden increased considerably due to both increasing risk exposure and population ageing (eg, ambient particulate matter air pollution, high BMI, high FPG, and high SBP). Interpretation: Substantial progress has been made in reducing the global disease burden attributable to a range of risk factors, particularly those related to maternal and child health, WaSH, and household air pollution. Maintaining efforts to minimise the impact of these risk factors, especially in low SDI locations, is necessary to sustain progress. Successes in moderating the smoking-related burden by reducing risk exposure highlight the need to advance policies that reduce exposure to other leading risk factors such as ambient particulate matter air pollution and high SBP. Troubling increases in high FPG, high BMI, and other risk factors related to obesity and metabolic syndrome indicate an urgent need to identify and implement interventions. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. Methods: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model—a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates—with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality—which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. Findings: The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2–100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1–290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1–211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4–48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3–37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7–9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles. Interpretation: Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Long-Baseline Neutrino Facility (LBNF) and Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE) Conceptual Design Report Volume 2: The Physics Program for DUNE at LBNF

The Physics Program for the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE) at the Fermilab Long-Baseline Neutrino Facility (LBNF) is described